2014 Horse Racing and Triple Crown Thread

Deathofthebambino

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I totally forgot that I had some prop bets on the race from early in the week.  I bet $50 to win $113 that the winner of the race would start with the letter C (Chrome, Commanding Curve, Candy Boy were all viable options).  I also had We MIss Artie beating A Rod and Uncle Sigh in straight head's up bets.  Sweet.  With those wins, I come out ahead on the race, after losing on Wildcat and the superfecta, but winning ATB on Chrome.
 

Greg29fan

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Untapable earned a 107 Beyer (California Chrome's best is a 109 in the San Felipe) yesterday and missed the mile and an eighth track record at CD by .04.  She's plenty fast.  But I want to see it on the track, that's where it should be decided.
 

Deathofthebambino

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I don't disagree that Untapable is plenty fast.  I love her.  I just don't think we've even seen Chrome run a full race yet (at least not since he started this win streak after he took it to the next level).  He's won his last 5 races by like 30 combined lengths and has been under a hand ride down the stretch in almost, if not all, of them.  I really believe the only thing that can beat Chrome right now is possibly distance, and even that's questionable.  It seems like every time Espinoza tells him to go, he goes and goes so fast and far that he eases up at the end.  I agree though, hope we get to see it happen horse to horse.
 

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IHateDaveKerpen said:
Strange to me that Affirmed's record is approaching near DiMaggio status.
Is it really Affirmed's record?  Doesn't the first person to set the record usually get that credit--Sir Barton in this case--with others tying them?  You can't even make a "most impressive winner" case for Affirmed, given Secretariat's existence (still all 3 race records) and the fact that Affirmed finished behind Seattle Slew both times they raced.  Being the last one to accomplish it seems more of a quirk than an accomplishment, in this case.
 

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I had CC across the board too and a couple of lesser show bets on We Miss Artie and Ride on Curlin that didn't cash, so I look to double my money for the day.  First time in a long time I've made money on the Derby.
 
I didn't get to see the race yet, but I listened to the live call on the radio (thanks SiriusXM) and it sounded like CC got out well early and had the easy trip on the rail.  I'm sure that was a big factor in the win, as he didn't have to try weaving his way through traffic and pass a dozen horses at the end.
 

Dehere

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Untapable to bypass Preakness.

CC will be 2-5 in Baltimore and rightly so. Hard to see how he will not come to Belmont with a chance to make history.
 

Titoschew

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If you're into Beyer figures, CC ran a 97 which is the lowest ever recorded for a winner. Don't think CC was ever asked for much more than he needed to give, especially given the tepid pace.
 

Greg29fan

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Dehere said:
Untapable to bypass Preakness.

CC will be 2-5 in Baltimore and rightly so. Hard to see how he will not come to Belmont with a chance to make history.
 
He will and should be 2-5 but Social Inclusion will be a very interesting new horse for him to match up with.   
 
This is also a good point about yesterday's time and Beyer figure - although some have said the slow time was at least partly due to a headwind and the track dried out with it sitting around for 2-2.5 hours
 
Randy Moss ‏@randy_moss_TV  41m
Interesting Derby pacefig note. Normally when pace slower than norm, finish is faster than norm. Yesterday pace subpar and so was finish.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Danoome, he was never really on the rail.  Espinosa literally ran the perfect race.  The word is that Chrome does not like to have dirt in his face, so he placed Chrome just to the outside of the first two horses, right about the middle of the track for most of the race, just off the lead.  Coming into the stretch turn, he started his move and then let him run coming out of the turn, and that was all she wrote.  It was a brilliant ride.  He didn't lead around the track, but also didn't have horses in front of him either, as he either ran side by side with the leaders or somewhere on the track behind them where they weren't kicking dirt back into Chrome.  Couldn't have done a better job and couldn't have had a better trip.
 
I really think people make too much of post positions in the triple crown races.  These races are all long enough that the field spreads out and horses have time to go and do pretty much whatever they want.  If you avoid any early trouble, especially with a giant field, while everything kind of sorts itself out, you should be able to win from anywhere when the race is over a mile, IMO.
 
