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2018 Dolphins: Back to Gasics

Discussion in 'Blinded by the Lombardis: Patriots Forum' started by sodenj5, Feb 5, 2018.

  1. sodenj5

    sodenj5 Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Wanted to start the new Fins thread. Free agency is on the horizon followed by the draft. Jarvis Landry is Miami’s biggest question mark heading into free agency.

    I personally think they either franchise tag him or let him walk. I think they’re too far apart on a long term deal, and I don’t blame Miami for trying to draw a line in the sand. I love Landry, his toughness, his fire, but would not love paying him 15 million/season the next 4–5 years.
     
  2. sodenj5

    sodenj5 Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    One other note that I don’t recall being touched on in the 2017 thread: Miami has had a pretty large turnover in their coaching staff so far this offseason.

    Dowell Loggains is the new offensive coordinator. He worked directly with Gase in Chicago. He takes over for Clyde Christensen who has moved into a personnel/player development role with the team. Gase will still call the plays on Sundays, but Gase brings in a guy he knows and trusts from his past.

    RB coach Danny Barrett was fired and Miami brought in Eric Studesville from Denver, who again worked with Gase previously. Studesville has a ton of experience and seems to be well regarded.

    Jeremiah Washburn comes back to Miami after one season in Chicago. He will be the new offensive line coach, replacing a literal coke addict.

    Miami also hires Kris Kocurek from Detroit. He coached Suh and has extensive experience in the Wide 9 scheme Miami employs upfront.

    One of the more surprising fires was getting rid of Lou Anorumo, who was Miami’s long time DB coach. Although the DBs had major communication breakdowns early in the season, it seemed like guys like Howard, McCain, and Tankersley all took positive steps forward in the last year or so. He gets replaced by Tony Oden from Detroit.

    That’s a lot of coaching changes in one offseason. There are rumblings that Miami may consider bringing in John Fox as a defensive consultant if he doesn’t find a coaching or coordinating gig that he likes. He obviously has a relationship with Gase and Matt Burke could likely use the guidance of an experienced guy like Fox for a season.

    I think in general it’s a good thing. Miami took a step backwards last year and you need to evaluate all facets of the organization as to why that happened. They obviously felt there was a coaching deficiency and have addressed it.
     
  3. sodenj5

    sodenj5 Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    After Miami places the franchise tag on Jarvis Landry, news came out yesterday that Miami has given Landry permission to seek a trade.

    I obviously have mixed emotions about Landry leaving. I love Landry, and his fire, passion, and he’s been a very good player for Miami for four years... but in no way should Miami be paying him 14/15 million dollars per season.

    I believe they’re making the difficult, but correct decision.
     
  4. Clears Cleaver

    Clears Cleaver Lil' Bill SoSH Member

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    Using nearly 50% of your cap on Landry, Suh, Tannehill, branch and Alonso is utterly idiotic. Suh is the only one of those players who is in top 10 at his position.

    Alonso is bad and the others besides Suh are JAGs.

    I hate that the front office sucks. But reality is they need to turnover qb, oline, dline, linebackers.
     
  5. sodenj5

    sodenj5 Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Miami allegedly offered him a contract of 13 million/season which his agent countered. 13 million is still way too much. Keenan Allen recently signed a contract for 11.25 million/season. Landry isn’t as good as Allen.

    It’s partly on the front office mishandling other contracts, but a big piece of this is Landry looking to set the market for a slot receiver. Someone like Cleveland will throw a truck of money at him because they can, but no team looking to seriously contend will look at Landry for 15 million/year like he’s asking for.
     
  6. Clears Cleaver

    Clears Cleaver Lil' Bill SoSH Member

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    Completely agree.
     
  7. slamminsammya

    slamminsammya Member SoSH Member

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    Allen's a great player, but isn't there a big difference between the contexts? Phil Rivers is a maybe HOF'er. Ryan Tannehill, Jay Cutler, and Matt Moore?
     
  8. Clears Cleaver

    Clears Cleaver Lil' Bill SoSH Member

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    Fish are trading for Robert Quinn. 5th round pick for effective but one dimensional pass rusher who is due $22m next two years.

