The only lineup change last year between game 4 and 5 was he put Bergeron back in. The horror.
We killed him last year for being late to adjust. Now he's being skewered for adjusting.
Round 1 Bruins-Leafs
- Thread starter The Napkin
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We killed him last year for being late to adjust. Now he's being skewered for adjusting.
Agree with your larger point, but kind of funny that the last time they were road underdogs in a series they went 3-0 at home and 0-4 on the road to Carolina two years ago.
That's what happens when you lose. You go with a one-goalie plan and win, you're a genius, but if you lose, you're a dummy. Similarly, if you rotate the goalies and you win, you're an amazing coach, but if you lose, you're an idiot - just go with the "best" one.
Same thing in every sport - if it works and you win, you're smart. If it doesn't work and you lose, you're stupid.
Putting Bergeron back in last year was a mistake as he was clearly not in game shape after his injury.
As for adjusting this year, they kicked the hell out of Toronto in Game 4 and his adjustment was to bench his best faceoff guy for Game 5. Well, that and shuffling out Shattenkirk, which was fine.
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And none of those games were close until Game 7. What a strange series that was.
I suspect this is why so many coaches don't try a rotation or otherwise intentionally limit their options during the playoffs, so as to minimize the opportunity for them to screw things up by tinkering.
But it hasn't played out again. One game has played out. That's why the play the series.
The inspiring confidence piece is laughable right now. Last year was not good. But it's somehow a knock against him that his team is currently up 3-2 in a series? What the fuck are we doing here?
Given the reactions to the two losses (vs. the 3 wins), I continue to feel comfortable with my 16-0 comment.
They were also home underdogs in that series. I give that team credit for pushing Carolina to 7. They almost got it to OT as well IIRC.
This is just revisionist history. Bergeron was a monster in game 5 last year. 28-7 shot attempt advantage, 14-4 scoring chance advantage, 7-1 high danger chance advantage, 82% xGF% in 14 minutes. He's a first ballot hall of famer and the best player on the team. If the doctors and player say he can play, then he plays. If he didn't play Bergeron and they lose, Monty gets raked over the coals for that too.
Quibble with Beecher sitting last night all you want. Brazeau played a good game. They didn't lose because John effin Beecher was in the press box.
The bolded is quite key imo, thanks for pointing it out. As for your last question - the same thing that happens in Mark Blount the minute a current iteration of a celtics team does something bad that reminds us of the failings of years past. Aka panic. Which is why I try to avoid the forums after single game losses but Id rather do this than work today
It's a knock against him that the team came out flat and uninspired at home with the chance to knock out an opponent.
And if it was just one time, no biggie. But as you note, last year was awful, and now it's the 4th straight game a Monty-coached team has lost when they have a chance to end a series. At some point we can say, what the fuck is going on with them when they get up in a series?
On a small micro level, shit does happen. I get that. One shift, one period, one game, sure. Shit happens.
On a larger macro level, shit does not just happen, I firmly believe that there are reasons for larger patterns of play over a few years if the core elements remain the same.
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Also, for the record, I'd start Swayman in Game 6. He was excellent last night in the face of little help in front of him.
I see no reason to go away from him right now, rotation talk be damned.
I see no reason to go away from him right now, rotation talk be damned.
How about when they lose the actual series instead of playing up fantasies about how this team is soft when they have two more opportunities to close it out because, and I'll state this again, they have a 3 games to 2 lead in a best of 7 playoff series? Call me crazy but I like to play the results instead of a hypothetical around what may happen if A, B, or C happens in the next two games. I get overreacting is your thing but it's tiresome after every game.
If they lose the series, that will be a different conversation and will involve coaching and player changes.
We are just talking about once again coming out flat last night at home with a chance to put the series to bed. That is the result being discussed. I can't see how it's somehow unfair to talk about a pattern under Monty up to this point of doing this. Obviously YMMV.
EDIT: what I should really do is be on the road again for the next game. In all 3 wins I have been away from home doing family stuff and away from a computer. I have another family trip this weekend, so that should help if necessary.
Gives me hope I’ll see some of the end. My daughter’s play is at 730p (ugh). Whether or not I’ll want to see the end is another story.
