I think it's going to be Celtics in 5 (and I'm trying to separate my optimism from my fandom). It comes down to this for me:
- The Celtics have multiple options that they can throw at KD (Tatum, Brown, Horford in a pinch, TL if/when he comes back) and the same at Kyrie (Smart, White, Brown). None of those Cs will stop the Nets stars of course, but they'll at least make them work for every shot and there's no one really in the Cs core group for them to pick on, except when Theis and PP come off the bench (and ideally we're matching those minutes with one of the Nets stars sitting). When the Nets have two non-shooters on the floor (Brown and a center) the Cs will be able to devote more attention to them as well. As great as Durant and Irving are, I don't think they can score 80 points between the two of them every game and I'm not sure where the rest of the offense is coming from. This team isn't as deep as the one that pushed the Bucks last year and I highly doubt Simmons come back in anything resembling playing shape this series.
- The Nets don't have options to guard Tatum or Brown. Their defense may be improved, but they're only option to defend on the wing beyond KD is Kessler Edwards. I don't think they want him seeing big minutes. Bruce Brown is a great defender, but he's small and our wings can shoot over him. Plus I don't think Irving can maintain defensive intensity for a whole series, Curry stinks on D, and Durant could be pretty toasty after a few games of carrying the offense AND shouldering a big defensive burden. I think at least one of the two wings will be able to flourish in each game and ideally good contributions from Smart/White/Horford, who are going against inferior defensive players at their positions.
- Coaching - I think we have a slight coaching advantage. Ime has been drilling these guys all year in preparation for the playoffs. It looked ugly early, but now they're executing both offensively and defensively, and I think he'll be able to take advantage of the matchups in this series. Nash - IDK, it's hard to read him, but not much about this team seems terribly coachable. Everything for the Nets comes down to 1-on-1 and that might not be good enough against a well rounded team.
I think the Nets win one early at the Garden, then Boston closes out with three straight, the final victory being Time Lord's return.