    So they now have $45 dedicated to Quinn, Suh and Branch. How much does wake make? My goodness. I give up. Should have traded him for Landry.
     
  9. sodenj5

    sodenj5 Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Allen’s career Y/Rec is better than Landry’s best year, and his last season blew away any season of Landry’s. Landry is a durable, volume based producer. I don’t think that has anything to do with the QB.
     
  10. rymflaherty

    rymflaherty Member SoSH Member

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    I was going to suggest - “Same as it ever was” or something to that extent for the thread title.
    There’s no clever pun, but sadly I think it’s most accurate. You could interchange the list of team deficiencies/off season needs from any year over the past decade or so because it would be virtually the same.

    It’s that track record tha has me cynical about the Quinn deal...trading a draft pick (any pick) for an oft-injured veteran with a high salary (who’s had a quality team give up on him) is exactly the type of move this team always try’s to make, rarely works out, and what helps keep them in the perpetual state or purgatory, which is mediocre in the NFL.

    I have been happy though that they seem to be exercising some restraint with Landry.
    He is a complicated situation - I certainly appreciate what he does and would like him to stay a Dolphin, but I’m also not sure the numbers he’s demanding make sense long term.
    Basically for this offense to get where they need to be, I don’t think Landry can be (or should be) a true #1, so if you pay him like one it’s going to be difficult to build the team they will need.
     
  11. sodenj5

    sodenj5 Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I think Quinn is the replacement/insurance for Branch. If Branch falls on his face again, Miami can easily cut him after 2018 and move on. Also, I think Wake is moved to more of a pass rush specialist role to help keep his snaps down, keep him fresh, and help maximize his impact.

    Quinn is still young, and he hasn’t been super dominant for a few years, but moving back to a 4-3 DE position might help rejuvenate him. If not, Miami can again move on from him pretty easily. He isn’t signed long term and Miami essentially traded the pick they got for Ajayi to bring Quinn in.

    Again, that doesn’t speak greatly about the FO’s evaluation skills if they have to bring in an insurance policy for Branch after just handing him a bigger extension a year ago.
     
  12. sodenj5

    sodenj5 Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Weeeeelp, fuck.

    Miami trades Jarvis Landry to Cleveland for a 2018 4th and a 2019 7th.

    Cleveland always made sense because of their huge cap space and the number of draft picks they had stockpiled. The Landry trade and contract are a small blip to them.

    Armando Salguero speculated that the Landry trade is a precursor to Miami being active in FA. Clearing his salary, Timmons, and Julius Thomas clears some space for Miami to make some moves. Also, if Miami is going to be active in free agency, they likely would not net a comp pick for Landry if he were to just walk away. So the value of a 2018 4th is pretty close to a 2019 3rd round comp pick, plus Miami gets the pick a year earlier and they can pursue free agents without worrying about hurting their compensation value.

    All that being said, it still sucks to lose Landry. I actually that that between Stills, Grant, and Carroo, and possibly drafting a TE, Miami can replace his production on the field pretty well. It’s the juice on the field Miami is going to miss. The dude absolutely gave 100% to Miami for four years and I’m glad I got to root for him. Now he gets to sign a life-changing deal, and I would never hold that against someone like Landry, who fought for every dollar he’s about to get.
     
  13. Ed Hillel

    Ed Hillel Wants to be startin somethin SoSH Member

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    So Miami traded him for lower than comp value? I guess it was worth the risk to see if they could get better, but there was also risk they’d get stuck with him at that salary or he’d eat their free agency money. Ended up roughly even I suppose, as Cleveland will likely pick high as always.
     
  14. pappymojo

    pappymojo Member SoSH Member

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    As Soden pointed out, no guarantee that they would have received a comp pick if they didnt use the tag on Landry.
     
  15. rymflaherty

    rymflaherty Member SoSH Member

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    I’m more or less numb to the Landry deal.
    As I was insinuating in my previous post, I understood both sides, so I wasn’t going to get too worked up either way.

