Question- Do teams typically overpay or have they in seasons past for players coming off a WS championship that enter free agency?
Right. But he sucked as recently as September. We'll find out when the Red Sox offer does or doesn't come in, but my point stands that it's dependent on their belief that he can potentially become their closer.Well if they see him as the same old Joe Kelly, sure. OTOH if they see him as a guy who they've unlocked and can manage to a season that looks more like Kelly at his best, that's another thing. I guess we'll find out when the offers come in.
I hope not. I’ll always be grateful for his contributions to the 2018 team but I don’t see him having that kind of sustained success. I say let someone else (over)pay.Dave Dombrowski said on MLB network that Eovaldi “is gonna be a rich man.” Do you think he’s ready to open the vault for Nate or is that what he expects to be the case on the open market with other teams bidding?
Well, there is this other team that has a starting SS who needs TJ surgery and may miss a bit of 2019. But I'm guessing the Red Sox aren't ever planning on trading X there.How many teams in GFIN mode next year need Xander Bogaerts? One: the Sox. We have one season left with the entire core intact. Dombrowski isn't going to let that pass.
Arizona has a window, last year of Goldschmidt but Pollock and Corbin may walk so perhaps they’re actually sellers.The only teams that would trade something of value for Xander in his walk year are teams in a GFIN mode. How many of those teams need a shortstop?
It feels like he and JBJ are brothers in streakiness. Anyone have stats on JBJ? Just going by month, JBJ's OPS were: .600, .599, .653, .801, .827, .826.Joe Kelly, 2018
- From Mar 29-May 31: 26.0 ip, 1.73 era, 0.77 whip, 9.7 k/9, 3.1 bb/9
- From June 1-Sep 30: 39.2 ip, 6.13 era, 1.74 whip, 9.1 k/9, 5.2 bb/9
- From Oct 1-Oct 28: 11.1 ip, 0.79 era, 0.71 whip, 10.3 k/9, 0.0 bb/9
Which one is the real Joe Kelly, and how much will someone pay to find out?
Even though expecting a walk from Kimbrel is always a good bet <rimshot>, I agree with this. Given the way things have gone for QO recipients who are even slightly borderline the past few years, I wouldn't be all that surprised if he took it.The qualifying offer now is around $18-19M, no? Does anyone think Kimbrel (or Ottavino, who I prefer) won’t take that for one year?
If you expect him to walk, you have to be very sure so he doesn’t blow the budget apart…
Are Kelly's struggles just feel? Or are they mechanical, related to tipping, or the product of confidence? The former would be something you could expect to keep happening, the latter may be more fixable going forward. Maybe he just has complex mechanics, although I can't see anything in them (usual disclaimer that I have zero qualifications here). Anyway, the Sox have the best view of Kelly's potential going forward, whether his struggles can be minimized or if they are too random to ever iron out. I hope he stays. Good Kelly is a perfect closer and a bit cheaper than the established guys. The tailing fastball he got Pederson with on Sunday is maybe my favorite pitch since Lowe's ALDS winner in 2003.It feels like he and JBJ are brothers in streakiness. Anyone have stats on JBJ? Just going by month, JBJ's OPS were: .600, .599, .653, .801, .827, .826.
Yep, agree.Right. But he sucked as recently as September. We'll find out when the Red Sox offer does or doesn't come in, but my point stands that it's dependent on their belief that he can potentially become their closer.
If he accepted and it created a budget problem, he'd have a trade market. I'd think a good amount of contending teams would be happy to trade something for Kimbrel at 1/$18. The Cubs, Cardinals, Braves and Phillies come to mind, or even a team like the A's, who could flip him for a haul at the deadline if they're out.The qualifying offer now is around $18-19M, no? Does anyone think Kimbrel (or Ottavino, who I prefer) won’t take that for one year?
If you expect him to walk, you have to be very sure so he doesn’t blow the budget apart…
Not a chance, they have plenty of OF options without Harper or Turner (Soto, Eaton, Taylor, Robles, Kendrick)The Nats could move Turner back to the outfield if Harper walks.
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Washington is incredibly deep in outfield talent. So much so they’re most likely trading Eaton even if Harper bounces.Not a chance, they have plenty of OF options without Harper or Turner (Soto, Eaton, Taylor, Robles, Kendrick)
They're all the real Joe Kelly.Joe Kelly, 2018
- From Mar 29-May 31: 26.0 ip, 1.73 era, 0.77 whip, 9.7 k/9, 3.1 bb/9
- From June 1-Sep 30: 39.2 ip, 6.13 era, 1.74 whip, 9.1 k/9, 5.2 bb/9
- From Oct 1-Oct 28: 11.1 ip, 0.79 era, 0.71 whip, 10.3 k/9, 0.0 bb/9
Which one is the real Joe Kelly, and how much will someone pay to find out?
