John Henry, Sam Kennedy and other Red Sox brass have equivocated somewhat as to the budget new Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom will have to assemble a 2020 roster. After initially suggesting they wanted to see payroll down below the $208m CBT threshold — some $30m below the 2019 figure — they later clarified that that was a "goal, not a mandate."
I'm not sure I buy that they are actually going to try to do this. It seems pretty stupid to me, frankly, to prefer to spend ~$200m on a badly flawed roster than to spend a few dozen millions more, even with the tax and draft penalties, on a contender, when we're so close (health permitting) to real contention, with all the financial rewards it can bring (and returns in an exciting season for us!). The people who run the team are pretty smart, so while they might have their reasons for talking about getting under the cap, I guess I'll believe that that is their intention when I see it.
(If, on the other hand, they wanted to trade a ton of people and start a complete rebuild, I would deem that premature, but defensible.)
But is it even possible? Now that JD Martínez has opted in, it appears likely that the budget is already considerably above the $208 level, once arbitration awards are accounted for, and that is for a roster that presently lacks an obvious fifth starter, second baseman, and first baseman, and probably could use more pitching depth writ large — although there are certainly in-house candidates for all those roles. [Cots contracts spreadsheet]
But it seems likely that if the team does in fact aim to get below that number, they will need to deal from their stock of high-priced talent. Right now we're discussing a number of these trades in other threads, but I thought it might be interesting to talk out some of those ideas in here. Not to teach my grandmother how to suck eggs, but if mods wanted to move some of the pre-existing discussions — including some I started — that are clogging up other threads in here, that might make some sense. I figured we needed some more threads.
I'm interested in particular in how much surplus value (if any) people think these contracts have, and which teams might be interested in acquiring them, and what kind of package we might be able to get in return. A few candidates to get us started:
I'm not sure I buy that they are actually going to try to do this. It seems pretty stupid to me, frankly, to prefer to spend ~$200m on a badly flawed roster than to spend a few dozen millions more, even with the tax and draft penalties, on a contender, when we're so close (health permitting) to real contention, with all the financial rewards it can bring (and returns in an exciting season for us!). The people who run the team are pretty smart, so while they might have their reasons for talking about getting under the cap, I guess I'll believe that that is their intention when I see it.
(If, on the other hand, they wanted to trade a ton of people and start a complete rebuild, I would deem that premature, but defensible.)
But is it even possible? Now that JD Martínez has opted in, it appears likely that the budget is already considerably above the $208 level, once arbitration awards are accounted for, and that is for a roster that presently lacks an obvious fifth starter, second baseman, and first baseman, and probably could use more pitching depth writ large — although there are certainly in-house candidates for all those roles. [Cots contracts spreadsheet]
But it seems likely that if the team does in fact aim to get below that number, they will need to deal from their stock of high-priced talent. Right now we're discussing a number of these trades in other threads, but I thought it might be interesting to talk out some of those ideas in here. Not to teach my grandmother how to suck eggs, but if mods wanted to move some of the pre-existing discussions — including some I started — that are clogging up other threads in here, that might make some sense. I figured we needed some more threads.
I'm interested in particular in how much surplus value (if any) people think these contracts have, and which teams might be interested in acquiring them, and what kind of package we might be able to get in return. A few candidates to get us started:
- Price likely has little surplus value, and perhaps a somewhat negative value.
- AAV $31m
- I don't think the numbers support the views of those posters who think his contract is heavily underwater, but a trade involving Price would likely be a straight salary dump, with perhaps an A ball reliever coming back.
- While I could imagine a range of contenders being interested in his services, I would expect very little in return unless the Sox paid some of his freight.
- That said, sending money in a deal would likely only make sense in a total rebuild.
- Betts, in contrast, has considerable value, even on a one-year deal.
- AAV TBD, but likely ~$27m
- He has been "worth" (in Fangraphs' calculations) an average of $61m per season the last four years, so his $27m payroll doesn't come close to exhausting his production.
- That difference should return a prospect in the middle third of the top 100 list.
- Personally, I wouldn't trade him, even if he declines an extension. The delta in value between what we could expect back (unless I'm very wrong) and the 4th round pick we'd get in compensation if we *fail* to sign him in FA is worth less than the positive value of a season of Mookie Betts at $27m.
- JD Martinez also has considerable value on paper, but it is complicated by a number of factors.
- AAV $23.8m, lower after next year due to a technicality.
- On the positive side, since his breakout, he's been worth an average of $32m a season, and he's paid ~$10m less than that.
- But the opt-outs make it hard for a team to know how many seasons they're buying, and his abysmal defense means only AL teams with openings at DH should be interested.
- Rumor has it that the White Sox might be curious, and I think he would make a lot of sense for them. I would pursue that if we need to get our payroll down.
- A JDM-Nelson Cruz swap with Minnesota is another possibility.
- The emergence of Devers and Bogaerts as elite power threats makes JDM less crucial to the roster in 2020 than he was in 2018.
- JBJ is probably going to get an arb award around $10m.
- AAV TBD, likely ~$10m.
- Fangraphs has his value at $11m for 2019, but he's a tough one to project. He's a lock to give you a positive WAR just on the basis of his excellent defense, and in his better offensive seasons he can be much more valuable than that.
- The Mets and Phillies should be very interested, as they are allegedly contending, but lack a strong CF situation. I could also imagine
- It was interesting to see him post a lower AVG, higher SLG season in 2019 with a low BABIP; I am bullish on his 2020 and would keep him if we possibly can.
- It seems to me that responding to a disappointing season from your pitching staff by making your OF defense worse might be misguided.