Not our Star Blazer: Yamamoto signs with the Dodgers for $325 million, 12 years

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Otis Foster

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Jul 18, 2005
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Mark Gooden on X:

“ BREAKING: Due to the unique circumstances of Yoshinobu Yamamoto's free agency, Yamamoto's agent has decided Sotheby's will auction off Yamamoto's services today at 2:15 EST. Representatives from the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Red Sox, Giants and Phillies are expected to be present.”

Buyers and Sellers premiums of 30%
 

RedOctober3829

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deep inside Guido territory
I

I finally clicked through on this. This is such a shit show. This isn't even a fucking reporter's opinion! This is an associate producer for the Zolak and Bertrand HotTakez radio show. He read the quotes provided by two actual reporters--ones reporting that the Sox are still very much in the mix--and then gave his own HotTake. This is what we're basing our latest round of outrage on. Total insanity.
I was not basing my comments on the Milliken tweet(which he summarized the meat of the article). I read the article and it's starting to sound like "we tried, but the bidding is going to get to a point where we're out". It's not a hot take. This is where it's going.
 

RS2004foreever

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In an age that prizes clicks now we are now witnessing several circular reports all designed to get clicks, and all based on mostly nothing.
I don't think we are getting YY but that is based on nothing beyond a nearly 15-year-old memory of the Tiexera negotiations.
I do believe we will acquire one of the other big 3 and will trade for another starter.
 

Yaz4Ever

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Mark Gooden on X:

“ BREAKING: Due to the unique circumstances of Yoshinobu Yamamoto's free agency, Yamamoto's agent has decided Sotheby's will auction off Yamamoto's services today at 2:15 EST. Representatives from the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Red Sox, Giants and Phillies are expected to be present.”

Buyers and Sellers premiums of 30%
I'd love this
 

The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa

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Mark Gooden on X:

“ BREAKING: Due to the unique circumstances of Yoshinobu Yamamoto's free agency, Yamamoto's agent has decided Sotheby's will auction off Yamamoto's services today at 2:15 EST. Representatives from the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Red Sox, Giants and Phillies are expected to be present.”

Buyers and Sellers premiums of 30%
Who will the Red Sox send as their paddle man? Has the Yamamoto on auction been authenticated?
 

Max Power

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There's really only one way this can end. He agrees to a contract with the Giants but they pull out after reviewing his medicals. That happens after January 4 and we do it all again next offseason.
 

TomRicardo

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Remember when it was said this forum is better than the whining on X/Twitter? Nope.
What is not factual about the fact that despite not being in a tax the team cannot competitively bid for talent?

That isn't a hot take. It is a problem that a team that is third in MLB in revenue is not able to bid with the top five teams. The real issue is the team has plateau'd with revenue since 2018 at ~515 million. The top teams have only had a bit of growth from there. NESN revenue has cratered however with ratings dropping to less than half they were in 2018.

They are clearly to trying to maximize value over winning. It isn't quite the Producers but why bother to cut so under luxury tax if you aren't going to use it to have a competitive advantage to bid on players. The answer is the focus is not on winning.
 

astrozombie

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Ehhh, it's not like he can't afford an elegant meal pre-contract anyway. He's not a 17yo college recruit.
I wasn't saying what he should or shouldn't do... just what I would do if I was him. Relevant: I am not a 25 year old pitching phenom. And I think some people like these presentations for whatever reason. That's all.
 

lexrageorge

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What is not factual about the fact that despite not being in a tax the team cannot competitively bid for talent?

That isn't a hot take. It is a problem that a team that is third in MLB in revenue is not able to bid with the top five teams. The real issue is the team has plateau'd with revenue since 2018 at ~515 million. The top teams have only had a bit of growth from there. NESN revenue has cratered however with ratings dropping to less than half they were in 2018.

They are clearly to trying to maximize value over winning. It isn't quite the Producers but why bother to cut so under luxury tax if you aren't going to use it to have a competitive advantage to bid on players. The answer is the focus is not on winning.
Not all bids are successful, and it's not always about the $$$. Intent matters. Also, it may be that the Red Sox simply have a top value on what they will pay a given player. They clearly didn't think Lugo was worth the money he got from KC, and I'm not sure they were wrong in that instance. Maybe they have a price for Yamamoto that they don't intend to exceed because of the risks that have been stated in this thread and others.
 

