NY minor league prospect news (2016 edition)

jon abbey

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Severino still having his issues in AAA, he's losing 3-1 in the 5th now. If he comes to spring training next year and dominates, he'll likely get a rotation spot, but he is running out of chances and other guys are catching up to him. Keith Law might have been right about him being a reliever, although he's still quite young.

NY is keeping Chance Adams to 85 pitches per game, his innings are getting up there and this is his first year as a starter. This led to this wild line this afternoon: 4.1 3 1 1 2 10.
 

Bob420

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The Yankees have no idea how to develop starting pitching. The fact that Severino is being jerked around is more evidence of this. The guy is 22 years old and is running out of chances to be a starter? That is crazy.
 

jon abbey

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Actually the reason he is running out of chances is because there are quite a few other candidates on the horizon. Green and Cessa are doing well in the bigs currently, Jordan Montgomery is decidedly outpitching Severino in AAA currently (three scoreless outings in a row), and guys like Adams, Acevedo, Sheffield, Kaprielian (pending his health issues), and Enns aren't too far behind.

Severino's issues are his own, he has not been jerked around one bit, he has gotten plenty of chances this year and has taken a decided step backwards. As I said above, "If he comes to spring training next year and dominates, he'll likely get a rotation spot", but chances of that happening seem less and less likely with every mediocre AAA start and every big league hammering. NY is 0-9 in his starts this year and he has almost a 9 ERA in those starts, 41 ERs allowed in 43.1 innings. On the flip side, he dominated in his three relief appearances in the bigs, (only one hit allowed total in 8.1 innings), so maybe that is his eventual landing spot. That's all I said.
 

jon abbey

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Again, NY's main developmental priority at this point is filling as many spots in their rotation from within as they can, because Sabathia and Pineda will be gone after 2017 and Tanaka can opt out then if he chooses (and NY has been burned before by adding additional years to keep someone who is opting out, so we'll see how that plays out). There are two rotation spots open in 2017 (currently filled by Green/Cessa) and either 4 or 5 in 2018.

They'd love for Severino to be the ace in 2018 (depending on Tanaka's status), but he has taken a major step back this year while others have taken a large step forward, and Cashman has added other candidates like Green. Cessa, Sheffield and maybe even Dillon Tate, although he has his own issues right now. That's not on NY, it's entirely on Severino.
 

Bob420

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He is 22 and never really struggled at any point. He stunk it up out of spring training. A lot of starters struggle at that age. He has been up and down 3 times since. He even said he is confused. Whether he should be confused about a demotion or not isn't the issue. The fact that he is confused is the issue.

Cessa and Green are 2 and 3 years older. Tate is older and stunk up low A. Sheffield is in high A. Montgomery has pitched 4 career games at AAA. Yes if you have no patience and you see filler type or back end starters as outpitching him based on a few months, makes sense to push him to the bullpen.

The Yankees should trade severino to a team that can develop him before they turn him into a reliever.
 

jon abbey

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The Yankees should trade severino to a team that can develop him before they turn him into a reliever.
Trade him for what? What NY needs is young live arms at the big league level under team control, a multi-inning shutdown reliever is very valuable.

I'm looking ahead here, I'm not writing Severino off by any stretch of the imagination. If he is 'confused' about being in the minors right now, as he said the other day, then he's a bit of an asshole. He's in the minors because he has flat out sucked all season long, he has been a walking tire fire in the big league rotation, and is arguably one of the biggest reasons NY isn't in the midst of the wild card race right now. As I wrote above, he started nine games this year for NY with an ERA just under 9 combined in those, and NY lost every single one. NY is 65-52 in games Severino didn't start this year, 13 games over .500, and the second wild card right now is 14 games over .500. The main reason for NY's disappointing 2016 is A-Rod and Tex falling off a cliff after both being good last year, but Severino's shocking dreadfulness (this is a guy who would have started game 1 of the ALDS last year if NY had won the wild card game) is not far behind. Yes, he is only 22, but he has still been consistently awful all season long.
 

jon abbey

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Here's a good piece on Severino from last month about his issues, it doesn't seem to be a simple fix and then he will return to his late 2015 form:

http://www.nj.com/yankees/index.ssf/2016/07/yankees_luis_severinos_early_success_was_part_mira.html

Also, I don't think it matters so much in today's game if a guy makes the bigs at 22 or at 25. You get six years of team control, I don't think that those being from 22-27 as opposed to 25-30 make so much of a difference. It makes a big difference in their second contract, but that might be for someone else.
 

Bob420

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I just dont see how it makes sense to move a guy to the bullpen at 22 or 23. It doesnt matter if other guys are older and moving ahead. Send him to the minors and work it out. He can be there all of next year and into 2018 and still be younger than the guys you mentioned moving ahead of him.

