This is now: BB and the direction of the Patriots

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Cellar-Door

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Justthetippett said:
It's very unBelichickian not to have had a viable succession plan from Brady. Even after Jimmy G left, they had time to figure it out. Stidham was not a real effort. Hurts would have been. Or Lamar. Mac was but obviously sucks and there's was no overlap with Brady. When Bill looks back at these down years, I bet that's his main regret.
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I mean I look at it this way....

Lamar wasn't a real option. They had just lost the SuperBowl, Brady had 2 years left on his deal... you can't spend a 1st rounder on a QB in that situation... particularly on a QB who has basically the opposite skillset of your MVP QB and needs a complete offense rebuild. Weak year for post-1st QBs... could have taken Rudolph with a 2nd I guess but again.... trying to win SBs. They threw a late pick at Etling.
2019- Just won the SB, still a chance Brady re-signs. Weak QB class. Options in the 1st were Drew Lock? They took Stidham in the 4th (other options were Greer but would have had to trade up or take him in the 2nd, or Ryan FInley if they took him in the 3rd. The weak class here killed them, this was the year for a 2nd to 4th round shot, they took one, but weak class Stidham never hit.
2020- Sure they could have taken Hurts at 37, but not some unreasonable decision not to, he was an undersized run first QB.... those rarely work. Also could have taken Love in the 1st over trading down.


So they really just weren't in a spot to get a QB for the most part or at least not one that made sense.
They rolled with Cam Newton for a year then took their 1st round QB.... it wasn't a bad strategy really, especially considering that they knew pretty early that at some point they had to take a terrible cap year when Brady left.
 
Jinhocho

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Cellar-Door said:
I mean I look at it this way....

Lamar wasn't a real option. They had just lost the SuperBowl, Brady had 2 years left on his deal... you can't spend a 1st rounder on a QB in that situation... particularly on a QB who has basically the opposite skillset of your MVP QB and needs a complete offense rebuild. Weak year for post-1st QBs... could have taken Rudolph with a 2nd I guess but again.... trying to win SBs. They threw a late pick at Etling.
2019- Just won the SB, still a chance Brady re-signs. Weak QB class. Options in the 1st were Drew Lock? They took Stidham in the 4th (other options were Greer but would have had to trade up or take him in the 2nd, or Ryan FInley if they took him in the 3rd. The weak class here killed them, this was the year for a 2nd to 4th round shot, they took one, but weak class Stidham never hit.
2020- Sure they could have taken Hurts at 37, but not some unreasonable decision not to, he was an undersized run first QB.... those rarely work. Also could have taken Love in the 1st over trading down.


So they really just weren't in a spot to get a QB for the most part or at least not one that made sense.
They rolled with Cam Newton for a year then took their 1st round QB.... it wasn't a bad strategy really, especially considering that they knew pretty early that at some point they had to take a terrible cap year when Brady left.
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It is a crazy thing to see so many people attribute their struggles to stupidity, malice, conspiracy etc. I mean what you lay out here was what we all knew would basically happen - how many times did we hear people say I dont care if we suck a decade this is all so worth it.
 
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Jinhocho said:
It is a crazy thing to see so many people attribute their struggles to stupidity, malice, conspiracy etc. I mean what you lay out here was what we all knew would basically happen - how many times did we hear people say I dont care if we suck a decade this is all so worth it.
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The guy who didn't ever want to suck was Bill, and he didn't pivot once Jimmy G left, which left them exposed. Yes, it was challenging, but this is a guy who was always a step ahead. Maybe he thought Brady would stay to buy more time. Who knows.

I think these shitshow seasons are character builders as long as they are one offs. For fans too!
 
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Justthetippett

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Jinhocho said:
It is a crazy thing to see so many people attribute their struggles to stupidity, malice, conspiracy etc. I mean what you lay out here was what we all knew would basically happen - how many times did we hear people say I dont care if we suck a decade this is all so worth it.
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The guy who didn't ever want to suck was Bill, and he didn't pivot once Jimmy G left, which left them exposed. Yes, it was challenging, but this is a guy who was always a step ahead. Maybe he thought Brady would stay to buy more time. Who knows.

I think these shitshow seasons are character builders as long as they are one offs. For fans too!
 
Jinhocho

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Justthetippett said:
The guy who didn't ever want to suck was Bill, and he didn't pivot once Jimmy G left, which left them exposed. Yes, it was challenging, but this is a guy who was always a step ahead. Maybe he thought Brady would stay to buy more time. Who knows.

