Yup. It's not going away. After this weekend, everyone will be waiting for the next Teddy Bridgewater to go down.Doug KyedVerified account @DougKyed 2h2 hours ago
Looking forward to retirement 40 years from now, sitting on a rocking chair hearing how the Browns are still trying to trade for Jimmy G.
That won't be the case at all. If Jimmy stays a Patriot, it's because they want him for the long haul.Yup. It's not going away. After this weekend, everyone will be waiting for the next Teddy Bridgewater to go down.
I don't think Cabot is making stuff up. I think the smartest kids in the analytics class in Cleveland are trying to steal JG. No harm in trying, but good luck with that.
I think this is right. I think this is a go for it now play. Last year they don't win the Super Bowl without Bennett, even though Bennett isn't Gronkowski. When you've put together this complete a roster, why risk it all on one old guy's health?I think he knows the biggest thing to derail the team is losing Brady, the chance of which goes up exponentially in late 30s. So, even though it is expensive insurance, including lost opportunity cost, the insurance against a season being thrown away is worth it.
Yeah I keep going around in circles on this. On the one hand they are never in GFIN mode, but they've never handled something this way before.I think this is right. I think this is a go for it now play. Last year they don't win the Super Bowl without Bennett, even though Bennett isn't Gronkowski. When you've put together this complete a roster, why risk it all on one old guy's health?
Of course they never seem to be all-in GFIN and they've never been this concerned about Brady's backup before so it's possible i am full of crap.
Brady was coming off an ACL tear in 2009 and Bill went into the season with UDFA Brian Hoyer as the only other QB on the roster. I don't believe this is Belichick overvaluing insurance in case of a Brady injury, he must really love Garoppolo.I think he knows the biggest thing to derail the team is losing Brady, the chance of which goes up exponentially in late 30s. So, even though it is expensive insurance, including lost opportunity cost, the insurance against a season being thrown away is worth it.
The problem with that question is the presumption of "one year of a backup".Some of us have certainly questioned whether it was worth one year of a backup to turn down future value. I don't see how that's an unreasonable question, when the only answer one can come back with is "what if Brady gets hurt, he's 40 years old ya know?'.
It's not that hard to believe, but I'd love to see what the plan is, considering Jimmy and Brady's contract situations. The way this has unfolded tells me that there's a 95% chance Garoppolo is a Patriot in 2018. The question is whether he stays under the franchise tag, signs a new deal with the knowledge he'll sit for a couple more years, or signs for starter money after Bill gets rid of Brady. If they end up letting Jimmy walk after refusing a boatload of picks, just because of the insurance he provides for the 2017 season, it'll be monumentally stupid. At this point, I'm fully convinced Belichick believes Garoppolo figures into the Patriots long term plans.The problem with that question is the presumption of "one year of a backup".
The vast majority of the noise up to this point has been that the Patriots are very high on JG, and that he was never available, and that "one year of a backup" isn't the value in question here.
I mean christ, is it really hard to believe that a team with a 40 year old quarterback and an otherwise absolutely stacked roster wants to hold onto a good QB prospect?
I know. It's nuts. GFIN is the tail on the dog. The dog is a ten year insurance policy that you KNOW you're going to cash, probably within a couple of years.The problem with that question is the presumption of "one year of a backup".
The vast majority of the noise up to this point has been that the Patriots are very high on JG, and that he was never available, and that "one year of a backup" isn't the value in question here.
I mean christ, is it really hard to believe that a team with a 40 year old quarterback and an otherwise absolutely stacked roster wants to hold onto a good QB prospect?
What if that insurance is needed for like 8 games of 2017 and is a key factor in the Pats winning another super bowl?It's not that hard to believe, but I'd love to see what the plan is, considering Jimmy and Brady's contract situations. The way this has unfolded tells me that there's a 95% chance Garoppolo is a Patriot in 2018. The question is whether he stays under the franchise tag, signs a new deal with the knowledge he'll sit for a couple more years, or signs for starter money after Bill gets rid of Brady. If they end up letting Jimmy walk after refusing a boatload of picks, just because of the insurance he provides for the 2017 season, it'll be monumentally stupid. At this point, I'm fully convinced Belichick believes Garoppolo figures into the Patriots long term plans.