I think it's quite likely that someone pays him believing that the first and last stretches there reflect his true level. Which would mean a significant offer, probably more than the Sox would like to spend. But obviously I could be wrong.They're all the real Joe Kelly.
That's why he is what he is.
What that's worth is the real question.
Other than one very cool, dramatic hit, Phillips showed nothing in his time with the Sox. And with Holt, Nunez, Lin, and even Hernandez, Phillips is extremely redundant.-I'd bring Phillips back as Pedey protection and a Devers back up. He wouldn't expect much playing time and would be really cheap. Holt is the obvious fall back option otherwise. Maybe Chavis could switch positions but it's entirely possible Pedey is just a 300 at bat guy max going forward.
Getting younger? You realize that only three teams in the AL had a younger average age than the Sox, and that we were by far the youngest of the Sox' four championship teams this century?This offseason should focus on them trying getting younger which will be extremely hard since they still lack trade chips for cost controlled players I'm fine with a lesser bridge year like they have done in the past.
FWIW, Chris Sale is 29, not 31Starting pitching depth:
Sale (Age 31) - signed through 2019, then UFA
Price (age 32) - if opts in signed through 2022 at $32M per year
Porcello (age 30) - signed through 2019 at $21, then UFA
Eovaldi (age 28) - UFA
EdRod (age 25) - three more years of control, arb eligible
Pomeranz (age 29) - UFA
Steven Wright (age 33) - two more years of control, arb eligible
I mean how do you NOT try to sign Eovaldi (or another FA starter, maybe someone who is more durable...Keuchel is that guy)? Even assuming Price stays, Sale is no lock to be healthy next year and is not a lock to be re-signed. Given there is not minor league starting depth at all, they almost have to sign a FA starter this year to protect themselves against losing Sale and Porcello next year. Unless you want the window to be 2019, then you let Sale, Porcello walk and use proceeds from that and Panda rolling off to pay the position players. I think this also means there is little chance they sign Kimbrel long-term, but offer QO as him on one-year is fine.
Other than Price and Wright, these pitchers are all right in the middle of what should be their primes. (Sale is 29 as BMHH pointed out)Starting pitching depth:
Sale (Age 31) - signed through 2019, then UFA
Price (age 32) - if opts in signed through 2022 at $32M per year
Porcello (age 30) - signed through 2019 at $21, then UFA
Eovaldi (age 28) - UFA
EdRod (age 25) - three more years of control, arb eligible
Pomeranz (age 29) - UFA
Steven Wright (age 33) - two more years of control, arb eligible
I mean how do you NOT try to sign Eovaldi (or another FA starter, maybe someone who is more durable...Keuchel is that guy)? Even assuming Price stays, Sale is no lock to be healthy next year and is not a lock to be re-signed. Given there is not minor league starting depth at all, they almost have to sign a FA starter this year to protect themselves against losing Sale and Porcello next year. Unless you want the window to be 2019, then you let Sale, Porcello walk and use proceeds from that and Panda rolling off to pay the position players. I think this also means there is little chance they sign Kimbrel long-term, but offer QO as him on one-year is fine.
I'm gonna stop you right there.Starting pitching depth:
Sale (Age 31) - signed through 2019, then UFA
thanks. My bad. point still stands. you can't count on Sale next year regardless of his age. You may have Price, have Porcello for one year, and edrod. that's all you really have. Only Porcello has gone the entire season with Boston without meaningful injury. If you want to repeat, you have to sign a big pitcher, and given the risks in the first four (assuming Price stays), maybe that's not Eovaldi given you need highest probability of most innings? If you want to be good in two years, you need to sign a big pitcher now or next year. they don't have assets to trade for a stud pitcher unless you want to give up Benny or Devers.FWIW, Chris Sale is 29, not 31
Not a surprise - he has lots of reasons to stay.... but hope winning is the biggest motivation.
Looking at BRef contracts, they have Panda at $5m after 2019. Is that a team option?Re-sign Pearce, sign Britton to close on a short term rebound contract, re-sign JoKe if possible to a 2 year deal, and pay Eovaldi, he's 28, in his prime and has shown that he can excel on the biggest stage, Porcello and Sandoval will come off the books after next year.
It's a buy out. But yeah.Looking at BRef contracts, they have Panda at $5m after 2019. Is that a team option?
