Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
Why should Tuukka be "punished" for having a good backup? Colorado used the ancient Giguere to back up Varlamov; Boston using the much younger Johnson. Is it really a surprise that Johnson's numbers are better than Giguere's? If the Colorado backups don't pick up points all that well that's likely a reflection of their own play rather than Varlamov bailing them out all year.
It’s not a surprise at all that Johnson had better numbers than Giguere. I could have told you that would happen before the season started. Boston’s goalies consistently do this under Julien. Rask is a great goalie, but the Bruins also run a phenomenal system that’s incredibly friendly to goalies. The Bruins have led the NHL in SV% as a team in four of the past six seasons. Backups and starters alike do very well in Boston. Julien and the Bruins absolutely have a working system that makes goalies look better.
Year: Starter, Backup
2013-14: Rask (2.04, .930), Johnson (2.10, .925)
2012-13: Rask (2.00, .929), Khudobin (2.32, .920)
2011-12: Rask (2.05, .929), Thomas (2.36, .920)
2010-11: Thomas (2.00, .938), Rask (2.67, .918)
2009-10: Rask (1.97, .931), Thomas (2.56, .915)
2008-09: Thomas (2.10, .933), Fernandez (2.59, .910)
2007-08: Thomas (2.44, .921), Auld (2.32, .919)
Year: Rank of Bruins
2013-14: 2nd GAA, 1st SV%
2012-13: 3rd GAA, 3rd SV%
2011-12: 6th GAA, 7th SV%
2010-11: 3rd GAA, 1st SV%
2009-10: 2nd GAA, 1st SV%
2008-09: 1st GAA, 1st SV%
2007-08: 11th GAA, 6th SV%
Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
Plus, all but 3 of the non-Varlamov games were played by Giguere; Berra and Aittokallio played the other 3 and were beyond awful in a very limited number of minutes, so they badly skew the backup GAA numbers. Varlamov's GAA was 2.41, Giguere's was 2.62. That's not a huge gulf at all, really.
The difference between Varlamov’s 2.41 GAA and Giguere’s 2.62 GAA isn’t huge, but it’s certainly bigger than the difference between Rask and Johnson. Also, Giguere faced 3+ shots/game fewer than Varlamov, which helped suppress his GAA numbers. Their .927 SV% and .913 SV% respectively shows a pretty decent chasm in performance level. It is, again, a much greater difference than the one found between Rask and Johnson.
Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
I think Johnson's numbers, while benefitting from the system in front of him, are more a reflection on Johnson than anything else.
It's certainly possible that Johnson is better than Giguere, if not quite likely at this point. But it doesn't explain why his numbers are THAT good. Do you think Johnson is better than Varlamov as well since his GAA was lower and SV% very comparable? Just how good do you think Johnson is? Because the numbers alone suggest he’s a top-10 goalie in the NHL.
Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
Also, if the goalies with the Bruins are just a product of the system, how come Khudobin has better numbers this year playing for Carolina than he did playing for Boston last year? (2.32, 920 for Boston last year, 2.30, 926 for Carolina this year). It's because he's good, just like Johnson is, and it doesn't have as much to do with the system as you're indicating.
I don’t have a good reason for why Khudobin was as good if not better in Carolina this year as he was in Boston last year. The biggest thing may simply be sample size. We’re talking about 50 games over two seasons. However, looking behind just Khudobin, there are other data points to consider.
Rask has only known Boston, so it’s tough to compare him. But otherwise, Tim Thomas went from mediocre starter to Vezina-caliber the moment Julien came to Boston. In 108 games in Boston before Julien was coach, Thomas had a 3.00 GAA and .909 SV%. In 270 games under Julien, he posted a 2.28 GAA and .926 SV%. Auld put up his career best season in Boston. Johnson doesn’t have an NHL track record, but just put up his best numbers of his career next to his senior year in the CCHA.
Goalies of all levels thrive in Boston with Julien at the helm. This isn't to say Rask isn't talented or is not an elite goalie. I believe he absolutely is. I just think Varlamov was better.
When looking at all NHL goalies to win more than two games this year (70 of them), only six faced more shots on average than Varlamov (nobody actually faced more shots as Varlamov had a very comfortable lead in overall shots against). The only goalies to face more shots were, not surprisingly, from just three teams. They were from Toronto (Reimer, Bernier), Ottawa (Lehner, Anderson), and Washington (Holtby, Neuvirth). All three of those teams finished in the bottom half of the league and missed the playoffs. Colorado was 27th in Corsi differential this year (Boston 4th), 27th in Fenwick (Boston 6th), and 26th in shot differential (Boston 6th). The only thing that separated Colorado from being a very questionable wild card or lottery pick was Varlamov.