How long will Chaim last?

Benj4ever said:

Boston sports writers are the worst. Let's cherry-pick some meaningless stats and throw in a ridiculous "Endless roster churn." Dude, if the team weren't having ridiculously bad injury luck, there wouldn't be all of this "roster churn!" And, yeah, let's forget all the positives, too.

* Paxton, Bello, Whitlock, and Houck are the makings of a very solid rotation (jury still out on Crawford)
* team staying afloat despite Sale going down again (see above)
* Story and Mondesi's returns point to better things to come
* Duran doing better than anyone thought possible going into the season
* Turner, Yoshida, and Martin very solid additions
* Devers threatening to turn things around, which would be a big shot in the arm for the offense
* Wong developing into a nice starting catcher. Huge impact throwing runners out

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Relying on injury prone players to not get injured is not "bad injury luck", it's poor planning.

Paxton is 34 years old. We are clearly competing for nothing but the #1 pick again this season, so he'll be 35 next season when MAYBE we might matter, in a best case scenario.
Similarly, Justin Turner will be 39 years old next season.
Similarly, Chris Martin will be 38 part-way through next season.

Mondesi has been shut down from all baseball activities and looks likely to not even pick a bat for the Sox this season. Story isn't going to play until, best case scenario, August.

They are 5.5 games back of the last WC spot and would need to leapfrog 5 other teams to get it. To say they have "stayed afloat" despite losing Sale is a stretch.

tims4wins said:

2) He’s also not wrong that the Boston Red Sox should never be a “let’s see what happens in 2 years!” franchise. It’s really not acceptable to not be competitive (by which I mean actually competing for a title, not playing around .500 and maybe sneaking into a wild card and going on a run like in 2021) at the major league level for an extended stretch.

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That might have been true when we were a top 3 or 4 in payroll, but Sportrac has us at #15 right now, behind such powerhouses as the White Sox and Rockies (no wonder they are better than us). Of course, ownership and many on this board appear to consider this a feature and not a bug when it comes to Bloom. I've been as vocal a critic of Bloom as anybody, but at some point you have to think he's just following orders.

If we're 15th in payroll, I wonder where we rank in revenues. If the attendance keeps dropping, maybe we won't be at the top of that table much longer either. I suppose they'll always have the tourists, but bad, boring baseball does not pair well with the highest ticket prices in the game.

Daniel_Son said:

What changes would you like to see made to this organization as it currently stands?

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Regardless of any changes they may or may not make at the top, I'd like to see more of an emphasis on defense and baserunning from top to bottom, to stop locking DH's into the position, and to draft guys who will stick at their positions. I'd also hope they take the draft off from middle infielders and focus on pitching and outfield defenders.

soxhop411 said:

I bet my life savings that if the Mets and Sox had their offseason’s swapped and had the same record the mets have today. Pete would be complaining about reckless spending (just like the reporters in NY are doing right now)

Large payroll does not equal success

The mets (highest payroll in Mlb)
The padres (third highest)
Phillies ( 4th highest)
All have records below 500.

PIT (28th)
TB (27th)
Ari (21st)
Are all leading their division with a record greater than .500.

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This.
The Sox this year are exactly who we thought they were. A .500ish team. It’s the result of a farm system that had been asleep for years. When you have no cost controlled talent, you rely on free agency, which is a fools errand. See the above list. How happy would you be if the Sox had a long term commitment to Trea Turner right now? Or Carlos Correa? Or Javy Baez? Or Carlos Rondon? Or Willson Contreras?

You know who could build a 1st place team under these circumstances? The guy who can flip a coin and be right 80% of the time. That was Bloom in 2021 and Ben in 2013. That kind of lightning doesn’t strike every year.

Daniel_Son said:

I'll preface this by stating that I'm probably a bigger Bloom defender than most posters here. I concede that not all of his moves have worked out well, and he has not been perfect. But I'm interested in taking a different approach to these discussions. Maybe you guys on the other side of the fence are, too.

To those of you who are calling for Bloom's head, I'd like to pose a hypothetical. Let's say that John Henry and FSG call an emergency press conference tomorrow and announce that Bloom is gone, effective immediately. Boom, done. No more Chaim Bloom.

What happens next? Who's at the helm? What would you like to see our organizational goals to be? Winning another World Series as quickly as possible? Building a consistent contender? How do you think they should do this?

And no take backs, no relitigating old trades and wishing for Mookies and Xanders. What changes would you like to see made to this organization as it currently stands?

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I can answer that!

I don’t have to answer that because I’m not making millions of dollars to make those player decisions and I’m not a multi billionaire who owns this team!

moondog80 said:

You know who could build a 1st place team under these circumstances? The guy who can flip a coin and be right 80% of the time. That was Bloom in 2021 and Ben in 2013. That kind of lightning doesn’t strike every year.

