Now do 7 days!Last 14 days:
Leon (23 PA) 145 wRC+
Vazquez (27 PA) 116 wRC+
Swihart (23 PA) 24 wRC+
JBJ (44 PA) 120 wRC+
Devers (44 PA) 36 wRC+
Hanley (4 PA) -100 wRC+ - that's a thing!
Now do 7 days!Last 14 days:
Leon (23 PA) 145 wRC+
Vazquez (27 PA) 116 wRC+
Swihart (23 PA) 24 wRC+
JBJ (44 PA) 120 wRC+
Devers (44 PA) 36 wRC+
Hanley (4 PA) -100 wRC+ - that's a thing!
In terms of a stat like wRC+ (which I like as a broad offensive indicator), there is very little predictive value in a 2 month sample. It's really only a snapshot of past performance over a given time period. Obviously, different statistics stabilize over smaller or larger samples and this one isn't much use as a future indicator in this small of a sample.I realize that 2 months can be a frustratingly long period of time to watch both the catchers not hit the side of a barn, but what do you all consider the definition, time wise, to be SSS? Isn't 2 months still just that or is that actually predictive of future performance? They seem to be turning it around anyhow, or at least showing glimmers of that.
If all of this is true, and it's written convincingly for sure, then the vast majority of this thread is hand wringing and speculation.In terms of a stat like wRC+ (which I like as a broad offensive indicator), there is very little predictive value in a 2 month sample. It's really only a snapshot of past performance over a given time period. Obviously, different statistics stabilize over smaller or larger samples and this one isn't much use as a future indicator in this small of a sample.
At this point, though, we're starting to get a general idea of what the overall season line will look like. For instance, bosox79's post showing they'd need to put up a .774 OPS the rest of the year to finish over .700 tells us that it's probably unlikely. Showing the last 14 days vs. the last 30 days shows just how volatile the numbers still are. Look at Vazquez: 116 wRC+ in the last 2 weeks, yet only a 54 over 30 days - which is only double the sample. But, he obviously has produced very differently over that period than the rest of the season previous. Regression? Luck? Has he figured something out and turned a corner? My vote is for simple regression - he isn't (and never was) going to be as bad as a 25 wRC+ over a full season. But how far from that will he be? At the two month mark, the full season error bars are still huge. We can start making some general assumptions about guys at the ends of the performance spectrum. For example, it's safe to say Vazquez isn't going to have an All-Star-caliber season, and Mookie is going to have a good season. And, we can start to see some trends: again, Vazquez is on an uptick and Devers is in a spiral. But, the samples are still too small to know how predictive those trends are. If we have guys who have been poor all season and are continuing in that direction, we're getting to the point where we need to be worried about them. However, we don't really have any of those guys. Nunez, Devers, and Swihart come closest to fitting the bill. Devers had a decent first month, though (89 wRC+); Nunez is/should be a bench player and has enough of a track record that we should expect marginal improvement on the current 72 wRC+; Swihart only has a quarter of the PAs as a starter - so he isn't really at the 2 month mark yet. For me, the end of June is where it starts making sense to worry about a player's rest of the season. Statistically speaking, that's still probably too early.
Writing about sports whether on the professional or amateur level is about 53% hand-wringing, 38% speculation, 4% simple reporting of facts, and 5% actual insightful analysis.If all of this is true, and it's written convincingly for sure, then the vast majority of this thread is hand wringing and speculation.
SSS alert.Writing about sports whether on the professional or amateur level is about 53% hand-wringing, 38% speculation, 4% simple reporting of facts, and 5% actual insightful analysis.
At the best of times.
This is fantastic! The only thing that would've made it better would be if the percentages didn't add up to 100%.Writing about sports whether on the professional or amateur level is about 53% hand-wringing, 38% speculation, 4% simple reporting of facts, and 5% actual insightful analysis.
At the best of times.