He spent part of his career as a reliever too, so if he's open to that role, fine. With Price staying the chances of signing Eovaldi go down, so a swingman type has value.I’m more and more getting behind the idea of giving Pom a good one year deal. His market will not be what he could get if he can put in another season like ‘17. I imagine his ego may agree
But, if Pom is signing a make-good contract, he should find a team who can offer him a role as a starter. Innings out of the BP will only suppress the dollars in his next contract. Having him as a swingman would be good for the team, but bad for Pom. Assuming he's signing at one year for low money to get a shot at FA redemption next year, he should be attractive to pretty much everyone--even bad teams, who can gaurantee him innings and trade him at the deadline.He spent part of his career as a reliever too, so if he's open to that role, fine. With Price staying the chances of signing Eovaldi go down, so a swingman type has value.
I blinked at that too. The Sox are young enough. We sometimes forget that because a few of the youngsters, like Benny, Bogaerts and Betts, have been playing for a while. It’s like how some folks complain about how the farm system is depleted. There’s a good reason for that: our best minor league “prospects” are already playing in the majors.Getting younger? You realize that only three teams in the AL had a younger average age than the Sox, and that we were by far the youngest of the Sox' four championship teams this century?
I mean, youth is good and all, but it's hard for me to see how that's an important issue for the Sox this winter.
Now, in 2020 and 2021, if they can't lock up the young core, they may start having to fill holes with mid-career journeymen, and then maybe they start to look like an older (and lesser) team. But no need to borrow tomorrow's troubles today.
Except that isn't true, either. How many top prospects are 24 and 25 years old in a strong system? They are young, they aren't that young.I blinked at that too. The Sox are young enough. We sometimes forget that because a few of the youngsters, like Benny, Bogaerts and Betts, have been playing for a while. It’s like how some folks complain about how the farm system is depleted. There’s a good reason for that: our best minor league “prospects” are already playing in the majors.
I'm glad you're not the GM. A good offseason to punt a bit? They have a fucking epic core in place and a shot at another ring, are you high?This offseason should focus on them trying getting younger which will be extremely hard since they still lack trade chips for cost controlled players I'm fine with a lesser bridge year like they have done in the past.
-I'd let Kimbrel walk. There are too many internal guys I'd rather keep that every dollar counts. If the pen is the Achilles heel for a year or two then so be it. They've bought a few years of goodwill Bogaerts, Betts, Bradley are a lot more important. Durbin could be ready by the end of the season.
-I'd see if Kelly can be had for somewhere in the 3 year 18-21 mill range which may be light. If he wants closer money, then adios. I don't think he'll get it given his volatility and a healthy closer market.
-I'd bring Phillips back as Pedey protection and a Devers back up. He wouldn't expect much playing time and would be really cheap. Holt is the obvious fall back option otherwise. Maybe Chavis could switch positions but it's entirely possible Pedey is just a 300 at bat guy max going forward.
-I'd kick the tires on Ramos since he is already 31. It would be nice to have a non black hole guy at catcher. As much as Leon was the pitcher whisperer during the regular season, Vazquez got more of the call in the playoffs so maybe Leon is a non-tender candidate.
-Pearce shouldn't be that expensive assuming the first base market continues its trend. He's a good bridge for Ockimey.
-Eovaldi should be one of their top priorties as long as his market doesn't explode like Olney expects. Cheaper options would be Trevor Cahill or Garrett Richards. The only other youngish impact free agent is Corbin and he will get paid.
This is a good offseason to punt a bit and save some money for 2020.
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Price 31m 32m 32m 32m
Sale 15m FA
Porcello 21m FA
Rodriguez A2 A3 A4 FA
Wright A2 A3 FA
Johnson .5m .5m A1 A2 A3
Velazquez .5m .5m A1 A2 A3
Thank-you. Now is not the time to start building for the future. They have numerous, controlled assets for the next 2 (maybe 3) seasons, and should be in a GFN mode during that time. In 2007, they were in a pretty similar position with young, controlled core of Ellsbury, Pedey, Papelbon, Lester, etc., and I would say that they had a pretty good run of 3 playoff appearances, 2 ALCS appearances and 1 World Series title. I think that this squad has more talent (or, at the very least, as much) to make it a 2016-2020 run.I'm glad you're not the GM. A good offseason to punt a bit? They have a fucking epic core in place and a shot at another ring, are you high?
No chance they let the bullpen be an achilles heel, no chance they bring back Phillips, and Eo would be great to have back, but he's going to get money that's outside of our budget.