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There’s a long way between building a 1st place team and….this.

I don’t accept 500 is the foreordained Sox ceiling and no one could do better and it’s just darned luck then.

Rebuilding the system means only one avenue of team development is closed: trading prospects, not all. I would expect that four years of 200m+ payroll and no Win Now Mandate we would have at minimum people who could field their positions.

Im pretty sure I’ll get evicerated but please excuse a brief soap box: playing for the-Red Sox should mean something about playing the game the right way. Blooms bad news bears may stay close to 500 but it’s not building a culture. No Heat jokes.

They still have Dermody in the system. The “Right Way” has been lost by the team

sezwho said:

There’s a long way between building a 1st place team and….this.

I don’t accept 500 is the foreordained Sox ceiling and no one could do better and it’s just darned luck then.

Rebuilding the system means only one avenue of team development is closed: trading prospects, not all. I would expect that four years of 200m+ payroll and no Win Now Mandate we would have at minimum people who could field their positions.

Im pretty sure I’ll get evicerated but please excuse a brief soap box: playing for the-Red Sox should mean something about playing the game the right way. Blooms bad news bears may stay close to 500 but it’s not building a culture. No Heat jokes.

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OK. What team would you have put together? Go back to November (or November 2019, if you wish) and tell me how you would have used the available resources to build the team. Do it honestly, without the aid of hindsight, and let me know how it goes.

moondog80 said:

This.
The Sox this year are exactly who we thought they were. A .500ish team.

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In the preseason poll 85% of the board picked the Sox to finish .500 or better, and 53% had them at 85 wins or more. So in fairness, people here thought they’d be a better than a .500 team. And very few people thought they’d have a losing record.

Obviously there’s still a lot of season left.

8slim said:

In the preseason poll 85% of the board picked the Sox to finish .500 or better, and 53% had them at 85 wins or more. So in fairness, people here thought they’d be a better than a .500 team. And very few people thought they’d have a losing record.

Obviously there’s still a lot of season left.

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Fangraphs seems like a fair, unbiased measuring stick -- they had the Sox at 81.4 wins.

moondog80 said:

Fangraphs seems like a fair, unbiased measuring stick -- they had the Sox at 81.4 wins.

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I thought you were talking specifically about our expectations. You said they’re exactly who WE thought they were. I’m not trying to pick a fight.

8slim said:

I thought you were talking specifically about our expectations. You said they’re exactly who WE thought they were. I’m not trying to pick a fight.

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Neither am I. I used the term "we" loosely. We're all good.

The Pete Abe piece is garbage. He's supposed to be an objective writer and that's garbage fanboy-ism on display. I expect good sports writers (journalists in general) to be objective and that's not. Generally I still support the long-term plan that I believe Bloom has instituted. He's put together what I believe is a good long term core that are on the field:
Verdugo (pending extension)
Duran
Yoshida
Casas
Devers
Wong
Bello
Whitlock
Houck
Crawford
Winchowski

Short term a lot of this isn't working out currently and perhaps some of these guys may not be a fit long term but I still think it's a good solid core with the mL's looking good (despite Pete's bullshit) to fill in the missing spots and developing some of those struggling recently graduated young players. This season is growing pains to me. It's frustrating but I'm still excited about that core and see the flexibility that he's created for Henry's wallet (hopefully) to add through trade or FA signing to upgrade the places that need it.
I don't see a team with no hope and no future. I see a young core struggling that needs patience and time. I also see a manager that is feeling pressure and isn't responding well to the fanbase's need to scream and cry and making poor decisions in play and appears to be letting the frustrations of the players run amok.
I believe Henry wanted Bloom to install a long term plan that would have some problematic years in between but he clearly needs something to show for it in '24 and '25. I can guaran-fucking-tee that if Mayer is called up as starting SS for '24 and struggles like the Yankees promising SS has that there'll be a million calls to send him back down and screams for Bloom's firing. The right call (which it appears the Yankees are doing) is to be patient and try not to let the frustrations overwhelm short term decision making (either in game or personnel roster decisions).

moondog80 said:

OK. What team would you have put together? Go back to November (or November 2019, if you wish) and tell me how you would have used the available resources to build the team. Do it honestly, without the aid of hindsight, and let me know how it goes.

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Sure I’ll finish that when you finish exploring how every option ended at 500 thanks

It all depends on how good you think that core is. Need to see a lot of development from guys like Wong, Houck, Winck, etc to be really excited by that. Wong, Houck, Whitlock, Duran, Verdugo are all older than Devers, for example- how much projection are we anticipating here?

moondog80 said:

OK. What team would you have put together? Go back to November (or November 2019, if you wish) and tell me how you would have used the available resources to build the team. Do it honestly, without the aid of hindsight, and let me know how it goes.