They had no LH faceoff man and TOR dominated faceoffs esp in the offensive end for TOR which lead to constant sustained pressure. JVR can't fucking skate anymore but he is playing over John Beecher? B's should have lost by 3-4 in regulation to a team missing their best player and NHL G scoring leader. Monty got cute and got burnt.
They have Zacha, Frederic and Boqvist as LH centers. The impact of Beecher on draws, specifically d zone, is close to negligible. We are talking maybe 3 draws over the course of the game, max. He had 12 D zone starts through 4 games, only 8 at even strength. And they can't use him as a speicialist since the bulk of those draws come after icing.
The swtich was Brazeau for Beecher. JVR took Lauko's spot. I would've just left Beecher in too, thought he was fine in the first 4 games and 4th line 10:00 a night wingers are fungible, but Brazeau ended up having a pretty good game. 58% xGF% with a few nice scoring chances/dangerous passes.
I also disagree on JVR. He replaced Lauko. The 3rd line was a disaster through 2 games, Lauko sporting a 19% xGF%. Monty put JVR in, took Lauko out, bumped Freddy to the middle between JVR and Heinen and that line has calmed down and contributed. JVR has the 3rd best xGF% on the team, despite only 27% o zone starts.
The thing is - they did weather it. They even got really close in shots IIRC. But they never even seemed to threaten, really. They just never got going, even after the goal.
Also was the ice a problem last night? Pucks were not sticking to sticks and there were so many whiffs from both teams.
Ice was terrible last night. That's another long standing problem. The Bruins are built for speed and skill and in the playoffs when it's warmer the ice at the Garden gets really bad and actively works against them.
Just to make SJH's head explode...
The B's D was turtling under pressure and sending pucks to the opposing side like they were MAC JONES.
The B's D was turtling under pressure and sending pucks to the opposing side like they were MAC JONES.
Mac is gone and can't hurt me any more. All I wanted was for him to be off the team.
I was a little surprised that all 3 of Maroon, JVR and Brazeau were in the lineup. I'm not skilled enough to know what Brazeau's deficiencies are (is he a big defensive liability?), but he seems to be quite skilled offensively below the dots -- where they really need it. JVR was that guy for a few months, but whether it's just age or the illness I saw mentioned in some stories that just sapped him, he's not that guy this week. I understand the theory behind Maroon. I'm not sure he's got the game legs even for his relatively low ice time. I prefer Becher to JVR. Lauko/Maroon might be closer, but I love Lauko and I dont think I have a handle on Maroon's effectiveness.
The invisible scars are the worst ones.
Boqvist is treated as a W for faceoffs. He took 143 in the reg season and lost 65%, Poitras by comparison lost 143 but did win 111. They also avoid Frederic for faceoffs as he only took 291 draws losing 55% compared to Beecher who won 273 in 30 less GP. Zacha had been a good LH C at 54%, same as Beecher, for the season but had his lunch handed to him last night. Off game for him but besides that they didn't have another dependable LHC for draws.
They had 26 d zone draws last night. They went 12-14.
8 of those came after icings so nothing can be done, got to live with the players who were on the ice. They went 3-5, Zacha being 0-4. Frederic 1-1 (of course the 1 loss ending up in the back of the net), Boqvist 1-0.
They went 9-9 when Monty could get who he wanted on the ice, which is a reasonable outcome and I don't think it's a flashing red light. One of the penalties for icing the puck is you can't change and thus Zacha, their worst faceoff guy, had to take a bunch. Having Beecher on the bench doesn't solve for that, the issue is the Zacha line couldn't get the puck out and had to resort to icing which led to him being forced to take a lot of draws which he lost.
Edit: I'm wrong on Zacha, he was a 54% faceoff guy during the year. Had him mixed up with someone else.
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Only knock on Monty last night was taking Beecher out of the lineup. That garbage performance is overwhelmingly on the players. Not sure if it was overconfidence, a lack of focus, or both. They openly talked about knowing Toronto was coming out as the more desperate team and had to match their intensity. 2 shots in the first 24 minutes or so does not qualify as a good start. They found their game late, but waiting that long can't happen again.
On a brighter note, Brandon Carlo is good for Game 6.
View: https://twitter.com/_TyAnderson/status/1785711308039426504
On a brighter note, Brandon Carlo is good for Game 6.