I'm not a Beyer score guy at all, and yesterday's scores don't surprise me.  They just don't have the ability to take into account so many variables.  Yesterday's race didn't feature a lot of early speed, but it was full of horses that like to make one big move down the stretch.  That's pretty much how it played out, but nobody has the ability to match the big move of Chrome who likes to both get out front early and turn it on in the stretch.  That's why I keep coming back to the San Felipe.  He ran a 22.4 first stretch, and ran the mile in 1:33 in that race, and then still had the ability to pull away from the field at the top of the stretch.  That's just outrageous.  When you see a horse get out early like that, you either see them get caught in the end and lose, or you see them limp home.  He went out fast, and finished just as fast.  Yesterday, he didn't need to go out as fast to get into the position he wanted to be in, so he did what he needed to do until the stretch where he made his move.  If a couple of horses jumped out early and ran faster splits, he would have had to have done more early.  That's the only way he's getting beat.  The other horses have to show huge early speed, and make him work, so that he doesn't have the juice left at the top of the stretch.  But, if they do that, will they have anything left?  He's the total package.
 

Oil Can Dan

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My brother in law threw $20 down on Cali Chrome to win and Commanding Curve to place. Paid $3,400 apparently.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Yep, that's exactly right.  The bet is called an exacta (when you bet the horses that will come in first and second).  If he only bet $20, that means he bet them to finish in that exact order.  For $20 more, he could have bet them to come in either order.  You can also add more horses for additional money ie. bet 3 horses, and as long as 2 of them come in first and second, you win the exacta.
 
A $2 exacta paid $340, so he got 10x that amount because he bet $20.  That's an awesome wager.  To not even box it takes some balls, but sometimes it's better to be lucky than good.
 
For the record, Commanding Curve went off at 37-1, and that's why it paid so much.  There were only 2 horses in the field that had higher odds than him, and they finished 3rd and 4th to last respectively.  Took some serious foresight to see Commanding Curve being in the money. 
 
Danza came in 3rd, and he had pretty low odds at 8-1 (he was the third biggest favorite), and the trifecta (getting the first three horses) paid $3,424 on a $2 bet.
 
The fourth place finisher was Wicked Strong, who was the second favorite at 6-1, and the superfecta (first four horses) paid $15,383.
 
To have the top three favorites come in the top 4, and have payouts that high gives an idea of just what a longshot Commanding Curve was.  That's an amazing bet, but if Commanding Curve won the race, and Chrome came in 2nd, the exacta would have paid even more, and your brother in law would have been pissed he didn't box it.
 

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California Chrome is -130 to win the Preakness as of this morning. Next best odds are Commanding Curve at 8-1 and Social Inclusion at 15-1
 

mabrowndog

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So Wes Welker apparently won more than $100,000. With a police escort alongside, he started passing out $100 bills to everyone he walked past. Brady was also there, but no word if they were hanging together.
 

 

 
 

Titoschew

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Not sure who to blame in the Ride on Curlin connections/Borel tiff.  When you hire Borel for the Derby, you know what he's going to do, which is what he did.  Get to the rail at all costs even from the 18 path.  But, if he was given specific instructions to ride out of the gate and make progress to get closer to the rail in the run up to the turn, then that is what he should have done.  I need to watch the race a few more times to see the whole trip and if he ever picked up his feet, but he might be a threat with Rosario up if he's as fresh and the connections say.
 

Oil Can Dan

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Deathofthebambino said:
A $2 exacta paid $340, so he got 10x that amount because he bet $20.  That's an awesome wager.  To not even box it takes some balls, but sometimes it's better to be lucky than good.
Indeed! He only bet on Commanding Curve because of the West Point Thoroughbred connection. My father in law has bought a piece of their horses before. It was a bit of a throwaway bet which is why he didn't bother to box it. Any event, an amazing win!
 

WayBackVazquez

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WayBackVazquez said:
Cool. Good luck, man.
 
I'm set with the partnership I'm looking at, though; obviously I want my horse(s) to run out here on the west coast. The partnership I've been talking to and toying with for the last year or so is Blinkers On, and the horses are trained by Mike Puype, who I like a lot. Among the horses the partnership has owned are Turbulent Descent, which was a multiple G1 winner, and Red Outlaw, a 3-year old running now that I'm kicking myself for not getting in on last year ($3,495 for 5%). He's started 3-0, and already earned $115k.
Probably because I'm still on a high from my week in Kentucky, I finally pulled the trigger on ownership and locked in a piece of Goose Bumps, a 2 year-old filly bought at Ocala. She should debut at Del Mar in a few months, and I'll update with my experience.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Cool stuff WBV.  Good luck with it.  Can't wait to hear how it goes.  2 of the 3 fillies I bought are coming along really nicely in their training, and are expected to debut at the Saratoga meet, which I believe starts on July 29th or so, if not sooner, although George Weaver doesn't really like to race 2 year olds, so I imagine it won't be sooner.  The third is much bigger and heavier than the other two, so it's been a bit slower on the progress for her, but she'll be ready in the fall at the latest hopefully. 
 

