http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-mlb-predictions/?ex_cid=538twitter
They're considered closer to the Cubs than anyone else.
They're considered closer to the Cubs than anyone else.
How Good Are The Sox Now?
- Thread starter Rasputin
- Start date
At the end of play on August 11, the Sox were 61-52, and 3 games back in the AL East.
Since then, they've gone 24-12, and have a 3 game lead in the AL East.
Here are the games they've lost over that stretch:
4-3 to Detroit
10-5 to Detroit
4-3 in 11 innings to Tampa
2-1 to Tampa
6-3 to KC
10-4 to KC
4-3 to Tampa
1-0 to Oakland
2-1 to San Diego
3-2 to Toronto
6-3 to Baltimore
1-0 to Baltimore
So of their 12 losses, 8 are one-run games, and 10 are losses of 1 to 3 runs. In other words, they are either winning, or playing very close games.
They're really giving us our money's worth this season, for sure.
Since then, they've gone 24-12, and have a 3 game lead in the AL East.
Here are the games they've lost over that stretch:
4-3 to Detroit
10-5 to Detroit
4-3 in 11 innings to Tampa
2-1 to Tampa
6-3 to KC
10-4 to KC
4-3 to Tampa
1-0 to Oakland
2-1 to San Diego
3-2 to Toronto
6-3 to Baltimore
1-0 to Baltimore
So of their 12 losses, 8 are one-run games, and 10 are losses of 1 to 3 runs. In other words, they are either winning, or playing very close games.
They're really giving us our money's worth this season, for sure.
This series with the O's is crucial. Looking at the five possible game-result scenarios, the outcomes range from O's taking the division lead to the Sox burying the O's and all but wrapping up the division.
Series result . . . Balt . . . . . . Bos
Bal 4-0 . . . . . . . 86-67 . . . . . 85-68
Bal 3-1 . . . . . . . 85-68 . . . . . 86-67
Split 2-2 . . . . . . 84-69 . . . . . 87-66
Bos 3-1 . . . . . . 83-70 . . . . . 88-65
Bos 4-0 . . . . . . 82-71 . . . . . 89-64
Buck will be throwing everything he has into winning three games - a split leaves the O's still 3 back with only 9 to play.
Series result . . . Balt . . . . . . Bos
Bal 4-0 . . . . . . . 86-67 . . . . . 85-68
Bal 3-1 . . . . . . . 85-68 . . . . . 86-67
Split 2-2 . . . . . . 84-69 . . . . . 87-66
Bos 3-1 . . . . . . 83-70 . . . . . 88-65
Bos 4-0 . . . . . . 82-71 . . . . . 89-64
Buck will be throwing everything he has into winning three games - a split leaves the O's still 3 back with only 9 to play.
Yep, and tonight is huge. Grab that first one and you still come out ahead. Buck can go into Genius panic mode.
Any kind of series win basically steps on the Orioles throats. It would be almost impossible to blow that lead with so few games left.
I want no part of the O's in the post-season too. Their starting pitching looks dangerous in a 5 game series, and their pen is killer. I'd love to see a sweep and help Seattle sneak in instead.
In theory the O's are the worst of the contenders hitting against lefties which means the Sox rotation should give them fits. In practice it hasn't always worked out that way...
Add to that a week in which three starters melted down early and they won all three games. Only Buchholz turned in a decent start in the Yankee series. Otherwise it's been the bullpen picking up the team, and I'll toss a bone to Farrell for his quick hooks on Pomeranz and Edro being the right moves.
It's unlikely the Sox would see the O's in a 5 game series. One of them would have to catch Texas for that to happen. Sox are 3 back and the O's 6 back of Texas. Who has a ridiculous remaining schedule (LAA, OAK, MIL, TB) left and should lock up the best record.