I think these shitshow seasons are character builders as long as they are one offs. For fans too!
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I had then sense he planned a zig when he thought everyone else was zagging - they were going to play bully ball with a game manager as QB. I think he thought that when he was thinking about young Jimmy G and about Mac. I mean, I am super down on Mac, but it is hard to fathom how spectacularly he has failed and how awful he has been, AND just how much his suck has really blown up their plans.
 
Rico Guapo

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P'tucket rhymes with... said:
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Cellar-Door said:
I mean if a playoff season is a down year to you then you just aren't a reasonable person
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I fully admit drafting is difficult, and FA acquisitions are tricky as well, but making the playoffs doesn't mean the team was trending in the right direction. I don't expect the team to make the playoffs every year (11 year old me sat on those cold metal bleachers in 1992) and it was nice to see them qualify in 2021, but the reality of the last four years is this.

- 2020: The Cam Newton season. The 2021 draft yields Barmore and Stephenson but winds up a bust otherwise. They make an excellent free agency pick ups in Judon and Bourne. Mills, Van Noy, and Hunter Henry are good signings as well. They whiff badly on Jonnu Smith and Nelson Agholor and overpay Godchaux.
- 2021: Three wins against teams with winning records (Chargers, Titans, Bills) then got waxed by the Bills in the playoffs. In the 2022 draft they reach for Strange, miss on Thornton, possibly hit on Marcus Jones (subsequently injured), take a gamble on Jack Jones which eventually backfired, and don't draft any decent players otherwise. They add Peppers in FA but the rest of their signings wind up injured or released.
- 2022: The Matt Patricia experiment. Miss the playoffs and finish the season with a losing record despite facing a host of bad quarterbacks including Mitch Trubitsky, old friend Jacoby Brissett, Justin Fields, Zach Wilson 2x, Sam Ehlinger, Colt McCoy, and the Skylar Thompson/Teddy Bridgewater pupu platter in week 17. For those keeping track at home, the Patriots went 7-1 in those games and 1-8 against the rest of their schedule. In the 2023 draft they luck out with Gonzalez falling to them at 17 but he gets injured early on. They appeared to have grabbed an impact player in Keon White based on pre-season games but he's done nothing in the regular season. Marte Mapu rides the pine every week. Jake Andrews hasn't played a snap on offense. Chad Ryland may turn out to be a decent kicker someday but he's missed a bunch of FGs while Nick Folk has crushed it for the Titans. Sidy Sow and Mafi have been thrown into the fire and struggled as one would expect for mid round OL draft picks. Boutte can't get on the field despite Parker sucking out loud and JJSS playing on a bum knee. Baringer and Douglas are bright spots but one is a punter and the other has been concussed at least twice this season. Yes it's too early to pass final judgement on this draft class but early returns aren't great outside of Gonzo/Baringer/Douglas. FA signings this offseason have been released, injured, played poorly or some combination thereof.
- 2023: Slow motion trainwreck, will likely garner a top three pick.

Again, I'm not complaining about the state of the team, it is unfortunate but to be expected after such a lengthy run of success in a league designed to generate parity, but I don't think it's fair to gloss over how badly the past four seasons have gone either.
 
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DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Jinhocho said:
It is a crazy thing to see so many people attribute their struggles to stupidity, malice, conspiracy etc. I mean what you lay out here was what we all knew would basically happen - how many times did we hear people say I dont care if we suck a decade this is all so worth it.
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We are guilty of entitlement. I will take that as a trade off for all the winning too. All those victories are so worth it - and that includes this incredibly painful season.
 
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I don't think anyone in hindsight thinks Ghost was a wasteful pick. I think the issue now is that you can get away with tinkering on the margins when you already have a roster full of HOF'ers and the best QB to ever put on a helmet. Using picks on guys like Rohrwasser and Bailey when you have so many glaring holes on the roster is wasting picks. @BaseballJones posted this a few pages back. UDFA's at the kicking positions hit far, far more often than they do at other positions:

In fact... 2023 NFL top ten leaders in FG %:

1. Aubrey, Dal - 100.0% - UDFA
2. Butker, KC - 100.0% - 7th round (#233)
3. Zuerlein, NYJ - 95.7% - 6th round (#171)
4. Folk, Ten - 95.5% - 6th round (#178)
5. Koo, Atl - 95.5% - UDFA
6. Santos, Chi - 95.0% - UDFA
7. Boswell, Pit - 94.7% - UDFA
8. Fairbairn, Hou - 94.7% - UDFA
9. Dicker, LAC - 94.1% - UDFA
10. Lutz, Den - 91.7% - UDFA

So 7 of the top 10 kickers in the NFL this year (by FG%) were UDFAs, and the three that were picked were 6th and 7th rounders.

