I’d disagree on pretty much all of this. For the Porter Jr. comps (both of them) those aren’t terrible comps in terms of career trajectory.
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The problem for the Knicks is (1) getting Otto Porter Jr. on a near max is a bad outcome; and (2) both Porter Jr.’s had progressed to a significantly higher level of actual performance before they signed big money deals.
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Barrett isn’t a guy you lock up early on a near max, he’s a guy you let go into RFA. The worst thing, if you want to keep him, is that he gets someone to commit an actual max contract and you match for not too much more. The discount here just isn’t close to big enough to justify the risk the Knicks are taking on and they also should understand (but don’t) that they aren’t in a roster building phase where overpaying to lock up good players makes sense (assuming RJ Barrett profiles to develop into a good player, which is a fair assumption). In other words, they aren’t Denver.
The Knicks could get lucky here, but I wouldn’t count on it. Plus, it’s the Knicks so they deserve no benefit of the doubt in terms of scouting/projection. They are a mediocre team largely locked into continuing to be mediocre.