Yankees cant develop starting pitching so maybe it makes sense to move him to the pen and look to get starters in free agent market or trade for guys pretty much MLB ready.
 

jon abbey

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I've read at least one place that Ivan Nova will be the best FA SP this year, so don't look for help from the FA market this winter.

Again, I'm not saying Severino should go to the bullpen now. What I'm saying is that he's moved backwards this year, and he needs to improve a lot to get back to what he seemed to be in 2015. I can see a scenario where 3 or 4 of the young guys have passed him by next spring training (3 are ahead of him right now, and if you put a gun to my head between Severino and Chance Adams to win a game tomorrow, I am definitely taking Adams), and by midseason NY decides that he can best help them as a multi-inning set up guy, a la a younger Betances.

And don't underestimate the potential of some of the kids coming out of the system, just because they're not all highly rated prospects. Jose Quintana couldn't make NY's 40 man roster in 2011, but he's been one of the best pitchers in the AL ever since.
 

jon abbey

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My new binky Jordan Montgomery with his fourth straight scoreless start in AAA, 5.2 3 0 0 2 8.
 

jon abbey

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It will be interesting to see how many Yankees make top 100 lists in the offseason. Right now on most post-August 1 lists, they have seven and Sanchez and Judge will graduate. Frazier, Torres, Mateo, Rutherford and Sheffield will remain, and Adams, Montgomery and Dustin Fowler all have a good shot. Kaprielian should drop out of consideration since he hasn't pitched most of the year.

Fowler is a 21 year old CF filling up the stat lines in AA, he's the 10th minor league player at any level since 1988 w/ 60+ R, 80+ RBI, 30+ 2B, 10+ 3B, 10+ HR, 20+ SB, and his defense is above average from reports. He is one of the youngest players in the league, five months older than Moncada (both in the Eastern League). He was an 18th round draft pick in 2013, nice job scouts.
 

jon abbey

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Scranton is trying to clinch their division today, they were up 3-1 in the 6th when Tyler Webb gave up two hits to start the inning, first and third and no one out. Jonathan Holder, their stud reliever, came in and struck out the side. Then he struck out the side again in the seventh and then again in the eighth. Nine batters faced, nine strikeouts, on just 38 pitches. He is going to make a strong bid to be a factor in the 2017 bullpen (he doesn't need to be protected on the 40 man in the offseason, so unlikely he'll be up this year).
 

jon abbey

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Holder is still out there in the 9th, going for the four inning save. Strikes out the first hitter, 10 straight now.
 

jon abbey

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Infield miscommunication lets a pop fly drop, now Byron Buxton is the tying run at the plate.
 

jon abbey

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And he strikes out Buxton, amazing. 4 1 0 0 0 12, 41 strikes/12 balls.
 

BigMike

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Total line on the day had 22 Strikeouts in 9 innings for Scranton
 

jon abbey

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Ben Gamel named International League MVP, I wonder if he'll ever get a real chance in NY.
 

jon abbey

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So it's kind of a crazy week in the minor leagues, major league roster expansion on Thursday, guys being shut down for innings limits, minor league regular seasons coming to an end, guys moving up and down depending on need...

So today NY decided to bump Severino from his scheduled AAA start so that he'd be fresher later in the week when they are presumably calling him up, and instead they promoted 21 year old Nester Cortes from high-A (so jumping two levels) and gave him tonight's start. He has amazing season-long numbers (100 innings, 1.61 ERA, 0.82 WHIP), but no one expected what he did, which was 5.2 hitless and scoreless before hitting his pitch count and being replaced by Severino (who blew the no-hitter on his first batter, heh).

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=641482#/gamelogs/R/pitching/2016/MINORS
 

jon abbey

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Justus Sheffield promoted to AA, he's been awesome since coming over in the Miller deal.
 

jon abbey

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A small window into NY's minor league depth currently: in the last two days, they picked up PIT's #17 prospect and SEA's #19 (using mlb.com lists), neither of whom cracked NY's top 30 when lists were updated. Gamel was NY's #24, he became #15 for SEA.
 

jon abbey

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Jordan Montgomery breaks a 25 year old Scranton franchise record with 29.2 consecutive scoreless innings, a streak that's finally broken in the 6th with a 10-0 lead, first runs he's allowed since his AAA debut on August 2.
 

jon abbey

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Wingack

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In The Quivering Forest
He's been coming out of the pen and throwing 2-3 innings per outing, his velocity is getting back to normal but results are still up and down. They never thought it would be a quick fix with him, next year is when they hope to start seeing consistent results.

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=622253#/career/R/pitching/2016/ALL
That is kind of what I expected, I honestly don't any real positive turnaround until after a full offseason and spring training with the organization.
 