No, but the most likely outcome now is Jimmy G leaving for a comp pick or something a little better via franchise and trade after this season. At least that's what I'm rooting for because otherwise the Pats probably didn't win another Super Bowl. Fine to have the insurance for the low probability case that Brady goes over the cliff this year.The problem with that question is the presumption of "one year of a backup".
The vast majority of the noise up to this point has been that the Patriots are very high on JG, and that he was never available, and that "one year of a backup" isn't the value in question here.
I mean christ, is it really hard to believe that a team with a 40 year old quarterback and an otherwise absolutely stacked roster wants to hold onto a good QB prospect?
No team has won a Super Bowl with a quarterback as bad as or worse than Brissett since 2015.Honest question: if the Patriots win the super bowl this year and JG sits on the bench all year and then walks next year are people going to be angry?
In the end I wouldn't be given we'd be coming off 3 SB in 4 years with a heathy Brady in tact, but that said my vote is to trade him as I think they still win the Super Bowl with Brissett given how deeep the team is across the board.
Our worries, as always, are irrelevant. It's the team's estimation that matters.If we're this worried about Tom Brady being made of glass in 2017, maybe we should consider trading him to the Browns.
It's not hard to believe that, of course they want to keep him. The problem with the stance you (and many others) are taking is that I've seen no one provide a viable scenario where keeping JG long term as successor to TB.The problem with that question is the presumption of "one year of a backup".
The vast majority of the noise up to this point has been that the Patriots are very high on JG, and that he was never available, and that "one year of a backup" isn't the value in question here.
I mean christ, is it really hard to believe that a team with a 40 year old quarterback and an otherwise absolutely stacked roster wants to hold onto a good QB prospect?
I think on the whole people here will understand that outcome even if the Pats don't win the Super Bowl. Pushing Brady out the door probably a harder sell to the general Patriots fan community than not pushing Brady out the door and moving to Jimmy GHonest question: if the Patriots win the super bowl this year and JG sits on the bench all year and then walks next year are people going to be angry?
No. That's the plan in my mindHonest question: if the Patriots win the super bowl this year and JG sits on the bench all year and then walks next year are people going to be angry?
In the end I wouldn't be given we'd be coming off 3 SB in 4 years with a heathy Brady in tact, but that said my vote is to trade him as I think they still win the Super Bowl with Brissett given how deeep the team is across the board.
Why do you think this is the most likely case?No, but the most likely outcome now is Jimmy G leaving for a comp pick or something a little better via franchise and trade after this season. At least that's what I'm rooting for because otherwise the Pats probably didn't win another Super Bowl. Fine to have the insurance for the low probability case that Brady goes over the cliff this year.
Your continued assertion that Tom Brady is going to play at a minimum 2+ years is a baseless opinion at this point. There is simply no reason to believe that 2 years is any sort of minimum.TB is playing two more seasons at the minimum. There was talk of them discussing an extension around the SB. I'm all ears for someone to present a reasonable, viable and realistic option for keeping him here beyond this season or the next, without the fallback of 'TB is going into his age 40 season and could get hurt'.
Do you mean other than the fact that he has two years left on his contract, has repeatedly stated he wants to play longer than that and there were reports around the Super Bowl that they were talking extension?Your continued assertion that Tom Brady is going to play at a minimum 2+ years is a baseless opinion at this point. There is simply no reason to believe that 2 years is any sort of minimum.
I think you missed a scenario that no other team thought highly enough of JG to offer enough to make trading him worthwhile (and I don't think the Jamie Collins comparison can be made here either since Collins could actively hurt the team with his play and in the locker room). It's kind of a corollary of your scenario 4.Well one of the following is true:
1. BB highly values JG as a one-season back-up/insurance for TB12 and he then plans to let JG walk (or franchise/trade him) in 2018.
