There are certainly some contract that work out but the problem is the injury rate is so high that even a player's skill level when healthy is worth the top tier contract you likely lose games due to injury. So Jason peters had a 8.8 million cap hit in 2012 when he played no games; he might be worth it every other year but that's just a ton of wasted space on one player and it's really hard for his surplus value in healthy years to be worth that much. I'm also thinking of guys like Mankins who had a 7 million hit in 2012 and played 10 games (and played poorly in a bunch as he came back from injury) or Wilfork (8.6 million hit in 2012; played 4 games). In Revis's second contract with the jets he lost most of 2012 due to injury and had an 11.5 million cap hit that year and then he cost them 13 million in 2013 when he was playing in Tampa (a lost mitigated by the first round pick they got in the deal). Is 24.5 million over 2 years worth 2 games of Revis and a first? (Yes if you value a first at Sheldon Richardson, who they took with the Bucs pick--but perhaps not if you use the average value of the pick).Is that really the case that there is a very good chance it won't work out? I'm trying to think of big money non-QB deals and it seems to be a very mixed bag. Of course, one's definition of "big money" can vary. When you look at OL, it seems like they seem to work out more often than not. Looking backwards (and in some of these cases it is hard to evaluate as you don't want to only look at the first 3 years I assume), you have Joe Thomas, Jon Runyan, Jason Peters, et al on the positive side of the docket, Jahri Evans kind of in the "Hmmmm....." side of the docket and I struggled to think of guys who really stunk as FA OL, but it's early.
QBs are tough because--at least as I see it--they actually can provide meaningful surplus value on even a large contract. A healthy Brees/Manning/Brady/River gets you awfully close to the playoffs with even a marginal cast. The flip side is that below average QB play at 20 million gives you massive negative value that's hard to come back from.