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I'd say even with the benefit of hindsight, it would be hard to put together a great team given the roster in 2019. If you assume the Red Sox could have signed anyone to the contracts they got from anyone else (which we know to be untrue in the case of Eflin), could you build a roster? Benintendi and Bradley are useless today. Vazquez has an OPS+ of 59. Xander is struggling due to long term wrist injury, and probably wouldn't be on the team if you don't want his enormous contract. Mookie is still good, so right field would be covered at $30 million a year, but you wouldn't have Wong. And the pitching staff would still be a mess.

Chaim hasn't done much to make me think he should keep the job. I just don't know if it was even possible to build a great team today given what was in the system when he took over.

Max Power said:

I'd say even with the benefit of hindsight, it would be hard to put together a great team given the roster in 2019. If you assume the Red Sox could have signed anyone to the contracts they got from anyone else (which we know to be untrue in the case of Eflin), could you build a roster? Benintendi and Bradley are useless today. Vazquez has an OPS+ of 59. Xander is struggling due to long term wrist injury, and probably wouldn't be on the team if you don't want his enormous contract. Mookie is still good, so right field would be covered at $30 million a year, but you wouldn't have Wong. And the pitching staff would still be a mess.

Chaim hasn't done much to make me think he should keep the job. I just don't know if it was even possible to build a great team today given what was in the system when he took over.

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Right. When the farm system doesn't produce, you have to win in free agency, in a lot of spots. And that's really, really hard to do on a consistent basis. One of many examples: Kyle Schwarber (one of Bloom's massive failures according to the same people complaining that he doesn't care about defense) is hitting 177/325/439 with a WAR of -0.6.

Well, in an ideal world, they would have found a way to move guys like Bogaerts (no trade, I know), Eovaldi, Wacha, JD (he was cooked, nobody wanted him!) Strahm, Renfroe (being under the cap last year might have been a good idea) etc. like they did with Vazquez. Of course it takes two to tango, and they were so bare in AAA (as they are now) that the last few months of the season would have had a lot of low level replacement players playing out the string, which may not have been a good look.

But yeah, team building is hard. Especially when you are trying to turn over half the roster each year via short term FA signings.

Daniel_Son said:

I'll preface this by stating that I'm probably a bigger Bloom defender than most posters here. I concede that not all of his moves have worked out well, and he has not been perfect. But I'm interested in taking a different approach to these discussions. Maybe you guys on the other side of the fence are, too.

To those of you who are calling for Bloom's head, I'd like to pose a hypothetical. Let's say that John Henry and FSG call an emergency press conference tomorrow and announce that Bloom is gone, effective immediately. Boom, done. No more Chaim Bloom.

What happens next? Who's at the helm? What would you like to see our organizational goals to be? Winning another World Series as quickly as possible? Building a consistent contender? How do you think they should do this?

And no take backs, no relitigating old trades and wishing for Mookies and Xanders. What changes would you like to see made to this organization as it currently stands?

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There's an old adage, the first law of holes, which states "If you find yourself in a hole, stop digging". The Red Sox are in a hole that Bloom created, and I wouldn't shed a tear if your hypothetical scenario came true.
As to what comes next, the second law of holes applies; "when you stop digging, you're still in a hole". There's no quick, easy fix that will suddenly turn the Red Sox into a contender. I can't give a name for the next person in charge, but the immediate goal on the major league level should be at least having a fundamentally sound major league roster. No more acquiring players and hoping they can play a different position. No more acquiring injured players on the cheap and hoping they somehow get healthy fast. Also, if you have a player who can solidify a position for a long time to come don't be afraid to make a long-term commitment. Yes, there's a risk involved in signing a guy for a long time, but there's also something to be said for having players to build around. As for the minor leagues I'd look long and hard at the player development philosophy. When Theo Epstein was running the show there was a commitment to helping each and every player, no matter what level of prospect, to become the best baseball player he possibly be. Is this still true? Mookie Betts wasn't a highly regarded prospect when he first signed and came very close to quitting baseball. But a couple of years into his career something clicked, and we all know the rest of the story.

Max Power said:

I'd say even with the benefit of hindsight, it would be hard to put together a great team given the roster in 2019. If you assume the Red Sox could have signed anyone to the contracts they got from anyone else (which we know to be untrue in the case of Eflin), could you build a roster? Benintendi and Bradley are useless today. Vazquez has an OPS+ of 59. Xander is struggling due to long term wrist injury, and probably wouldn't be on the team if you don't want his enormous contract. Mookie is still good, so right field would be covered at $30 million a year, but you wouldn't have Wong. And the pitching staff would still be a mess.

