Yeah he snagged it high...def looked like it could have been intended for Cooks. Glad we didn't find out what happened if he let it go, because there was def a JAX defender there. Prob would have just been an incomplete pass, but if it wasn't (and we'll never find out obviously), that's a game-losing pick. Amendola made sure we didn't find out.
I remember looking at the line and thinking "I wonder if he sees a gap for a sneak".
Here it is
I wonder if that was a somewhat designed quasi-pick play, with Cooks 'blocking out' the DB over the top. Otherwise, it's a bit weird to have had Danny just under Cooks like that.
This is also the play where see the totally not a foul blocking a D-lineman in the back right out in the open.
great coverage and positioning I think.
I think that's the same play that Bortles got them on in their last drive of the game, except Bortles backshouldered it and Westbrook got it. Credit where it's due -- they saw that play and went back to it with a wrinkle and it worked. It was a weird play. Westbrook falls down and Gilmore doesn't try to touch him down -- maybe his momentum was going the other way or maybe he thought it was safer to just wait for him to get up and then tackle him.
It has to be an option route for DA. He's supposed to go across the middle, but with the corner (#22) sitting there, he bounces to the outside.
Great call. I think you're right. One reason Cooks didn't get open there might be that he turns all the way around to his left before cutting outside. A quicker change of direction would be a spin back to his right (as Edelman did), plus you then create a bigger target. Wonder if they coach him on that and we see it again in the SB. Cooks played great, though.
They do.
On this punt play, Hogan was in coverage. I thought that was strange, since I have never seen him on the punt return team before.
Cooks wasn't going to catch it because he had a DB on his back. Should have been DPI had Cooks been the target.
Yeah, strange play. Getting two receivers in one zone and making a defender choose one works pretty well - but with the routes so close, if someone had actually covered Amendola, Cooks wouldn't have been open (and yeah, the defensive back there definitely thought that was to Cooks).
I think that route is designed to be a zone beater. You run Cooks straight at Bouye (21) and see whether he can do the counter-intuitive thing, which is to let Cooks run right by him (trusting that the safety 29 will get him) and close hard on Dola at the sticks. If the corner is indecisive, Cooks basically clears him back enough and is also in the way of a break forward, giving Dola room to catch the ball at the sticks on an out. If the ball looks headed for Cooks, I think its because Brady wasn't fully accurate. But I'm pretty sure that's a play drawn up for Amendola that worked exactly as hoped.
I do player participation snap tracking for all the pats games for another site, I don't remember him ever being on the punt return unit before, but he's definitely been on kick return a decent amount. They had to change things up this week because Jones and Hollister are usually on the return unit.
Incredible that Bill sees something in Allen that us game threaders can't figure out. Mystifying.
Absolutely textbook tackle. He flipping stuck him.
Honest question - how many LBs can cover a RB on a wheel route? Is it out scheme or players or both?
PF-Ref (as you link) actually does a pretty good job, the WPA (or EPA) is the last column in the play-by-play. Here are the biggest plays by change in NE's win expectancy, everything above 8% plus the lowest point (3rd and 18), in chronological order:
Not many, and those that can are quicker than Van Noy and Flowers. If I had to guess it's some combination of both, but I don't think that's necessarily a flaw. It's a tough throw to make- to the sidelines, downfield, ball needs to be lofted and the throw needs solid touch on it- and it's generally not going to a WR or TE. It seems like the kind of throw that, as long as the defender is reasonably close, Belichick and Patricia wouldn't have a huge problem with the offense attempting, especially if it's a less than stellar QB attempting it. A completion there requires a very good throw. Maybe I'm reaching here but allowing offenses to attempt things that are out of their comfort zones feels like something they would be doing.
I’m having trouble wrapping my head around this.
He looks like a rocket with that beautiful launch angle. If I were good at photoshop, I could have fun with that.
I'm with you on this. There was one third down play earlier where Yeldin (I think) caught one crossing a couple yards short of the first and as he was cutting up Van Noy submarined him. Easily fell forward for the first so it was nice to see McCourty stand him up.
and a kicker who had missd only one FG all year. Though "stench of fear" might end up being edited out before the broadcast....
I might be wrong, but I don't think you can have negative win expectancy. So in the end, I suspect the 3D and 18 play only adds 7.8%, as originally posted.