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Justus Sheffield debuted with Trenton tonight. 4 innings, 80 pitches, 9 Ks, 3 BBs, 1 unearned run vs. Reading, which got six scoreless from Mark Leiter, nephew of Al and son of Mark.
 

jon abbey

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NY's top four minor league teams are all in the playoffs, Tampa won their game 1 tonight, with Gleyber Torres doubling in the winning run in the 13th for a 2-1 win.
 

jon abbey

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Chance Adams was selected as the top SP in all of minor league baseball this year by Baseball America today:

SP Chance Adams • Yankees
Double-A Trenton (Eastern) • High Class A Tampa (Florida State)

Move over, Tyler Glasnow. Adams allowed just 5.4 hits per nine innings this season and led the minors with a .169 opponent average. That mark ranks as the second lowest by a qualified minor league starter since 1993, which is as far back as we can trace such records. (The top mark belongs to former White Sox prospect Fautino de los Santos, a righty who allowed a .163 average in 2007.) Adams, a 2015 fifth-round pick from Dallas Baptist, throws an excellent fastball up to 97 mph that helped him set up solid secondary stuff and go 13-1, 2.33 at two levels this season. He struck out 144 in 127 innings and ranked among the overall minor league leaders in ERA and WHIP (0.90).

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/minor-league-star-team-2016/#orSYZTD4JuqYz8tv.97
 

jon abbey

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Chance Adams top 100 this offseason?

J.J. Cooper Baseball America: Decent shot in my mind. That was a great season. Led the minors in batting average against, had success in Double-A and has plenty of stuff. Great pick by the Yankees to take a very good college reliever and see he has the potential to be more than that as a pro.
 

jon abbey

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Jordan Montgomery with yet another scoreless outing in game 1 of the IL playoffs, seven innings in a 2-0 win, a scoreless game until the 8th. Montgomery now has allowed a whopping 4 ERs in 44 innings in AAA since being promoted, for a 0.82 ERA.
 

jon abbey

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It's not exactly "prospect news", but it's been a fantastic year in terms of team wins/losses for the Yankee farm system. Their top three farm teams all won playoff games again tonight, Tampa moves on and Scranton and Trenton are both up 2 games to 0. Scranton is playing Lehigh Valley (the Phillies' AAA team) who had the second best record in the league, and have shut them out twice despite losing so many pitchers to the major leagues in recent weeks.
 

jon abbey

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NY's top three teams all won their first round playoff series, A ball Tampa is tied at a game apiece in the championship series, and Trenton/Scranton will start their championship series in a couple of days. Charleston and Staten Island (NY's low A and short season teams) both lost their first round playoff series.
 

jon abbey

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John Sickels of BA put out his end of season updated top 100 list, containing 7 Yankees, even with Sanchez graduating. Here they are, with preseason rankings in parentheses:

Torres at 16 (45)
Frazier at 26 (29)
Rutherford at 47 (summer 2016 draftee)
Judge at 53 (81)
Acevedo at 54 (88)
Mateo at 57 (68)
Sheffield at 62 (76)

Of course only three of these seven were NY property coming into the season, Torres came in the Chapman deal, Frazier/Sheffield in the Miller deal, and Rutherford was drafted this summer.

Also Dillon Tate is in his list of 20 guys who just missed, and in the comments he says that Chance Adams is at least top 150 but he hasn't really researched him yet.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/9/24/12932956/top-100-prospects-end-of-2016
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, they still have a ways to go but they're in a lot better shape than they were 12 or even 6 months ago.
 

jon abbey

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Arizona Fall League starts today, NY has sent a very exciting list of prospects:

Greg Bird
Gleyber Torres
Miguel Andujar
Tyler Wade (the SS prospect no one mentions who is one level ahead of Mateo, playing in AA this past season at 21)

pitchers:

James Kaprielian (first real game action since April)
Dillion Tate
J.P. Feyereisen (the 4th player in the Andrew Miller deal, another high-level relief prospect like Heller)
Brody Koerner (late 2015 draft pick who has put up great numbers in limited action over two seasons, a 1.56 ERA in 63 innings combined)
 

jon abbey

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Torres and Andujar are probably the prime two candidates to replace Chase Headley as his contract gets closer to its end (runs through 2018), so worth keeping an eye on from that perspective.
 

Wingack

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Arizona Fall League starts today, NY has sent a very exciting list of prospects:

Greg Bird
Gleyber Torres
Miguel Andujar
Tyler Wade (the SS prospect no one mentions who is one level ahead of Mateo, playing in AA this past season at 21)

pitchers:

James Kaprielian (first real game action since April)
Dillion Tate
J.P. Feyereisen (the 4th player in the Andrew Miller deal, another high-level relief prospect like Heller)
Brody Koerner (late 2015 draft pick who has put up great numbers in limited action over two seasons, a 1.56 ERA in 63 innings combined)
I will be very curious to see how Greg Bird does in the AFL.
 

jon abbey

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Kaprielian with an impressive debut, 3 1 0 0 0 6, 40 pitches, he is done now.
 

jon abbey

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Gleyber Torres with an impressive game this afternoon in Arizona: 2-2 with a HR, a 2B and two walks, plus two SBs (also picked off first).