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2017 NFL Draft Discussion

Discussion in 'Wait, Who???' started by pappymojo, Apr 20, 2017.

  1. pappymojo

    pappymojo Member SoSH Member

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    Felt like I was polluting the Draft Contest Thread (http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/the-new-new-2017-draft-contest.18887/#post-2215329) and wanted a place to discuss this year's draft. I know the Patriots don't pick until the 3rd round, and I don't really expect the Patriots to trade Butler or Garoppolo, but felt like we needed a place to discuss the draft.

    James Conner wrote a letter to NFL GMs in the Players Tribune. I'm a little bit surprised the Players Tribune published such an article because it's basically an advertisement for himself, but whatever, I like the guy and hope he has a successful career.

    https://www.theplayerstribune.com/james-conner-pitt-letter-to-nfl-gms/
     
  2. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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  3. Morgan's Magic Snowplow

    Morgan's Magic Snowplow Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    DeShone Kizer won't live this one down for a while.

     
  4. ehaz

    ehaz Member SoSH Member

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    Lavar Ball finally found a 1 on 1 partner.
     
  5. snowmanny

    snowmanny Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    That is going to really annoy Cam Newton.
     
  6. pappymojo

    pappymojo Member SoSH Member

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    http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

    This is an interesting article from a Chiefs website (2015 no less) breaking down success rate for draft picks by position and round. Not sure how accurate the numbers are but it seems that the Patriots areas of need match up with their remaining picks.

    3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

    4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

    5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)

    6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)

    7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)
     
  7. dcmissle

    dcmissle Deflatigator Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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  8. Saints Rest

    Saints Rest Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Dear 1st round prospect, have you stopped beating your wife?
     
  9. BigJimEd

    BigJimEd Member SoSH Member

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  10. SMU_Sox

    SMU_Sox loves his fluffykins SoSH Member

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    Sneak peak at ITP's Nick Chubb profile. He is their RB5. We also know that Ronald Jones is ahead of him. So, let's figure out the top 5. This is a/the waiting game until the guide comes out.

    1. Saquon Barkley. Random: his name reminds me of the character from the wire, D'Angelo Barksdale, who was a boss too.
    2. Guice.
    3. Michel
    4. Ronald Jones
    5. Chubb

    Honorable mention:
    6) Freeman

    In the first update they featured Troy Fumagalli, TE12.
     
  11. SMU_Sox

    SMU_Sox loves his fluffykins SoSH Member

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    I finished my goal to look at ten tackle prospects. Unlike some of the other positions, where I had put a lot of energy and focus into, offensive tackle is an area I need to put a lot more work into to understand how to scout. So, I admit that my takes here suffer from a level of ignorance that I hope to continue to work to correct.

    Offensive Tackle is another area where everyone has some warts in this years class and where some of the better prospects shined in 2016. I don't think I would want any of Brown, Williams, McGlinchey, Miller, Crosby, or Wynn in the first round as a tackle prospect (Wynn or Williams could be guards and Wynn would warrant a possible first round grade there). That's not that I don't like them, except Crosby - not high on him at all, and Brown (that's a whole different can of worms). I like the positional versatility that Wynn and Williams give you. Williams was inconsistent in 2017. In Scar we trust, if he thinks he is fixable he could be the LT of the future. Williams isn't the prototypical Patriots LT though. McGlinchey is but he isn't the most technically sound. He plays athletically and although we don't have any test results he should be considered a plus athlete. He also needs to add more weight/strength. If you went by potential and a moldable lump of OT clay I think McGlinchey would be their guy, but is he really a value at 31 or 43? I anticipate that there will be better players on the board at positions of need especially on the defense.
    Miller is my guy - with the caveat that his height potentially limits his ceiling. And that's where my knowledge base gets me into trouble with projection. When you see the weaknesses in his game coming from his height how much can you coach around that? But even with those potential limitations I think there is value scooping him up in the 3rd.

    Tackle is a premium position and where guys slide up on boards because of it. This is not a good year for top end tackles. I don't think there are any - or if there are they come with ?s and risk more than the average high end tackle prospect. Patriots have Waddle and get to develop Garcia for a year and perhaps see him in action in the second half of the season. The Patriots have a lot of needs, but because of their roster construction they likely do not need to start a rookie. If the value is there and Scar likes the guy by all means pull the trigger but I would hope they do not reach for someone in this year's class.

    What do you all make of the tackle class?
     