See, I thought it was about 93% perspiration, 6% inspiration, 3% perspiration, and 2% butterscotch ripple.Writing about sports whether on the professional or amateur level is about 53% hand-wringing, 38% speculation, 4% simple reporting of facts, and 5% actual insightful analysis.
At the best of times.
4% - Vaz went 2-4 tonight. 38% - Things are turning around! 53% - This probably won't last, shitty contract. 5% - ?????Writing about sports whether on the professional or amateur level is about 53% hand-wringing, 38% speculation, 4% simple reporting of facts, and 5% actual insightful analysis.
At the best of times.
It is nice to see him get on track. He sure looked like a lost cause from the get-go and the waste of a 3rd round pick (I'm not sure if I'm allowed to call that a high draft pick or not...). Hopefully, he can keep progressing. For a dose of pessimistic perspective: He's only a year and a half younger than Swihart. By that age, Vazquez had 55 MLB games under his belt and a .700+ OPS at both AA and AAA.Mentioned this in another thread but we may (or may not) actually have catching depth in the minors.
Former 3rd round pick Austin Rei is slashing .294/.406/.469 in 175 PA since April 23. For the year, .250/.372/.403 in 215 PA. He does turn 25 in October and he's only in AA but catchers are supposed to develop later on, and he did miss some development time to injury IIRC. Rei has always been a guy who walks a lot, but hasn't been able to hit for contact. Decent arm, ok defense. Might be worth following, although he probably doesn't come into the picture until next year at the earliest.
I hope they don't put too much stock into the W-L record with Leon, but I also don't know that Swihart is that much better of an alternative. With the 9 game lead, the Sox should be using some of this time to find out one way or another what they have with Swihart. He was hitting well prior to the DL stint but it was heavily BAbip fueled. (.405/.463/.595 line with a .468 BAbip in 41PA ) Of course, prior to that his BAbip was .216 in 80 PA. For the season, he's now at .213/.273/.287 on a .287 BAbip in 132 PA.Will the Red Sox be able count on the bottom half of the order against playoff pitching. I worry about Sandly Leon going 0-15 with 5 double plays and 8 strikeouts, yet still catching every game.
Mentioned it somewhere on this board a few days back, but not this thread.After today's first game, Swihart is up to .233/.289/.333 for the year. That's a full 100 points of OPS above Leon (.518) and 77 points higher than Vazquez (.545). If you look at splits for more recent performance (2nd half, last 30 days, last 14 days, etc.), those gaps grow to 3-5 times that size. I'm not sure how much it means (or should mean) for playoff roster construction, but Swihart is currently a significantly better hitter than the other two.
I will be rather upset if he's not on th postseason roster. I understand the Leon will probably get most of the starts because of how much the SPs love pitching to him/how he calls a game, but in close/late situations we should almost always be hitting for him.Mentioned it somewhere on this board a few days back, but not this thread.
Swihart's last 46 games, 121 PA: .286/.339/.429 on a .367 BAbip.
First 34 games, 80 PA: .149/.213/.176, .216 BAbip.
Clearly some luck involved in both, but given his speed you'd expect a higher BAbip, just not .367. Small samples either way but positive none the less.
Well, probably only because we really have to - I think it'd be a problem if we just waited and had someone retrieve the ball at the backstop after every pitch. And I don't think the umpire would appreciate having to jump out of the way of every pitch to avoid getting hit (although I guess they could stand behind the batter for cover - I'm sure that wouldn't help them in calling an accurate strike zone, although it would give them an excuse).I think I've found the silver lining to the 3 catcher on the roster issue. We'll only see one on the field at a time.
I think all 3 catchers are pretty much a given to make the roster.I will be rather upset if he's not on th postseason roster. I understand the Leon will probably get most of the starts because of how much the SPs love pitching to him/how he calls a game, but in close/late situations we should almost always be hitting for him.
It’s amazing that we have to look back all the way to the 4-game MFY series two months ago, to find games that suggest how Cora might manage in a critical situation.I think all 3 catchers are pretty much a given to make the roster.