Chaim hasn't done much to make me think he should keep the job. I just don't know if it was even possible to build a great team today given what was in the system when he took over.

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Did you take a moment and reread what you wrote? Are you honestly saying there was no path for Bloom to make this team great? Are you saying you would not want to have Mookie because we have at best league average Wong?

Are you Bloom's mother? I can't possibly see another reason someone would write something like this.

With the constant talk about the farm system 4 years ago… I thought the approach was that we had time to restock because we had a young core at the major league level? Betts, Bogaerts, Devers, Vasquez, JBJ, Benintendi… I guess I’m dumb, but I thought that crew would play together for a few more years post 2018 and we’d be able to develop a new crop of replacements (while patching the holes with smart FA signings). I didn’t anticipate Henry’s zeal to shed payroll.

Sandy Leon Trotsky said:

The Pete Abe piece is garbage. He's supposed to be an objective writer and that's garbage fanboy-ism on display. I expect good sports writers (journalists in general) to be objective and that's not. Generally I still support the long-term plan that I believe Bloom has instituted. He's put together what I believe is a good long term core that are on the field:
Verdugo (pending extension)
Duran
Yoshida
Casas
Devers
Wong
Bello
Whitlock
Houck
Crawford
Winchowski

Short term a lot of this isn't working out currently and perhaps some of these guys may not be a fit long term but I still think it's a good solid core with the mL's looking good (despite Pete's bullshit) to fill in the missing spots and developing some of those struggling recently graduated young players. This season is growing pains to me. It's frustrating but I'm still excited about that core and see the flexibility that he's created for Henry's wallet (hopefully) to add through trade or FA signing to upgrade the places that need it.
I don't see a team with no hope and no future. I see a young core struggling that needs patience and time. I also see a manager that is feeling pressure and isn't responding well to the fanbase's need to scream and cry and making poor decisions in play and appears to be letting the frustrations of the players run amok.
I believe Henry wanted Bloom to install a long term plan that would have some problematic years in between but he clearly needs something to show for it in '24 and '25. I can guaran-fucking-tee that if Mayer is called up as starting SS for '24 and struggles like the Yankees promising SS has that there'll be a million calls to send him back down and screams for Bloom's firing. The right call (which it appears the Yankees are doing) is to be patient and try not to let the frustrations overwhelm short term decision making (either in game or personnel roster decisions).

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I guess we disagree on whether that core excites me. Other than DEvers, I don't see any Silver Slugger winners there, and I really don't see any consistent all-stars, except maybe Bello and Masa, who is not young.

Papo The Snow Tiger said:

There's an old adage, the first law of holes, which states "If you find yourself in a hole, stop digging". The Red Sox are in a hole that Bloom created, and I wouldn't shed a tear if your hypothetical scenario came true.
As to what comes next, the second law of holes applies; "when you stop digging, you're still in a hole". There's no quick, easy fix that will suddenly turn the Red Sox into a contender. I can't give a name for the next person in charge, but the immediate goal on the major league level should be at least having a fundamentally sound major league roster. No more acquiring players and hoping they can play a different position. No more acquiring injured players on the cheap and hoping they somehow get healthy fast. Also, if you have a player who can solidify a position for a long time to come don't be afraid to make a long-term commitment. Yes, there's a risk involved in signing a guy for a long time, but there's also something to be said for having players to build around. As for the minor leagues I'd look long and hard at the player development philosophy. When Theo Epstein was running the show there was a commitment to helping each and every player, no matter what level of prospect, to become the best baseball player he possibly be. Is this still true? Mookie Betts wasn't a highly regarded prospect when he first signed and came very close to quitting baseball. But a couple of years into his career something clicked, and we all know the rest of the story.

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The bolded is where I think you'll lose a lot of people. Pretending that this hole is all on Bloom is either willful ignorance or embellishment to make a point*, neither of which are conducive to have a productive conversation. I think what @Smiling Joe Hesketh said above is spot on, "If this is threading the needle through a rebuild then it's simply not working." The rebuild itself is not working due to (in no specific order) A. Ownership clearly telling Bloom to spend less B. Bloom not hitting on enough of his fringe FA signings...but as discussed above even when having a deeper pocket for FA signings it's no guarantee of success. That said, IMO Bloom has little or nothing to do with them being in a position to rebuild in the first place. It's been discussed ad nauseam so I am not going to belabor that point, but the team Bloom took over was not in a position to have sustained success at the Major, or Minor League level.
My personal take on how long Bloom will/should last: I said at the outset of this season (I think on a family group chat, if not here) that I'd want Bloom fired after 2023 if they failed at both the major league level AND the prospect pool didn't progress. I guess YMMV but I am overall pleased with the latter as of now. If that continues, I'd give him another year to see if that success can start translating in Boston.