Yeah, makes sense. He was a bit underappreciated in Boston so I would guess he's ready to try somewhere else.But, if Pom is signing a make-good contract, he should find a team who can offer him a role as a starter. Innings out of the BP will only suppress the dollars in his next contract. Having him as a swingman would be good for the team, but bad for Pom. Assuming he's signing at one year for low money to get a shot at FA redemption next year, he should be attractive to pretty much everyone--even bad teams, who can gaurantee him innings and trade him at the deadline.
Exactly how I feel. And our chief A.L. competitors aren't going away. The Yankees are already a 100-win team. They also have very young, core MLB players, a better farm system, and a metric shit ton of money to spend on whatever they want this offseason. If they replace CC and Lynn/Gray with, say, Corbin and Eo, plus add Machado or Harper...? It'll be a battle next year, but after that, things get cloudy, if we've lost Kimbrel, Sale, Porcello, maybe X.I have to say, I'm particularly pleased that we won this title because I see a tough roster transition ahead for this franchise — chiefly because of the rotation. ...
I don't know much about Hernandez or Shawaryn so I won't comment there.But big picture, we either need some of Hernandez, Groome, Houck, Mata, and Shawaryn to pan out in a hurry, or we need Dombrowski to pull another rabbit out of his hat by trade or signing.
Rotation realism, I like it. I absolutely agree that this is the season to get a guy who'll be here in 2021.I have to say, I'm particularly pleased that we won this title because I see a tough roster transition ahead for this franchise — chiefly because of the rotation.
With the news that Price has opted in, we now have the following SP under contract.
(And I'm not sure if Wright's knees can actually hold up as a SP.)Code:2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Price 31m 32m 32m 32m Sale 15m FA Porcello 21m FA Rodriguez A2 A3 A4 FA Wright A2 A3 FA Johnson .5m .5m A1 A2 A3 Velazquez .5m .5m A1 A2 A3
Basically, after 2019, we will need to find 350 IP of high-quality SP somewhere, just as our young OF are getting expensive and our franchise SS hits FA. We're in great shape at the back-end, with acceptable SP 5/6/7 types in Johnson and Velazquez, and we have Price up front assuming his elbow holds up, but we'll need somebody reliable for the 1/2/3 slots, and I'm not sure we can afford to pay retail in FA.
I don't think that Sale is a good candidate for a long-term deal: I'm terrified that his stomach bug was due to him overdoing NSAIDs in response to ominous shoulder pain. I'm also not sure we can afford another $32m AAV pitcher. I similarly am concerned about any long-term commitment to Eovaldi, due to the poor track record of double-TJS recipients that I've harped on elsewhere on this board. I'll readily admit that the team knows much more about both players' actual current health than I do.
But big picture, we either need some of Hernandez, Groome, Houck, Mata, and Shawaryn to pan out in a hurry, or we need Dombrowski to pull another rabbit out of his hat by trade or signing.
Assuming you're looking at this page, you're looking at 2020's numbers.According to b-ref's estimates, taking into account options picked up, arbitration rulings, etc., the Sox should be around $175 million without Kimbrel, Eovaldi, Kinsler, Pearce, Pomeranz, and Kelly. The luxury tax threshold is $209 million, which means they have about $34 million to play with.
Wouldn't there be a market for him, though? The risk with Craig is that he goes full Carlos Marmol in 2021-22, but I'd think there's a pretty good bet that a wealthy team gives up a C-prospect for him knowing they've got a good shot at the 2019 postseason.Clearly, if they want to stay under the luxury tax, they can't keep everyone at what would likely be market prices. So if they offer Kimbrel the QO, and he TAKES it, that's like $19 million (I think) of that $34 million, just like that. We assume he turns it down but what if he doesn't? Then they're kind of screwed.
I like this idea. I shudder to think what Porcello's HR/9 would be in Citizens Bank, but he'd be a nice fit in San Francisco or Oakland.A radical idea would be to sign Eovaldi and then trade Porcello to a contender for a good young starting pitching prospect. I'm thinking like Sixto Sanchez in the Phillie organization. He is very highly rated and put up a 2.70 era, 1.07 whip, and 8.7 k/9 in A+ ball at age 19. Philly has money, and they're definitely a contender. Adding Porcello would be huge for them from a 2019 baseball standpoint. Of course, no clue if Philly has any interest in anything like that and the specifics aren't important. Just the concept of moving Porcello to a contender for a highly regarded starting pitching prospect. The Sox then roll with a rotation of Sale, Price, Eovaldi, Rodriguez, and Wright. Or if not Wright, then Brian Johnson or Velazquez or sign a much cheaper free agent (cheaper than Porcello) like Travis Wood. Then they end up with a quality starting prospect in the minors to go along with Groome. And they save enough $$ to keep Kelly.