WayBackVazquez

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WayBackVazquez said:
 
Ria Antonia is definitely in for the Preakness.
 
Also, Bejarano broke several bones in a nasty spill Saturday at Santa Anita and is out indefinitely. He rode Wildcat Red in the Derby; I don't know if he was scheduled to ride in the Preakness.
 
EDIT: Check that. Looks like Saez was on Wildcat Red.
 

Deathofthebambino

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You know, I don't think I paid attention to that at the time.  Bejarano was tapped to ride Wildcat Red, who was one of my Derby picks, and he got pulled when Saez became available when Cairo Prince got scratched.  I don't understand it, to be honest.  Bejarano is a legend in California, but he routinely gets ignored for the triple crown events.  He's basically the guy that rides all of Baffert's horses at Santa Anita, but he's only had 8 Derby mounts in his career (never won) and has only hit the board in 2 Triple Crown races.  He's one of my favorite jockeys, and it sucks that he got hurt.  Hope he's back soon.
 

WayBackVazquez

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We're in the midst of a heat wave out here, and Santa Anita has (wisely) cancelled tomorrow's races. I've gotta say though, this does not bode well for the first summer race season at the great race place.
 

Greg29fan

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Code:
Preakness (gr. I) $1,500,000 Guaranteed
Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Odds
1	Dynamic Impact	Miguel Mena	Mark Casse	12-1
2	General a Rod	Javier Castellano	Mike Maker	15-1
3	California Chrome	Victor Espinoza	Art Sherman	3-5
4	Ring Weekend	Alan Garcia	H. Graham Motion	20-1
5	Bayern	Rosie Napravnik	Bob Baffert	10-1
6	Ria Antonia	Calvin Borel	Tom Amoss	30-1
7	Kid Cruz	Julian Pimentel	Linda Rice	20-1
8	Social Inclusion	Luis Contreras	Manny Azpurua	5-1
9	Pablo Del Monte	Jeffrey Sanchez	Wesley Ward	20-1
10	Ride On Curlin	Joel Rosario	William Gowan	10-1
 

DanoooME

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Wow, if the morning line is 3-5, what are the odds he goes off 1-5 by post time?  Pretty good I would think.
 
I wish I had $500 to blow.  It would be really tempting to tri-box the field throwing out Chrome just to try hit a huge number.
 

Dehere

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Do you have $168 to blow? What about constructing it with CC off and Social Inclusion in any spot with All except CC in the other spots?

I think CC is going to canter home in front by open lengths but that would be a fun bet to split with a couple guys just to take a shot.
 

WayBackVazquez

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Dehere said:
Do you have $168 to blow? What about constructing it with CC off and Social Inclusion in any spot with All except CC in the other spots?

I think CC is going to canter home in front by open lengths but that would be a fun bet to split with a couple guys just to take a shot.
 
What do you think the true odds of CC not showing and SI showing are? Last year's trifecta paid only $1,000 for a $1 bet, even with the 3-5 favorite not showing and the winner going off at 15-1. I'd want to get better than 6-1 for that bet against CC.
 

DanoooME

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Dehere said:
Do you have $168 to blow? What about constructing it with CC off and Social Inclusion in any spot with All except CC in the other spots?

I think CC is going to canter home in front by open lengths but that would be a fun bet to split with a couple guys just to take a shot.
 
The only problems with that are:
 
1. It takes away the HUGE payout possibility of 3 longshots coming in.
2. I have to have faith that Social Inclusion is a lock to at least show.  I'm not convinced any horse in this field other than CC is a lock to make the top three.  Hell, the filly could be the big winner.
 

Dehere

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Greg29fan said:
 
ESPN Horse Racing ‏@espnhorseracing  6m
Our Jeannine Edwards reports: Cali Chrome heard coughing after gallop this morning. Trainer says biggest concern is him not catching a cold.
 
 
Jennie Rees of the Louisville C-J reported that CC coughed coming off the track the morning of the Derby. Doesn't seem like a big deal.
 
WayBackVazquez said:
 
What do you think the true odds of CC not showing and SI showing are? Last year's trifecta paid only $1,000 for a $1 bet, even with the 3-5 favorite not showing and the winner going off at 15-1. I'd want to get better than 6-1 for that bet against CC.
 
Just spitballing it I'd say CC is 5-10% to miss the board entirely and that SI would be 50-60% to hit the board *if we assume that CC is not going to show*. Sp what would fair odds be on that tri bet, something close to 20-1? You might get that if you believe, and I do, that CC will be 1-5.
 
