I'm not too worried about it in a game with a 20-25 point lead.Thanks. Do you think this held up in Game 1? Or the 3rd quarter of Game 2?
I'm not too worried about it in a game with a 20-25 point lead.Thanks. Do you think this held up in Game 1? Or the 3rd quarter of Game 2?
This Celtics team absolutely could win the title this year, but they don't HAVE to win the title this year. Because this young core played big playoff games so early in their career, it can kind of give off the impression that the window is starting to wane with this core, but realistically the window has just begun, at least looking at our best players. Tatum is probably scraping close to his ceiling as an NBA player, but think about how much better guys like Durant and LeBron were in their late-20s than when they were 23/24. Jaylen Brown has improved every single season.The JAYs should continue to get better as they age, especially Tatum as he adds more muscle to his learning machine approach.
TL, Grant, PP will continue to improve as they earn minutes, fine-tune their roles and be better versions of themselves.
Horford can probably give them another 2yrs of quality role play, which he is basically what he is now... a role player. He's a long, switchy defense-first 4. This isn't to diminish what Al does, just that the C's can develop/find someone (plus a combo of Grant/Tatum/TL improvement) that will lessen Horford exit pain.
The 4-5yr run has started a year early and that credit needs to go to IME/Brad IMO
The long history of the Grant WIlliams/ Bam Adebayo rivarly might also help.To pile on, what is happening with Bam? I get that the Celtics are a tough matchup for him on offense, and that explains a bit of why he's gone from a 19 PPG scorer in the regular season to what he's doing now. But Miami used to be so dynamic running their offense through him, having him bring the ball up the floor, and basically using him like Draymond. Now, he barely touches the ball on offense, and the Miami offense is so much more predictable as a result. Oladipo or Vincent bring the ball up the floor and initiate the offense, and Butler is their only reliable scorer, only he can't really shoot from three.
This isn't just about this series; he's gone from averaging over 5 assists a game the past two seasons to 3.4 this year. Is it the Kyle Lowry affect? And if so, why are they still playing that way with Lowry out?
I have so much respect for Spo that I can't help but think it's a physical thing with Bam rather than a tactical thing.
This is probably going to be one of their best chances to win a title, though. It's right there. There's no juggernaut in the way.This Celtics team absolutely could win the title this year, but they don't HAVE to win the title this year. Because this young core played big playoff games so early in their career, it can kind of give off the impression that the window is starting to wane with this core, but realistically the window has just begun, at least looking at our best players. Tatum is probably scraping close to his ceiling as an NBA player, but think about how much better guys like Durant and LeBron were in their late-20s than when they were 23/24. Jaylen Brown has improved every single season.
TL has underrated ball skills and we really don't know just how much he can eventually contribute on offense. He's still a promising raw player on that end of the floor, while still being able to contribute with his rolling and offensive rebounding. Smart has improved so much as decision maker, although I imagine he is probably close to his ceiling as a player at the moment (which is a damn good one). The fact that all four of those guys are locked up for the time being; three of the four on below-market rate contracts for what they would get now (Tatum is a max guy regardless) is a massive win for the front office.
In regards to Al, I've said before that I don't like the idea of paying for a center unless it is an Jokic/Embiid class of player. It seems like there are so many relatively cheap and fungible centers around that you can use when your team is going to live or die on the success of its perimeter players. For Horford, he has earned every single cent of his $27 million this season.
I mean this is true because they are 3 wins away from the Finals / 7 wins away from the title, but who is realistically going to have a better chance in the next 5 years?This is probably going to be one of their best chances to win a title, though. It's right there. There's no juggernaut in the way.
I feel it’s pretty accurate. Miami cannot create offensively against our defense with Smart in the game to prevent “G1 Jimmy” from getting to the rim at will. For them to win a game against us at full strength they will need one of those 9 three-pointer games from Strus, Duncan, or Vincent. The Heat are a real good team but NBA PLayoffs are about matchups and we are a nightmare for them on one end while they don’t have answers for us on the other.538 had the Celts at 70% to win the series coming in; 61% after the game 1 loss; and now 81% after the game 2 win. Currently at 68% to win the title which is insane.
Carpe Diem. Al is a huge part of their success right now, and I think the likelihood that he is playing at the same level even next year is low. Also, as everyone knows in sports, it's all about injuries. The law of averages would say that one of the Celtics core will have a major injury over the next few years. That stuff just happens.This is probably going to be one of their best chances to win a title, though. It's right there. There's no juggernaut in the way.