Punting - 2023 NFL top ten leaders in net yards per punt:

1. Cole, LV - 46.9 - UDFA
2. Anger, Dal - 46.1 - 3rd round (#70)
3. Stonehouse, Ten, 43.9 - UDFA
4. Cooke, Jax - 43.8 - 7th round (#247)
5. Dickson, Sea - 43.7 - 5th round (#149)
6. Gillan, NYG - 43.6 - UDFA
7. Hekker, Car - 43.2 - UDFA
8. Johnston, Hou - 42.6 - UDFA
9. Wishnowsky, SF - 42.5 - 4th round (#110)
10. Bojourquez, Cle - 42.4 - UDFA

So 6 of the top 10 punters in the NFL this year were UDFAs, and two of the guys picked were by Jacksonville.

Long story short, you can pretty easily find a quality K or P as an UDFA. So WHY IN THE WORLD use a draft pick to secure one, especially when you have a bunch of other holes on the roster?
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you cant “pretty easily” find a kicker in UDFA. From 2013-2022, there were 44 total UDFA kickers making their debut in that 10 year span. Of those, only 24 have more than 25 career field goal attempts and only 12 are on a roster today. There isn’t a single undrafted kicker on a roster today who debuted in 2020, 2 from 2021 (including Matt Amendola who wasn’t on an opening day roster) and one from 2022

here are the undrafted kickers to debut between 2018-2022 with at least one FG attempt

Greg Joseph, Matt McCrane, Brett Maher, Michael Badgley, Joey Slye, Eddy Piniero, Jamie Gillan, Chase McLaughlin, Ty Long, Ryan Santoso, Kaare Vedvik, Elliot Fry, Rodrigo Blankenship, Taylor Russolino, Jonathan Brown, Sergio Castillo, Matthew Wright, Lirim Hajrullahu, Chris Naggar, Riley Patterson, Dominik Eberle, Brian Johnson, Matt Ammendola, Chris Blewitt, Cameron Dicker, Taylor Bertolet, Caleb Shudak, Nick Sciba

Of that entire group, the only one still with his original singing team Dicker

Joseph is on his 3rd team, McLaughlin 7th, Maher 3rd, Piniero 3rd, Patterson 2nd, Ammendola 4th, Slye 4th

of the other active guys with 20+ career FG attempts to debut in the last 10 years, Koo is on his 3rd team (including his brief practice squad stint with the Pats), Fairbairn and Boswell are still with their original team, Lutz and McManus on their 2nd and Santos his 5th

so you’re talking maybe 1-2 guys a year who end up having 5+ year careers and one every 2-4 years who becomes his signing team’s medium or long term kicker.

meanwhile, there’s about 14 kickers who get signed as undrafted rookies every per year (by my count 68 from 2018-2022 but I might have missed a few guys who only made it to minicamp)

so getting a good rookie kicker, even assuming you can identify the Dickers of the world from the Scibas and outbid other teams in UDFA for one, isn’t easy generally let alone as an undrafted player.

there are very few good kickers in the NFL. There might be a number of good undrafted ones in the league but that’s just a numbers game. Most kickers come into the league undrafted and the good ones play for a very long time. Sure, if the Pats pick up an undrafted guy every year, they’re bound to hit on one But chances are it won’t be the first or second or third guy they try and suffering through a bad kicker can ruin your season.

It wasn’t that long ago people thought Quinn Nordin was going to be useful when he was an undrafted guy in camp. He hasn’t exactly worked out well.
 
ManicCompression

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Jinhocho said:
It is a crazy thing to see so many people attribute their struggles to stupidity, malice, conspiracy etc. I mean what you lay out here was what we all knew would basically happen - how many times did we hear people say I dont care if we suck a decade this is all so worth it.
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It’s not one or the other. I think most of us would be more understanding of a team underperforming to a middling record with some of the injuries on D. This is historically bad in terms of offensive performance. Their #1 QB and most of their position players have been healthy and they still struggle to score more than 10 in games. And they’re still trying to win with vets! We’re not even developing young players in losses. Devante Parker is still out there getting targets, zeke Elliott is still getting carries. All of this effort for two wins.