    It also probably helps that earlier in the day I was reading an article that stated anything more than a 4th for Landry would be a small miracle (considering the contact demands he’d have) so that set realistic expectations, and made the return seem fair.

    It’s really going to come down to how they use the extra cap room now. Do they get 2-3 quality starters with the money they would have spent on Landry? It’s possible. But I certainly would see why anyone would be skeptical.

    I did see a tweet yesterday from a Browns fan? Writer? @Reflog_18 I thought it was fitting and kind of summed up my feelings toward Landry
    “I like Jarvis Landry - if you need 5 yards, Jarvis Landry will get you 7 yards. If you need 10 yards, Jarvis Landry will get you 7 yards”
     
  16. pdaj

    pdaj Member SoSH Member

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    I'm all for dumping on Mike Tannenbaum and his crew for his many shitty decisions (See: Alonso, Branch), but the Ajayi and Landry deals have Gase written all over it. Miami showed their hand in both cases; as a result, Tannenbaum got what he could for both, under the circumstances. The even shittier version of Miami's FO of old would have let Landry go for nothing. So, that's a plus.

    I like the trade for Miami. As was mentioned, while a strong possibility, the 3rd round compensation pick wasn't a certainty. I'll take the 4th now, for sure. Landry was in Miami's plans until he price himself out. Even when you add up all the intangibles, he's just not worth 13-16 per. Whoever signs him will likely be cutting him in 2-3 seasons.

    I think Gase soured on Landry, especially following the Buffalo debacle. He runs hot on and off the field and just can't seem to turn it off when necessary. The 15-yarders got old. The end of the season ejection was the straw that broke the coach's back. I, for one, will not miss the ball spin after every freakin' 1st down reception. That said, I have no ill will vs. Landry. He brought it for all 4 of his seasons.

    I'm still a fan of Gase, but he's a hot head, too. He also has "his guys," and it seems to affect his evaluation of those players, i.e. Pouncey, Bushrod, etc.

    I really have no idea what Miami does next -- it seems as though they could go an array of directions.
     
    #16 pdaj, Mar 10, 2018
    Last edited: Mar 10, 2018
  17. Clears Cleaver

    Clears Cleaver Lil' Bill SoSH Member

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    The ideal direction is to tank. Trade SUh and Wake. Drop Alonso. Trade James. Etc. there is nothing they can do to be competitive.
     
  18. pdaj

    pdaj Member SoSH Member

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    I think they can rebuild without "tanking". It doesn't have to be completely blown up.

    That stated, a 26 million cap # for a player that can be completed schemed out of significantly impacting a game is bad football business.
     
  19. pdaj

    pdaj Member SoSH Member

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    The whispers of a possible Tanny trade are getting a little lounder, as a couple of teams (NYG and Denver) are looking for a QB that can step in right away. Denver makes the most sense. Vance knows Tanny, who now has one of the most QB-friendly contracts in the league.

    If Tannehill is traded, I'd love to see Bridgewater signed on a short-term deal (2 years, 8-10 per?), with a guy like Baker drafted with the 5th overall.
     
  20. rymflaherty

    rymflaherty Member SoSH Member

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    Have a draft like the 2017 Saints?

    Now we can all have a good laugh at how unlikely that seems...but still, going from “blah” to competitive has somehow been obtainable for other franchises.
     
  21. sodenj5

    sodenj5 Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I see no way Tannehill gets traded. His value is low since he’s missed about 1.5 seasons now. He’s also signed to what is now a cheap contract for a veteran QB and Miami can cut him next year or the following year with zero cap implications.

    If Miami really decides to make a splash and draft someone like Baker Mayfield in the first round, it makes all the sense in the world to keep Tannehill in 2018, let him establish value, groom the young QB, and then spin Tannehill for picks in 2019 when the market isn’t completely saturated with FAs and draftable QBs.
     
    #21 sodenj5, Mar 11, 2018
    Last edited: Mar 12, 2018
  22. sodenj5

    sodenj5 Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Miami is going to cut Ndamukong Suh, likely on Wednesday.

