Playoff Fear Factor

tims4wins · Dec 31, 2017

Ravens: been there. Ferocious D. Cool as a cucumber QB. Oh wait LOLOLOLOLOL

DeadlySplitter · Dec 31, 2017

Jags are the only team that could beat us in AFC. But Bortles may be regressing in front of our eyes and they could be another Houston from last year, so we’ll see.

Any team with a seed from 2-5 in NFC would likely be stiff competition in the Super Bowl.

tims4wins · Dec 31, 2017

Best scenario possible for the Steelers is to play Jacksonville again IMO. Otherwise I think they are going down in the divisional

johnmd20 · Dec 31, 2017

DeadlySplitter said:
Jags are the only team that could beat us in AFC. But Bortles may be regressing in front of our eyes and they could be another Houston from last year, so we’ll see.

Any team with a seed from 2-5 in NFC would likely be stiff competition in the Super Bowl.

That looks like a really cocky statement.

Oppo · Dec 31, 2017

Min
KC
Jax
Pit
LA
NO
Car
Atl
Buf
Phi
Ten

pokey_reese · Dec 31, 2017

While it certainly helps to have beaten them this year, I still think that I am more afraid of the Steelers than the Jags. Partially because of the Bortles effect, but also because the Jags are one of the few teams to have played a softer schedule than the Pats this year, and they are certainly backing into the playoffs after losing the the 49ers and Titans in the last two weeks. I think that A. Brown will be pretty healthy by the AFCCG, and that JuJu and Bryant match up well against our secondary, while there isn't much in the Jags passing game that scares me. I think that the Pats are the best team in the AFC, and that we should be able to beat PIT at home, but I would still give us better odds against anyone else.

KC has a sneaky fear factor for me as well, after their strange season: Win 5 in a row out of the gate, then lose 6 out of 7, then win four in a row to finish? I don't know why the offense disappeared in the middle there, but they averaged about 29 points over their last five games.

DJnVa · Dec 31, 2017

We're Patriots fans, we talk ourselves into any team being a threat.

Marbleheader · Dec 31, 2017

1. MIN
2. PIT
3. LAR
4. JAC
5. CAR
6. PHI
7. NO
8. ATL
9. KC
10. TEN
11. BUF

Rico Guapo · Dec 31, 2017

Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Pittsburgh.

The rest of the AFC playoff teams are fatally flawed in one way or another.

NFC Side, Saints.

DourDoerr · Dec 31, 2017

One possible factor in favor of the Pats in a Jax match-up would be the Jags are a Florida team and might be coming to a frigid Gillette. Not everyone plays well in the cold. Brady has been an exception.

tims4wins · Dec 31, 2017

Pats are gonna face KC again for better or for worse

DeadlySplitter · Dec 31, 2017

johnmd20 said:
That looks like a really cocky statement.

It is. But we saw what PIT did last championship game with a gimpy or worse AB and Bell - lose 36-9, minus garbage time. We’re in their heads more than ever. They played a near-perfect game at Heinz against us and still lost. If we need to in the 4th their defense can be torched somewhere, somehow.

KC torched us but Smith has regressed heavily. A lot of that was miscommunications on defense that we’ve cleaned up. Also their defense has been ravaged by injury.

TEN/BUF have zero chance.

Old Fart Tree · Dec 31, 2017

Jags and KC

koufax32 · Dec 31, 2017

JAX:
Offense is not a big worry. But it would be a “first team to 20” game. Defense has the tools to beat NE by wreaking havoc with only four rushers.

PIT:
Offense can be explosive, but BR is a mediocre QB. Defense can be had because I’m not convinced they can consistently get to Brady without blitzing.

KC:
Offense is obviously explosive against our D. Even with the brain farts taken away I think they can still put up 30+ on NE. Good news is that the defense can be had as they’ve been terrible at creating pressure on QB’s.

BUF and TEN don’t scare me at all.

johnmd20 · Dec 31, 2017

DeadlySplitter said:
It is. But we saw what PIT did last championship game with a gimpy or worse AB and Bell - lose 36-9, minus garbage time. We’re in their heads more than ever. They played a near-perfect game at Heinz against us and still lost. If we need to in the 4th their defense can be torched somewhere, somehow.

