2017 AL Wild Card Chase

dynomite

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It bears repeating how remarkable it is that the Twins are likely to grab the 2nd Wild Card.

The Twins lost 100 games last year and sold off a few pieces at the deadline this year. Their ace is a journeyman vet with a 4.03 career ERA. 44-year-old Bartolo Colon was their midseason addition and remains a fixture in their rotation. Their 1B and franchise icon is an aging contact hitter with 6 HR. And their young 3B in the midst of a breakout season is on the shelf with a leg issue and might not play again this season.

And yet here they are holding off the Angels and Mariners, with their star studded lineups and paper mache rotations. How? Brian Dozier, uneven but emergent seasons from their top prospects who many wrote off for dead after terrible performances last year (Berrios and Buxton), and solid showings by a bunch of guys no one outside of Minnesota could pick out of a lineup: Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, and Eduardo Escobar.

Would be fun to see them get a champagne bath at the beginning of October, and positively delightful if they followed it up by going into Yankee Stadium on Wild Card Day and overcoming decades of franchise history against the Evil Empire by sending that team to the golf course for the winter.
 
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trekfan55

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It bears repeating how remarkable it is that the Twins are likely to grab the 2nd Wild Card.

The Twins lost 100 games last year and sold off a few pieces at the deadline this year. Their ace is a journeyman vet with a 4.03 career ERA. 44-year-old Bartolo Colon was their midseason addition and remains a fixture in their rotation.
Wait, it's even better than that. They acquired Jaime Garcia for the stretch run, had a few bad games and decided to sell him off... to the Yankees.
 

simplicio

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It bears repeating how remarkable it is that the Twins are likely to grab the 2nd Wild Card.

The Twins lost 100 games last year and sold off a few pieces at the deadline this year. Their ace is a journeyman vet with a 4.03 career ERA. 44-year-old Bartolo Colon was their midseason addition and remains a fixture in their rotation. Their 1B and franchise icon is an aging contact hitter with 6 HR. And their young 3B in the midst of a breakout season is on the shelf with a leg issue and might not play again this season.

And yet here they are holding off the Angels and Mariners, with their star studded lineups and paper mache rotations. How? Brian Dozier, uneven but emergent seasons from their top prospects who many wrote off for dead after terrible performances last year (Berrios and Buxton), and solid showings by a bunch of guys no one outside of Minnesota could pick out of a lineup: Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, and Eduardo Escobar.

Would be fun to see them get a champagne bath at the beginning of October, and positively delightful if they followed it up by going into Yankee Stadium on Wild Card Day and overcoming decades of franchise history against the Evil Empire by sending that team to the golf course for the winter.
Even if nothing else good happens in October, if the Sox lose immediately or the Cardinals make a run and crush Cleveland to win the series, I will consider the year a success if the Twins can eliminate the Yankees.
 

terrynever

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Wait, it's even better than that. They acquired Jaime Garcia for the stretch run, had a few bad games and decided to sell him off... to the Yankees.
Garcia made just one start for the Twins, pitched into the 7th inning, 3 runs, then was traded to NY where in 6 starts he has had four respectable starts. Girardi pulled him after 4.2 innings in his last start after yielding just one run. Basically, Garcia is the No. 6 starter and allows Girardi to give his starters an extra day of rest when the schedule and pennant race permit.
 

judyb

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Seems like you're misunderstanding the point there, they lost every game except Garcia's start from the time they traded for him until they traded him at the deadline, going from buyers to sellers in that week and still got back in it and seem likely to face the team they sold him to in the WC game. That's unique enough to be amusing.
 

terrynever

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Seems like you're misunderstanding the point there, they lost every game except Garcia's start from the time they traded for him until they traded him at the deadline, going from buyers to sellers in that week and still got back in it and seem likely to face the team they sold him to in the WC game. That's unique enough to be amusing.
You're right. I got it wrong.
 

Leather

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Twins responding by coming back down by 5 to lead 13-5.
 

