What do people think the over under is -
- Sox Wins
- Sale Innings
- Paxton Starts
- Bello Wins
- Casas HR
Interesting questions, many are impossible to answer. I refuse to believe a) the front office does not want to win and b) also refuse to believe they think a line up of McGuire, Casas, Story, Devers, Arroyo, Yoshida, Hernandez, Verdugo and Hosmer with a rotation of Pivetta, Whitlock, Bello, Houck and whatever we get from Sale and Paxton is a “playoff caliber” team or anything close to it. There has to be a lot more coming. Has to be. I think the FO can make mistakes, I don’t think they’re ignorant. Big difference.
However based on the additions that I “think are realistic for this current front office“ in addition to what we have presently as of 12/9…
1) 78-84 record. (We’re “worse“ than we were, I think our talent will be less than ending 2022, but we’ll also have fewer AL East games with the schedule change. Similar record, still a last place in the division team, but a shot at finishing ahead of Baltimore).
2) 45ip for Sale - and I take the under.
3) I’m going to say 5 starts for Paxton; a chance he makes 10 starts but is horrible to the tune of a 5.00ERA but he starts because someone literally has to start a game.
4) Wins are a function of the team around him. But I think Bello starts 24+ games, has 140ip+ and an FIP below 3.50
5) 30hr with an OPS+ above 115
To be clear, I HOPE we do much more this off-season. I think we have the money TO do much more. Seeing as to how we’ve already “lost” Bogaerts, and lost the ability to add Abreu, Tallion, Rizzo, Bell, Verlander and Walker (I think these were realistic targets, I don’t think Judge, Turner, deGrom or Contreras were ever seriously in play), I don’t see enough realistic targets to improve the record or more importantly our standing in the AL East that much. Unless there are drastic and unforeseen additions.
If we extend Devers, add Correa, Bassitt and Senga (or similar) and trade for Bryan Reynolds I’ll a) happily yell that I was wrong and bow to Bloom‘s foresight and b) drastically change my record prediction and feel really good about the next 5 or so seasons.
If we just add something like Turner, Segura, Eovaldi and Wacha, then 75-87 remains my pick. Maybe we get to .500 if Whitlock, Bello, Houck and Casas are better than I think, but that is the ceiling for that “type” of team in the AL East, in my opinion.