KC torched us but Smith has regressed heavily. A lot of that was miscommunications on defense that we’ve cleaned up. Also their defense has been ravaged by injury.

TEN/BUF have zero chance.

Alex Smith led the NFL this season in passer rating. Regressed where?

kelpapa · Jan 1, 2018

DeadlySplitter said:
Jags are the only team that could beat us in AFC. But Bortles may be regressing in front of our eyes and they could be another Houston from last year, so we’ll see.

Any team with a seed from 2-5 in NFC would likely be stiff competition in the Super Bowl.

The Steelers absolutely can beat the patriots.
If Jesse James hangs on to that ball as he goes across the goal line, the patriots lose. That's without Antonio Brown. How can you not be concerned about playing bell and brown?

DeadlySplitter · Jan 1, 2018

Because frankly it's at Foxboro. And Tomlin showed how inferior he was at a coach on that whole James series.

Pittsburgh probably does have the most talented roster in the AFC. But our coaching is that much better than theirs.

E5 Yaz · Jan 1, 2018

I wonder if Globe sports headlines are written by certain SoSH posters:

Patriots don’t appear ready to make a long playoff run, do they?

Patriots win, but offense is heading in wrong direction
The Patriots look like a JV offense without Chris Hogan, Rex Burkhead, and James White.

Kliq · Jan 1, 2018

Pittsburgh was very close to beating us earlier this season and if Brown comes back I think they are the biggest threat, even if the track record indicates the Pats own Pittsburgh at home. The other AFC teams just don't threaten me that much.

I'm surprised Minnesota is at the top of some peoples' list. There defense is excellent but man, would I love to play Case Keenum in the Super Bowl.

SumnerH · Jan 1, 2018

DrewDawg said:
We're Patriots fans, we talk ourselves into any team being a threat.

It's the NFL, they are. Not 3 weeks ago we lost to the Dolphins.

The Pats are certainly big favorites over every AFC team but Pitt and Jax. But even if we were 4-1 favorites in all 3 games, it's still essentially a coin flip that we lose at least one (and one eliminates the rest). We've been pretty spoiled by having great teams with some lucky breaks, but 2007 should make it clear that no matter how good a team you are, you can lose any game. Especially in the playoffs.

E5 Yaz · Jan 1, 2018

The Chiefs are returning to the roster that dominated New England on opening weekend, and if there is any coach remaining in this playoff race who can take out Belichick at home, it’s Andy Reid.

https://www.si.com/nfl/2017/12/31/afc-playoffs-patriots-steelers-jaguars-chiefs-titans-bills

Captaincoop · Jan 1, 2018

KC is the only team that would come into Foxboro with the confidence that it can win there. That's the one team I'd prefer the Pats avoid.

wiffleballhero · Jan 1, 2018

Minn.

After the Wentz-less Eagles go down they get to have the truly unique playoff HFA that includes the Super Bowl.

Lose Remerswaal · Jan 1, 2018

Pittsburgh, because their whining could cause the Pats to collectively vomit and lose focus.

NJ_Sox_Fan · Jan 1, 2018

In the AFC? No one. IMO Patriots will be in the super bowl again. Steelers would be tough but Pats seem to always win that one.

NFC? Maybe the Rams? No Wentz means the Eagles are going nowhere. Vikings aren't winning with Keenum. The Saints with Brees and Kamara are a little scary but their D stinks.

Maybe I'm just used to them winning but I don't see a team left that's scary. Doesn't guarantee a W, but I just think with the injury to Wentz and Bradford the NFC scariest teams aren't scary anymore.

Boston Brawler · Jan 1, 2018

PIT

KC

MIN

CAR

Not too concerned about the other teams.

I think PIT, if Brown is healthy, would be the biggest threat.

Ed Hillel · Jan 1, 2018

E5 Yaz said:
https://www.si.com/nfl/2017/12/31/afc-playoffs-patriots-steelers-jaguars-chiefs-titans-bills

It’s amazing to me that Peter King doesn’t know how playoff seedings work in the NFL (he says Pitt plays winner of Jax-Buffalo, as though it’s a set bracket). I mean how is that possible? I also completely disagree with Pitt having the “easiest road,” but at least that part is subjective.