Leather

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The Twins just can never beat the Yankees when it matters. It's uncanny.
 

jon abbey

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Latest update:

NY 84-67
Twins 78-73

Angels 76-74
Rangers 74-76
Mariners 74-77
Royals 73-77
Rays 73-78
Orioles 73-79

This race has become a lot more clear since this thread was last updated:

NY 80-66
Twins 77-69

Angels 74-72
Mariners 74-73
Rangers 72-74
Royals 72-74
Orioles 72-75
Rays 72-75
 

Leather

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The good news for the Twins is that the Angels have the Indians and Astros on deck, and they both have home field to play for, so there won't be any backing down.

After today, while the Twins also have a 3 game set with Cleveland, they play seven (7!) games against the lowly Tigers. The bad news is that, aside from their remaining 5 against CLE and HOU, Anaheim plays their remaining games against the White Sox and Mariners, who are about as bad as the Tigers.

It will be close.
 

jon abbey

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Twins and Angels both lose again, watch the Rangers coming up on the outside. They have won three in a row and are two out in the loss column, 7 of their final 11 are against the A's.
 

Leather

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Eh, I dunno. Barring a Twins collapse (which is possible), making up 2.5 games in 10/11 games is a pretty tall order. If

538 still has the Twins at a 63% chance of making the playoffs, with the Angels at 22% and the Rangers at 9%.

One of my kids is a die-hard Twins fan (at age 5!) and he wakes up and literally first thing asks what the score was (yesterday he asked when he got home). I've about had it with the waterworks, but he's getting a great education on why, as a family, we can all rally around Yankees hatred.
 

luckysox

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Eh, I dunno. Barring a Twins collapse (which is possible), making up 2.5 games in 10/11 games is a pretty tall order. If

538 still has the Twins at a 63% chance of making the playoffs, with the Angels at 22% and the Rangers at 9%.

One of my kids is a die-hard Twins fan (at age 5!) and he wakes up and literally first thing asks what the score was (yesterday he asked when he got home). I've about had it with the waterworks, but he's getting a great education on why, as a family, we can all rally around Yankees hatred.
Dude, i remember when your kids were born. Time flies by on a baseball board. Here's to the Twinkies making the Wildcard. And may they be cursed to play the Yankees. And may they end their little curse. So be it.
 

E5 Yaz

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This is a crucial weekend for the Twins. Minnesota is at Detroit, while the Angels are in Houston. Since the Astros still have home-field to play for, the Twins have a real chance to gain a game or two if they shake off the MFY series and get down to business
 

wilked

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Quite the barnburner for WC2

Twins/Angels/Rangers/Royals/Mariners/Rays all 4-6 in their last 10. Battle of attrition
 

jon abbey

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Lindor with a 3 run HR in the 5th, CLE 4-1 over LAA currently.
 

jon abbey

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And it ends with the same score, TEX can tie LAA with a win tonight behind Hamels against SEA and Paxton.
 

dynomite

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Twins run it up in Detroit, coast to a 12-1 win and a 2.5 game lead for the 2nd Wild Card with 9 to play.

In typical Twins fashion, they scored 12 runs despite a) not hitting a HR and b) no one player having more than 2 RBI, and they only allowed one run despite c) their starter not making it out of the 5th inning.

The mere possibility of this team sending the Yankees packing on Wild Card Game Day continues to fill me with hope and joy.
 

Leather

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In fairness, the Twins had 2 (!) streaks this year of 16 games when they hit a home run in each game, and they have 194 HRs this season, which is smack-dab in the middle of MLB.

Their team OPS is 10th in MLB, 4th in the AL.

They've quietly assembled a solid offense.

What really sucks is that Sano will probably miss the postseason. That's a bummer.
 

jon abbey

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Twins win, Angels lose, Rangers down 3-1 to the A's in the 4th.

MIN 80-74
TEX 76-76
LAA 76-77
 

jon abbey

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Rangers lose also, Twins at Yankees in the coin flip game is looking very likely:

NYY 85-68
MIN 80-74

LAA 76-77
TEX 76-77
 

Murderer's Crow

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Twins run it up in Detroit, coast to a 12-1 win and a 2.5 game lead for the 2nd Wild Card with 9 to play.

In typical Twins fashion, they scored 12 runs despite a) not hitting a HR and b) no one player having more than 2 RBI, and they only allowed one run despite c) their starter not making it out of the 5th inning.