StuckOnYouk

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Cora would not commit to saying whether he did or didn’t visit Fenway but stressed that he’s heard enough about Fenway and Boston via our current LF as well as teammates YY has had who actually played in Boston (via visuals it seemed he was talking about Marwin Gonzalez if not others)
Cora did not seem to show any outward depression as if the race for YY is over, I guess I can put it that way
 

BringBackMo

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What is not factual about the fact that despite not being in a tax the team cannot competitively bid for talent?

That isn't a hot take. It is a problem that a team that is third in MLB in revenue is not able to bid with the top five teams. The real issue is the team has plateau'd with revenue since 2018 at ~515 million. The top teams have only had a bit of growth from there. NESN revenue has cratered however with ratings dropping to less than half they were in 2018.

They are clearly to trying to maximize value over winning. It isn't quite the Producers but why bother to cut so under luxury tax if you aren't going to use it to have a competitive advantage to bid on players. The answer is the focus is not on winning.
Why are you saying this, because they cut back on spending for two seasons--dropping all the way down to sixth in baseball and thirteenth in baseball while doing so--during which they took one of the worst minor league systems in baseball and built it into one of the better ones?

I'm not as good with these things as others around here, but according to this accounting:
In 2021 they had the third-highest payroll in baseball.
In 2020 it was also the third highest.
In the 20 seasons since the 2004 season, the Sox have had a top-three payroll 14 times and a top-four payroll four times.
They have had the top payroll a number of times, including as recently as 2019.
The only two seasons since 2004 when they weren't in the top four in baseball--2022 and 2023--were obvious outliers that coincided with a strategic rebuild.
The Sox have famously announced that they are going "full throttle" this off-season and plan to spend, spend, spend.
 

StuckOnYouk

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Further on Bradford and Cora - Bradford straight out says is it a concern that he didn’t visit Fenway.
Cora pauses and with what might be a sheepish grin says I can’t tell you if he did visit or didn’t visit Fenway…and then goes on with what I just posted
 

ehaz

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Lincecum's mechanics were a mess, though.
Yep and Yamamoto’s look much more cleaner, like Greinke’s.

Also didn’t Lincecum have a bit of a reputation off the field? YY seems like more of a Greinke-like tinkerer/full-time pitching weirdo. People forget Greinke used to throw 99 too. Greinke was a bigger guy than YY or Timmy (6’1) but he was able to reinvent himself in his 30s when his velo dipped and remained an ace.

View: https://twitter.com/jlasagna43/status/1737537094682386651?s=46
 

buttons

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Jul 18, 2005
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We don’t need A pitcher!
We need at least 2 or possibly 3 top of pack
along with a 2nd baseman and a right handed
slugging outfielder. Hard to accomplish under
any reasonable scenario,impossible if we spend
$30 million + for just one of the above.
 

simplicio

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We don’t need A pitcher!
We need at least 2 or possibly 3 top of pack
along with a 2nd baseman and a right handed
slugging outfielder. Hard to accomplish under
any reasonable scenario,impossible if we spend
$30 million + for just one of the above.
Why is it impossible? Did you bother looking at the current payroll? They have $47m of space under the CBT threshold, and $87m under CBT+40.

Also how does anyone get "top of pack" starters for under $30m?
 

soxhop411

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For those who don't read Xitter, a brief summary would be very much appreciated!