  12. Super Nomario

    Super Nomario Member SoSH Member

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    The other thing that complicates looking at OT is, what are the Patriots looking for? I mentioned Brian O'Neill earlier as a guy who's got a similar profile to Solder and the two guys they drafted last year (Garcia and McDermott) - tall, great athlete, needs to add strength. But Cannon and Fleming were very different kids of OTs, big heavy dudes who aren't quite as a tall or athletic (though Cannon had above-average jumps, which is kind of crazy for a 350+ pound guy). Someone like Orlando Brown would be more in that mold. Vollmer was a huge, athletic, really raw dude who was also older. Light was a little bit short for what teams want in a LT. I'm not sure how much the Patriots have a "type." They may reach a point where they decide a dude like Brown is good value even though he couldn't be more different than Solder was.
     
  13. SMU_Sox

    SMU_Sox loves his fluffykins SoSH Member

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    5,803
    Wonderlic scores released for big 5 QBs:

    Allen: 37
    Rosen: 29
    Darnold: 28
    Mayfield: 25
    Jackson: 13

    The guy with the lowest Football IQ has the highest IQ, go figure.

    I’ve never really considered if it matters in much depth. Yes, you need a level of some sort of intelligence to grasp the playbook and then play the position but will the Wonderlic capture that? There’s context for each player too.

    I’ve read the conflicting opinions over the years, from it doesn’t matter it is just one test and way of testing to QBs need a 25 or more to play the position.

    You can see the improvement Lamar Jackson made as a passing QB over time. A ton of that is mental development.

    Josh Allen with his lofty 37 did not noticeably improve this year and made the same mistakes over and over again.
     
  14. Super Nomario

    Super Nomario Member SoSH Member

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    Never a bad time to post this:
     
  15. SMU_Sox

    SMU_Sox loves his fluffykins SoSH Member

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    Wow, that was a gem! My gut reaction when I heard the results was "You know, I don't think I really give a shit." Honey Badger and Brett Favre don't give a shit either.

    It's interesting listening to some of the prospects when they come on draft shows. Some of these guys are or are in part, and I don't care - I am friends and coworkers with guys like this, average intelligence or below and the athletic type. I think that's about the most polite way of not saying "dumb jock" I can muster. Nothing wrong with that either. You can hear it too. They will sound very casual in the interview, talking about their favorite pizza near their college or whatever softball question to start off and then eventually they get to the film and the heavy hitting questions. That's when their voices get serious and all of a sudden Bubba Gump from Oklahoma St. goes from sounding like a good ol' boy to Dr. Professor Offensive Lineman. It never fails to blow my mind too.

    I think you can measure football intelligence on tape.

    As an aside SMU's proday was today. I called the athletic department last week to ask if I could go. It took them a few days to get back to me but they eventually said no, that it was closed off to the public. And then after he lets me know my request was denied he tells me, "But, sir, we do have something we think you'd like and be interested in. We've put together a season ticket information package." In other words we can't help you anymore but give us money. All university departments speak the same language.

    And yet here I am looking at the email at 9:26pm tonight thinking, hey, $99 for upper level endzone seats isn't bad. I go to the pre-game there. Not pre-game though because at SMU it's called boulevarding. Really fitting for snobby SMU. "No, Chaz, I don't pre-game. I boulevard." The way it works is you get 2-4 free drink tickets at each department you had a major or graduated from. I was a bit of a busy-bee and am eligible for 5 departments tickets so depending on the game can get up to 20 beers on the house. If I drink 3 beers I am almost blackout drunk so my girlfriend will have plenty even for her to be drunk enough to enjoy sitting and watching football with me.
     
  16. RetractableRoof

    RetractableRoof Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Doesn't it make sense that Cannon was more of a value proposition for them as he slid - as opposed to meeting any particular profile?
     
  17. Super Nomario

    Super Nomario Member SoSH Member

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    Absolutely. That's the point I was trying to make - they've shown a willingness to work with a variety of different physical profiles, as long as the value proposition is there.

    One OT that's intriguing is Jamarco Jones of Ohio State. He's kinda short for a tackle (6'4") but has long arms - 35 1/8." His footwork was apparently good on tape, but he tested lousy. Our ITP scouts were kind of all over the place on him. Belichick has some history with the Buckeyes coaching staff. Started two years at LT for a good program in a tough conference. He wouldn't be a flashy pick but would have a reasonably high floor.
     
  18. RetractableRoof

    RetractableRoof Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    OK, sorry I missed your point originally. ThanksT for clarifying it.

    I'm a fan of OL with long arms and quick feet, so sign me up.
     
  19. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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  20. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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    18,059
    Just realized this was the 2017 thread... maybe we can get a thread title edit?
     

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