2. BB plans to somehow manage the cap and keep JG and TB12 past 2017 because he highly values both of them.
3. BB is at least considering dropping/trading TB12 after this year (or considering the possibility TB12 is injured) and values JG as a QB over other foreseeable options so much he decided to hold onto him just in case
4. BB does not value JG all that highly, but he also doesn't value high draft picks in this or next year's draft.
5. BB totally bungled the whole situation.
What did I miss?
Correct in the sense that the other variable is that we dont actually know what the Browns offered.I think you missed a scenario that no other team thought highly enough of JG to offer enough to make trading him worthwhile (and I don't think the Jamie Collins comparison can be made here either since Collins could actively hurt the team with his play and in the locker room). It's kind of a corollary of your scenario 4.
I dont know about the bolded. At the very least if the Pats pay him $22MM under the franchise tag, basically anoint him the successor to Brady, and would have to pay him $24-$25MM guaranteed to control his rights for 2018 (and maybe he doesnt like being the backup for another year, which wouldnt engender loyalty, but we cant say that for sure)....doesnt the price to keep him off the open market at that point start with a Kirk Cousins like 5/125 with a lot of money guaranteed? Why do we think he'd take less money to play here at that point? Wouldnt the franchise be better off locking up Jimmy G long-term now and moving on from Brady after 2017 if they are absolutely convinced he is the future of the franchise?I think part of the trickiness is disaggregating the different scenarios for Brady and Garoppolo.
Garoppolo
G1 Internal scouting and six quarters of play says that Garoppolo is the QB of the future
G2 Garoppolo is not the QB of the future ... but has trade value if other teams think he might be.
I think G1 must be true or there would have been a trade before the draft.
Brady
B1 Brady sits down with Bill and says I'm 99% sure I'm retiring after next season, but I don't want to seem like Brett Favre so let's keep this in house in case I change my mind.
B2 Brady says he is going to play as long as he is healthy and effective, and believes that could be for another five or more years. Belichick disagrees and thinks two years is more accurate
B3 Brady and Belichick both expect Brady to be healthy and effective for more than a couple years.
I think B2 is the most likely scenario. In which case, extending the QB of the future would be ideal, but franchising him for one year would still be wise. If you're JG, even if you're mad at being a backup QB for an extra two years, there's no way you turn down the keys to the Patriots franchise to sign somewhere else.
BB thinks JG's trade value will increase if he waits until training camp/preseason.Well one of the following is true:
1. BB highly values JG as a one-season back-up/insurance for TB12 and he then plans to let JG walk (or franchise/trade him) in 2018.
2. BB plans to somehow manage the cap and keep JG and TB12 past 2017 because he highly values both of them.
3. BB is at least considering dropping/trading TB12 after this year (or EDIT: CALL THIS 3A-considering the possibility TB12 is injured) and values JG as a QB over other foreseeable options so much he decided to hold onto him just in case
4. BB does not value JG all that highly, but he also doesn't value high draft picks in this or next year's draft.
5. BB totally bungled the whole situation.
What did I miss?
It's not just trade value, they get to look at Brady and Brissett next summer to see how well the GOAT's holding up and how far the latter has come before having to make a decision.BB thinks JG's trade value will increase if he waits until training camp/preseason.
Jimmy G costs very little this year in salary. He'd cost $20MM plus to franchise/transition tag next year. So they arent really very similar decisions.SO they want to keep JG for insurance to see how Brady looks going into his age 40 season.
But will be fine with Brissett as the backup going into his age 41 season?
Somehow his age 40 pre-season will give more comfort (then we have now) that father time is still a couple years away???
I dont buy it. If your worried about Brady going into his age 40 season, so worried that you forego trading JG when he is most valuable (with 1 cheap year left), then your not gonna be "unworried" with him going into his age 41 season.
BB is obviously worried. History is on his side in that few players continue above average performance into their 40s. (while I disagree and think that Brady might just be able to be a top 10 QB into his mid 40s......BB seemingly disagrees).
Lets say that BB sees Brady is "good to go" this pre-season and he tries to trade JG at point.
