2023-24 Celtics
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You can squint and see him as a bigger Grant Williams. Good floor spacing as a 3-point thread, serviceable game in the paint, with enough agility that he can probably bother Bam Adebayo on D (though I expect Horford remains our Embiid killer).
There's just a lot of steps on the journey from him in Utah today to him being in Boston. I don't really want to imagine it too hard until he's bought out, or until we really know what we've got with Queta and Brissett.
People still don't get how good Jokic really is, particularly offensively. Even Embiid and Giannis just aren't anywhere close.
The bench played better because.........
Joe Mazzulla sparks Celtics bench with a special film session (bostonglobe.com)
Joe Mazzulla sparks Celtics bench with a special film session (bostonglobe.com)
Obviously ridiculously small sample size, greatly impacted by the 155 point outburst vs. Indy. But...
OFFENSE
FG% - #2 (.507) - only Denver (.508) is ahead of them
3ptFG% - #4 (.404) - at the top is LAC at .420
2ptFG% - #2 (.591) - only Denver (.601) is ahead of them
FT% - #3 (.838) - at the top is Atlanta at .852
Points - #1 (127.0) - next best is Atlanta at 122.8
Rebounds - #1 (52.3) - next best is NY at 49.8
DEFENSE (so these are opponents' numbers vs. Bos)
FG% - #2 (.425) - only GS (.415) is ahead of them
3ptFG% - #10 (.340) - at the top is NO at .280
2ptFG% - #2 (.480) - only Det (.475) is ahead of them
Points - #8 (106.5) - at the top is Min at 100.8
Rebounds - #3 (40.8) - at the top is Brooklyn at 40.8
Steals - #8 (8.8) - at the top is Portland at 10.6
Blocks - #24 (4.0) - at the top is Utah at 7.5
That's a lot of numbers at or near the top of the NBA. They're low in assists (#18 at 24.0) because they have such incredible spacing that guys have huge lanes to drive, so assists aren't really needed.
OFFENSE
FG% - #2 (.507) - only Denver (.508) is ahead of them
3ptFG% - #4 (.404) - at the top is LAC at .420
2ptFG% - #2 (.591) - only Denver (.601) is ahead of them
FT% - #3 (.838) - at the top is Atlanta at .852
Points - #1 (127.0) - next best is Atlanta at 122.8
Rebounds - #1 (52.3) - next best is NY at 49.8
DEFENSE (so these are opponents' numbers vs. Bos)
FG% - #2 (.425) - only GS (.415) is ahead of them
3ptFG% - #10 (.340) - at the top is NO at .280
2ptFG% - #2 (.480) - only Det (.475) is ahead of them
Points - #8 (106.5) - at the top is Min at 100.8
Rebounds - #3 (40.8) - at the top is Brooklyn at 40.8
Steals - #8 (8.8) - at the top is Portland at 10.6
Blocks - #24 (4.0) - at the top is Utah at 7.5
That's a lot of numbers at or near the top of the NBA. They're low in assists (#18 at 24.0) because they have such incredible spacing that guys have huge lanes to drive, so assists aren't really needed.
I hear almost no talk about Rob being gone. We all loved Rob. His approval rate was pretty close to 100%. But the thing that makes this team so interesting is the full commitment to playing 5-out with guys who can also defend. The space so far is incredible. And Rob being gone is a part of this, he was part of the reason Tatum faced so many double teams last year. They don't have quite enough individual talent to win a title being somewhat committed to this scheme -- we've seen the offense grind down two years straight. But fully committed, boy does that make them hard to deal with. Tatum bullying smaller guys, Porzingis or Brown shooting over mismatches like they aren't even there -- this is something else entirely.
Trading Rob felt terrible but it was 100% the right thing to do.
Trading Rob felt terrible but it was 100% the right thing to do.
Yeah. I miss "What Was". I'll always miss What Was. But I'm not gonna miss "what was coming" if we didn't do the trades.
Brain trust in Portlandia today:
View: https://twitter.com/MaineCeltics/status/1720507514255487245?s=20
View: https://twitter.com/MaineCeltics/status/1720507514255487245?s=20
Couple that with seemingly ending the world of two bigs as a default lineup, plus replacing Marcus with Jrue and you have eliminated three guys with limited offensive skill sets.
I will go to my grave believing they win the 2022 Finals if Rob hadn't torn his meniscus in March, just as much as I believe that KG's knee injury cost those modern Big 3 teams a three-peat. But the Timelord Victorious that we saw from January to March of 2022 was never coming back, and playing at least two of Al/Smart/mortal Rob in crunchtime just left too much room for defenders to cheat against Brown and Tatum without the benefit of a world destroying defense. I am sad that the homegrown group didn't get to win a title together, but I have no regrets that Brad didn't try to run it back and I am overjoyed with him turning Rob and Smart into Porzingis and Holiday while keeping enough assets to make another big move if necessary.
The squad we are currently seeing may match or eclipse it, but for my money, that two month window in 2022 was on a par with the heights the 2007-2008 (including the beginning of '08-09) team hit as the best basketball we've seen since 1985-1986.
