The possibility of Jay Groome for Hosmer came through.
I'm curious about the assumption that Hosmer has no upside. He's always had a high ground ball rate, but he put together good (not great) power numbers as recently as 2020 (granted, only 150ish plate appearances). Not sure what happened to those improved fly ball and line drive rates, but, based on the flyball overlay on Fenway posted earlier, I think Hosmer could put up good numbers over the next few months and, if the shift goes away, he could be an asset next year as well.
Semi-related, who predicted Rizzo, who is a few months older than Hosmer, would be putting up career power numbers this year (he has 27 dongs already with a career best of 32 for a year)? I think the move the Yankee Stadium is a big part of that story. While Hosmer won't approach those power numbers, I think the move to Fenway will make him more productive than he was in San Diego earlier this year.
To some degree, yes I think this should help.
Here’s a quick and dirty sketch. Since 2020 per Statcast, Hosmer has hit 17 fly balls to the opposite field that traveled at least 310 ft. but were recorded for outs, which is roughly two full seasons.
So if everything stays the same about his batted ball profile, let’s say the Monster would have changed those 17 outs to doubles or home runs — but only half of them to account for home games. Let’s add nine XBH — five doubles and four home runs — to his batting line over the last two years.
Actual batting line ‘20-22: .272/.336/.410
Monster-aided batting line: .281/.346/.437
Over that time, he’s only hit one home run to right field that traveled less than 380 ft. (the distance of Fenway’s right field fence, so possibly an out in Boston). Let’s just give it to him.
My pessimism about Hosmer is pretty much entirely tied to his ground ball rate. He was pretty
resistant to criticism about it early in his career, but there’s
evidence he changed his swing in 2020 to hit fewer ground balls. But maybe he changed back? If there’s anyone who could help restore some of the gains he had in 2020, it’s J.D. Martinez.