    Suh was never going to justify his contract in Miami, however he did continue to play at a Pro Bowl level all three season he was here, which for a free agent signing at any position is rare, nevermind playing DT for as many snaps as Suh does. Dude is truly a physical freak of nature.

    Believe it or not, not signing Landry to a monster contract and cutting Suh loose, even though we’ll have some cap tied up in 2018 and 2019 to do so, gives me hope for the future. A good team can’t have sustainable success paying a DT 20 million/season. A good team can’t pay a slot receiver 15 million/season. These moves might sting this year, but I actually think Miami is thinking beyond a one or two year window for once.
     
  23. pdaj

    pdaj Member SoSH Member

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    Or 26 million.

    Hey, I loved having Suh in Miami, and his early cap #s worked. But as you mentioned, paying a DT such a significant amount of money just isn't an effective away to build a successful team. The Dolphins were never an elite unit with Suh on board, not even in any one particular area. The $17 million saved needs to be used in other areas, more effectively. But is Mikey T. capable of doing that? I'm sensing a bit of a shift in influence, with Gase gaining more roster control. We'll see.

    I still think Tannehill getting dealt is in play -- 50/50-ish. If Miami's going to "blow it up," gaining assets and cap relief (from $17 million to rookie salary) could be part of. Like I mentioned before, adding a guy like Bridgewater would be sneaky good. Part of me thinks Gase would love to keep Tannehill and draft a guy like Baker, but I don't see any of the top arms falling to 11. How else do you get to the 4-5 range?

    If anyone else should be part of this purge, it's Pouncey. Sadly, I think he's cooked, and almost all of his 11 million salary is non-guaranteed. Gase has often said that he's "one of his guys," but h's no longer worth that price.

    Miami needs to get A LOT faster on defense. I hope that is the top priority in the draft/FA period.
     
  24. sodenj5

    sodenj5 Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I think you’re right regarding Gase’s influence. He’s had his fingerprints on some interesting draft choices (Kenyan Drake and Jakeem Grant come to mind immediately) and I think he might not have the ultimate say on the roster, but he’s going to help reshape the roster so it’s more in line with today’s game.

    Also, FWIW, nearly every mock I’ve seen has a QB falling to Miami at 11, but that changes if Minny really signs Cousins. That would put Cleveland, Denver, NYJ, and probably the NYG as QB needy teams ahead of Miami. Most mocks have the Giants taking Saquon but I think that’s smoke so that Cleveland goes Saquon and they get whatever QB they want.

    I think if Miami really wants to go QB, they’d have to trade with someone like Indy to get in front of the Jets and Broncos. If they’re content to sit and see if someone falls to them at 11, I would be ok with that as well. They’re going to get someone good this year unless they completely botch it.
     
  25. pdaj

    pdaj Member SoSH Member

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    Agreed. With at least 3 and possibly 4 QBs likely drafted ahead of Miami, they're at a prime spot to nab an impact, plug-and-play contributor.

    It's possible this "culture shift" includes Tannehill being at the helm. He truly seems to be the perfect teammate, and his talent/cost is valuable. Who knows, maybe a guy like Baker falls to 11, and the QB situation is good to go for a while.

    Can you believe that the draft is still 7 weeks away? Brutal.
     
  26. PaulinMyrBch

    PaulinMyrBch Don't touch his dog food Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    With Suh on the Dolphins, I've been in "just make it through those games healthy" for years. I hope Suh goes back to the NFC or at least is out of the AFC East. That is one dude I don't trust. The film on Suh is out there, and I may be over reacting, but I always feared he could go off in the moment and really do something dirty if he wanted. Both Dolphins games have been hold your breath style games ever since he arrived. Not sad to see him go.
     
  27. sodenj5

    sodenj5 Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Not 100% positive, but I’m pretty sure Jarvis Landry racked up more personal fouls in the last 3 years than Suh did. Landry also got ejected from his last game as a Dolphin.

    Suh’s reputation is what it is, but I don’t really recall him doing anything out of bounds while in Miami.
     