1. He (for some reason) questioned Bradys ability to come back at age 40. But is heartened by an incredibly SSS by a QB who could fall off the cliff very quickly.
or
2. He believes that JG would return more in Pre-season then the Draft.
I dont believe that a few weeks of practice will allay #1 much beyond the 2017 season. I also dont believe in #2.
Lets say that BB decided he wanted "one more year" of insurance and he plans to trade JG in 2018 (either at the Draft or in pre-season)..
1. He feels that despite giving up the 1 cheap JG year that he can still get significant value in trade even as a QB on the franchise tag.
2. He thinks that JG will be (significantly) better then Brissett this year (2017) but MAYBE not next year (2018). IE Brissett will be comparable.
3. He believes that Brady will be a quality starter Next year at age 41 and or that Brissett will provide that same level of "insurance" that JG is providing this year. IE the ability to come in as the starter moving forward.
4. You also have to believe that BB is comfortable in an age 41 Brady or Brissett moving forward (2019,2020) rather then JG.
For my part I have become convinced that Brady is at most here through 2018, but no longer, and perhaps only for 2017. JG is the heir and will be the NE QB not later then 2019.
Maybe Bradys family situation is a factor (his mom, Giselle and the kids). Maybe he feels he has climbed the mountain and wants a new challange. Who knows. But I think behind the scenes he is singing a different tune then "playing till 45!"
My only conundrum is what purpose does the "Playing till I am 45" disinformation serve?
1. Avoid the media circus of a "Retirement tour"?
2. Some kind of personnel advantage to the Patriots? IE still able to sign ring chasing vets.
I believe this nails it.Jimmy G costs very little this year in salary. He'd cost $20MM plus to franchise/transition tag next year. So they arent really very similar decisions.
We have zero evidence Brady doesnt want to play for a long time. Im pretty skeptical he's going to be a starting QB at 45, but we have literally zero reason to believe that's not his intention right now.
ElCab pretty much nails it as did KFP. They'll keep a player they really like for a year and go from there. I think its going to end up with Jimmy walking or getting traded, but Brady is 40, who knows?
Do we even have any reliable reports that the Browns ever even offered the #12 pick? That's an honest question, I've lost track in this labyrinth and I don't find it out of the picture that his contract status was enough to lead them to not go that high. It still seems like projection to me, but I could be missing something.I believe this nails it.
Belichick doesn't have to make a decision on JG this offseason. He also knows that at some point a decision will need to made at QB, and that decision could come as early as next offseason. NFL actuarial tables tell us that the chances of needing to make that decision next year are not insignificant. And even though Brady is saying today that he wants to play until 45, even he could end up changing his mind by the time February rolls around. Few predicted Tony Romo's move to the broadcast booth.
It may seem strange to many of us that the #12 pick in the draft was not enough to sway Belichick's decision, but obviously yet another example of Belichick valuing things differently than the rest of us (and that's assuming the #12 pick was actually in play).
I don't know that we ever had good confirmation that 12 was offered, just every analyst saying that it made sense. The fact that they called after round 1 to see if they could get him makes me wonder if it ever was. I know they had a ton of picks later in the draft and next year, but I just don't think they offered anything that interested the Pats.Do we even have any reliable reports that the Browns ever even offered the #12 pick? That's an honest question, I've lost track in this labyrinth and I don't find it out of the picture that his contract status was enough to lead them to not go that high. It still seems like projection to me, but I could be missing something.
There were reports (Schefter?) that the Pats wanted two 1st round picks. From that, there was speculation that the Browns might offer a 2017 1st (#12) and a 2018 1st.Do we even have any reliable reports that the Browns ever even offered the #12 pick? That's an honest question, I've lost track in this labyrinth and I don't find it out of the picture that his contract status was enough to lead them to not go that high. It still seems like projection to me, but I could be missing something.
Talk of two first round picks -- that started 2 months ago, at least, popping up on NFLN March 7.There were reports (Schefter?) that the Pats wanted two 1st round picks. From that, there was speculation that the Browns might offer a 2017 1st (#12) and a 2018 1st.