Looking at last year's playoff stats for the Lakers, Howard/McGee averaged just under 20 minutes per game between them, AD played 5 the rest of the time.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/LAL/2020.html#all_playoffs_totals
NBA Play In Tourney
- Thread starter ifmanis5
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https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/LAL/2020.html#all_playoffs_totals
Yeah, its more of a regular season thing than anything else. I think things can change based on opponent personnel. Portland had a hobbled Nurkic, Houston didn't play anything close to a real 5, Denver did have Jokic, and Miami had Bam whose good but not necessarily behemoth center.
This year, looking at the potential #5s in the West, you have Gobert, Ayton, Jokic, Zubac (who won't play much), Porzingis and Nurkic. So there will be more prototypical 5s this year, and I expect if Ayton is playing a lot of minutes, we will see a decent amount of Drummond/Gasol in the Phoenix series.
You're over rating an injured 36 year old Lebron and a recently injured AD. I don't think we're going to see their peak career performances in the playoffs.
And make no mistake, the non-Lebron/AD Lakers roster is very bad this season. I think they need All-time versions of Lebron and AD to be carried to a title, and I just dont see it.
Their path might be somewhat favorable compared to what it could be, but I still would be surprised to see them get out of the West.
I don't see them as much better than a coin flip to win any of the 3 potential series they will play, and that gives them about a 10-15% chances of making the Finals. That seems about right to me.
Counterpoint: the non-Lebron/AD Lakers roster was very bad last season also, I don't think it's much different this year.
Also, LeBron's alltime record in non-Finals playoff series is a ridiculous 35-4. Obviously that will end at some point, but I would not bet against him if he is healthy (big if).
14-0 first round
11-3 second round
10-1 conference finals
4-6 Finals
We shall see but from my seat this teams issues go beyond LeBron’s ankle. Davis and Schroeder are returning from layoffs and aren’t in peak form. Drummond is taking AD’s spots on the floor even when he isn’t needed leaving the latter watching off the ball rather than taking advantage of his matchup.
Last year the Lakers had true role players who didn’t require minutes and Vogel could best utilize his roster. That isn’t the case this year which results in Schroeder being on the floor in bad matchups while Drummond has to see minutes even when the opponent doesn’t have a big 5 that requires him. He will be of great value in certain matchups but you are stuck with playing him even in bad matchups to not lose him. I see their rotation and roster as a mess I like last year.
The thing about last year's playoffs was that all the players were trapped in a claustrophobic bubble and forced to play all the games in empty gymnasium. It was a weird series of games and it would be really hard to make predictions this year based on what happened last year. The Lakers did really well adjusting to the bubble and LeBron's leadership deserves a lot of credit for that, and that gave them an advantage imo that doesn't exist this season.
I don't think this Lakers team is significantly worse than last years team. Last year they were relying on JR Smith and Dion Waiters at certain points. Drummond/Harrell/Gasol is much better than Dwight/JaVale even if they might be a little higher maintenance when it comes to their role. I think the only real major difference is the Schroeder/Rondo swap. If Schroeder can score consistently and carry the offense for short stretches while LeBron is resting, he will be a better fit than Rondo. When he isn't scoring (like last night) it becomes a problem because Rondo was legitimately really good at running the offense and getting more limited role players the ball, similar to LeBron, which gave them a balance that this team doesn't have. They really rely on LeBron to do a ton and if he isn't 100% it will be rough.
Couple things......
1. I’m not buying the whole bubble excuse/reason for anything anymore. After further review the results were consistent from any normal year to year variance.
2. Sure this years Laker team has more individual talent. That isn’t my point. They have chemistry issues that were not evident last year which is due to having too much individual talent that don’t play well into the necessary roles for optimal team performance. It’s a cluster from my seat.
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My general feeling is simple, if the Lakers have anything close to 100% (say 85-90%) out of LeBron and AD in the playoffs they are clear favorites.
When you have 2 of the 4 best 2 way players in the league you're going to do damage.
When you have 2 of the 4 best 2 way players in the league you're going to do damage.
A lot comes down to Lebron's health, as you mentioned. If we see Lebron from last year I would obviously improve their odds. If they sweep the Suns and Lebron looks great, then certainly that changes things, but I think that's unlikely.
He certainly didn't look like that guy last night. High ankle sprains take a long time to heal, can scar quite a bit leading to additional discomfort, and can also go along with other injuries that may not have been been publicized.
I honestly don't see this version of Lebron/AD as a strong favorite against any team in the West other than the Warriors/Grizzlies (who they almost surely won't play). I'm sure they aren't exactly a 50/50 bet against each of the top 6, but something in that range feels right to me.