The Boston Red Sox are reportedly one of the teams still in the mix for Japanese free agent Yoshinobu Yamomoto. The 25-year-old pitcher is the top free agent remaining on the market after Shohei Ohtani signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers earlier this month.
It’s also been reported that Fenway Park was not on the list of stops that Yamamoto has made on his free-agent tour. But how much does that matter?
Boston Red Sox manager Alex Cora addressed the Yamamoto rumors while joining WEEI’s Rob Bradford on the Audacy original podcast “Baseball Isn’t Boring” this week.
“I cannot tell you if he did visit or didn’t visit Fenway but I think he knows a lot about Fenway,” Cora said (22:45 in player above). “He has friends he’s probably been asking, and we’re not talking about our left fielder. We’re not talking about that.”
The Red Sox left fielder, of course, is Yamamoto’s fellow countryman and former teammate on the Orix Buffaloes, Masataka Yoshida, who signed in Boston last offseason. But there are other former major leaguers that Yamamoto has crossed paths with in the Japan Pacific League of the NPB.
“We got guys that played with him this year that had the experience of playing in New York, the experience of playing in Boston, the experience of playing in Houston,” Cora continued. “He played with people that are ex-MLB players and they have the insight of a lot of stuff. It’s important but it’s not that important.”
While visiting stadiums can be exciting and a point of recruitment for players, the novelty isn’t the same as it once was, Cora mentioned.
“The novelty is in the past. They really want to know what the organization is all about. That’s what they want to know,” he said. “At the end of the day, the conversations in that room with your group, with his group, the agency, and talking about how we envision this.”
Anyone can pay to get a tour of Fenway Park from the experts, Cora noted, and an official visit may impact how the Red Sox’ pursuit of Yamamoto is viewed. But at the end of the day, it’s about more than that.
“Why are we in this room? You talk about it and the possible structure of things, how we’re going to help you to become a big leaguer because yeah, he’s very talented but he’s not a big leaguer yet,” Cora continued. “There are a lot of adjustments, a lot of stuff that not only him and his situation but Seth Lugo, Justin Turner last year, just how we operate in Boston. How it works. The city. How the family room works. Family’s got to be comfortable. All that stuff comes into play because we’re talking about life-changing decisions.”
The Yamamoto sweepstakes may come to a close soon as it’s been reported that he will make a decision by Christmas Day.
https://www.audacy.com/weei/sports/red-sox/alex-cora-yoshinobu-yamamoto-knows-a-lot-about-fenway-park?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
 

chrisfont9

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Cora's perspective is undoubtedly a lot less spun up about one player than ours. If he could talk openly, I wonder if he'd just say we could use a bunch of quality innings and here are five or six guys I'd be happy to ride with? Aces are great but given how things went in 2018 (Sale starting to decline) I'd bet he views the roster more holistically than your average media commentator.
 

pk1627

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What is not factual about the fact that despite not being in a tax the team cannot competitively bid for talent?

That isn't a hot take. It is a problem that a team that is third in MLB in revenue is not able to bid with the top five teams. The real issue is the team has plateau'd with revenue since 2018 at ~515 million. The top teams have only had a bit of growth from there. NESN revenue has cratered however with ratings dropping to less than half they were in 2018.

They are clearly to trying to maximize value over winning. It isn't quite the Producers but why bother to cut so under luxury tax if you aren't going to use it to have a competitive advantage to bid on players. The answer is the focus is not on winning.
First, they are competitively bidding. It’s Dec 20 and even the Sox start leaking when they’re out on a player. No leaks.

Second, one might make a case that competitively bidding of free agents has never been a Sox priority - plateau, pre-plateau, post-plateau. In this 20 years they’ve done quite well on franchise value and franchise winning.

Come up with a better metric to prove they don’t care about winning. If you do, I’ll join you in writing stern stuff on a message board to force them to sell.
 

joe dokes

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Clear from Coar's answer that Yamamoto did NOT visit Fenway. And that IS important it seems to me. If was going to potentially play there for 10 years, you'd think he would check the park and the city out.
My instinct is to agree with this. But, really how much can you (or me or anyone) "tell" about a city you might work in for the next 10 years in a 1 or 2 day visit? I would think that info from people he trusts might be at least as valuable.
 

E5 Yaz

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https://x.com/jimbowdengm/status/1737569418375242134?s=46

So he would take $250-$300 million? That seems low even if it’s a team he prefers.
@JimBowdenGM

The latest that I'm hearing re: Yamamoto
Favorites to land him: #Dodgers or #Yankees
Expected highest bidders: #Mets or #Giants
Backburner teams: #RedSox #Phillies #BlueJays
Time Frame: This week
Projected contract: $250-$300 million
Expected posting fee: $50m
Expected length: 8-12 years depending on offer
Agent: Joel Wolfe - Wasserman
What's more important, offer or team situation: N/A
Now we wait.
 

Ronnie_Dobbs

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I'm feeling great now that Merloni isn't.