Table stakes for BB was supposed to be a certain level of competence. That’s been out the window for the offense and special teams the last two years. So why isn’t it fair to ask what’s changed and if this is a more foundational issue than just one bad quarterback? Other teams have bad QBs and they’re not THIS terrible.
 
Erik Hanson's Hook

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Perhaps a small complaint, but I do'nt like how Bill has semi-injured / recently injured guys return punts. Pop Douglas comes to mind.
 
Smiling Joe Hesketh

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54thMA said:
I'm referring more to the way the team performs on the field, they are a clownshow, mistakes everywhere, dumb penalties, situationally unaware, they were one of the best coached teams in the league, now they are a dumb team, as Patriots fans we used to laugh at teams like this.

Now we are one of them.

Ted Johnson said the other night Belichick looks disengaged; he's checked out.

As has the team.
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Ted Johnson has been shitting on BB for 10+ years now, he's not to be listened to.

Frankly and bluntly, the reason why they look so awful is that the QB is so bad the rest of the team KNOWS they cannot win with him under center, so they initially try to do too much which results in mistakes and penalties, and then as reality sets in as Mac kills yet another game they resign themselves to the loss.

This would would be 6-5 or 7-4 with anyone other than Mac at QB and I will never, ever change my mind on that. He's driven the team straight into the toilet.
 
Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Pat Spillane said:
There is talent on this team on the defensive side of the ball but offense is historically bad I would say
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No, it's the QB who is historically bad. He literally can't throw ten yards downfield. I've seen clips posted on Twitter, etc. Guys are open. Maybe not Tyreek Hill open, but open nonetheless. The QB cannot get them the ball, refuses to pull the trigger on reads, and is generally killing this organization single-handedly.

When are we going to just accept this? The OL has been vastly improved since moving Onwenu to RT. They aren't the Hogs but they are playing much, much better. Mac has gotten NFL time. He simply is unable to do anything with it.

The QB is by far the most important player on the field and the Patriots are getting sub high-school level play from theirs.
 
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sezwho

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Pat Spillane said:
There is talent on this team on the defensive side of the ball but offense is historically bad I would say
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Special teams isn’t historically bad, just bad.
Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
Ted Johnson has been shitting on BB for 10+ years now, he's not to be listened to.

Frankly and bluntly, the reason why they look so awful is that the QB is so bad the rest of the team KNOWS they cannot win with him under center, so they initially try to do too much which results in mistakes and penalties, and then as reality sets in as Mac kills yet another game they resign themselves to the loss.

This would would be 6-5 or 7-4 with anyone other than Mac at QB and I will never, ever change my mind on that. He's driven the team straight into the toilet.
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I’m glad you can finally be blunt and frank about blaming Mac for everything.
 
BaseballJones

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Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
No, it's the QB who is historically bad. He literally can't throw ten yards downfield. I've seen clips posted on Twitter, etc. Guys are open. Maybe not Tyreek Hill open, but open nonetheless. The QB cannot get them the ball, refuses to pull the trigger on reads, and is generally killing this organization single-handedly.

When are we going to just accept this? The OL has been vastly improved since moving Onwenu to RT. They aren't the Hogs but they are playing much, much better. Mac has gotten NFL time. He simply is unable to do anything with it.
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The OL, by some basic (incomplete) measurements:

vs Phi - 3.5 rush avg, 7 QB hits allowed, 2 sacks
vs Mia - 3.5 rush avg, 8 QB hits allowed, 4 sacks
at NYJ - 3.9 rush avg, 5 QB hits allowed, 0 sacks
at Dal - 2.3 rush avg, 2 QB hits allowed, 1 sack
vs NO - 2.5 rush avg, 4 QB hits allowed, 2 sacks
at LV - 4.4 rush avg, 4 QB hits allowed, 4 sacks
vs Buf - 4.0 rush avg, 4 QB hits allowed, 1 sack
at Mia - 4.1 rush avg, 7 QB hits allowed, 3 sacks
vs Was - 5.6 rush avg, 1 QB hit allowed, 0 sacks
vs Ind - 4.6 rush avg, 9 QB hits allowed, 5 sacks
at NYG - 4.7 rush avg, 3 QB hits allowed, 2 sacks

So:
For the first five games, the OL was TERRIBLE at opening holes for the running game. Those averages are just awful the first five games. The RBs didn't help as they were among the worst in the league at gaining yardage after first contact and in breaking tackles. But the RBs have been better and the running game has consistently been better. The last three games in particular, running the ball has been very effective.

