I thought the jokes about small sample size and how Brady and Rodgers are worse than Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson would act as a foil.
Its two games into the NFL season. NFL teams aren't linearly stacked, and different schemes have heterogeneous effects on different QBs. Even if it was linearly strong, the small sample size of 17 games means much of one's record is determined by chance.
With that being said,
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/passing.htm
Even adjusted mterics need to account for rank as well. Mac Jones currently ranks 14th by adjusted metrics, showing that offenses are struggling across the board. I suspect the rank right now is more stable than the raw numbers, which is a little like saying that a kiln is colder than lava. I mean, we all know Jalen Hurts is better than the sixth ranked QB (8.01 ANY/A) and Lamar Jackson is obviously terrible and unworthy of his 9.9 ANY/A -- clearly fake stats
More seriously, I think everyone here would be surprised if Mac Jones performs like Tom Brady the rest of the season. I also think everyone would be surprised if Geno Smith continues to outperform Aaron Rodgers.
Mac has performed at a mediocre level, but we also don't know enough to see whether he can adjust.
Its two games into the NFL season. NFL teams aren't linearly stacked, and different schemes have heterogeneous effects on different QBs. Even if it was linearly strong, the small sample size of 17 games means much of one's record is determined by chance.
With that being said,
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/passing.htm
Even adjusted mterics need to account for rank as well. Mac Jones currently ranks 14th by adjusted metrics, showing that offenses are struggling across the board. I suspect the rank right now is more stable than the raw numbers, which is a little like saying that a kiln is colder than lava. I mean, we all know Jalen Hurts is better than the sixth ranked QB (8.01 ANY/A) and Lamar Jackson is obviously terrible and unworthy of his 9.9 ANY/A -- clearly fake stats
More seriously, I think everyone here would be surprised if Mac Jones performs like Tom Brady the rest of the season. I also think everyone would be surprised if Geno Smith continues to outperform Aaron Rodgers.
Mac has performed at a mediocre level, but we also don't know enough to see whether he can adjust.
This is where I'm at. Unfortunately, QB aging may be flatter than most think (though this analysis should be redone for 2022), the problem is that year-to-year variance due to roster/coaching changes may obscure the flat trend, and as noted in the thread, Mac's training as a QB has undergone significant changes.Brees is a pretty atypical career path. Most guys who suck for two years suck forever. The hard part is that most QBs don't really improve after two years, but almost all the relevant ones do. It's tough to know how much rope to give a guy with the hope he'll get better.
There are a few different discussions going on here I think:
1) It's too early to tell what Mac's future trajectory looks like. Progress is not necessarily linear.
2) The supporting talent (both on O and the defense) is probably worse than in 2021, having lost Shaq Mason and JC Jackson and without really any major adds, I guess with the exception of Parker. Building on last year will require growth from holdover players, especially Mac. So far, we're not getting it.
It's too soon to be pessimistic about Mac's future. It's probably a little too soon to be pessimistic about the offense in 2022, but it's fair to be concerned, especially after the preseason reports weren't exactly glowing.
Same here. This year gives us an idea as to whether we need to draft another QB next season.I’m a Mac fan. I think he is a leader. I think he is tough. I think he is smart. I think he will be good to very good QB.
I thought he was below average yesterday though. The throw to Hunter Henry on the opening drive was just bad. He sailed one badly over the middle to Meyers, I believe. The pick was a bad read, the dropped pick a bad decision. Video above of Humphrey running free while Mac has time and just not seeing him.
Given the turnover on the line and coaching staff, as well as the very different game plan in week 2 vs 1, I’m definitely going to remain patient. It feels, right now, like they have almost too many different options on offense so they can’t quite figure out what they are good at / want to be good at / want to do. I am optimistic that things will be more clear for them after they have 4-5 games on tape, and I expect Mac to show good strides in October and November.
If he plays the next 15 games like he played the first two, I won’t be very optimistic about his future. While I’d still give him 2024 to prove himself - at least, a decent chunk of the season - the arrow would be pointing down for me.