1. KC (9-2): at Cin, at Den, at Hou, vs Sea, vs Den, at LV - should go 6-0 in those games and finish at 15-2. Maybe lose at Cin but that's probably it.
2. Mia (8-3): at SF, at LAC, at Buf, vs GB, at NE, vs NYJ - very tough schedule...I think they could go 2-4 to finish at 10-7. Call it 11-6 though.
3. Ten (7-4): at Phi, vs Jax, at LAC, vs Hou, vs Dal, at Jax - not easy, but should win 10 games and win the division. Even 9-8 likely wins the division.
4. Bal (7-4): vs Den, at Pit, at Cle, vs Atl, vs Pit, at Cin - pretty soft schedule, should get to 11 or 12 wins and win the division.
5. Buf (8-3): at NE, vs NYJ, vs Mia, at Chi, at Cin, vs NE - depends on how good NE really is, but I see But finishing with 11-12 wins. Game vs Mia is huge.
6. Cin (7-4): vs KC, vs Cle, at TB, at NE, vs Buf, vs Bal - brutal schedule; I could see them finishing at 9-8, 10-7 max.
7. NYJ (7-4): at Min, at Buf, vs Det, vs Jax, at Sea, at Mia - challenging schedule, figure they go 3-3 and end up at 10-7.
8. NE (6-5): vs Buf, at Ari, at LV, vs Cin, vs Mia, at Buf - very tough schedule, probably will win only 2 more games but will have to find a way to win 3 at least to have a chance. 4 might be necessary. The games at Ari and LV - the most winnable games on the schedule - are must-wins.
9. LAC (6-5): at LV, vs Mia, vs Ten, at Ind, vs LAR, at Den - manageable, but not a cakewalk at all. Probably goes 3-3, maybe 4-2 to get to 10-7 at best.
So the way I look at it, it'll finish:
AFCE: Buf 12-5
AFCS: Ten 10-7
AFCN: Bal 12-5
AFCW: KC 14-3
WC1: Mia 11-6
Then it's a mess. NYJ at 10-7, LAC at 10-7, Cin at 10-7 or 9-8. NE would need to get to 10-7. If they get there, if one of those wins is against Cincy, then they'd hold the tiebreaker over both the Jets and Cincy, which could be huge.
So the Pats HAVE to go 4-2 over these last 6 games, in my opinion, with one of those wins being against the Bengals. Man, it's not going to be easy. It will at least be a season of meaningful football right up til the end, I think. Every week at this point feels like a playoff game.