As for me, I’m not afraid of any team left. Sure, the Pats could easily lose on any given Sunday, but this team has been mostly winning during Brady’s worst stretch in years and they’re probably going to get some key pieces back as well. And with 5 SB, I think we’re kinda playing with house money at this point. Time to sit back and enjoy the ride.

PedroKsBambino · Jan 1, 2018

Ed Hillel said:
It’s amazing to me that Peter King doesn’t know how playoff seedings work in the NFL (he says Pitt plays winner of Jax-Buffalo, as though it’s a set bracket). I mean how is that possible? I also completely disagree with Pitt having the “easiest road,” but at least that part is subjective.

As for me, I’m not afraid of any team left. Sure, the Pats could easily lose on any given Sunday, but this team has been mostly winning during Brady’s worst stretch in years and they’re probably going to get some key pieces back as well. And with 5 SB, I think we’re kinda playing with house money at this point. Time to sit back and enjoy the ride.

I don’t think that’s King, it’s Conor Orr, one of the low-cost people brought in when they cut costs (Bedard to Conor Orr? Holy downgrade Batman!)

That article is atrocious, though

grsharky7 · Jan 1, 2018

Pittsburgh- I know the history and the amount of real estate the Pats have in their heads, however they played them tough a few weeks ago. They will have Haden back for the playoffs and they might be able to use him in some capacity with Gronk. Brown could also be back for that game, and reasonably healthy.

Jacksonville- Blake Bortles isn't scary at all, however they have a power running game that can chew up clock. The defense can bring pressure without the blitz and they can get to Brady. Coming north to Foxboro could be a challenge for them though with the cold temperatures.

KC-Just because of that opening night demolishing. They had their way with the Pats once they got going. I still wonder if the Gronk TD was upheld though, would they have folded? That gave them new life and they went with it and got the W.

TheoShmeo · Jan 1, 2018

wiffleballhero said:
Minn.

After the Wentz-less Eagles go down they get to have the truly unique playoff HFA that includes the Super Bowl.

This is where I'm at. No one in the AFC scares me if the Pats get back Branch, Van Noy (fully healthy), Hogan and Burkhard. Mitchell would also help. With their full complement of players, especially on offense, none of the five teams should be able to win in Foxboro.

But the notion of playing a home team in the SB concerns me. One of the Pats' advantages with games overseas and in SBs is that they handle all the distractions so well and the core has experience with it. Minny being able to stay at home would blunt that somewhat. Never mind that the crowd would be heavier in favor of the Vikings. That is not a huge thing in my book as the crowd in Jax was decidedly pro-Eagles. But it's still an advantage.

CantKeepmedown · Jan 1, 2018

I'd much prefer the Bills or Titans win, because a playoff matchup with KC is a bit scary, IMO. They obviously aren't concerned about coming into Foxborough. They hung tough last playoff game and we all remember what happened opening night. They have the playmakers (although Berry being out would help a ton).

Other than that, I think Pittsburgh for sure should cause concern. It'll just be nice to, once again, be totally relaxed next weekend while watching some good (hopefully) football.

loshjott · Jan 1, 2018

I think the Vikings playing a SB at home would be a huge distraction for them. I know they’d keep to the usual SB week routine of going to a hotel and all that, but not having the typical separation from most family, friends, and hangers on would be a different experience. I’ve read numerous quotes from pro athletes saying distractions are fewer on the road.

BaseballJones · Jan 1, 2018

It's the playoffs. Every team scares me. Some more than others of course. But in a one-and-done situation, all it takes is one bad performance, one ugly turnover, one bad bounce of the ball, and your season is done. During this amazing run, the Patriots have lost to the following teams in the playoffs:

- Jake Plummer-led Denver
- Peyton and Indy at Indy (no shame there)
- NYG twice (yuck)
- Joe Flacco and Baltimore twice (ugly games too)
- The freaking Mark Sanchez-led New York Jets that they pummeled 45-3 just a few weeks before
- Peyton and Denver

Some not-so-great teams in there that have knocked the Patriots out of the playoffs. Three of those games were home too: Baltimore twice and the Jets.