The NBA is a league full of turnover. Philly could look completely different in 2022/23. Dallas could acquire a legit 2nd star. Memphis is definitely on the up, too.I mean this is true because they are 3 wins away from the Finals / 7 wins away from the title, but who is realistically going to have a better chance in the next 5 years?
Philly has major issues
Brooklyn has major issues
Milwaukee has Giannis but Middleton turns 31 this summer and the rest of their roster is meh
Miami the Celts are already better than, and are old
Phoenix is a pretender and CP3 is old
Dallas has Luka but is otherwise meh
Golden State still has a nice core and tons of experience but is getting old (Curry is 34, Dray and Klay are 32)
There is real potential here for multiple Finals appearances and banners over the next five years.
TLs ball skills are really underrated. For a guy with limited offensive skills, the fact that he almost never gums up the offense is pretty remarkable., even though they dont shy away from giving him the ball up high or on the weave.TL has underrated ball skills and we really don't know just how much he can eventually contribute on offense. He's still a promising raw player on that end of the floor, while still being able to contribute with his rolling and offensive rebounding. Smart has improved so much as decision maker, although I imagine he is probably close to his ceiling as a player at the moment (which is a damn good one). The fact that all four of those guys are locked up for the time being; three of the four on below-market rate contracts for what they would get now (Tatum is a max guy regardless) is a massive win for the front office.
Yeah, please let's not start thinking that this is going to be the norm going forward. The same attitude has felled OKC and many other "young teams" who were always looking at the two birds in the bush instead of the one in hand. Injuries, free agency, other teams young players exploding will get in the way more often than not (look at Milwaukee with Middleton this year, or Brooklyn with Kyrie and Harden last year). This is the opportunity, right now, and neither fans nor the team should expect that this is going to happen again. Tatum is great - he is not Jordan or Lebron.This is probably going to be one of their best chances to win a title, though. It's right there. There's no juggernaut in the way.
Yet.Yeah, please let's not start thinking that this is going to be the norm going forward. The same attitude has felled OKC and many other "young teams" who were always looking at the two birds in the bush instead of the one in hand. Injuries, free agency, other teams young players exploding will get in the way more often than not (look at Milwaukee with Middleton this year, or Brooklyn with Kyrie and Harden last year). This is the opportunity, right now, and neither fans nor the team should expect that this is going to happen again. Tatum is great - he is not Jordan or Lebron.
Agree with most of your assessments except for the bolded.Tatum is probably scraping close to his ceiling as an NBA player, but think about how much better guys like Durant and LeBron were in their late-20s than when they were 23/24. Jaylen Brown has improved every single season.
I don't think we are disagreeing; it's more of just the perspective on how we see the distance between Tatum today and Tatum in a few seasons if it all goes well. Let's say Tatum's ceiling is like, prime Kevin Durant. I'd argue that he is like, 90% there at the moment; and while he is likely to certainly improve over the next few seasons, we can already envision what the best version of Tatum looks like (as opposed to say, TimeLord who is still a bit of a mystery).Agree with most of your assessments except for the bolded.
A more mature/stronger Tatum improves a lot on both sides of the floor, a 40% 3pt shooter ups his gravity/TS% & a better distributor makes those around him better when he's doubled. Most importantly Tatum has a great infrastructure, off-season work ethic, and desire to be the best. Not every great player (ie Shaq) can say that, he's very focused
The C's are very levered to Tatum and he will continue to have the greatest impact on winning%.
Is it? TL is 5 months older than Jayson Tatum. I'd guess it's incremental growth from here on out.I don't think we are disagreeing; it's more of just the perspective on how we see the distance between Tatum today and Tatum in a few seasons if it all goes well. Let's say Tatum's ceiling is like, prime Kevin Durant. I'd argue that he is like, 90% there at the moment; and while he is likely to certainly improve over the next few seasons, we can already envision what the best version of Tatum looks like (as opposed to say, TimeLord who is still a bit of a mystery).
The most attention Robinson and Oladipo create in 2022 is every Celtics player salivating the second they step on the court.I agree--Vincent isn't bad at all. But he also doesn't create any gravity- he's scoring because he's getting it after several rotations. What I observe is Miami needs more guys who demand attention, and they simply don't have enough of them. So they only have three ways to manufacture that pressure----Bam playing better and more actively on offense (possible but absent bad matchups I'm not sure he is that guy); Herro heating up (again, possible); and spreading the court more because Robinson/Strus are really hitting and forcing Celts to cover deep and create space for Herro/Bam/Butler and maybe Oladipo. I am not saying that'll work---not sure they can generate that shooting or that Celts adjustments will open up enough room, they just don't need to double against Miami--I'm saying that's the list Spo realistically can think through to try.