For me personally, KP's interior defense is part of the reason why we haven't felt Rob's absence more. That was a main area of concern with Rob leaving and in the early going it hasn't been an issue at all. (Adding Holiday, meaning better perimeter defense, doesn't hurt either).
But it is worth thinking about how the team would look without the Holiday deal. We'd probably be playing a lot more 2-big.
C: Rob or Al
PF: KP
SF: Tatum
SG: Brown
PG: White
----
6th: Brogdon
7th: Al or Rob
Rest of bench: similar
That's a strong top 7, and the team would be better able to withstand an injury to a big than the current Celtics. There's also offense off the bench in Brogdon. Some of the great 2-big D of the 2021-22 stretch run could be replicated with this group. And, compared to last season, the team is still adding a needed offensive dimension with KP.
On the other hand, KP sharing the floor with Rob might somewhat restrict KP to being a perimeter player, not his best role. And White has always been more combo guard than straight PG - as a primary ballhandler is there enough support for him in this lineup. And where the current team might be challenged if a big is lost, this no Holiday version would struggle if they lost White or Brogdon. And, I haven't even directly mentioned all of the benefits of Holiday.
Clearly, the team is better now, though a little less deep, especially at big.
Derrick White is out tonight.
View: https://twitter.com/celtics/status/1720792839188037815?s=20
Boston Celtics: #NEBHInjuryReport update: Neemias Queta (right foot injury management) - OUT Derrick White (personal reasons) - OUT
I would expect that this would be a good game to start Al and go with a bigger lineup, since Brooklyn starts a 6'10" non-shooter in Ben Simmons. Al's had a light workload so far, so they can on him a little bit more in this game.
View: https://twitter.com/celtics/status/1720792839188037815?s=20
Boston Celtics: #NEBHInjuryReport update: Neemias Queta (right foot injury management) - OUT Derrick White (personal reasons) - OUT
I would expect that this would be a good game to start Al and go with a bigger lineup, since Brooklyn starts a 6'10" non-shooter in Ben Simmons. Al's had a light workload so far, so they can on him a little bit more in this game.
Claxton is likely out, they’ve been starting DFS and Simmons at center. I could see them wanting to keep Al off the bench, as it’s been an adjustment for him.
I wouldn’t be shocked to see Hauser or Brissett get the nod.
Is it bad that my immediate reaction was "thank god we upgraded before the league caught on to how much they've slipped?"
Man, looking at that, it feels like a bullet dodged.
That's a good team, but I wouldn't feel awesome going up against Denver or GSW or Milwaukee (if they get things together) with it.
KP really unlocks things when he shares the floor with 4 elite perimeter guys. The spacing is ridiculous.
This team has also shown that "bench scoring" isn't a thing if you have 5 shot creators in your starting lineup. You just stagger the starters, et voila, no need for the traditional scoring 6th man. That's a role that teams without tons of scorers have to have.
Brad has plenty of 2nds and a green light to spend. 3rd big will get upgraded if Queta isn't up to the job. Much better to be elite with Jrue over Brogdon than to optimize for 3rd big depth in November.
it isn't even so much of a TL/MS SLIP (which is probably there) it's just that they were the currency needed to add KP & Jrue, which are meaningful UPGRADEs and fit better with the JAYs & White.
I guess. I think the slip is real, and would have been felt hard if Brad had just run it back.
Brad definitely sold high on both, which is what you want. Smart was a great on-the-block defender when switched on to BIGs but his ability to stay in front of quick guards was deteriorating IMO.
TL is nowhere near where he was 2 seasons ago. That Rob will probably never return and he would gum up the offense
ALSO Brogdon was less than thrilled about the Clipper's nixed deal and didn't bother to show up in Boston this summer. That was a simmering situation and would have been a media talking point/distraction. He probably needed to be dealt
I guess we should also talk about losing Grant, who has been hitting 3s at a very high level for Dallas (not altogether shocking). BUT his defense on Joker last night was comical (right nobody can guard Nikola). Grant hung his hat on being a "pesky" defender against BIG man but by the end of his time in Boston, most BIGs had figured out his schtick and easily started shooting over him. I like Grant but am not lamenting his loss either. Good for Dallas, he will be a nice player on that contract for them.
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I’ll preface this by saying Marcus is probably my second favorite Celtics player ever, behind Pierce. I loved Rob too, incredibly fun to watch.
That said, Smart’s defense fell off a cliff last year. Offensively he’s been improving some, but teams would have still gladly given him open shots in order to throw his defender at Tatum. People on Twitter and such are going way too far with the anti Smart things, but Holiday is absolutely a clear upgrade. It was time to move on, I think he was getting dealt regardless of the original KP trade falling through or not.
Rob is just never going to be the same guy he was two seasons ago. While their defense was still elite with him on the court last season, you could see that he couldn’t do some of the same things as in the past. I also don’t think he’s going to get any healthier going forward lol.
Brad has come really close to building the perfect modern day basketball team. Also, I remember arguing with a poster here a few months ago, he insisted that Porzingis was just a slightly better shooter than Smart. I wonder if said poster still feels that way.