So let's not pretend that Tyrod Taylor COULDN'T come into Foxboro and win a single game. He could. So could Alex Smith or Blake Bortles.

That said, my fear factor is:

1. Pittsburgh. I know they don't do well in Foxboro but still. Tons of talent.

2. KC. Not as good as they were at the start of the year, but they seem to be back on track. Last 5 weeks they've scored 31, 26, 30, 29, and 27 points (28.6 per game). The good news is that their defense hasn't been nearly as good on the road as it is at home. Last 5 games, they've allowed just 13.7 points a game at home, but 31.0 points a game on the road - and those games were at the Jets and at Denver, two teams with really bad offenses (Jets #24 in points, Denver #27). So I think the Pats could score on them. Still, they've beaten the Pats twice in the past 3 seasons, and Reid can be creative offensively.

3. Jax. That defense and if Fournette has a big game, could be very problematic.

4. Ten and Buf. Neither is particularly frightening but as I said above, I'm afraid of EVERYONE.

In the NFC I worry about all of them, though by the time the Pats get to face them, it will be the Super Bowl so it's gravy. But of the NFC teams here's how I'd rank them:

1. Carolina. The Pats have lost to them the last two times they've played them. Cam gives them trouble. Just don't love the matchup for some reason.

2. New Orleans. Brees is a SB-winning QB playing at a high level.

3. Rams. Great back, great defense with a monster DL, and a QB playing really well.

4. Minnesota. Tremendous defense, but the QB situation doesn't really scare me.

5. Atlanta. Revenge, and they still have a ton of talent.

6. Philly. Terrific all around team but with Wentz out, they're not going to be in the SB anyway so no sense worrying about them.

tims4wins · Jan 1, 2018

They can only play one of Pittsburgh or Jacksonville, and that would be at home for the AFC Championship - it is supposed to be hard at that point. So, whatever. Ditto the Super Bowl - it's the Super Bowl - I'll take my chances against anyone.

So this really comes down to the divisional round for me. My preference of opponent in order would be:
1. Bills
2. Titans
(big gap)
3. KC

Could probably make an argument for either the Bills or Titans as the preferred opponent. The Bills have given us some issues despite the lopsided total scores. But Mariota and that running game could also give us some problems.

Chances are the Pats are gonna get KC, and it's not going to be easy. But at least BB will be able to dig up the week 1 tape to humble the Pats.

RG33 · Jan 1, 2018

As much as I want to say that KC scares me due to opening night, people need to remember that the Patriots went to the 4th quarter of that game with a lead. They have been exposed for what they are, an Alex Smith offense that requires giant plays to score. Their D stinks and the Patriots would handle them.

Pitt is a legitimate threat with all of the offensive weapons, and blowing that game might actually work in their favor in that they’ll feel like they were robbed and are coming back for retribution. Their D doesn’t scare me at all, but they could beat the Patriots in a shootout in Foxborough.

Tenn-Buff-Jax don’t really seem like threats to me. The JAX D is definitely for real, but they are basically Houston last year. It would take an awful lot of things to go right (2 Pats TOs resulting in points?) for them to beat the Patriots at Foxborough.

With regards to SB, I think the Minnesota D is for real (5 straight games holding teams under 10 points) and would give the Patriots a LOT of trouble. They would be the biggest challenge (coupled with the pseudo-home field advantage). The Rams and Saints would also pose problems overall, but I would think the Patriots could handle them both.

As someone said — this is all gravy — looking forward to enjoying the ride!

Morgan's Magic Snowplow · Jan 1, 2018

Pitt is easily the biggest threat in the AFC, especially if they get Brown back and he is functional. I think many posters here are way too cocky about another matchup with them. They looked like the better team for much of the previous game and they'll have Haden and maybe Brown. It'll be a war in Foxboro if it happens.

Jaguars and Chiefs are both pretty good teams and legit threats. The Chiefs have quietly won four in a row, including spanking a good Chargers team by three scores. Any given Sunday and all, but you're not going to be more confident about a playoff game than playing the Titans or Bills at home.

