Spend half the season on the IL? Yeah, I'm sure they could find a rando to do that. 39 innings at 3.86 ERA and a 10.4 K/9 rate? Doubt random minor league RP can reliably do that.Not really a shock. I'd try and flip Hembree for a C level prospect. Certainly has to be a random minor league RP that can duplicate his 2019 for cheaper.
Is this the parody account again? I know you didn't like Hembree for his political views, but as RHF says, he's been a key part of the bullpen for awhile and this is a reasonable price for that performance.Not really a shock. I'd try and flip Hembree for a C level prospect. Certainly has to be a random minor league RP that can duplicate his 2019 for cheaper.
He doesn't make enough to be dumped, but I don't think he'd be all that hard to replace either.Spend half the season on the IL? Yeah, I'm sure they could find a rando to do that. 39 innings at 3.86 ERA and a 10.4 K/9 rate? Doubt random minor league RP can reliably do that.
Unless they're going to go full Marlins on a firesale, I don't think trading Hembree and his $1.6M salary is really much of a priority...or a wise move.
Eh its not even his views. I'm over that with him. I just think paying almost 2 million for him is excessive. Not difficult to replace at a fraction of the cost. I also hate Barnes but with this team he'd be very difficult to replace.Is this the parody account again? I know you didn't like Hembree for his political views, but as RHF says, he's been a key part of the bullpen for awhile and this is a reasonable price for that performance.
Trading Barnes (and/or Workman) would actually bring something of value back though. No one is trading anything of value for Heath Hembree.Eh its not even his views. I'm over that with him. I just think paying almost 2 million for him is excessive. Not difficult to replace at a fraction of the cost. I also hate Barnes but with this team he'd be very difficult to replace.
Eh its not even his views. I'm over that with him. I just think paying almost 2 million for him is excessive. Not difficult to replace at a fraction of the cost. I also hate Barnes but with this team he'd be very difficult to replace.
Ramirez?Tyrone Biggums said:
Eh its not even his views. I'm over that with him. I just think paying almost 2 million for him is excessive. Not difficult to replace at a fraction of the cost. I also hate Barnes but with this team he'd be very difficult to replace.
Erasmo Rodriguez is available
That is the record amount for an arb eligible player per McAdam
Whew. That’s a lot, lot of money for a arbitration player. Crazy to think what he can get on the open market. He’s gonna need a 2018 season in 2020.
Well, an Arb3 award of $27m suggests an AAV comp of 33.75m, based on the 40%-60%-80% scheme. This suggests the comps that the Sox and his representation are talking about.Whew. That’s a lot, lot of money for a arbitration player. Crazy to think what he can get on the open market. He’s gonna need a 2018 season in 2020.
There is an Athletic piece today by the Dodgers beat guy, who usually has good team sources, and who seemed to strongly imply that the Dodgers would be going after Betts hard next winter, and the expected price would be somewhere between Harper (13/330) and Trout (12/426):Well, an Arb3 award of $27m suggests an AAV comp of 33.75m, based on the 40%-60%-80% scheme. This suggests the comps that the Sox and his representation are talking about.
Machado's AAV is $30m, Arenado's is $32.5m and Trout's is just shy of $36m. He'll be in that mix.
I expected a tick over $28m.That is the record amount for an arb eligible player per McAdam
Cot's guesstimates Beni at 4.2m and Rodriguez at $9m. I suppose every dollar counts, but I don't know why you'd create an adversarial situation to save a few bucks with either over those margins, particularly ERod.
Because if the team simply says "Oh, we're close, let's give it to him" every time, then it's not going to be just a few bucks.Cot's guesstimates Beni at 4.2m and Rodriguez at $9m. I suppose every dollar counts, but I don't know why you'd create an adversarial situation to save a few bucks with either over those margins, particularly ERod.
It's not a matter of the team just being a spendthrift. Cot's estimates have been pretty close to the settled amounts with the other arb guys, so the fact that the players are going in below Cot's estimates would lead one to suspect that the front office is going to end up on the losing end with both. Unless they have some specific reasons for going low (and hey, the probably do), they're going to lose more money by going to arb than by finding a compromise with both.Because if the team simply says "Oh, we're close, let's give it to him" every time, then it's not going to be just a few bucks.