Here's a bet that I find interesting: William Hill is listing CC as 3-1 to win Horse of the Year. Now, if he wins the Triple Crown he will undoubtedly be named HOY, so if you approach the bet as essentially a win parlay on two races in which he'll be maybe 1-5 and then 4-5 it seems like a pretty good play.
 
Anybody going to be on track this weekend besides me?
 

WayBackVazquez

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Dehere said:
 
Jennie Rees of the Louisville C-J reported that CC coughed coming off the track the morning of the Derby. Doesn't seem like a big deal.
 
 
Just spitballing it I'd say CC is 5-10% to miss the board entirely and that SI would be 50-60% to hit the board *if we assume that CC is not going to show*. Sp what would fair odds be on that tri bet, something close to 20-1? You might get that if you believe, and I do, that CC will be 1-5.
 
A $1 tri bet will not pay anywhere near $3360 if SI is the winner.
 
And if you're not going to make money (and you really won't) with SI as your key if he wins, then why key him? 
 

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WayBackVazquez said:
Probably because I'm still on a high from my week in Kentucky, I finally pulled the trigger on ownership and locked in a piece of Goose Bumps, a 2 year-old filly bought at Ocala. She should debut at Del Mar in a few months, and I'll update with my experience.
 
Outstanding.
 
Is this her? Good looking horse.
 
 

Titoschew

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First three races at Pimlico today were all over the dirt going 1 1/16m and have all been won from on or near the lead by runners grabbing an inside position on the turn.  Looks like those moving up on outside the 4-5 path are finding the going slow in the stretch.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Is anyone carrying the full card today from Pimlico on TV?  I just turned on TVG and it looks like they may be showing the next race, but I wasn't sure. I just can't get away from Chrome.  Will probably just throw a small bet on him to win, although I hate taking favorites.  Just think he's too good for this field.  May throw a flier on the filly across the board with short money, just to get some action in, but I just don't see CC getting beat, and I usually just pass on a race where I truly think the favorite is head and shoulders better than everyone. 
 
Is anyone carrying the full card on TV from Pimlico?
 

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Deathofthebambino said:
Is anyone carrying the full card today from Pimlico on TV?  I just turned on TVG and it looks like they may be showing the next race, but I wasn't sure. I just can't get away from Chrome.  Will probably just throw a small bet on him to win, although I hate taking favorites.  Just think he's too good for this field.  May throw a flier on the filly across the board with short money, just to get some action in, but I just don't see CC getting beat, and I usually just pass on a race where I truly think the favorite is head and shoulders better than everyone. 
 
Is anyone carrying the full card on TV from Pimlico?
 
NBCSN has the undercard up to the Sir Barton Stakes.  The Sir Barton and Dixie are only available on HRTV or online video.
 

Deathofthebambino

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A horse named "Seedsandstemsagain" just ran second in a race at Golden Gate.  Might be my favorite horse name in a while.  One of the three horses I bought is Twist 'n Bake, which is pretty good too. 
 

Deathofthebambino

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If you believe in a jockey getting hot, as I do, Castellano has had 4 mounts so far today, and he's finished 1st, 1st, 2nd and 3rd.  He's riding General ARod today after a change following the Derby.
 

WayBackVazquez

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My (not big) money is going on Ring Wekkend (at 26-1 currently, this is a no brainer to me) and Kid Cruz at 10-1. 
 
I'll be rooting for CC, but can't play at this price.
 

Deathofthebambino

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This might have been a more impressive race than the Derby.  With a much smaller field, every horse had a shot to beat him, and it seemed like 3-4 gave it their absolute best shot, and they just couldn't do it.  Curlin and Social Inclusion both made full runs at him and it seemed like Chrome just had another gear whenever he needed it.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Only thing stopping him is the distance, and if another horse makes him work really hard early on.  These first two trips have really set up well.  Espinosa has been able to get him in space, just off the lead, without another horse kicking dirt in his face (something that CC apparently does not like), but the paces weren't really fast.  Thus, when he needs to make his move, he's got more than enough gas in the tank to finish.
 
With the added length of the Belmont, the roadmap to beat him is early speed (a horse or two get out really early and run as far and as fast as they can), which will force CC to work really hard to keep pace and stay out of the traffic, which is where he doesn't want to be.  Then, once the early speed fades and he makes his move, he's going to be more tired, and another horse can get a late run on him.  That's the only way he gets beat.
 

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So much for people pointing to the slow Kentucky Derby time. Missed Secretariat's Preakness record by 1.84
 
Edit: Apparently I read that wrong.
 
Secretariat: 1:53
California Chrome: 1:54.84
 

Deathofthebambino

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Speaking of hot jockeys, Paco Lopez just won his seventh race of the day at Monmouth, which I believe is a new track record.