I thought it was worth starting a thread looking forward a bit more than existing threads. Not because I am giving up on 2020, but because I want to think a bit more concretely about the positive side of the Mookie trade: where it leaves them for 2021 and beyond. The idea is to think about how the team can set itself up for longer term success with the moves it makes over the next calendar year (spring training, during the season, next offseason, whenever).
Needs:
SP
Bullpen
1B
CF
Any holes created by other moves
Trade chips:
One of Benintendi/Verdugo
Chavis
Maybe Peraza (if he can return to 2018 from and Downs progresses quickly)
Maybe JBJ
Workman
Barnes
One of Casas/Dalbec
Salary dump candidates:
JDM
Eovaldi
There is a lot that's still wide open, but this leaves me optimistic about the team's future. I think it's not hard to see how this team could return to something like a 93-win level in 2021, and stay there for a few years. They have some flexibility in how they do that too. They have a good enough offensive core that they can get by with below average offense from 1B/DH in the next few years. Pitching is the bigger problem, but that hinges a lot on what Sale can do. Before the trade, they really had little option but to try and constantly restock through FA, which would not have played out well even if they ignored the cap.
Here is what I see as an ideal plan. This is where things get totally speculative of course, since it's not clear whether any of these are actually options:
- Try to trade/dump JDM, or hope he opts out. With him off the books, they would have a ton of money to work with.
- Use that money to sign Mookie. This particular move has been discussed elsewhere ad nauseum, but I think Mookie is the kind of premium talent you pay for, and if the rest of this plan works out (or something like it) they may be able to sign him and stay under the cap with a complete and competitive team.
- Look to trade for a #2/3 SP or on a team-friendly deal, arb, or a comparable ML ready prospect. A package based around one of Benintendi/Verdugo along with maybe Chavis and/or (if you have to) Dalbec/Casas should be able to get someone worthwhile.
- Fill CF; resign JBJ or find a way to approximate his production for less money.
- Shop in the scrap heap for 1B/DH, 6th/7th SPs with some upside, bench spots, and bullpen arms.
- Just hope Sale returns to form, Eovaldi can stay on the mound as a serviceable 4/5, and Perez pitches well enough that his option looks like a good deal. Not really anything else you can do here.
- Look into extending Erod and Devers
- Trade Workman/JBJ/other free agents for low-level lottery tickets at the deadline if they aren't competing. Fill in the farm a little. If they are buyers at the deadline, buy players fitting this basic plan rather than rentals.
- Tweak around the margins based on details.
Needs:
SP
Bullpen
1B
CF
Any holes created by other moves
Trade chips:
One of Benintendi/Verdugo
Chavis
Maybe Peraza (if he can return to 2018 from and Downs progresses quickly)
Maybe JBJ
Workman
Barnes
One of Casas/Dalbec
Salary dump candidates:
JDM
Eovaldi
There is a lot that's still wide open, but this leaves me optimistic about the team's future. I think it's not hard to see how this team could return to something like a 93-win level in 2021, and stay there for a few years. They have some flexibility in how they do that too. They have a good enough offensive core that they can get by with below average offense from 1B/DH in the next few years. Pitching is the bigger problem, but that hinges a lot on what Sale can do. Before the trade, they really had little option but to try and constantly restock through FA, which would not have played out well even if they ignored the cap.
Here is what I see as an ideal plan. This is where things get totally speculative of course, since it's not clear whether any of these are actually options:
- Try to trade/dump JDM, or hope he opts out. With him off the books, they would have a ton of money to work with.
- Use that money to sign Mookie. This particular move has been discussed elsewhere ad nauseum, but I think Mookie is the kind of premium talent you pay for, and if the rest of this plan works out (or something like it) they may be able to sign him and stay under the cap with a complete and competitive team.
- Look to trade for a #2/3 SP or on a team-friendly deal, arb, or a comparable ML ready prospect. A package based around one of Benintendi/Verdugo along with maybe Chavis and/or (if you have to) Dalbec/Casas should be able to get someone worthwhile.
- Fill CF; resign JBJ or find a way to approximate his production for less money.
- Shop in the scrap heap for 1B/DH, 6th/7th SPs with some upside, bench spots, and bullpen arms.
- Just hope Sale returns to form, Eovaldi can stay on the mound as a serviceable 4/5, and Perez pitches well enough that his option looks like a good deal. Not really anything else you can do here.
- Look into extending Erod and Devers
- Trade Workman/JBJ/other free agents for low-level lottery tickets at the deadline if they aren't competing. Fill in the farm a little. If they are buyers at the deadline, buy players fitting this basic plan rather than rentals.
- Tweak around the margins based on details.