He at least should have won over D Rose in 2010 and probably over Kobe in 2008.
I've said many times that the D-Rose pick was a crime scene, and I agree 2008 is interesting. There are years that LeBron did not win the MVP that I think that he should have won. However, there seems to be a disconnect with some people who think that because LeBron has been the best basketball player for the last 15 years, that means that logically he should be the MVP every season, and every year he was not, it was some sort of disaster and only took place because the media didn't want to vote for him again.
The MVP is not an award for "Who would you want to have in Game 7 of a Playoff Game?" it is "Who was the best player throughout this particular regular season?". Maybe the former question is a better way to asses true value, but the latter is the methodology used when it comes to voting for the MVP. LeBron has easily been the best overall player from the last ten years, but often times throughout the regular season he was not the best player night-in-and-night-out.
Let's look at this season. Per 36 minutes, this is how Giannis and LeBron compare.
Giannis: 35-16-6, 55% shooting, 61% True Shooting, 30% from Three, 63% from the line, 11 FTA per game, 4 Turnovers per game
LeBron: 26-8-10, 49% shooting, 57% True Shooting, 34% from Three, 69% from the line, 6 FTA per game, 4 Turnovers per game
So outside of LeBron being a bit better three point shooter and FT shooter (but still below average) and LeBron having superior assist numbers, Giannis had clearly better stats than LeBron during the regular season. He was also a much, much better defender than LeBron, as evidenced by his worthy DPOY win. He beats LeBron in every worthy advanced metric, PER, OWS, DWS, WS/48, OBPM, DBPM, BPM, VORP, etc. His team was more successful throughout the regular season as evidenced not only by their record, but by many advanced metrics as well.
So then the playoffs roll around, Giannis' weaknesses get more exposed, LeBron comes through, and then everyone retroactively decides that in fact, LeBron is the best player and should have won MVP and we feel stupid for giving Giannis the MVP. The voters must have gotten it wrong. Except that they didn't. It is a regular season award and all logic and statistics show that Giannis was the superior player during the regular season. It wasn't particularly close and a month ago when media members were talking about their ballots, all of the ones I heard had Giannis first, which was reflected in him running away with the award. It wasn't until the playoffs rolled around and people decided that LeBron should have won the MVP; except that isn't what the award is for. It isn't for the playoffs.
So that is why when people say "LeBron should have a dozen MVPs!" imo, they don't really understand what the award is for.