We are tossing around several possibilities here for the pitching staff, so allow me to try my hand at a quick summary of the team's payroll flexibility:
The Sox' 2023 payroll is at about $116m using the Fangraphs summary of guaranteed contracts and payments. Then (by my estimation) add in about $6m for pre-arb guys, and maybe $25m for arb awards (assuming they keep everyone and don't rise much). Now you are at maybe $147m-- call it $150 to be conservative. LT threshold is $250m for next season. $100m to spend. So you can...
1. Sign Devers long term, his $12m arb goes up to... $30? [They could hit a bigger AAV number but not necessarily in year 1]
2. Extend Bogaerts, which bumps from $20m to maybe $32? That's a $30m net total increase in 2023 for the two cornerstone guys. Got $70m left.
3. If you give the QO to both Wacha and Eovaldi, then you are down to maybe $32m left. If you pick up Paxton's option, now you are down to $19m.
4. At this point you are saying bye to JDM and Hill, among regulars. You also haven't signed Strahm, who you either need to bring back or add him to the list of guys you still haven't replaced. So you have $19m to pick up another relatively important bat and a few more arms for the pen.
Choices:
* You could go for Rodón but at a minimum that precludes bringing back Paxton, which makes sense anyway. By swapping Paxton's $13m for Rodón at maybe $22m, you would have $10m left for everything else.
* You could reduce those two QO numbers by offering multi-year deals, so maybe 2x$17? (or 3 or 4 years...) -- anyway that adds in a couple mil for the 2023 LT. Now you have maybe $14m left to spend.
* If you want to get in on Judge, that means no Rodón, no Paxton, and at least one less QO. Subtracting Paxton and a QO puts you at $51m left to spend. You could sign Judge at maybe $40m? And then have around $10m for everything else you want to do.
* That is to say, for ~ the same $ you could have either Judge or Rodón + (one of Eo or Wacha)
The point is not to offer a comprehensive guide to the offseason, but just to get a quick sense of how much payroll flexibility they have. It's pretty substantial, and then the LT goes up to $270m and $290m in years when the Sox' present commitments will drop another $20m(ish) for each year. Maybe Henry won't spend to the LT, but if they wanted to, they could add Judge and Rodón, extend Bogey and Devers, and keep nearly all of the players they care about, with just a bit of creativity, and stay under the LT every year. Or they could give the QO to both Eovaldi and Wacha, sign either Judge or Rodón, and sail on. They could even sign Judge and Rodón, give both QOs, extend Bogey and Devers, etc. -- full GFIN mode -- and probably pay a tax in just 2023, then be below it for a few years after.