This is going to be one of the most popular upset picks of the year. Providence has been a metrics midget this season, and the lines tend to be built off of the metrics to start. Why have their metrics been so poor? Largely, it’s because despite going 25-5, their losses have been absolute disasters. They lost by 18 to a bad Virginia team early in the season, by 32 to Marquette midseason and by 27 to Creighton in the Big East tournament. On top of that, most of their wins have been close. They had 10 wins within five points.
Along with Providence’s struggles, South Dakota State has been on fire of late and one of the most impressive offensive mid-majors in a long time. Honestly, they probably should have been a 12-seed instead of Richmond. Led by
Baylor Scheierman, a 6-foot-6 point wing who often runs a lot of their offense, the Jackrabbits are a top-15 offense nationally according to KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric. They hit 44 percent from 3, had the highest effective field goal percentage in college basketball, and do not turn the ball over. The team hasn’t lost since Dec. 15, but they also haven’t played a single top-140 opponent in that time, either. In total, most advanced metrics only have this as about a 20-to-30 slot ranking difference in terms of the two teams, a very close difference for a 4-13 matchup.
So yeah, it’s easy to see why the Jackrabbits are going to be a team to watch this week. But every year, I seem to make money zagging while everyone is on a popular 12-5 or 13-4 upset pick. And this seems to be the one this year where I’m against consensus, despite the obvious analytical warning signs that are absolutely real, and should be acknowledged. I think the analytics on Providence have been a bit off this year in large part due to their average margin of loss. I see them more as a solid top-25 team as opposed to a top-50 team. Their guards are really tough, and reliable — particularly in late game situations.
Jared Bynum has really improved as a shooter and loves having the ball in his hands late. But there are two specific ways that I like this for Providence.
First, Providence has one of the best wing defenders in the country in
Justin Minaya, the Big East Defensive Player of the Year and an egregious snub for the Naismith Defensive Player of the Year watchlist. Scheierman is going to have his hands full dealing with Minaya, and my bet here is that we see Scheierman struggle a bit more than we’ve seen recently. Minaya’s length and toughness has a real chance to bother him. I’d bet that’s a matchup South Dakota State hunts to avoid, but I’m not sure they will.
Second, South Dakota State has actually been kind of a nightmare on defense this year. The offense is great, the defense is not. They are currently ranked outside of the top 200 in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom, and the number of teams to have achieved upsets with a defense that poor are pretty low. Really, it’s just Oral Roberts beating Ohio State last year. In fact, the last team prior to Oral Roberts even ranked outside of the top 150 in adjusted defensive efficiency to pull off a 12-5 upset or greater was Norfolk State back in 2012. This game is going to have to look a lot like that one for South Dakota State to have a chance, as Norfolk made 52 percent of its 3s and averaged 1.33 points per possession. But also, led by longtime NBA big man Kyle O’Quinn that year, Norfolk was able to grab 13 offensive rebounds in that game. South Dakota State does not really hit the glass like that, and actually has a significant mismatch issue inside.
Nate Watson is a 6-foot-10 monster on the interior, and I don’t really believe South Dakota State has anyone who can manage him.
This Jackrabbits team is super fun, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them come out fearless and give Providence a real run early. But I’m betting on one of the most experienced teams in the country in Providence — one with a proven track record of coming through in late game situations — to come out with a win. On top of that, anyone who has seen how excited the Providence community is about this team knows that this thing is likely going to feel like.
The Pick: Providence -2.