- For the first five games: an average of 5.2 QB hits and 1.8 sacks per game
- For the last six games: an average of 4.7 QB hits and 2.5 sacks per game

So pass protection has been inconsistent. In some ways better (I don't have individual game "QB pressure" stats) - like fewer QB hits per game - and in some ways worse - more sacks allowed. I don't know how much of that is on the QB vs. OL.

Surprisingly, the Pats are #13 in fewest QB pressures allowed this season, according to pro-football-reference.com. It sure felt earlier in the season like Mac was under siege back there, and it feels like there's less of that lately. But I don't know if the actual data matches the eye test.
 
ManicCompression

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Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
When are we going to just accept this?
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Mac is terrible, but I don't think another team in the league would sign JJS or Devante or Tyquan if BB were to cut them. Maybe TT goes to a practice squad. Gesicki is probably out of the league after this. DD is the only receiver worth anything, and he's probably 3-4 on a good team. Henry is an... average tight end at best? Everything is interrelated. This team needs a lot of help on that side of the ball.
 
Smiling Joe Hesketh

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sezwho said:
Special teams isn’t historically bad, just bad.


I’m glad you can finally be blunt and frank about blaming Mac for everything.
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Mac is by far the biggest issue on the team and spending one second bemoaning anything else on the club is a spectacular waste of time in my opinion. He's so bad you cannot even begin to evaluate the rest of the players.
 
54thMA

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Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
Ted Johnson has been shitting on BB for 10+ years now, he's not to be listened to.

Frankly and bluntly, the reason why they look so awful is that the QB is so bad the rest of the team KNOWS they cannot win with him under center, so they initially try to do too much which results in mistakes and penalties, and then as reality sets in as Mac kills yet another game they resign themselves to the loss.

This would would be 6-5 or 7-4 with anyone other than Mac at QB and I will never, ever change my mind on that. He's driven the team straight into the toilet.
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Understood on Johnson; he comes across as a guy who hates Belichick and he rubs salt in the wound whenever he gets the chance.

Regarding the QB; his regression from 2021 has been...............something.

He had a quality OC his rookie year and got the team to 9-4, then the lost 3 out of 4 coming out of the bye and got smoked by the Bills in the playoffs.

Last year was a throw away year for him with two unqualified coaches running the offense, but he took a step back regardless.

This year; wowzah, he's panicking, seeing things that are not there, not reading the field, missing guys who are open, making TERRIBLE decisions, all with a capable OC by his side.

As Parcells used to say, he's a ball in tall grass, completely lost and yes, he's the main problem on this team, he's fucking terrible.

He looked like the next QB for this team; for 13 games.
 
Smiling Joe Hesketh

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ManicCompression said:
Mac is terrible, but I don't think another team in the league would sign JJS or Devante or Tyquan if BB were to cut them. Maybe TT goes to a practice squad. Gesicki is probably out of the league after this. DD is the only receiver worth anything, and he's probably 3-4 on a good team. Henry is an... average tight end at best? Everything is interrelated. This team needs a lot of help on that side of the ball.
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We said the same about Jonnu last year and it turns out his blood is still quite warm.

When you don't have a QB you don't have receivers who look good.
 
Salva135

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Blaming Mac for everything implies BB put together a perfectly adequate NFL-level offense. It takes BB off the hook for this shit show and leads one to believe that all you need is to draft a guy next year and this operation will be humming again. It's a story that the BB Brigade is creating now to deny the idea that a team could be this poorly run.

Anyone could have looked at the offensive roster compared to the rest of the division and seen that they were in serious trouble. The O/U was 6.5 wins for a reason. Mac has made this season far worse than it could have been, but they were always set up to be bad this year.
 
Smiling Joe Hesketh

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54thMA said:
Understood on Johnson; he comes across as a guy who hates Belichick and he rubs salt in the wound whenever he gets the chance.

Regarding the QB; his regression from 2021 has been...............something.

He had a quality OC his rookie year and got the team to 9-4, then the lost 3 out of 4 coming out of the bye and got smoked by the Bills in the playoffs.

Last year was a throw away year for him with two unqualified coaches running the offense, but he took a step back regardless.

This year; wowzah, he's panicking, seeing things that are not there, not reading the field, missing guys who are open, making TERRIBLE decisions, all with a capable OC by his side.

As Parcells used to say, he's a ball in tall grass, completely lost and yes, he's the main problem on this team, he's fucking terrible.

He looked like the next QB for this team; for 13 games.
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Agreed on all of this. The problems didn't start with Patrica as the OC, they began in Mac's rookie year when the league got tape on him and adjusted.