*As much as I disagree with your stance on the hole being a Bloom creation, I can't thank you enough for bringing this adage about holes to my attention. I'd never heard it before and it's f*cking amazing.

TomRicardo said:

Did you take a moment and reread what you wrote? Are you honestly saying there was no path for Bloom to make this team great? Are you saying you would not want to have Mookie because we have at best league average Wong?

Are you Bloom's mother? I can't possibly see another reason someone would write something like this.

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I read what I wrote, but you clearly didn't. The team in 2019 had a bad farm system and the "great young core" at the major league level is all kind of bad today outside of Mookie and Devers. If you spent big to keep the band together, the team would still be bad. If you let everyone go, like they did with everyone but Devers, they're still bad because the farm is bad. The free agents that were available between then and now have also been kind of bad. Maybe a better GM could have worked some trades or managed to bat 1.000 on FA signings, but I think the team was doomed in 2019 and was going to be meh in 2023 no matter what.

Merkle's Boner said:

I guess we disagree on whether that core excites me. Other than DEvers, I don't see any Silver Slugger winners there, and I really don't see any consistent all-stars, except maybe Bello and Masa, who is not young.

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Agree completely. That “core” is nothing special. It’s, at best, a whole lot of league average with a couple above average possibilities. They’re not winning a title with that core.

*edit* Plus, there are a lot of 27 year olds in that core. They really should be performing at a strong MLB level right now. Most are not. At a certain point I wonder just how much more growth we can expect.

It’s the same conversation we’ve been having for the past few years. Anyone paying attention will recognize that the Sox are in the middle of a rebuild-on-the-fly-but-don’t-admit-we’re-rebuilding rebuild. They refuse to tear it down because Sox fans will not accept that or because ownership will not accept that or because both of these things. So Bloom’s strategy is to put together fairly high variance big league rosters—with very few long term contracts—that I suspect would model out at .500-ish 50 percent of the time, playoffs 25 percent of the time, and flaming out 25 percent of the time. Unfortunately, he’s attempting to do this in what appears to be one of the best divisions in baseball history.

The argument over Bloom, then, really boils down to how posters feel about the above plan.

If you hate it, then you see the current major league roster, which is obviously flawed, as a reflection of Bloom’s incompetence. “How can this guy not see these flaws! Why aren’t they spending more? Why these short term contracts on flawed big leaguers?”

If you’re on board with it, then you see the big league team as treading water, hoping a few things break right, while continuing the work of rebuilding the minor league system.

If anyone wants to critique Bloom’s rebuilding of the system, I think a worthwhile debate can be had. I remain a fan of his work there but I’m open to arguments that he should be doing better. But if your main problem with his work is that the major league team is flawed and hasn’t been a genuine contender since he arrived, well, from my perspective at least, you’re really just complaining about the fact that you don’t want the Sox to rebuild and believe they should just go all in every year. If critics can’t acknowledge that this stealth rebuild is happening, then it goes without saying that they’re going to look at the MLB record and see evidence of incompetence. I think that’s a ridiculous way to view what’s going on here.

8slim said:

Agree completely. That “core” is nothing special. It’s, at best, a whole lot of league average with a couple above average possibilities. They’re not winning a title with that core.

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Agreed, but I think most "Bloom apologists" see the real title contending window to be somewhere like 2025-2030, with some of the core mentioned above in addition with a few of their current top prospects flourishing in the majors as well, right?

jezza1918 said:

Agreed, but I think most "Bloom apologists" see the real title contending window to be somewhere like 2025-2030, with some of the core mentioned above in addition with a few of their current top prospects flourishing in the majors as well, right?

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For sure, I get it, and I don’t like the term “apologist” to be honest. It’s fine to support what Bloom’s doing.

Projecting ahead to 2026 and beyond seems wild to me though. Most of these vaunted prospects aren’t gonna be good enough. That’s not an indictment of Bloom, it’s just how baseball works. I mean, 4 years ago people figured Houck would be a top flight starter right now. Stuff happens.

jezza1918 said:

Agreed, but I think most "Bloom apologists" see the real title contending window to be somewhere like 2025-2030, with some of the core mentioned above in addition with a few of their current top prospects flourishing in the majors as well, right?

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My problem with this is that the odds are pretty overwhelming against the current AA being impact guys at MLB level. That’s just how MLB works. Every team has some equivalent to Rafaela, Yorke, etc. that they’re dreaming on. If Mayer isn’t the stud we all hope he is….then what?