The mere possibility of this team sending the Yankees packing on Wild Card Game Day continues to fill me with hope and joy.
They were hitting against Jordan Zimmerman. It was the most predictable blowout of the day. I even dropped a closer in my fantasy postseason to pick up Polanco just because of Zimmerman.
 

E5 Yaz

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Rangers lose also, Twins at Yankees in the coin flip game is looking very likely:

NYY 85-68
MIN 80-74

LAA 76-77
TEX 76-77
Rule of .500: If the Twins go 4-4, Angels and/or Rangers would have to go 8-1 to tie
 

wilked

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At this point all that's practically left is who gets HFA throughout the playoffs, CLE or HOU
 

NYCSox

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Coin-flip game is going to be "heads I win, tails you lose." No reason for Twins to bother showing up (as if they have in the past).
 

GrandSlamPozo

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I'm still not sure what the point of the play-in game is. The Yankees are obviously a better team than the Twins and shouldn't be forced to play an extra game to prove it. Same thing in the NL with the Dbacks and Rockies/Cards/Brewers. What does the league even get out of it? Sure they get one extra game's worth of revenue, but this would likely be dwarfed by the amount of money they would lose by having the Twins in the Division series rather than the Yankees on the off chance that the Twins somehow win the play-in game.
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, MLB doesn't care much about building a system to reward the best teams, it hasn't been a priority for them for a long time (seriously). This is a sport that had the results of an exhibition game determine home field advantage in the World Series up until this year.
 

Leather

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Let's just start the CLE-LAD World Series, while we're at it.
 

E5 Yaz

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Hell, just crown the team with the best overall record the WS champions
 

dynomite

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I'm still not sure what the point of the play-in game is. The Yankees are obviously a better team than the Twins and shouldn't be forced to play an extra game to prove it.
We've had this debate around here a lot. Ultimately this argument doesn't really seem compelling to me. Why does it just stop there, for instance. The Indians are better than the Red Sox by record and stats, right? So why bother with playoffs at all?

Playoffs are about rewarding the team that plays best during a small sample of games. That's inherently not about finding the "best" overall team.

Yeah, MLB doesn't care much about building a system to reward the best teams, it hasn't been a priority for them for a long time (seriously). This is a sport that had the results of an exhibition game determine home field advantage in the World Series up until this year.
Exactly. From 1969 to 1993 you either won the East or West Division in your League or you played golf for the winter.

I love the one game Wild Card play-in. It's fun and dramatic and keeps most teams in competition late into the season.

It's not a perfect playoff system, but I don't think one exists.
 

jon abbey

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It's not a perfect playoff system, but I don't think one exists.
Well, dumping the divisions, making a close to balanced schedule within each league, and taking the top four teams would go a LOOOOOONG way towards that, but I'm not holding my breath.
 

Leather

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I dunno. I think people around here are maybe a little spoiled. Twins baseball matters for the first time in about 7 years and people are pretty excited. Having meaningful baseball in September in another two markets is a good thing.
 

jon abbey

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Having meaningful baseball in September in another two markets is a good thing.
It is, but it also cheapens the entire regular season slightly.

Twins were losing all game to the Tigers, but have rallied big in the 8th and are up 6-3 and still batting.
 

jon abbey

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Twins still batting, 7-3. Zach Granite is up now, he came in earlier THIS INNING as a pinch-runner, you don't see that too often.
 

jon abbey

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And Granite homers, his first big league HR, 10-3 Twins, 8 run 8th.
 

jon abbey

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TEX loses again, 4.5 back also.

The #3/#4/#5 seeds in the AL all seem pretty locked in (BOS/NY/MIN), CLE/HOU still jockeying for #1.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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The four AL teams that have clinched are all playing pretty good baseball right now. All are 8-2 in their last 10.

The AL playoffs is stacking up to be epic. The team that makes it through that gauntlet will be a worthy pennant winner. I don't begrudge the Twins their right to play for it. And the system has made the last week relevant not just for the Twins and the teams chasing them but also the Sox and Yanks. If not for the fifth spot, the East title doesn't matter much. Still, if the Twins take out Boston or New York in one game, it feels like it would be a missed opportunity for the AL to put on a hell of a show this year.

Edit: Oh, and the Orioles are eliminated.
 
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