Strange, someone around here keeps telling us that Jaylen never shows up in big games.So far in the playoffs
Tatum 28/6/6 on a 59% TS.
Jaylen 23/7/4 on a 59% TS.
Smart 16/4/7 on a 54% TS.
Al 13/8/3 on a 67% TS.
Grant 11/4 on a 62% TS.
And that doesn’t even take the defense into account. Dudes are BRINGING it.
The Celtics struggle when teams are able to throw a wrench into the machinery. If I were Spoelstra, I'd be thinking about how to achieve that.
I think the Celtics struggle more than most when they get (or are gotten) off their game. I think they place high on the "No team that really truly is this fucking good should ever look so fucking terrible, but somehow they do" list. Usually when a team has big epic lapses it is because they aren't actually that good and their success is of the smoke-and-mirrors variety. That's not the Celtics - they are that good and it usually shows on the court.That first sentence likely applies to most teams, but as to your second sentence . . . I was interested (and perhaps a bit wary) of how this version of the Celtics would respond to the Miami zone that killed them in the bubble. Well, Miami pulled it out last night and the Celtics crushed it. Two plays of note I recall:
- one was where Al got the ball in the middle of the zone, pretty much right at the FT line, which is supposed to be the weak part of the zone. No Heat came to challenge him, all staying out on the perimeter shooters. So Al simply hit what was probably the closest thing to a free throw that one can have in the live action of a game.
- the other was where they swung the ball to Jaylen at the right break, but he caught it on the move and slashed right thru the zone like butter.
I would try full court pressure, since that worked for Milwaukee at times. Does Spoelstra have wrinkles to the zone? Can they fake blitz Tatum and recover to their guys? I don't know. Probably Lowry coming back and being immediately very good and Bam reverting more to his bubble self are the keys.Agree, but it's hard to find wrenches when
- Tatum is handling blitzes and extra shading with ease
- the zone has gotten annihilated
- the Heat don't have any offensive wrinkles left beyond "score even more, Jimmy"
Tatum, Brown, Smart, Grant, and Rob are better now than they were then. We have Horford now and didn't then. Kemba and Hayward played a lot of injury-limited minutes. We have White and Pritchard; they had Wanamaker.I am 100% convinced that this Celtics team would easily sweep the bubble Celtics with an absent Hayward and hobbling Kemba, and it wouldn't be particularly close either.
This series has shown some key areas where Rob can improve. When he gets that ball around the basket with a defender there, he needs to get up there strong and without getting his pocket picked. Obviously, even a good post player (Rob is more of a non-post player) will struggle if defended well, but Rob needs to be able to overpower guys who are just "there" as opposed to playing great D.TL has underrated ball skills and we really don't know just how much he can eventually contribute on offense. He's still a promising raw player on that end of the floor, while still being able to contribute with his rolling and offensive rebounding. Smart has improved so much as decision maker, although I imagine he is probably close to his ceiling as a player at the moment (which is a damn good one). The fact that all four of those guys are locked up for the time being; three of the four on below-market rate contracts for what they would get now (Tatum is a max guy regardless) is a massive win for the front office.
You can include Lowry on this list. He’s been awful recently and is a downgrade over Vincent at this point.The most attention Robinson and Oladipo create in 2022 is every Celtics player salivating the second they step on the court.
It’s hard to figure where Tatum will improve but the fact that he’s doing what he is at 24 should be scary to other NBA teams. With more muscle and body control with increased age he should get to the rim a lot more and hopefully start getting some of the calls he hasn’t so far. Should be fun to watch. With how good he and Jaylen are at times it’s hard to remember how young they really are.I don't think we are disagreeing; it's more of just the perspective on how we see the distance between Tatum today and Tatum in a few seasons if it all goes well. Let's say Tatum's ceiling is like, prime Kevin Durant. I'd argue that he is like, 90% there at the moment; and while he is likely to certainly improve over the next few seasons, we can already envision what the best version of Tatum looks like (as opposed to say, TimeLord who is still a bit of a mystery).
I think you start playing them those kind of minutes now and you’re asking for trouble.. There’s very little recovery between games so I feel like their legs would be gone by game five or six. I wonder if anyone has studied minutes and effects on stamina etc.. if it’s something you have to ramp up over time.In these playoffs, Butler is avergaging 37.3 minutes, Bam 32.2, and Herro 27.2. Lowry when playing was averaging 28.8.
Does Miami just need to step all those guy up to 38-40?
If you play Herro that much is he exposed as a poor defender (or at least one the Celtics can attack)?