Mac got found out, like a pitcher who can't throw his curve for strikes.
 
Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Salva135 said:
Blaming Mac for everything implies BB put together a perfectly adequate NFL-level offense. It takes BB off the hook for this shit show and leads one to believe that all you need is to draft a guy next year and this operation will be humming again. It's a story that the BB Brigade is creating now to deny the idea that a team could be this poorly run.

Anyone could have looked at the offensive roster compared to the rest of the division and seen that they were in serious trouble. The O/U was 6.5 wins for a reason. Mac has made this season far worse than it could have been, but they were always set up to be bad this year.
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Completely disagreed, but Ive said that already. Andy Dalton would have this team with a winning record. The O/U was 6.5 because the world knew Mac sucks.
 
Salva135

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By the way, if it really is all on Mac, that makes BB look worse, not better. It means he either stuck with a QB situation knowing he had the talent to compete otherwise, completely misjudged the talent on his own team, or simply doesn't care.
 
DennyDoyle'sBoil

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This thread is like a jukebox. I already know what everyone is going to say before they say it. Maybe we could simplify? Just say which track we are playing instead of typing it all out.

A4 or C12, like that?
 
Mystic Merlin

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Salva135 said:
By the way, if it really is all on Mac, that makes BB look worse, not better. It means he either stuck with a QB situation knowing he had the talent to compete otherwise, completely misjudged the talent on his own team, or simply doesn't care.
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‘Doesn’t care’ seems like a plausible theory.
 
jezza1918

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Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
I said what I said. Dalton has been dead league average throughout his career and the Pats are getting sub-replacement level QBing. There are probably a dozen backups or UDFAs who could have played better than Mac has this year.
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Wasnt Mac Jones rookie year essentially a typical Dalton year? Pretty much league average. And that team was a tick over .500...And I tend to agree the pats would be flirting with .500 with Dalton (or 2021 Jones) right now, but with the rest of the schedule Id bet on them finishing under .500 and thus in a far worse drafting position. #TeamMac! (Im agreeing with you and the reasoning, just teasing it out a bit more)
 
Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Mystic Merlin said:
‘Doesn’t care’ seems like a plausible theory.
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He's obviously very stubborn and hellbent to go with his best practices even in the face of bad results. It's likely the only way he is wired.

The essential problem is that the Pats for 20 years have gone with a "practice well and you'll get to play" approach, which works when you have a sociopathic maniac at QB who demands perfection of himself and others and then delivers. By all accounts Mac practices well, and reads the defenses in practice better than Zappe and Grier. The problem is that once the game starts he melts down and can't process things fast enough. So they've got a guy who practices well and takes to being coached and then promptly forgets everything once the games begin.

And I just don't see how an organization can overcome that without making fundamental changes in its approach.
 
rodderick

rodderick

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ManicCompression said:
Mac is terrible, but I don't think another team in the league would sign JJS or Devante or Tyquan if BB were to cut them. Maybe TT goes to a practice squad. Gesicki is probably out of the league after this. DD is the only receiver worth anything, and he's probably 3-4 on a good team. Henry is an... average tight end at best? Everything is interrelated. This team needs a lot of help on that side of the ball.
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I do think Smith-Schuster and Parker would get picked up, yes. Mike Gesicki will also get a (admitedly smaller) one year deal to play for someone next year. I don't think it's all on Mac and those players are below average receiving options at best (said so at the time this roster was put together), but the QB play is just completely inept. I mean, they threw the ball more than 4 yards down the field 13 times this past Sunday and completed 2 passes with 3 interceptions. Everything that wasn't a screen was a disaster, I don't think it's possible to even get a good grasp on exactly how much the weapons suck at this point. I believe the talent level at receiver would prevent them from being a good offense, but this is next level awful. Now, the QB play wasn't this horrific in the first three weeks and the receivers absolutely were a hinderance then. But to even get back to the level of performance they were at until the Cowboys game would represent a massive, massive improvement.
 
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lexrageorge

lexrageorge

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Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
He's obviously very stubborn and hellbent to go with his best practices even in the face of bad results. It's likely the only way he is wired.

The essential problem is that the Pats for 20 years have gone with a "practice well and you'll get to play" approach, which works when you have a sociopathic maniac at QB who demands perfection of himself and others and then delivers. By all accounts Mac practices well, and reads the defenses in practice better than Zappe and Grier. The problem is that once the game starts he melts down and can't process things fast enough. So they've got a guy who practices well and takes to being coached and then promptly forgets everything once the games begin.