We would have been relying on 2022-23 KP to play a big role. Not a bad idea, but it's very easy to see why Brad went all out to get Jrue.
Pretty cupcake schedule recently:
View: https://twitter.com/john_karalis/status/1720849086058840084?s=46
View: https://twitter.com/john_karalis/status/1720849086058840084?s=46
Maybe instead of everyone getting up for the C they’ll consider it a scheduled loss and rest guys for beatable opponents
I liked all of Brad’s moves this summer in isolation, but I REALLY liked them as a whole. While Brad is a smart (pun intended) guy, some of that was most likely just dumb luck.
I still like this team with KP, Brogdon, and Rob along with the Jays, White and Al. But it also leaves a bit to be desired compared to the current team.
Jrue really feels like the perfect Smart upgrade and final piece for the starting 5, yet there was really no way Brad could know he would even be available when he made the Smart trade.
Maybe he gamed it all out perfectly, but seems more likely to me he lucked into going from a good outcome to the (hopefully) perfect one.
I still like this team with KP, Brogdon, and Rob along with the Jays, White and Al. But it also leaves a bit to be desired compared to the current team.
Jrue really feels like the perfect Smart upgrade and final piece for the starting 5, yet there was really no way Brad could know he would even be available when he made the Smart trade.
Maybe he gamed it all out perfectly, but seems more likely to me he lucked into going from a good outcome to the (hopefully) perfect one.
Beware of the big letdown spot. We should have the horses to withstand the natural exhale but this could be a sneaky tough one.
Being in a position to take advantage of lucky opportunities is part of being smart.
I still can't believe he managed to turn: aging and always dinged up smart, diminished TL, and malcontent Malcom into Jrue and Porzingis with almost no additional cost. each of those players situation individually you'd figure you'll get a fraction of their value. nope, massive upgrades.
Right...this is exactly why you sell high on Smart. You're then positioned for a big-salary guard who costs a couple picks, even if you don't know precisely who it will be.
No doubt, luck favors the prepared.
But still likely some significant luck that we were able to replace Smart with Jrue later in the same offseason, considering Jrue was not close to available at the time of the KP/Smart trade.
For sure, "some guard" was likely on the radar.
The fact that it was Jrue was some serious good fortune.
No one's talking much about this yet, but his turnovers are way up this year. Granted, some of it may be getting used to a new team, but he had five last night and has an average of 4.2 per game through six. His assist-to-turnover ratio is a not that good 1.31.
Yup. At a glance his numbers aren't terrible (7.4 points, 10 rebounds, 7.4 assists) but he's still ultra passive (4 free throw attempts in 5 games) and in a very small sample, the team has been terrible when he's on the court (-18.9 net per 100). It's remarkable that he made 3 all-star teams, 2 all-defense and one all-nba team before the age of 25, then he had one bad playoff series, and he's just broken.
Yeah, I guess the Pacers rested Haliburton too, on Wednesday - and needed everything out of him last night to beat the Cavs. He took over in the last few minutes of the game. So, wise decision by them. Losing by 40 rather than 50 to the Boston Steamrollers wouldn't have helped them much.
Even at a glance, 7.4 points in 31.4 minutes. Same kinda deal as last year. Reb and Ast are ok but not enough to make up for his general mediocre-ness.
He's just a shell of the player he used to be, not much different than last year so far. So strange.
The scoring is just non-existent, to the point where it actively damages the team. He's 250th (out of 279) in points per 100 possessions. If he had played enough to qualify last year, he would've been 234th out of 245. This might be palatable if he were still a defensive beast as there were a number of defensive specialists who scored less than he did per 100 last year (Draymond, Thybulle, Caruso, Beverly, Tucker), but he's not even great at that anymore.
Fultz was never a good NBA player though, and he clearly suffered some sort of shoulder injury that fucked things up. There was definitely something mental there too, but Simmons was an all-NBA level player (even without being able to shoot from outside), and somehow lost it in his mid 20s. As noted above, Nick Anderson is the usual Chuck Knoblauch equivalent (though he was never remotely on the same level as Simmons).
I've always wondered if anything happened to Westbrook w/regards to his FT shooting. First 9 years of his career (through his MVP season), he shot .823 from the line. Last 6+ years, he's .691 from the line. For a guy who got to the line 7+ times per game in his prime, that's a pretty huge drop in efficiency.
Yup here's one we forget about. Guy went from one of the best players in college basketball and the consensus #1 pick to being unable to shoot a basketball almost overnight.
His is really an odd story. He seemed like one of the best players in college basketball, but his team went 9-22 and didn't even make the NIT. He shot 41% from 3 that one year in college, but also just 65% from the FT line. He didn't come out of nowhere (ESPN had him as the 7th ranked high schooler in his class in 2016), but in retrospect it's kind of baffling that he was the consensus #1 pick in that draft (someone once described his ceiling as James Harden but with defense, which always stuck with me). How often do #1 overall picks play for college teams that are that bad?