I don't think you can look at their ages and compare that, they have very different development curves.Is it? TL is 5 months older than Jayson Tatum. I'd guess it's incremental growth from here on out.
Word.Strange, someone around here keeps telling us that Jaylen never shows up in big games.
Jaylen is very quietly having a great playoffs as a #2. Do I wish his handle were a little better? Sure. Do I wish he could better defend elite players like Giannis or Butler? I mean, of course I do. But overall this has been a continuation of how he and Tatum can work perfectly well together and how if Jaylen is the 5th best defender on the floor for your team, you have a really fucking good defense.Strange, someone around here keeps telling us that Jaylen never shows up in big games.
I think a while ago we saw more of what he could be.. they were using him in the high post for pick and rolls as well as giving him the ball to pass out of the post.. he’s a really good passer..or at least was in those scenarios. The hardest thing to predict for him is health..I don't think you can look at their ages and compare that, they have very different development curves.
Tatum has played 14,500 NBA minutes between the regular season and the playoffs; Rob has played 4,000 minutes. Tatum also came into the league as a way more polished player; Williams was very raw and needed quite a while to stay healthy and to reach a level where he could play consistently.
The best version of Tatum is really just a slightly better player than what we see right now; maybe he shoots a little better from three, maybe he gets to the line a little bit more, maybe he gets savvier as a playmaker and more intelligent as a defender; but he is already close to a finished product from a utilization perspective. Time Lord it is still a mystery, especially because he isn't a total klutz with the basketball. Could he be used as more of a playmaker; passing off of a screen like Draymond? Could he shoot threes? Develop a little turn-around?
Did he post at all in the game 2 thread?Strange, someone around here keeps telling us that Jaylen never shows up in big games.
Re: full court press.. that seems unsustainable for too long.. especially if they’re playing longer minutes than normal. Plus.. once the Cs break the press you risk getting scored on a lot because you’re not set in your half court d. Does Miami have the guards to run a full court press effectively?I think the Celtics struggle more than most when they get (or are gotten) off their game. I think they place high on the "No team that really truly is this fucking good should ever look so fucking terrible, but somehow they do" list. Usually when a team has big epic lapses it is because they aren't actually that good and their success is of the smoke-and-mirrors variety. That's not the Celtics - they are that good and it usually shows on the court.
As to the zone, I think the key differences between the Bubble C's and this team are Al Horford (who wasn't there) and Jayson Tatum (who is a lot better now, particularly when it comes to passing). Either Horford or Tatum can get the ball in the middle of the zone defense and just pick teams apart.
I would try full court pressure, since that worked for Milwaukee at times. Does Spoelstra have wrinkles to the zone? Can they fake blitz Tatum and recover to their guys? I don't know. Probably Lowry coming back and being immediately very good and Bam reverting more to his bubble self are the keys.
Tatum, Brown, Smart, Grant, and Rob are better now than they were then. We have Horford now and didn't then. Kemba and Hayward played a lot of injury-limited minutes. We have White and Pritchard; they had Wanamaker.
This series has shown some key areas where Rob can improve. When he gets that ball around the basket with a defender there, he needs to get up there strong and without getting his pocket picked. Obviously, even a good post player (Rob is more of a non-post player) will struggle if defended well, but Rob needs to be able to overpower guys who are just "there" as opposed to playing great D.
First half of 2020-21 season showed what JB can do when his health and head are in the right place. If that's where JB is trending, Celts are going to be real hard to beat.Word.
I'm the biggest Jaylen stan here, so grain of salt and all that, but I've never seen him better. I think that his defense has been excellent and underrated so far these playoffs.
They would need more than guards as even if Beverly or Alvarado were on the Heat you’d simply move Smart upcourt and have any of our other players bring the ball up against guys who can’t pressure. Even Horford has done a lot of this in the past. Full court presses don’t work in the NBA as it leads to numbers the other way more often than not.Re: full court press.. that seems unsustainable for too long.. especially if they’re playing longer minutes than normal. Plus.. once the Cs break the press you risk getting scored on a lot because you’re not set in your half court d. Does Miami have the guards to run a full court press effectively?
I didn't see game 1, but Game 2 I only recall a couple instances where he got isolated, and iirc they only scored on one. Point is he's making enough positive plays on both ends to outweigh the instances where he gets attacked defensively. At least so far.Thanks. Do you think this held up in Game 1? Or the 3rd quarter of Game 2?
This year's Cs team would sweep the playoff version of last year's Cs team in 3 games.I am 100% convinced that this Celtics team would easily sweep the bubble Celtics with an absent Hayward and hobbling Kemba, and it wouldn't be particularly close either.