View: https://twitter.com/_TyAnderson/status/1785711308039426504
The is is the same doomposting that happened after game 2. Which I’m sure will be equally forgotten should they close things out in Game 6.
as was pointed out then, despite overachieving on their point total and riding an early hot start this team is fairly close to the Leafs. They are not the Panthers in terms of talent. This going 6 games isn’t super surprising.
I do think they missed a chance to close out with Matthews out. They deserve criticism but the level of vitriol and doom casting is over the top. I also think not enough notice is given that the refs screwed the Bs over multiple times in the game and Woll really played a very strong game. Shit happens
I said it post game 2 and I’ll say it again, put me on Team Optimistic. They’ve got the better goaltender and are much better on special teams. That should be enough to see them through as the rest of it is roughly matched
as was pointed out then, despite overachieving on their point total and riding an early hot start this team is fairly close to the Leafs. They are not the Panthers in terms of talent. This going 6 games isn’t super surprising.
I do think they missed a chance to close out with Matthews out. They deserve criticism but the level of vitriol and doom casting is over the top. I also think not enough notice is given that the refs screwed the Bs over multiple times in the game and Woll really played a very strong game. Shit happens
I said it post game 2 and I’ll say it again, put me on Team Optimistic. They’ve got the better goaltender and are much better on special teams. That should be enough to see them through as the rest of it is roughly matched
The problem is, we're getting into lucky bounce territory where chaos and randomization can take the series from them. Some of that happened last night, but they also played like garbage for a majority of the game.
The way I see it, there is justified pessimism with how this team shows up in big spots. It's not as if the team came out and played a great game yesterday (outside of Sway) and got beat, they literally didn't show up for the entire first period and didn't look like a team that cared until the 3rd. I don't know how you can be optimistic that they'll turn that around in game 6, it's a recurring theme and I think it's completely reasonable for folks to call that out.
I have zero confidence at this point that they can close out a series. If they do, then I'll reevaluate my stance in the next series, but it's a problem and I don't think we need to have blinders on to the fact that they have shown up small in big games the last two playoffs.
Regarding the bolded "zero confidence" phrase, does that mean you are predicting them to lose, or just dont have confidence that they'll win? If you had used "little confidence" I would assume the latter...but with "zero" feels like the former. Genuinely curious how you think the rest of the series plays out?
I'm expecting them to blow it, to be honest. The performance last night inspired little confidence. To be fair, I think they have a great chance to win the series, but if they show up in game 6 like they did last night, I won't be expecting a win in game 7.
It was almost like they were surprised that Toronto gave a shit last night and had no idea how to handle the intensity. It was fucking bizarre.
Got it, thanks for response and glad you took the question as a genuine one, not a snarky one (felt a little like it came off like that...wasnt meant to). We may be parsing words a bit here your last sentence, because it felt to me like they handled Toronto's intensity well, but couldnt match it.
One difference from last year is no matter who is in net for game 6, it's quite likely it will be a far better performance than Ullmark last year. What a gong show that game was. the B's offense put up 5 that game, if do that tomorrow it probably ends the series.
This is pretty much where I’m at. I expect them to blow it. I feel like I watch the same movie every year with this team. I can’t expect anything different this time.
I’m sure at the end we’ll hear about injuries, or the flu, the refs, or whenever excuse but it’s the same shit, they end up losing to a team that they should beat. It’s happened way too much to expect otherwise. Hopefully Toronto chokes worse than they do (again) this time. But I’ll be pleasantly surprised. I sure wouldn’t bet on it.
Expect them to blow it - this is the doom posting I was referring to
So you think the team that kicked Tor’s ass games 1, 3 and 4 is gone, or that they simply turn into a different team under pressure of a close out game? Or is it just “plan for the worst” mentality, thus you can’t be disappointed?
So you think the team that kicked Tor’s ass games 1, 3 and 4 is gone, or that they simply turn into a different team under pressure of a close out game? Or is it just “plan for the worst” mentality, thus you can’t be disappointed?
Well TBF Ullmark was hurt last year and Monty kept him in there when it was clear he couldn't play effectively.
They SHOULD get a better performance than that in Toronto, but then again they should have shown up last night too.
