This is helpful. Thanks.I don’t post here very often and don’t want to sound like Captain Obvious, but the first college senior drafted will indicate what they’ve agreed to over/under pay. If they have Mayer at or under slot, they might over pay in the 2nd or 3rd round and draft the senior in the 4th or 5th. If they draft the college senior in the 2nd, we’ll know they went all in on Mayer. If no college senior is drafted tomorrow, they’re sticking with slot bonuses.
College seniors typically agree to $1-$10k kind of bonuses and have an agreement in writing before the draft. Get one of those in the 4th round and the Sox have that slot to spend. The Sox 4th round slot is north of $550k. The 5th is $410k and change. That’s where you save money for “over pay”.
They may have talked Mayer into agreeing to a slot bonus because:
A: you won’t have to play for the Pirates or other crappy team
B: said crappy team wouldn’t give full slot so they could overpay later round picks. They want quantity and HS SS are a gamble
He seems like such a natural fit.Get me Josh Baez at #40 and I’ll be happy.
This is basically it. Plus, if Mayer manages to be the consensus 1-1 in three years, there are no guarantees that a team like the Pirates don’t pass on him again in favor of going under slot.At #4, they know his number. You don’t draft a player at #4 who you don’t have an outline of an agreement with. They’ve done work on EVERYONE in the top 300. I read something back in late June about the Sox trying to manipulate their way into getting Mayer to fall to them. A player can give different teams different numbers.
As far as leverage, he can go to college and play three years and try to move up, but there are an infinite number of positions below #4 and only 3 above it. The chances are slim that he’d turn in this lottery ticket for another one in three years.
Especially to a big market team that is not in a rebuild. To go to a winning organization at the top of the MLB draft is really, really rare.This is basically it. Plus, if Mayer manages to be the consensus 1-1 in three years, there are no guarantees that a team like the Pirates don’t pass on him again in favor of going under slot.
Him getting drafted in the top 4 by a big market team is as good or better than getting drafted 1-1. Sounds like both he and the Sox are confident they’ll get a deal hammered out fairly quickly.
I spoke it into existenceHoping Jud Fabian slips to the Sox in the second.
He was, but then he had a ton of strikeout issues during his season. To get him at 40 is amazing.MLB said at one point he was talked about at #4
79 strikeouts in 225 AB's is terrifying, but the power tool is big time. .249/.364/.560 was his slash line this year.I'm definitely worried about the swing and miss with Fabian as he strikes out A LOT. He hit 20 bombs in the SEC this year and he can probably play in Center so there is a lot to dream on there in terms of upside. You have to believe the Red Sox think they can help him with his in zone discipline. Hard not to trust them. Mayer and Fabian is a lot of talent to add to this system.
According to the scouting report I posted: "it’s rare to see someone miss that much in college and figure it out down the line, too."I'm definitely worried about the swing and miss with Fabian as he strikes out A LOT. He hit 20 bombs in the SEC this year and he can probably play in Center so there is a lot to dream on there in terms of upside. You have to believe the Red Sox think they can help him with his in zone discipline. Hard not to trust them. Mayer and Fabian is a lot of talent to add to this system.
Bats right, throws left, ala Rickey. Interesting.
I'll take a repeat of that slash line at the ML level!79 strikeouts in 225 AB's is terrifying, but the power tool is big time. .249/.364/.560 was his slash line this year.
Why not? Every player is different. Dalbec is a major leaguer right now, despite all the bellyaching about his swing and miss proclivities. If this kid can perform similarly (or you know, learn better contact skills), seems like a win to me.According to the scouting report I posted: "it’s rare to see someone miss that much in college and figure it out down the line, too."
Sounds like Dalbec - do we want to go through that again?!
Yeah that's about right.What's this guy's ceiling? A Hunter Renfroe type? I say that in a good way
Cards just took him.What’re the odds that Baez lasts until #75? I’d really like to see him in Boston.
Goes to the Cards at 54.What’re the odds that Baez lasts until #75? I’d really like to see him in Boston.
not goodWhat’re the odds that Baez lasts until #75? I’d really like to see him in Boston.
Dalbec was a top 100 prospect who has a .700 OPS in MLB. If Fabian can do that and play Center field, he's probably a top 50-75 prospect and it would be an outstanding outcome for this pick.According to the scouting report I posted: "it’s rare to see someone miss that much in college and figure it out down the line, too."
Sounds like Dalbec - do we want to go through that again?!
Overall in the draft, or overall in the minors?"Fabian is projected as the No. 23 overall prospect by MLB.com and the No. 27 overall prospect by Baseball America."
Fabian is one of the leaders in the “tooled-up SEC outfielders who swing and miss too much” category, leading the pack in tools, but with no history of making adjustments even though he has two pretty significant holes in his approach. He’s cut his strikeout rate to a manageable level over the last few weeks in the SEC, enough to put himself into second-round range for someone who wants to bet on his upside, but there is just no indication he’s going to be able to hit.
All of those rankings are amateur ranks for draft purposes. He was a 1st round grade prospect by most of the publications. Law and the Athletic being the outlier.Overall in the draft, or overall in the minors?
I’d have a hard time believing the latter.
He’s a major-leaguer, true, but one with a minus-1.2 WAR this season. I have nothing against him personally and I hope he improves but he’s been really bad.Dalbec is a major leaguer right now, despite all the bellyaching about his swing and miss proclivities.
No history of making adjustments except the recent adjustments.Fabian is one of the leaders in the “tooled-up SEC outfielders who swing and miss too much” category, leading the pack in tools, but with no history of making adjustments even though he has two pretty significant holes in his approach. He’s cut his strikeout rate to a manageable level over the last few weeks in the SEC, enough to put himself into second-round range for someone who wants to bet on his upside, but there is just no indication he’s going to be able to hit.