I'm pretty sure that we have a thread about this each year, so pardon me if this doesn't belong on the main board, but it's something to discuss during these coldest, longest days.
Anyhow, full list and write up is here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/
This thread is to discuss reactions to the scores themselves, and the greater context in the AL East (luckily, even though there are only 10 other teams done, NYY, TOR, and BAL are among them). Do we think that the individual players are being over, under, or properly projected? Obviously, ZiPS loved the Red Sox last year, too, and look how that turned out (link to last year: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/).
Once again, Dan's computer loves the Sox, and our starters look to challenge the Blue Jays for most zWAR in the division, led by Mookie and Price. Pablo and Hanley, who were projected to provide 6 zWAR last season, come in at 2.6 this year, so expectations are pretty reasonable for them this time around, which should help with the floor for this projection. Kimbrel and Smith are also projected much more conservatively this year, so the bullpen may have more upside than this set of numbers is giving it credit for, especially if Koji can stay healthy and keep dipping into the fountain of youth. Porcello has gone from 3.5 projected zWAR to 2.3, but he is no longer expected to lead the rotation, so that's not a huge problem.
Most importantly, Brock Holt(!) is the only player in the ZiPS projections list to have an exclamation point after his name in the data tables.
Anyhow, full list and write up is here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/
This thread is to discuss reactions to the scores themselves, and the greater context in the AL East (luckily, even though there are only 10 other teams done, NYY, TOR, and BAL are among them). Do we think that the individual players are being over, under, or properly projected? Obviously, ZiPS loved the Red Sox last year, too, and look how that turned out (link to last year: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/).
Once again, Dan's computer loves the Sox, and our starters look to challenge the Blue Jays for most zWAR in the division, led by Mookie and Price. Pablo and Hanley, who were projected to provide 6 zWAR last season, come in at 2.6 this year, so expectations are pretty reasonable for them this time around, which should help with the floor for this projection. Kimbrel and Smith are also projected much more conservatively this year, so the bullpen may have more upside than this set of numbers is giving it credit for, especially if Koji can stay healthy and keep dipping into the fountain of youth. Porcello has gone from 3.5 projected zWAR to 2.3, but he is no longer expected to lead the rotation, so that's not a huge problem.
Most importantly, Brock Holt(!) is the only player in the ZiPS projections list to have an exclamation point after his name in the data tables.