Seems to me now that this is far too much risk to commit such an astronomical sum to a guy who may be worth zero for half of that contract. Just seems like we can do better by paying proven guys less per year for shorter terms would be a better use of capital. Especially now that it seems that teams are backing up several trucks worth now.

Serious question, when was the last time the Redsox (or any team?) signed a long term mega contract (8+) years that have worked out well for the club?
 

buttons

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Why is it impossible? Did you bother looking at the current payroll? They have $47m of space under the CBT threshold, and $87m under CBT+40.

Also how does anyone get "top of pack" starters for under $30m?
How many #1 pitchers are making $30 million/yr?
there are a whole lot of pitchers out there who would substantially
improve the rotation that are making south of $25 million per year
 

BringBackMo

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@JimBowdenGM

The latest that I'm hearing re: Yamamoto
Favorites to land him: #Dodgers or #Yankees
Expected highest bidders: #Mets or #Giants
Backburner teams: #RedSox #Phillies #BlueJays
Time Frame: This week
Projected contract: $250-$300 million
Expected posting fee: $50m
Expected length: 8-12 years depending on offer
Agent: Joel Wolfe - Wasserman
What's more important, offer or team situation: N/A
Now we wait.
Thank you for this rundown.

Bowden is comically wrong pretty much all the time, but by going with the Dodgers and Yankees as favorites, he's really just repeating conventional wisdom and has a fairly decent shot of being proved correct. I find it ludicrous that he has any idea what the range of dollar offers are that have or will be made to Yamamoto--he would never be the first to have accurate information of this sort. And an expected contract length of 8 to 12 years is laughably broad. Why not just make it 4 to 12? Mostly, I think this is just him putting up a pretend "what I'm hearing" post that is milquetoast enough that no one will remember it a week from now when it turns out to be wrong, but that gives him the appearance of being connected to the conversation.
 

TomRicardo

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First, they are competitively bidding. It’s Dec 20 and even the Sox start leaking when they’re out on a player. No leaks.

Second, one might make a case that competitively bidding of free agents has never been a Sox priority - plateau, pre-plateau, post-plateau. In this 20 years they’ve done quite well on franchise value and franchise winning.

Come up with a better metric to prove they don’t care about winning. If you do, I’ll join you in writing stern stuff on a message board to force them to sell.
You do know 5 years is a significant portion of 20 even removing recency bias, right? The last significant contract they signed on was Trevor Story which was a buy low to replace Bogaerts, and it already looks like loser (Bogaerts is already 4.5 wins better than Story which is about 45 million in value year one. Story is going to have a very tough time catching up to that value over the contract).

Ever since they extended Chris Sale they have been on a burn it down quest of epic portions.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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You do know 5 years is a significant portion of 20 even removing recency bias, right? The last significant contract they signed on was Trevor Story which was a buy low to replace Bogaerts, and it already looks like loser (Bogaerts is already 4.5 wins better than Story which is about 45 million in value year one. Story is going to have a very tough time catching up to that value over the contract).

Ever since they extended Chris Sale they have been on a burn it down quest of epic portions.
Guess I dreamed that $300M contract to Devers?
 

moondog80

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The last significant contract they signed on was Trevor Story which was a buy low to replace Bogaerts.
Rafael Devers says hello.

But giving the benefit of the doubt that you meant "free agent from another team"...that means it's been one whole offseason. And that you don't count Yoshida.
 

absintheofmalaise

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I'm feeling great now that Merloni isn't.

Seems to me now that this is far too much risk to commit such an astronomical sum to a guy who may be worth zero for half of that contract. Just seems like we can do better by paying proven guys less per year for shorter terms would be a better use of capital. Especially now that it seems that teams are backing up several trucks worth now.

Serious question, when was the last time the Redsox (or any team?) signed a long term mega contract (8+) years that have worked out well for the club?
How many #1 pitchers are making $30 million/yr?
there are a whole lot of pitchers out there who would substantially
improve the rotation that are making south of $25 million per year
Out of curiosity, which FA pitchers would you sign, for what AAV, and for how long? Which FA pitchers that y'all would like to sign have close to his projections for, let's say, the next five years? Please show your work.
 
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