In the NFC, I think the Rams are the best all-around team and the biggest threat, although their chances of getting to the SB are obviously undercut by not having a bye. They've got a defense that can really rush the passer, especially up the middle, and they've got a very balanced offense. Both Minnesota and New Orleans look like very good teams to me as well.

In the end, I don't think any of these potential opponents are that good. But I'm not convinced the Patriots are that good either. Its been a year without a dominant team so it'll just come down to whoever plays their best football at the right time and catches a couple lucky bounces. Nobody has been better at getting his team to play their best games at the big moments than Bill Belichick, so I like our chances.

staz · Jan 1, 2018

At some point, you just have to call a spade a spade: Which of the 5 other teams does not have game in Foxboro at the very bottom of their playoff wish list? The old poker axiom if you can't spot the sucker it's you applies to the AFC bracket... if we can't agree who's the main obstacle, we're the main obstacle.

Toe Nash · Jan 1, 2018

Captaincoop said:
KC is the only team that would come into Foxboro with the confidence that it can win there. That's the one team I'd prefer the Pats avoid.

Can we ban the word confidence in all of these discussions? The main reason I'm glad the Ravens didn't make it is so I don't have to read people saying "They're confident, they won't be intimidated by the banners!" when the only two players who have beaten us that are still on the team are Suggs and Flacco.

These are all professionals who are all going to be pumped and well-coached. Yes intangibles matter, but there's little way to predict them, especially when so many of the teams and coaches have never actually been in the playoffs before, or are playing with a mostly entirely different set of teammates. KC could play well because they played well early on in the season, or they might not because it's really cold and they're banged up. Buffalo never beats us but they have a ton of familiarity with how we play so who knows? BaseballJones post above is a good one -- in a number of the losses, no one would have thought "oh that Mark Sanchez isn't going to be intimidated" beforehand.

I'm mostly rooting for Minnesota to lose. I think basically playing a road Super Bowl would be pretty tough.

Van Everyman · Jan 1, 2018

staz said:
At some point, you just have to call a spade a spade: Which of the 5 other teams does not have game in Foxboro at the very bottom of their playoff wish list? The old poker axiom if you can't spot the sucker it's you applies to the AFC bracket... if we can't agree who's the main obstacle, we're the main obstacle.

This is actually how I see it as well.

This year the Pats have gotten by on various guys on offense stepping up (Brady, Lewis, Gronk) at different times and a defense of playmakers that rarely jelled but had the talent to make plays when necessary. That was enough to go 13-3 but this has been one of the least consistent teams of the Brady-Belichick era.

Would anyone be shocked by a 2009- or 2010-style flop against pretty much any of these opponents (ok, any opponent other than the Bills)?

The one thing I think this team has going for them that those didn’t is they aren’t overconfident. This team knows they haven’t played near their potential and may feel they have something to prove in the postseason.

AB in DC · Jan 1, 2018

Van Everyman said:
This is actually how I see it as well.
Would anyone be shocked by a 2009- or 2010-style flop against pretty much any of these opponents (ok, any opponent other than the Bills)?

This feels more like the 2011 Pats team -- great offense, but a defense that's nowhere near Super Bowl caliber. That 2011 team got lucky in the AFCC game, but they couldn't even beat one of the worst NFC Champions in history.

johnmd20 · Jan 1, 2018

AB in DC said:
This feels more like the 2011 Pats team -- great offense, but a defense that's nowhere near Super Bowl caliber. That 2011 team got lucky in the AFCC game, but they couldn't even beat one of the worst NFC Champions in history.

Pats fan can be the worst. That horrible 2011 Pats team was literally one Welker drop from winning the super bowl. But they weren't Super Bowl Caliber?

The arrogance is stunning. The Pats yesterday won as many games as the Browns have won in the past TWENTY FOUR months.

edit - I should note, NOWHERE NEAR Super Bowl caliber. My apologies for quoting you incorrectly.

tims4wins · Jan 1, 2018

A 2010 style loss could happen. I'd be stunned at a 2009 style loss. In the end it is really hard to see Buffalo or Tennessee winning in Foxboro, but crazier things have happened. Far less of a stretch to see KC winning there again.