  28. lithos2003

    lithos2003 Member SoSH Member

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    I mean this was last year..
    [​IMG]
     
  29. sodenj5

    sodenj5 Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Lol. There is that. Suh claimed self defense. That game was chippy the whole way. That’s the game Kiko concussed Flacco and a small brawl broke out.
     
  30. rymflaherty

    rymflaherty Member SoSH Member

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    Pardon me if this is an over-simplification and I’m missing something that’s deep beyond the surface level here...but...
    Why the Fu*k would you give Albert Wilson 8m dollars a year?!?!
     
  31. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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    Who was it that said elsewhere they can't wait to see who the Dolphins sign to an overpriced deal only to cut in a year or two? Same as it ever was, indeed.
     
  32. pdaj

    pdaj Member SoSH Member

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    It's more than I expected, but I'll wait to see how the deal is structured. Wilson is a guy with whoa speed, who all the analytic guys love (PFF ranked him 24th). Supposedly Top-3 slot WR in efficiency who also finished 3rd in the league in forced missed tackles. (Landry was 2nd.) Initially, I thought he'd make 5.5-6/per -- but I like the short-term deal. I'll wait for more analysis from the sources I most respect, but initially, Wilson looks like a guy who'll fit in very well, for 1/2 the price of Landry. With Stills, Wilson, Grant on the field, speed will not be an issue.
     
  33. pdaj

    pdaj Member SoSH Member

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  34. rymflaherty

    rymflaherty Member SoSH Member

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    Thanks.
    The analytic stuff is intriguing, so that is the kind of stuff I was looking for to give me some hope.
    The highlights, less so, since that Week 17 game against the Broncos is close to the equivalent of a pre-season highlight reel.
     
  35. sodenj5

    sodenj5 Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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  36. pdaj

    pdaj Member SoSH Member

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    If you can't beat e'm? He's always killed us; glad he's now on our side. Interested to see the numbers; I'm hoping it's a 2-year deal. Parker, Stills, Amendola, Wilson, Grant. There's been talk that Gase wanted to specifically target "smart, committed players, and that he'd prefer not to run the ball. That's a lot of options in the passing game.

    NOW, what if Dion Lewis is added to pair with Drake? THEN, the offense gets really interesting.
     
  37. sodenj5

    sodenj5 Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I think this spells the end for Parker. Gase hasn’t made it a secret he doesn’t like his work ethic.
     
  38. rymflaherty

    rymflaherty Member SoSH Member

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    I’m not as high on Amendola, age and availability more than anything, but I can buy into that contract and why you’d want to bring a guy like that in.

    Also, today further puts the Landry situation into perspective - you basically wind up with Wilson, Amendola and a couple million left over in place of paying Landry. Even though I’m unsure about Wilson, when you add the pick, I think I prefer the flexibility and depth over the big contract to Landry, but it’s interesting to think about which path is the better use of resources.
     
  39. rymflaherty

    rymflaherty Member SoSH Member

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    ESPN/Barnwell not a big fan of the moves.
    Both getting D+ grades.
    I don’t rely on ESPN all that often for that sort of thing, so not sure how good/accurate he typically is in this stuff, but I was looking for some outside perspective that wasn’t a glorified blog...

    He describes the Dolphins as, “The Guy who’s car wont start who went to the auto repair shop but just spent his last 35 bucks on air fresheners”

    Both blurbs are pretty damning critiques of the organization. It’s the initial cynical thoughts I had turned up to 11...maming me wonder if I shouldn’t have softened some and allowed myself some hope lol

    http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...trades-signings-moves-offseason-bill-barnwell
     
  40. sodenj5

    sodenj5 Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    This is my complete gut feel based on what I’ve seen play out the last few days:

    Parker and #11 overall to the Colts for #3 to select Baker Mayfield.

    Gase loves Mayfield. He’s the prototype for the type of guy he wants. Complete football grinder, fiery, a natural born leader. Miami has been openly flirting with Mayfield for weeks now.

    Gase hates Parker. The Colts need a WR pretty badly. Outside of TY Hilton, they have next to nothing in terms of pass catchers. They would get Parker for two seasons.

