This past week, Red Sox batters had their work cut out for them stepping in against two Twins pitchers ranked in the MLB top 25 (based on fWAR). I thought it would be interesting to take a look at how the Sox had performed thus far against comparably-effective pitchers over the course of this season.
To date, the Sox have played 17 games against 11 different MLB top 25 pitchers based on fWAR: 3 each against the Yankees' Severino (ranked 7th) and the Rays' Snell (ranked 22nd); 2 each against the Twins' Berrios (ranked 17th) and the Twins' Gibson (ranked 23rd); and 1 each against the Nationals' Scherzer (ranked 4th), the Astros' Verlander (ranked 5th), the Astros' Cole (ranked 9th), the Angels' Skaggs (ranked 12th), the Mariners' Paxton (ranked 14th), the Mariners' Gonzales (ranked 18th), and the Astros' Morton (ranked 19th).
On a weighted average basis, the Sox have faced a 3.1 fWAR pitcher across those 17 games. Interestingly enough, 12 of the 17 games have been on the road.
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0
In those 17 games, the Sox have gone 9-8. They have scored a total of 80 runs in 150 innings (an average of 4.7 runs per game and 0.53 runs per inning) and given up 59 runs in 147 innings (an average of 3.5 runs per game and 0.40 runs per inning). Furthermore, only 4 of those 17 games were started by Sale (he went 2-1 in 4 outings). Porcello started 6 games, Price 3 games, Pomeranz 2 games, and B. Johnson and Eovaldi 1 game apiece.
Against the vaunted opposing starters listed above, the Sox have scored 47 runs in 98.7 innings (an average of 2.8 runs per outing and 0.48 runs per inning). Those opposing starters have gone 5-7, averaged 5.8 IP per start, a 4.29 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP with 9.9 SO/9, 2.8 BB/9, 8.7 H/9 and a mere 0.8 HR/9. The Sox offense has been held scoreless by only 3 of the 17 opposing starters (Snell, Snell and Severino).
Sox batters have slashed .309 / .376 / .685 against the fWAR top 25 starters. In 17 games and 98.7 innings, they've managed to scratch out 95 hits (only 30 extra base hits -- 9 HR's, 19 doubles and 2 triples), 31 walks and 6 HBP. Interestingly enough, they've forced the opposing starters to throw over 17 pitches per inning (4 pitches per batter faced). They've also gone 8 for 8 in stolen base attempts.
We've seen over the course of the season that the Sox offense is ferocious when it's not chasing sliders out of the strike zone. Against the MLB's top pitchers, the ferocity has been substantially tempered. Nevertheless, Sox batters have grinded out at bats to support their own capable starting pitching on the way to above average win/loss results.
Hopefully, this approach bodes well down the road later this season.
To date, the Sox have played 17 games against 11 different MLB top 25 pitchers based on fWAR: 3 each against the Yankees' Severino (ranked 7th) and the Rays' Snell (ranked 22nd); 2 each against the Twins' Berrios (ranked 17th) and the Twins' Gibson (ranked 23rd); and 1 each against the Nationals' Scherzer (ranked 4th), the Astros' Verlander (ranked 5th), the Astros' Cole (ranked 9th), the Angels' Skaggs (ranked 12th), the Mariners' Paxton (ranked 14th), the Mariners' Gonzales (ranked 18th), and the Astros' Morton (ranked 19th).
On a weighted average basis, the Sox have faced a 3.1 fWAR pitcher across those 17 games. Interestingly enough, 12 of the 17 games have been on the road.
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0
In those 17 games, the Sox have gone 9-8. They have scored a total of 80 runs in 150 innings (an average of 4.7 runs per game and 0.53 runs per inning) and given up 59 runs in 147 innings (an average of 3.5 runs per game and 0.40 runs per inning). Furthermore, only 4 of those 17 games were started by Sale (he went 2-1 in 4 outings). Porcello started 6 games, Price 3 games, Pomeranz 2 games, and B. Johnson and Eovaldi 1 game apiece.
Against the vaunted opposing starters listed above, the Sox have scored 47 runs in 98.7 innings (an average of 2.8 runs per outing and 0.48 runs per inning). Those opposing starters have gone 5-7, averaged 5.8 IP per start, a 4.29 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP with 9.9 SO/9, 2.8 BB/9, 8.7 H/9 and a mere 0.8 HR/9. The Sox offense has been held scoreless by only 3 of the 17 opposing starters (Snell, Snell and Severino).
Sox batters have slashed .309 / .376 / .685 against the fWAR top 25 starters. In 17 games and 98.7 innings, they've managed to scratch out 95 hits (only 30 extra base hits -- 9 HR's, 19 doubles and 2 triples), 31 walks and 6 HBP. Interestingly enough, they've forced the opposing starters to throw over 17 pitches per inning (4 pitches per batter faced). They've also gone 8 for 8 in stolen base attempts.
We've seen over the course of the season that the Sox offense is ferocious when it's not chasing sliders out of the strike zone. Against the MLB's top pitchers, the ferocity has been substantially tempered. Nevertheless, Sox batters have grinded out at bats to support their own capable starting pitching on the way to above average win/loss results.
Hopefully, this approach bodes well down the road later this season.
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