But I thought that the arb filing amounts were not necessarily identical to the last offer made in direct negotiation. I.e., just because $8.975M is what Rodriguez filed, that doesn't necessarily mean it's the last number the Sox FO heard, does it?It's not a matter of the team just being a spendthrift. Cot's estimates have been pretty close to the settled amounts with the other arb guys, so the fact that the players are going in below Cot's estimates would lead one to suspect that the front office is going to end up on the losing end with both. Unless they have some specific reasons for going low (and hey, the probably do), they're going to lose more money by going to arb than by finding a compromise with both.
Or keep Price, who is better than any remaining free agent starter, and go for it in 2020. "Some pitchers". Who did you have in mind?So we’re going to end up around $18m over $208m. Send Price somewhere so we can dip under the threshold and then sign Mookie and some pitchers next year to go for it in 2021.
This is where I'm at... either keep the team intact (assume good health and productivity and this team is basically the '18 WS Champs) or just break it all apart and fully rebuild. They're not going to be a competitive without Price or JDM out there and instead some replacement level schtupOr keep Price, who is better than any remaining free agent starter, and go for it in 2020. "Some pitchers". Who did you have in mind?
It'll be interesting to see how the Sox approach this. The Rays in recent years have been a "file and trial" team, at least as evidenced by MLBTR's arbitration tracker -- the final salary has always been one of the submitted amounts, never in between. I wonder if Bloom has brought that approach with him.Beni will get $3.8
EdRo will get $8.633
Hey, nothing wrong with a replacement level schtup! But yeah: keep Price and pay the damn tax.This is where I'm at... either keep the team intact (assume good health and productivity and this team is basically the '18 WS Champs) or just break it all apart and fully rebuild. They're not going to be a competitive without Price or JDM out there and instead some replacement level schtup
Maybe--I don't have any detailed understanding of the intricacies of what happens when. But even then, if ERod was asking for $10M during negotiations and then submitted $9M for arbitration, seems like it would have been a simple thing for the team to just say they're OK with that, given that they've been OK with the guesstimates for other players.But I thought that the arb filing amounts were not necessarily identical to the last offer made in direct negotiation. I.e., just because $8.975M is what Rodriguez filed, that doesn't necessarily mean it's the last number the Sox FO heard, does it?
“Paying the damn tax” means that $33 million a year for Mookie next year is $45 million a year. They will be competing for his services with teams that will only be at the 20% threshold which means that they can bid $36 million for the same total cost, and maybe even some teams that won’t even owe any tax, like perhaps the Braves, so they could easily outbid either.Hey, nothing wrong with a replacement level schtup! But yeah: keep Price and pay the damn tax.
The $/WAR number is also calculated from actual contracts, and we've seen that high WAR players end up getting very long contracts. The individual year salaries are suppressed by the expectation of reduced performance in the future and the risk of injury. So yeah, if MIke Trout only signed contracts year to year, maybe he could get $80 mil in a single year. Probably not, but maybe. You would still have to factor in his chance of getting injured in a given single year. We've also never seen that tried before so we don't have anything to compare it to. But instead Trout has a 12 year contract and is accepting below market rate for his WAR value this year in exchange for the security and knowledge that he is probably going to be overpaid for his WAR contribution at the end of it.“Paying the damn tax” means that $33 million a year for Mookie next year is $45 million a year. They will be competing for his services with teams that will only be at the 20% threshold which means that they can bid $36 million for the same total cost, and maybe even some teams that won’t even owe any tax, like perhaps the Braves, so they could easily outbid either.
Writing that, I wonder if from the discussion in the other thread, the luxury tax is one thing keeping $/WAR seeming linear. Have any of those studies adjusted for the total after tax cost of free agent signings.
A ton of people have. For a long time, salary inflation was 4-5% a year, but recently the trend is less clear.Has anyone looked at whether there is any yearly inflation numbers, so to speak, regarding arbitration exchanges and salaries?
Thanks for the link. What I also wonder about is how the arbitration results are fitting into these curves. Are more eligible players being signed or going to arbitration in recent years?A ton of people have. For a long time, salary inflation was 4-5% a year, but recently the trend is less clear.