8slim said:

For sure, I get it, and I don’t like the term “apologist” to be honest. It’s fine to support what Bloom’s doing.

Projecting ahead to 2026 and beyond seems wild to me though. Most of these vaunted prospects aren’t gonna be good enough. That’s not an indictment of Bloom, it’s just how baseball works. I mean, 4 years ago people figured Houck would be a top flight starter right now. Stuff happens.

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Ha I was using it in jest a bit, as I am one of them. And maybe I projected too far ahead, but I agree most of these prospects wont be good enough...but that's a pretty big reason why they brought Bloom in right? To build the farm system with both top end talent and some depth. Just to use Mayer and Yorke as an example - if we just had one of them I'd be pretty excited, but also that excitement would be quite tempered given the flameout rate. With two though I have more faith that ONE of them will be a solid contributor in the majors soon.

BigSoxFan said:

My problem with this is that the odds are pretty overwhelming against the current AA being impact guys at MLB level. That’s just how MLB works. Every team has some equivalent to Rafaela, Yorke, etc. that they’re dreaming on. If Mayer isn’t the stud we all hope he is….then what?

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Then Bloom gets fired and rightfully so because he will have failed at what I think was the primary reason he was brought on. Or, maybe 'primary' isnt the right word...but I just think it was his first order of business, so to speak.

BigSoxFan said:

My problem with this is that the odds are pretty overwhelming against the current AA being impact guys at MLB level. That’s just how MLB works. Every team has some equivalent to Rafaela, Yorke, etc. that they’re dreaming on. If Mayer isn’t the stud we all hope he is….then what?

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There is also, like, little to nothing in the way of pitching prospects.

soxhop411 said:

I bet my life savings that if the Mets and Sox had their offseason’s swapped and had the same record the mets have today. Pete would be complaining about reckless spending (just like the reporters in NY are doing right now)

Large payroll does not equal success

The mets (highest payroll in Mlb)
The padres (third highest)
Phillies ( 4th highest)
All have records below 500.

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In fairness, the other seven teams in the top ten (NYY, LAD, LAA, TOR, TEX, HOU, ATL - not in that order) all have winning records, as does #11 (SF, who I sort of see as Red Sox West). The next three teams ahead of Boston on the payroll list are all messes, though (COL and the two Chicago teams).

jezza1918 said:

*As much as I disagree with your stance on the hole being a Bloom creation, I can't thank you enough for bringing this adage about holes to my attention. I'd never heard it before and it's f*cking amazing.

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Agreed. Might deserve its own thread in P&G. Is rule number three profit?

A few people have asked or opined as to what he should have done to avoid this season going the way it has so far, but what about flipping the script: let's say they finish last, again, and net another great draft pick to add to Mayer and the previous installments working their way up.

If they do and he is able to spin the roster into a third-place team next season by making some in-season and off-season deals, with the threat to become a real powerhouse in the next couple seasons thereafter, do we judge him better?

It seems to be a time-honored strategy that has yielded multiple titles in the last 30 years for several franchises, including two of their chief rivals (Yankees and Astros), and the same strategy that kept his former franchise in the hunt year after year, the end result being a couple deep postseason runs, with a title seemingly not far off if things continue to break right. Wasn't that what was celebrated coming into his tenure here? Maybe there was a belief that they were much closer than they appeared in 2021, but mostly everyone agrees that the team that fell two wins shy of a World Series berth was probably a mirage, one that may have actually set back the rebuild by a season or two (simply due to resultant draft position).

I'm not saying I believe all that or that's what is going to happen, but it seems more likely than not given history and his pedigree. But it's like Tom Petty said.

All kinds of promising developments are happening on the big league roster right now, but they are not yet translating to wins. Because the Sox are not built to win right now. Bello, Casas, Wong, Crawford, and Winckowski are all, at minimum, holding their own in the major leagues. At minimum. More good young players will join them in the next two to three years. The Sox are managing their payroll in a way that will allow them to spend on stars to support these young players and the current stars Devers and Yoshida. But the Sox are not winning right now so these developments are not getting the attention right now. But if things continue to go to plan, and I suppose we shall see if they do, they are precisely the things that people will look back on as having been early indicators of coming success.

Mueller's Twin Grannies said:

Agreed. Might deserve its own thread in P&G. Is rule number three profit?

A few people have asked or opined as to what he should have done to avoid this season going the way it has so far, but what about flipping the script: let's say they finish last, again, and net another great draft pick to add to Mayer and the previous installments working their way up.

If they do and he is able to spin the roster into a third-place team next season by making some in-season and off-season deals, with the threat to become a real powerhouse in the next couple seasons thereafter, do we judge him better?