That puts them at a pretty significant underdog to make it out of the West in my mind, in that 10-15% range I mentioned. I saw them at +200 to win the Western Conference recently, and I definitely disagree with that line without some more concrete proof we are going to see near-peak Lebron.
I agree completely, but the "AD is in tier 3 with Dame and below Doncic" people likely don't.
View: https://twitter.com/TheSteinLine/status/1395487498780872704
Lakers/Warriors play-in game last night drew an average audience of 5.6 million. The most-watched NBA game on its air, @espn says, since the 2019 Western Conference finals.
Lakers/Warriors play-in game last night drew an average audience of 5.6 million. The most-watched NBA game on its air, @espn says, since the 2019 Western Conference finals.
Maybe a combination of a little fine the other night with a lot finer than the Pacers defense. Russ clearly wasn’t himself against us either for whatever reason.
I dono, I thought that there was some evidence that shooting on free throws was much higher, taking into account the expectation of who was shooting each one, and significantly so. I would have to search around for the source but if that were true I would say there is definitely something to the argument that the shooting was easier with the clean sightlines or less crowd noise or whatever it may have been.
Also, are we just ignoring the amazing force that is Playoff Rondo?
Yes I agree the shooting backgrounds made a difference but they made a difference for everyone. If wasn’t like one team was shooting in the bubble and the other in a dome. Certain players enjoyed more success and you can call the Heat an outlier but overall the bubble was an even playing field.
Yes, the Lakers had Rondo who may be a better fit than Schroeder. They had Howard who may be a better fit than Drummond......but most of all they had a hunger. They played with a clear desperate focus that this team doesn’t seem to have.
But also they haven't really needed to, and more importantly health hasn't allowed them to. They showed good focus coming back on GS in the second half the other night, I think we'll know a lot more about their relative level of focus in a week or two.
The Warrior game is one example of them NOT having the edge they had last year. Sleepwalk out of the gate, top 3 players were shooting a combined 2-22 at one point, and grind out an uninspirational win against a mediocre at best team due to Alex Caruso or else they lose. Not sure there is a flip to switch for them that stays on for more than one night. We shall see this week.
The bubble provided a level playing field certainly, but it affected people differently. Some people were elevated to god status, and some people disappeared. That's not to say that it was unfair, just an unusual and fascinating phenomenon. The combination of lack of crowd noise, fewer mental distractions in game and outside the arenas, and the different shooting backdrops, all differences. Really interesting shit.
No doubt. With all that went on last summer I enjoyed the NBA probably more than any other season with games all throughout the day.
Sure, but the Lakers didn't thrive in the regular season bubble last year, either (3-5), and then stunk up the first game of the playoffs against the red-hot Blazers. Pretty sure I recall a lot of people assuming Portland would win that series at that point. But the Lakers kicked it in just like they seemed to kick in during the 2nd half of the Warriors game. This year might be analogous in the sense that benching Drummond the way that Vogel benched Howard and McGee last year will be key. Davis has to play at the 5 for them. But what isn't analogous is that LBJ is injured and playing without lift and that Schroder lacks Rondo's basketball IQ. In short, I don't think it's a matter of desire and chemistry (they really stuck together pretty impressively in the absence of LBJ and Davis and Schroder), but rather their playoff tale will be told based on LBJ's health, the use/overuse of Drummond at the 5, and whether or not Schroder being a head case can be compensated for with his superior physical skills.
...and some players really just wanted to get it over with. They went from isolation during a quarantine with their family to isolation from their families to be in some basketball summer camp for TV. I highly doubt Paul George was the only player who went through bouts of depression while there.
Wiggins might be as good as Russell, so it's an amazing trade, but as a player.... EHHHHHHHHH
Lol Foster and crew throwing as many fouls as they can at the MEM bigs so GS gets a ton of offensive rebounds... still can't score
If Golden State just had anyone else who could score. Curry has 35 and nobody else can take advantage.
I'm kinda shocked he's even been to the playoffs let alone won a game. Maybe he'll have his Kwame Brown moment ten years from now (lol)
Wiggins is the 3rd leading scorer in this game...
The problem is that you can't have Draymond and Looney give you 7 points on 8 FGA in 61 minutes.
GS is ahead or even with the top 4 scorers respectively, it's the short rotation and 4 non-scorers that's the issue.
Wiggins was born to be a volume scorer on bad teams. He has no business being in games like this.
LOL at Grizzlies not using their challenge that would have saved them 3 points and stopped momentum. Church league coaches challenge there.
