2017 opponents announced

soxhop411

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Dec 4, 2009
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“@MikeReiss: Patriots 2017 away opponents: Steelers, Buccaneers, Saints, Raiders, Broncos, Bills, Dolphins & Jets. Steelers’ win 2day fills in final spot”

“@MikeReiss: Patriots 2017 home opponents: Texans, Panthers, Falcons, Chargers, Chiefs, Bills, Dolphins & Jets. Texans’ win Saturday fills in final piece”
 

SMU_Sox

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Jul 20, 2009
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You can't predict now what ends up happening next year. With that huge obvious caveat out of the way it looks like the defense is going to be tested.

On the road against the Raiders, Steelers, Saints, and at home against the Panthers, Falcons, and Chargers.

Just looking at it, aside from the Texans and Jets, all of the teams we face have an offense in the top 20 now.
 

jsinger121

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Jul 25, 2005
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The Raiders game is more than likely to be in Mexico City rather than Oakland.
 

Euclis20

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Meh, coming into the season it looked like the Pats had a pretty difficult schedule. Their schedule's win percentage in 2015 was .523, making it the 9th toughest schedule heading into Week 1.

It's impossible to call these things ahead of time.

*edit - At a glance, it looks like their schedule next year has so far had a .534 winning percentage in 2016. That does seem more difficult than this year, but as I said, things change incredibly quickly in the NFL.
 

lowerB511

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Jul 14, 2005
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Why? The ethos of the NFL is that top success is supposed to be short-lived. Why lock in for 3 years?
They rotate divisions in the same conference so that it is guaranteed you have both a home and away game against those in your conference at least every 6 years. They have it setup that you eventually rotate to each stadium.

In 2014 the Pats hosted Oakland and Denver, while traveling to KC and San Diego. It flips stadiums in 2017 as Reiss has in the OP. In 2020, it will flip back to how it was in 2014.

Any additional games against Denver (2015 and 2016) were based on a different pre-set rotation.
 

Harry Hooper

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I still don't get it, but then I remain traumatized by the memory of the Pats finally having a home game vs.the Broncos and yet having to play a regular season game out in Denver the same season.
 

InstaFace

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Sep 27, 2016
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I still don't get it, but then I remain traumatized by the memory of the Pats finally having a home game vs.the Broncos and yet having to play a regular season game out in Denver the same season.
OK so every year, your schedule is composed of 4 sets of games:

A: (6) Your division opponents, home-and-home
B: (4) One rotating division in the other conference, each one every 4 years
C: (4) One rotating division in your conference, other than your own division, so each one every 3 years
D: (2) Among the other two divisions in your conference that you're not either in or playing already, you play the teams that finished in the same spot in their division as you finished in yours last year.

(for our allocation for "D" next year, as the division winners, we are playing HOU and PIT because they won the AFC South and North, and we won the East. We were already going to be playing the West due to its turn being up for "C". This year, we played the entire AFC North, and only played Houston and Denver because of "D").

It is that "D" aspect of the schedule that is the entirety of the Harrison Bergeron'ing of pushing towards parity. Well that and the draft and salary cap, but schedule-wise, only those two games are easier for bad teams and harder for good ones. And that kinda assumes teams stay roughly as good one year as they were the last, which is generally a shaky assumption.

Anyway, for the teams that you play in "B" and "C", the location you play at alternates every time that division comes around. So for example, the Pats played at Seattle in 2004 and 2012, but home vs Seattle in 2008 and 2016. Each year, you play two of those teams at home, and two of them on the road, and the next time that division comes up, it flips.

So in 2014, it was our turn to play the AFC West for "C". That year, our game against Denver was at home. So in 2017, it will be on the road, and in 2020 it will be home again. That rotation is fixed long in advance.

Whereas, in 2015 and 2016, we only played Denver due to our respective division finishes lining up (so, because of "D"). In 2015, the two games we got were vs PIT and @ DEN. In 2016, the two games we got were vs HOU and @ DEN. One will be home and one will be away; I'm not sure but it may just be luck of the draw as to which is which.

Point is, the game at denver next year has long been pre-ordained. If you're going to complain, you should complain that our games should have been @ HOU and vs DEN this year.
 