It seems to be a time-honored strategy that has yielded multiple titles in the last 30 years for several franchises, including two of their chief rivals (Yankees and Astros), and the same strategy that kept his former franchise in the hunt year after year, the end result being a couple deep postseason runs, with a title seemingly not far off if things continue to break right. Wasn't that what was celebrated coming into his tenure here? Maybe there was a belief that they were much closer than they appeared in 2021, but mostly everyone agrees that the team that fell two wins shy of a World Series berth was probably a mirage, one that may have actually set back the rebuild by a season or two (simply due to resultant draft position).

I'm not saying I believe all that or that's what is going to happen, but it seems more likely than not given history and his pedigree. But it's like Tom Petty said.

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Not sure why you include the Yankees with the Astros. The Yankees have not had one season as bad as a number of the Sox recent seasons. They are the example I always think of in that, it seems to me, last place is simply unacceptable to them. It seems to have become far too acceptable around here.

BringBackMo said:

It’s the same conversation we’ve been having for the past few years. Anyone paying attention will recognize that the Sox are in the middle of a rebuild-on-the-fly-but-don’t-admit-we’re-rebuilding rebuild. They refuse to tear it down because Sox fans will not accept that or because ownership will not accept that or because both of these things. So Bloom’s strategy is to put together fairly high variance big league rosters—with very few long term contracts—that I suspect would model out at .500-ish 50 percent of the time, playoffs 25 percent of the time, and flaming out 25 percent of the time. Unfortunately, he’s attempting to do this in what appears to be one of the best divisions in baseball history.

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I appreciate your post, but disagree with the bolded part. Most fans in this area can accept accept rebuilds; the ones who can't are the ones who think the Sox should have signed Verlander/de Grom/X/Judge this offseason and traded a couple minor leaguers for Trout and Ohtani - in other words, unrealistic anyway. I can appreciate discounting that part of the fanbase, but I think that is a small portion of it. Where I struggle with Bloom is that if you're going to have a fallow period in a big market, you need to use that time to get under the cap, as well as acquire and develop assets. No one is going to care about 2022 and 2023 if this team is good in 2025 like the Bloom people believe. But I just don't see that trajectory happening with the team as currently constructed because Bloom didn't fix the cap problem last season when he could have, seems to prefer acquiring average prospects in quantity and can't seem to consistently develop pitching prospects (I like the current crop well enough, but I don't think any of them are future aces - obviously this is open to a ton of debate).

Petagine in a Bottle said:

Well, in an ideal world, they would have found a way to move guys like Bogaerts (no trade, I know), Eovaldi, Wacha, JD (he was cooked, nobody wanted him!) Strahm, Renfroe (being under the cap last year might have been a good idea) etc. like they did with Vazquez. Of course it takes two to tango, and they were so bare in AAA (as they are now) that the last few months of the season would have had a lot of low level replacement players playing out the string, which may not have been a good look.

But yeah, team building is hard. Especially when you are trying to turn over half the roster each year via short term FA signings.

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I totally agree with this. Bloom was oddly timid at the trade deadlines in 2021 and 2022; not aggressive enough to improve a team that could win a title in 2021, and not fully committing to selling in 2022 while failing to get under the LT. If, as many posters have rightly said, the only way back into contention is to rebuild the farm, then go ahead - rebuild the farm! I'd rather a couple of really bad seasons as prospects are accumulated, then a slightly sub .500 major league team and an organization that hedges for half a dozen years (or more).

When Bloom is criticized, his defenders often will say that "he was way more information than we do." Certainly so. Given that, we are relying on him to identify the right talent. To make the best bets in drafts, trades, and FA signings. No one's gonna get 'em all right, but clearly the better team builders have a higher average. What would we say Bloom's average has been to this point?

FWIW, I had the team pegged at 79-83 I think (or some similar) so I kind of assumed they'd be exactly where they are.

One thing I really like and give Bloom credit for is that 60% of the time, the team is worth watching and interesting - which are the days that Bello, Whitlock and Houck start. They're trying to build a core and find out if the young players are part of that. This is good. I want Houck taking the ball every 5 days the rest of the season, and I credit Bloom (and Cora) for sticking with that and not just saying "he's bullpen arm" (even if that's where he ends up). FWIW, of the guys I wanted the Sox to sign this year one is an ever so slightly above average SP in the AL East (Bassitt, which would have made him our 3rd best starter to date), one has been terrible in the NL Central (Tallion). After that, I personally wanted Eovladi back - but would not have given him Texas' deal, and I wanted Wacha back (but just like I think Xander would be hitting a lot better in the AL East parks, I also think Wacha would have been pitching a lot worse in the AL East parks).