I won't speak for him, he's more than capable of handling himself, but to me the bolded is exactly what happens. They've lost 5 straight close out games and to my untrained eyes it certainly seems clear that they definitely play a lot differently in close out games than they do at other times. They play not to screw up instead of playing to win. The fiasco in Game 6 last year was also a coaching error to boot.
The team on the ice last night was a pale shadow of the team out there for games 1,3, and 4.
No I think they collectively shit down their legs in big games. As an organization. It’s been happening for a long time.
Oh totally. I just didnt feel like reliving why the goalie performance was so bad...thanks for that
Overall point was the bruins skaters certainly responded in game 6 last year, and if they do the same tomorrow Id bet heavily on a win.
IIRC, the Celtics lost the 1985 Finals series because they were flat for most of it.
I think it’s mostly the plan for the worst mentality. I mean we are still scarred Boston fans to a degree.
It's also just a mentally easier stance to have, on a couple levels. Like you said, plan for the worst (aka plan for what happens to every team every year except the champ). But also, if I sit here and say "the bruins are going to blow it, I am 100% convinced of that," I get to brag a little in a "i told you so" kind of way if they do blow it...but I also get to celebrate if they win, because they the team Im rooting for! I dont think anyone does this intentionally by the way...and there's certainly some level of rationale behind expecting the Bs to lose this series...but overall I think it's just a natural/subconsious part of being a fan.
This. But also, the way they lost leads to some legit (not just emotional reaction) concerns for me. More specifically, the way they lost involved
* other team down their best player
* bruins lacking effort/energy for most of the game
* questionable lineup changes from Monty
Maybe if we only had one of those things and they lose, its more of an emotional reaction than legit concerns.
Win or lose this series, there's probably a good discussion to be had after it about the kind of leadership on the team and in the org and if having a certain type of player as a leader leads to certain kinds of performance issues. The Chara/Bergeron/Marchand line of leaders has been active since 2006 and it's undoubtedly been a great thing for the team. They've won a LOT since Chara came on board and started the Bruins culture we love today. They've also blown a LOT of series leads in that time as well. I'd have to check to see if they blow more series leads than the average team.
It's probably way too mushy for definitive talk, but I do wonder at times.
They've lost 2 series since 2011 that they've had a lead heading into a game 6. 2014 against Montreal and last year.
But they are losers and it's all over.
It's pre-2004 Red Sox mentality here.
But they are losers and it's all over.
It's pre-2004 Red Sox mentality here.
So, getting away from feels for a minute, MoneyPuck has Swayman as far and away the best goalie in the playoffs, with a raw 9.6 GSAE, and a stunning 2.386 GSAE/60. Translated, he’s taking an average of 2 goals a game away from the Leafs. That said, Woll already has 2.3 GSAE in 4 periods and an overtime, for a 1.729 per 60 rate. For reference, Ullmark is even, and Samsonov allowed nearly half a goal per 60 above expected.
So far this series is playing out almost exactly like FL last year. Comfortable home win, bad home loss, two big road wins. Difference in that B's actually showed up in game 5 last year they just ran into Bob who stood on his head but they outshot FL by a near 2-1 margin 47-25.
Now they get to go to TOR and presumably face TOR at full health for the first time this series assuming Matthews is finally recovered. If that is the case I expect a TOR win leaving it to a game 7 which has not been kind to Bs at home recently.
I get that, but teams change significantly over years. I think a comparison to last years team is valid but beyond that there is so much changeover the only strong commonality is the B on the sweater. I don’t buy that the teams performance 2-3 years ago has
any bearing on how they performed yesterday.
Last year they choked, no doubt. This year their biggest sin is allowing the series to get extended to 6 against a similarly matched opponent. If they were truly evenly matched you’d expect this to happen about 2/3 of the time. Let’s say the Bs are better but not a powerhouse - maybe then half the time (statistically) the series makes it to Game 6.
I personally don’t believe we should throw out the performance of their wins and only focus on their performance in their losses. I can see others disagree
Odds below if teams are perfectly matched
They also lost against teams that they were better than in 2019 and 2021. They blew a 3-1 lead to Toronto in 2013 & 2018. Yeah they won those coin flips, but those shouldn’t have been coin flips in the first place.
Now what I want more than anything is to be completely wrong, have them kick Toronto’s ass in game 6 and go on a cup run from there, I’m just not expecting it. The football has been pulled too many times.