Jnai

is not worried about sex with goats
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Sep 15, 2007
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Actually, all NFL teams play roughly the same theoretical strength of schedule, regardless of whether or not they are good or bad.

Think about it this way: a divisional foe (let's say, the third best team in the division) plays all the same games you do except for the two first place finishers from the conference not already on the schedule. Instead, they get the third place teams. However, you get two third place teams by playing that third place team in division, and they get two first place teams by playing you.
 

shawnrbu

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What is the reason they play at Denver for a third straight year?
Part of the 3 year cycle. Pats hosted Denver in 12, 13 and 14. The Pats will host Denver in 2020. If the Pats finish with the same divisional place as Denver in 2017, then the 2018 game will be in Foxboro (same thing would occur the following year).
 

DeadlySplitter

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I think the thing that's clear is that the two games against same-place conference opponents is not alternated well on home field like every other part of the schedule.

It should be easy to cycle every 6 years between 3 possible two-conference combinations and 2 possible home/away designations on each, but instead we get this effect of stacking three seasons in a row at the same site.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Whereas, in 2015 and 2016, we only played Denver due to our respective division finishes lining up (so, because of "D"). In 2015, the two games we got were vs PIT and @ DEN. In 2016, the two games we got were vs HOU and @ DEN. One will be home and one will be away; I'm not sure but it may just be luck of the draw as to which is which.
Awesome analysis, but the part not snipped is the part I think everyone is wondering about.
 

singaporesoxfan

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Actually, all NFL teams play roughly the same theoretical strength of schedule, regardless of whether or not they are good or bad.

Think about it this way: a divisional foe (let's say, the third best team in the division) plays all the same games you do except for the two first place finishers from the conference not already on the schedule. Instead, they get the third place teams. However, you get two third place teams by playing that third place team in division, and they get two first place teams by playing you.
Woah. Mind blown.
 

Was (Not Wasdin)

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I think the reason the rotation is "off" with Denver (and possibly KC) is to limit the number of full west coast trips that east coast teams have to make in years when the rotation has them playing the AFC west and the NFC west. By swapping the home game on one of the cycles, they avoid having to do the Oakland, San Diego, San Fran, Seattle road circuit. This will be even worse now in the NFC I think with St. Louis in LA-Giants, Eagles, and Redskins may be locked into four full west coast trips in years they play the AFC West
 

Royal Reader

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Nah, the rotation is always three years with other teams in the same conference but different divisions. This created a ton of Colts (player) whining when they had to play three years in a row in Foxboro, then a ton of Patriot (fan) whining when it flipped and the Pats had to go to the dome three years running. The Denver rotation isn't "off."

That said, I can't see any reason why the schedule doesn't work if the alternation (with 'C' games - years you play the whole division - bolded) goes HrhRhrH rather than HhrRhrH to alternate every year. I thought it had something to do with ensuring each team eight home games, but I ran a simulation with the two year alternation and it works.
 

dbn

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Feb 10, 2007
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Sorry if this has been covered and I missed it (though I don't think so), but how are the home fields determined for the two games each team plays based on InstaFace's part D:

D: (2) Among the other two divisions in your conference that you're not either in or playing already, you play the teams that finished in the same spot in their division as you finished in yours last year.
?

Obviously, there is a constraint that each team has to have one of them home and one away, but I don't know how which is home is determined.

edit: there is another constraint. Since NE plays @PIT, that means they have to host HOU, which in turn determines that HOU has to play OAK at home so that they have one of each H/A game of this type, which then in turn determines that OAK has to play PIT at home, for the same reason. In short, for each of the #1v#1s, #2v#2s, etc., once a single home-field has been selected, the other 3 game home fields are determined.
 
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j-man

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Dec 19, 2012
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basiclly denver sch from last year

Car is overrated ATL has very littie def TB Is good but wintion throws too many picks NO will be hard Oak will be hard as well stop T Hill and doulce kelce KC is 10X easyer on road SD juts play hard aga afc west

11-12 wins are a lock unless brady hits the P Manning wall and if u win the SB KC or Car will be opp