I also like that Casas has been playing every day, and I think this needs to continue. Let him take his lumps now. Platooning him with Turner or Dalbec or whomever does nothing for the 2025+ Red Sox other than possibly hurt them (this is another story, but I'd like to see more of the kids up here in a lost season). I'm not a fan of Durran losing at bats to Duvall nor Valdez losing them to whomever while he gains nothing continuing to be an above average hitter in AAA and since he was "better" in the bigs (wRC+ of 82) than guys like Hernandez (76), and Arroyo (75) and while technically a bit worse than Reyes (84), I'd rather see what happens with the 24 year old than the 29 year old.

I'm not going to go down the road of if I think Bloom should still be the head of baseball ops or not, just that I hope as the season goes on that he a) sells any veteran on a short term deal he can get literally any prospect for - I'd be trying my hardest to move (in this order) Paxton, Turner, Duvall, Martin, Hernandez (not that I think you'd get anything for him) and Sale (again, not that I think you'd get anything for him, but if someone out there would, I'd do it). I'd also have tried dealing Refsnyder, but I can't imagine he'd be dealt after they just gave him an extension.

Also, wouldn't hate the idea of seeing if you can find a reasonable extension for Verdugo. If he won't entertain that at reasonable dollars, I'd move him too, but again, my priority would be to extend him first.

In my opinion, those above players cannot be dealt soon enough.

BringBackMo said:

It’s the same conversation we’ve been having for the past few years. Anyone paying attention will recognize that the Sox are in the middle of a rebuild-on-the-fly-but-don’t-admit-we’re-rebuilding rebuild. They refuse to tear it down because Sox fans will not accept that or because ownership will not accept that or because both of these things. So Bloom’s strategy is to put together fairly high variance big league rosters—with very few long term contracts—that I suspect would model out at .500-ish 50 percent of the time, playoffs 25 percent of the time, and flaming out 25 percent of the time. Unfortunately, he’s attempting to do this in what appears to be one of the best divisions in baseball history.

The argument over Bloom, then, really boils down to how posters feel about the above plan.

If you hate it, then you see the current major league roster, which is obviously flawed, as a reflection of Bloom’s incompetence. “How can this guy not see these flaws! Why aren’t they spending more? Why these short term contracts on flawed big leaguers?”

If you’re on board with it, then you see the big league team as treading water, hoping a few things break right, while continuing the work of rebuilding the minor league system.

If anyone wants to critique Bloom’s rebuilding of the system, I think a worthwhile debate can be had. I remain a fan of his work there but I’m open to arguments that he should be doing better. But if your main problem with his work is that the major league team is flawed and hasn’t been a genuine contender since he arrived, well, from my perspective at least, you’re really just complaining about the fact that you don’t want the Sox to rebuild and believe they should just go all in every year. If critics can’t acknowledge that this stealth rebuild is happening, then it goes without saying that they’re going to look at the MLB record and see evidence of incompetence. I think that’s a ridiculous way to view what’s going on here.

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I never quite follow the “fans in Boston will never accept a rebuild” whether it’s the Sox, Patriots, whoever. The Sox have finished last 3 of 4 years. It couldn’t have been much worse. If they were trying to remain competitive while building long term stability, they have failed miserably.

Are the team’s fans, money, and facilities holding them back from building a competitive team? If only we were the Kansas City Royals…then we could really commit to building a winner!

John Marzano Olympic Hero said:

Let me ask a simple question to the Bloom backers, are you enjoying this season? How about last season?

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No, I am not enjoying it. However, I think it is a natural consequence of an unproductive farm system. Are Padres and Mets and Phillies fans enjoying this season? Would you rather be blah with few long term obligations or blah with many long term obligations?

Merkle's Boner said:

Not sure why you include the Yankees with the Astros. The Yankees have not had one season as bad as a number of the Sox recent seasons. They are the example I always think of in that, it seems to me, last place is simply unacceptable to them. It seems to have become far too acceptable around here.

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They won three titles in four years within the last 30 years, that's why.

BringBackMo said:

It’s the same conversation we’ve been having for the past few years. Anyone paying attention will recognize that the Sox are in the middle of a rebuild-on-the-fly-but-don’t-admit-we’re-rebuilding rebuild. They refuse to tear it down because Sox fans will not accept that or because ownership will not accept that or because both of these things. So Bloom’s strategy is to put together fairly high variance big league rosters—with very few long term contracts—that I suspect would model out at .500-ish 50 percent of the time, playoffs 25 percent of the time, and flaming out 25 percent of the time. Unfortunately, he’s attempting to do this in what appears to be one of the best divisions in baseball history.

The argument over Bloom, then, really boils down to how posters feel about the above plan.

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I think this is about right. The irony being that, as opposed to "not caring about winning," ownership doesn't want a 65-win team to help them rebuild faster.