    Amendola is a piece of the puzzle. Stills, Grant, Wilson, and Amendola make up a pretty good receiving corps. I think they also look to go TE in round 2 of the draft.
     
  41. shoosh77

    shoosh77 Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    I’m no draft value expert but I think you may be a touch off if you think Parker moves you from 11 to 3.
     
  42. Shelterdog

    Shelterdog Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I'm not sure Parker and 11 moves you to 9.
     
  43. sodenj5

    sodenj5 Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Cordy Glenn moves Buffalo from 20 to 12. It might take a couple of other picks to make it work, but I think that’s the foundation for the trade.

    Miami also went from 12 to 3 to draft Dion Jordan and it cost them the 42nd pick. I don’t think the general basis is that far off.
     
  44. shoosh77

    shoosh77 Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Well, I could trade my house and Volvo for a mansion with some other stuff thrown in. I think the other stuff is pretty important to that, and not sure the Volvo matters much.

    Cordy Glenn is an upper tier LT albeit with health risks, Parker is a meh 3rd I would say. Also moving up to to 12 from 20 is not the same as jumping to the top 3.
     
  45. sodenj5

    sodenj5 Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Who is also making a ton of money. Parker is still talented, although inconsistent, and dirt cheap for at least two years. He instantly would be their second best receiver.

    Again, it would likely take some additional sorting out, but I think that if Miami truly fell in love with Mayfield, they have the ammo to move up with Parker being a central piece of that.
     
  46. pdaj

    pdaj Member SoSH Member

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    I've pulled a 180. I just don't see a trade-up in store for a QB after today's moves. It seems more like an attempt to supply Tannehill with weapons. Additionally, Ju'Waun James was extended for his 5th year -- which didn't come cheaply. As a Top 10 pass protector, that will certainly help to keep #17 upright.

    Now, if Mayfield falls to 11 for some unexpected reason, then hey, I wouldn't be shocked to see his name called. Otherwise, I think Miami's going to have a defensive focus in the draft, and look to complete for a playoff spot next season.
     
  47. Super Nomario

    Super Nomario Member SoSH Member

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    It's not linear. Going from 12 to 3 is way more expensive than going from 20 to 12. Later in the draft you'll see teams give up a 6th or something to move from 150 to 142 or whatever.

    EDIT: Based on the Jimmy Johnson chart, #20 is worth 850, #12 is worth 1200, #3 is worth 2200. So the difference is more than twice as much. Based on the JJ chart, it should cost pick #55 to move from 20 to 12; it should cost pick #16 to move from 12 to 3.

    That was a trash draft though. If the draft is bad at the top you can get a good deal like that, but not in an ordinary year.
     
  48. SMU_Sox

    SMU_Sox loves his fluffykins SoSH Member

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    Super Nomario how do you feel about this year’s draft? Hope that is ok to ask given your other commitments. If you don’t want to answer that I completely understand.
     
  49. sodenj5

    sodenj5 Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Miami restructures Tannehill’s deal. He was pretty much a lock to start in 2018, but this also suggests Miami is looking to keep him beyond 2018. His cap hit wouldn’t be crippling if they cut him, but with Suh’s dead money on the books, there’s only so much money you can eat while fielding a team.

    So scratch the Mayfield or QB in round 1 speculation. I think Parker may still get traded. I’m all aboard the Derwin James or Roquan Smith train.
     
  50. Clears Cleaver

    Clears Cleaver Lil' Bill SoSH Member

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    I hate the fact they are even trying to compete with these moves. Just admit you suck and dump anyone over 28 years old. It’s not tough. Trade respected veterans like Wake accumulate as many draft picks as you can.

    I’ve been saying this for years. But hey, they got lucky enough to make the playoffs and were competitive against a mediocre Steelers team for 8 minutes. Congrats.

    The browns will win a playoff game before Miami does. An expansion team would, too. Someone needs to sit the owner down and say : “this roster will never win. You’re below average at QB, oline, dline, awful at LB and average at WR and DB. There is no foundation here of talent off which to build. Take the massive cap hit now and look to 2020 and beyond.”
     

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