And I just don't see how an organization can overcome that without making fundamental changes in its approach.
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Of course, the alternatives on the roster are clearly no better. Grier has been waived multiple times but keeps being available to sign with the Pats practice squad. Zappe has shown zilch when he plays. Cunningham isn't ready, and may never be ready for all we know. It's not the organizational approach when it comes to Mac; it's the QB himself. But there are no better options for this season.

Point is: I don't think Mac sucking means that the organization has to change top-to-bottom. Draft busts and disappointing free agent signings are a bigger concern.
 
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DennyDoyle'sBoil

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
I'm always gonna play "Your Love," a reminder of better times in the past.
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The b-side for Your Love when released was a song called 61 Seconds. Your Love will be A14, and 61 Seconds is B14.

Maybe Nip can install a change machine during the update so we have plenty of quarters.

“Belichick Fucking Sucks and I Fucking Hate His Guts” is C10. The B side is an obscure instrumental called “Long Snapper.” It’s D10. Just an FYI for salva.
 
lexrageorge

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rodderick said:
I do think Smith-Schuster and Parker would get picked up, yes. Mike Gesicki will also get a (admitedly smaller) one year deal to play for someone next year.
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JuJu would be granted a training camp tryout with some team. The only complicating factor is that he would likely be a post-June 1st cut for cap reasons, but agree he would still likely get picked up. Unclear if his knee will allow his career to continue.

Parker will be 31 next season, a tough age for league average (at best) wide receivers. Gesicki will sign somewhere to be a rotational tight end a-la Pharaoh Brown.
 
Smiling Joe Hesketh

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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lexrageorge said:
Of course, the alternatives on the roster are clearly no better. Grier has been waived multiple times but keeps being available to sign with the Pats practice squad. Zappe has shown zilch when he plays. Cunningham isn't ready, and may never be ready for all we know. It's not the organizational approach when it comes to Mac; it's the QB himself. But there are no better options for this season.
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Even so the change should have been made long ago. Zappe stinks, but perhaps he stinks marginally less than Mac. We clown on the Jets but even they decided enough was enough with Wilson. Boyle also stinks but at least they are trying something different. The Pats seem reluctant to do the same.
 
Jimbodandy

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lexrageorge said:
Of course, the alternatives on the roster are clearly no better. Grier has been waived multiple times but keeps being available to sign with the Pats practice squad. Zappe has shown zilch when he plays. Cunningham isn't ready, and may never be ready for all we know. It's not the organizational approach when it comes to Mac; it's the QB himself. But there are no better options for this season.
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It's emotional at this point. Zappe went 9-14 for 59 and an INT in the second half, and people were like "at least he put up 7 points". I wish that we could run a simulation with one of these other mediocre-to-awful QBs on this team, but we can't. I'm all for having Zappe go out there to get eaten alive too, as it would at least shift the conversation to perhaps a recognition that the entire offense is a big pile of suck.
 
lexrageorge

lexrageorge

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Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
Even so the change should have been made long ago. Zappe stinks, but perhaps he stinks marginally less than Mac. We clown on the Jets but even they decided enough was enough with Wilson. Boyle also stinks but at least they are trying something different. The Pats seem reluctant to do the same.
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When there was actual benefit to winning games, it was Bill's judgment (and that of the rest of the coaches) that Mac gave them the better chance over Zappe. Right now, there is absolutely zero benefit to winning more games, so I could care less who Bill plays the rest of the season.
 
Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Jimbodandy said:
It's emotional at this point. Zappe went 9-14 for 59 and an INT in the second half, and people were like "at least he put up 7 points". I wish that we could run a simulation with one of these other mediocre-to-awful QBs on this team, but we can't. I'm all for having Zappe go out there to get eaten alive too, as it would at least shift the conversation to perhaps a recognition that the entire offense is a big pile of suck.
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I mean, it's true, he did lead a scoring drive, and got robbed of another when Ryland shanked a gimme FG. They at least showed a little something with Zappe, they showed absolutely nothing with Mac. Yes, this is like arguing if rotten eggs taste better than spoiled milk.
 
sezwho

sezwho

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Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
Mac is by far the biggest issue on the team and spending one second bemoaning anything else on the club is a spectacular waste of time in my opinion. He's so bad you cannot even begin to evaluate the rest of the players.
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As much as we disagree about the Patriots structural problems with coaching and roster, Mac's weekly garbage scows mean there is a lot of truth to the bolded.
 
sezwho

sezwho

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Groovenstein said:
Do we even need the tracks? People could just type “I POST,” like Michael Scott declaring bankruptcy.
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I’m signing up for ‘they all suck on offense’ which is B12 Ballroom Blitz

edit - but I don’t think there’s anyone that wants to see Mac this week, and that kind of universal opinion is rare stuff indeed around here.
 