Yeah.. that was basically what I was thinking. You don't see a lot of full court press for too long in the NBA vs. college because NBA players and teams usually adjust and don't get flustered as often typically.They would need more than guards as even if Beverly or Alvarado were on the Heat you’d simply move Smart upcourt and have any of our other players bring the ball up against guys who can’t pressure. Even Horford has done a lot of this in the past. Full court presses don’t work in the NBA as it leads to numbers the other way more often than not.
That's what Miami has to figure out IMO.From this article: "In [the Celtic's] dominant first half, Miami was 0-for-4 with four turnovers when Horford was the primary defender, per ESPN's Stats & Information research. Smart, meanwhile, was the last defender on Jimmy Butler -- who demolished Boston with Smart sidelined in Game 1 -- on 28 of the 46 plays Butler was on the court. Butler took just four shots when Smart guarded him. "
How is Golden State's current rating higher than their full strength rating? That doesn't make sense.MOre from 538.
Celtics current rating is 1756. That's 113 points higher than the Warriors. That's approximately the same distance between the Warriors and the Hornets.
Celtics full-strength rating is 1799, and 185 points higher than the Warriors. That's approximately the distance between the Warriors and the Wizards.
It's easier to maintain that net rating as the fourth guard on a juggernaut. The problem is when you have to play him big minutes against starters. In those instances he gets hunted. But, so long as Marcus stays healthy that isn't a problem.Per NBA.com, PP has the best Net Rating of any of the Celtics regulars in the playoffs, and the 3rd best DRating. If he's getting "hunted" so far it's not hurting them.
That's really only if you assume that 2020 Bubble Bam is his baseline. Boston was old, injured, and exhausted after the Toronto series ended up being a seven game slog. And they were defending Bam with Daniel Theis and rookie Grant Williams. Bam is basically Al Horford v1.1. He's got a solid all-around game and capable of anchoring a defense. You can't really expect that guy to be your alpha. He will need to extend his range the way Al has to be able to improve his effectiveness as a third star. The Heat are really a team of Robins and Wonder Twins desperately looking for Batman.Bam also plays like a shell of his 2020 self.
There were legitimately 5 posters in the game thread who kept talking about how Jaylen sucked and needed to wake up…it’s really fucking odd and annoying to read to be honestStrange, someone around here keeps telling us that Jaylen never shows up in big games.
Preach.There were legitimately 5 posters in the game thread who kept talking about how Jaylen sucked and needed to wake up…it’s really fucking odd and annoying to read to be honest
Totally agree. My point was in response to a question as to whether White would cut into PPs minutes. I was trying to respond that the team has been effective in his minutes on the floor, and to my eye he's been decent on the defensive end. I'd want to see him continue to get 15-20 minutes, I think he's earned it.It's easier to maintain that net rating as the fourth guard on a juggernaut. The problem is when you have to play him big minutes against starters. In those instances he gets hunted. But, so long as Marcus stays healthy that isn't a problem.
For the life of me I couldn't understand why Miami decided to pay $85 million for the ages 35-37 seasons of a 5'11" G. I guess they're hoping to trade him to OKC for... something.]You can include Lowry on this list. He’s been awful recently and is a downgrade over Vincent at this point.
See? Proof!!! If Jaylen truly showed up for the big games he'd be posting in the game thread too!Did he post at all in the game 2 thread?DeathoftheBambino said:Strange, someone around here keeps telling us that Jaylen never shows up in big games.
There's a few teams like that. I guess there's a way their ratings could think a player is playing ABOVE his typical rating.How is Golden State's current rating higher than their full strength rating? That doesn't make sense.
how about the kid from Exeter for $90M?For the life of me I couldn't understand why Miami decided to pay $85 million for the ages 35-37 seasons of a 5'11" G. I guess they're hoping to trade him to OKC for... something.]
He was pretty darn good in Game 1, I'd say - other than getting stripped a few times.Last night was the first game that I thought Rob looked like Rob since the injury. Blocks, lobs, rebounds. If it wasn’t a dominant performance, it was at least a pretty good one and while I know some of that may be that Giannis was a terrible matchup for him, he seems to be rounding into form at just the right time.
Because 538 inexplicably assumes they will play Wiseman 21 minutes and correctly expects he will be terrible in those minutes.How is Golden State's current rating higher than their full strength rating? That doesn't make sense.
Wiseman. JakeRae beat me to it.How is Golden State's current rating higher than their full strength rating? That doesn't make sense.