Honestly, I'd be pretty stunned if either Buffalo or Tennessee win in the wild card round.

johnmd20 · Jan 1, 2018

tims4wins said:
A 2010 style loss could happen. I'd be stunned at a 2009 style loss. In the end it is really hard to see Buffalo or Tennessee winning in Foxboro, but crazier things have happened. Far less of a stretch to see KC winning there again.

Honestly, I'd be pretty stunned if either Buffalo or Tennessee win in the wild card round.

It definitely could happen. The Pats should have lost to the Ravens 3 years ago. That was a miracle comeback. They should have lost to the Falcons last year. That was a bigger miracle. It's the NFL, in a one game elimination. Anything can happen, but the fact is the Pats D let up the 5th least amount of points in the NFL and over the past 12 weeks, they were FIRST in the league in points given up.

Yet, this is nowhere near Super Bowl caliber to spoiled, hot take fans.

BigJimEd · Jan 1, 2018

I don't know how anyone would be surprised if the Pats lost to Pitt, KC or Jax.

Sportsbstn · Jan 1, 2018

BigJimEd said:
I don't know how anyone would be surprised if the Pats lost to Pitt, KC or Jax.

At home in the playoffs, it’s not very hard to be surprised if they lost. Kansas City has been up and down, the Jags have bortles who can never be counted on, and the Patriots own the Steelers. It could happen, but they are a 6-7 point favorite vs any of the teams

BaseballJones · Jan 1, 2018

johnmd20 said:
It definitely could happen. The Pats should have lost to the Ravens 3 years ago. That was a miracle comeback. They should have lost to the Falcons last year. That was a bigger miracle. It's the NFL, in a one game elimination. Anything can happen, but the fact is the Pats D let up the 5th least amount of points in the NFL and over the past 12 weeks, they were FIRST in the league in points given up.

Yet, this is nowhere near Super Bowl caliber to spoiled, hot take fans.

As you can see from the Pats Defense thread, I'm pretty bullish on the D, so I can't fairly be accused of being a spoiled hot take fan.

That said, there are legitimate reasons to be concerned about the defense, even though they've done well the past 12 weeks.

Van Everyman · Jan 1, 2018

The comparisons w past Pats teams (which admittedly I started) get a little tricky because I’m not sure any of those teams had much in the way of talent on the defensive side of the ball. They’re by no means world beaters but Flowers, Branch, KVN, Gilmore, Butler, DMC, Chung, Harmon are all solid to really good players in this system. They haven’t played consistently for a variety of reasons (Gilmore new to the system, DH going down, Branch being out). But when they cohere, there isn’t any team in the NFL they can’t stop.

As I said upthread, they’ve had to rely on different guys week to week – on both sides of the ball. That may be a hidden advantage going into the playoffs. Add in improving health from some guys and they’re still really dangerous if also far less predictable than past Belichick teams. This is the first year I remember when I legitimately feel like they could win the super bowl ... or lose in the divisional round. Almost anything could happen.

Ed Hillel · Jan 1, 2018

Anyone who says this defense compares to 2011 should be required to actually go look at that 2011 roster, especially the DB and safety positions. The 2017 Pats on D are better, and I mean significantly so, in every single defensive back position down the line. And when you see McCourty as CB, let’s not forget he was all-time terrible that year before being converted to safety the next season.

Asstastic McCourty
Kyle Arrington
Sterling Moore
Nate Jones
Antuan Molden
Malcolm Williams
Out of position Chung
Sergio Brown
James Ihedigbo

I mean look at that.

johnmd20 · Jan 1, 2018

BaseballJones said:
As you can see from the Pats Defense thread, I'm pretty bullish on the D, so I can't fairly be accused of being a spoiled hot take fan.

That said, there are legitimate reasons to be concerned about the defense, even though they've done well the past 12 weeks.

There are legitimate reason to be concerned about every team left. But do you think this Pats D is nowhere near Super Bowl caliber? I assume you don't, considering your bullishness. That ridiculous verbiage just set me off. It's so wrong and entitled. It's like a Yankee fan in 2000 saying, "Our 4th starter isn't a number one starter and that's a problem."

The Pats were 13-3, have the #1 seed, and the 5th best scoring D in the league. Yet it's nowhere near super bowl caliber.

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