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BaseballJones

BaseballJones

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rodderick said:
I do think Smith-Schuster and Parker would get picked up, yes. Mike Gesicki will also get a (admitedly smaller) one year deal to play for someone next year. I don't think it's all on Mac and those players are below average receiving options at best (said so at the time this roster was put together), but the QB play is just completely inept. I mean, they threw the ball more than 4 yards down the field 13 times this past Sunday and completed 2 passes with 3 interceptions. Everything that wasn't a screen was a disaster, I don't think it's possible to even get a good graps on exactly how much the weapons suck at this point. I believe the talent level at receiver would prevent them from being a good offense, but this is next level awful. Now, the QB play wasn't this horrific in the first three weeks and the receivers absolutely were a hinderance then. But to even get back to the level of performance they were at until the Cowboys game would represent a massive, massive improvement.
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Tom Brady fixes a lot of things, but I'm 100% convinced that if Tom Brady were on this year's Patriots team, the offense would be doing just fine. I think they need serious talent upgrade everywhere on offense, but the last six games the OL has been much better, the run game has been really good, and though obviously the film shows that a guy like Thornton is bad at route running, the idea that Brady couldn't move the ball with Henry and Gesicki and Douglas and even Parker, is a nonstarter idea for me. Brady would have, with this exact team, 7-8 wins minimum.

I've really come around to the idea that Mac (and Zappe, who isn't any better) is the fundamental problem. And this is hard for me to admit because I was very much #teammac when the draft came about and as many of you here know, I've been a pretty staunch defender of him. The crazy thing is, not all his numbers look bad. For example:

On Target % - that is, the percentage of passes thrown that are on target. NE ranks 24th, which obviously is bad. But it's far from the worst in the league. They are even with Baltimore, who is averaging 27.0 points a game (compared with NE's 13.5). They are ahead of Houston and Pittsburgh and Seattle, all teams in the playoff mix, but who are averaging more points a game than the Pats.

Bad Throw % - that is, the percentage of passes thrown that are "bad throws", excluding spikes or intentional throw-aways. NE ranks 24th as well, which, again, is bad, but far from the worst in the league. It's a better percentage (17.6%) than GB, Pit, the Rams, and Houston, among others. It's just a tick behind SF (at 17.1%).

So there are numerous teams whose QBs have thrown a higher percentage of bad passes and who are on target less than Mac is. But Mac just cannot get this team to score points at all, even with an improved running game.

Mac is 20th in passer rating - not good, but at the bottom end of the middle third of the league.

So a bunch of the metrics - basic and advanced - show that while Mac is bad, he's not catastrophically bad. And yet...HE IS. Interestingly, he's even getting help from his receivers on the whole. Mac is #9 in the NFL in receivers getting YAC at 5.4 per completion. And the Pats are #14 in drop %, which isn't elite obviously, but it's slightly better than average. Miami, for example, is at 4.9% drops, while NE is at 4.5%. So the receivers tend to not drop passes very often, and they do a good job getting YAC. But MAC CANNOT SCORE POINTS.

And on top of that, he actively (unintentionally, of course) hurts the team with interceptions, bad sacks, and even pick sixes. Mac is 12th among active QBs in career pick-sixes thrown. And he's only been in the league 3 years. Here's the list of guys above him and the year they entered the league:

1. Stafford - 30 (2009)
2. Dalton - 18 (2011)
3. Carr - 16 (2014)
4. Cousins - 14 (2012)
5. Winston - 12 (2015)
6. Tannehill - 10 (2012)
7. Goff - 9 (2016)
8. Prescott - 9 (2016)
9. Geno Smith - 9 (2013)
10. Gabbert - 7 (2011)
11. Wilson - 7 (2012)
12. Mac Jones - 6 (2021)

Some of that is bad luck. Like, it's one thing to get intercepted. It's another thing for the interceptor to return it for an opposing TD. But still...this is remarkable how often, given how few years he's been in the league, Mac throws a pick six.

So yeah, all this to say, Mac absolutely, positively, 100% needs to be replaced, no questions asked. It was worth the experiment but the experiment is over and it's very much time to move on.
 
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