For the Sox' remaining games if rotations play out as they are currently aligned the matchups would be as follows:
@ Bal 4 games
Porcello @ Bundy: Bos 0-2 v Bal when Porcello starts, 1-1 vs Bundy
ERod @ Gausman: Bos 2-1 v Bal when ERod starts, 2-1 vs Gausman
Buchholz @ Gallardo: Bos 0-1 v Bal when Buchholz starts, 1-1 vs Gallardo
Price @ Jimenez: Bos 2-2 v Bal when Price starts, 1-1 vs Jimenez
@ TBR 3 games
Pomeranz @ Archer: Bos 0-2 v TBR when Pomeranz starts, 4-0 vs Archer
Porcello @ Andriese: Bos 4-1 v TBR when Porcello starts, 1-1 vs Andriese
ERod @ Odorizzi: Bos 0-1 v TBR when ERod starts, 1-3 vs Odorizzi
@ NYY 3 games
Buchholz @ Cessa: Bos 1-0 vs NYY when Buchholz starts, 1-0 vs Cessa
Price @ Mitchell: Bos 2-2 v NYY when Price starts, 1-0 vs Mitchell
Pomeranz @ Sabathia: Bos 2-1 v NYY when Pomeranz starts, 2-0 vs Sabathia
v TOR 3 games
Porcello v Liriano: Bos 3-1 v Tor when Porcello starts, haven't faced Liriano this year but are 4-2 all-time
ERod v Stroman: Bos 0-2 v Tor when ERod starts, 2-1 vs Stroman
Buchholz v Estrada: Bos 1-1 v Tor when Buchholz starts, 2-2 vs Estrada
What does that mean? Nothing much really, but it sums to 19-11 this year vs the likely opposing starters (11 righties and 2 lefties) and the Sox starters are an aggregate 17-17 vs the teams they're facing.
@ Bal 4 games
Porcello @ Bundy: Bos 0-2 v Bal when Porcello starts, 1-1 vs Bundy
ERod @ Gausman: Bos 2-1 v Bal when ERod starts, 2-1 vs Gausman
Buchholz @ Gallardo: Bos 0-1 v Bal when Buchholz starts, 1-1 vs Gallardo
Price @ Jimenez: Bos 2-2 v Bal when Price starts, 1-1 vs Jimenez
@ TBR 3 games
Pomeranz @ Archer: Bos 0-2 v TBR when Pomeranz starts, 4-0 vs Archer
Porcello @ Andriese: Bos 4-1 v TBR when Porcello starts, 1-1 vs Andriese
ERod @ Odorizzi: Bos 0-1 v TBR when ERod starts, 1-3 vs Odorizzi
@ NYY 3 games
Buchholz @ Cessa: Bos 1-0 vs NYY when Buchholz starts, 1-0 vs Cessa
Price @ Mitchell: Bos 2-2 v NYY when Price starts, 1-0 vs Mitchell
Pomeranz @ Sabathia: Bos 2-1 v NYY when Pomeranz starts, 2-0 vs Sabathia
v TOR 3 games
Porcello v Liriano: Bos 3-1 v Tor when Porcello starts, haven't faced Liriano this year but are 4-2 all-time
ERod v Stroman: Bos 0-2 v Tor when ERod starts, 2-1 vs Stroman
Buchholz v Estrada: Bos 1-1 v Tor when Buchholz starts, 2-2 vs Estrada
What does that mean? Nothing much really, but it sums to 19-11 this year vs the likely opposing starters (11 righties and 2 lefties) and the Sox starters are an aggregate 17-17 vs the teams they're facing.
I like that rotation breakdown as it leaves Price for game 1 of the postseason, even if it's the WC game, and then there's enough time to get Porcello to start the next game. But I expect to see Pomeranz skipped soon, based on his last two starts.
Boston's actually 2 1/2 back of Texas which means if they go 8-5 in the above games (my baseline assumption), they would tie Texas if the Rangers go 5-7. In that case Texas would still get the #1 seed unless 3 of their 5 wins were a sweep of Mil since otherwise they'd have a better intraleague record than Boston (i.e. Texas would need to go 3-0 vs Mil and 2-7 vs LAA, Oak and TB). Otherwise the Sox would have to pass Texas outright (e.g. Bos 8-5 / Tex 4-8 or Bos 9-4 / Tex 5-7).
As Broda said that's highly unlikely, though they are only 8-8 vs each of LAA and Oak this year and 1-2 vs TB.
edit: using my proprietary black box I give Boston a 9% chance of taking the #1 seed from Texas if they (the Sox) go 8-5 and a 22% chance if they go 9-4
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There's an off day on the 26th so the most likely place to skip his start would be his final time out vs NY. That would put Porcello in the finale in the Bronx and ERod and Buchholz for the 1st two games of the final home series. Then, depending on whether Game162 is critical or meaningless, Price could either start the finale or (hopefully more likely) Pomeranz or Wright (or both) could get some work in.
Gotta win the first and last games of this series with those pitching matchups. ERod vs Gausman is a big advantage for the O's and the 3rd game could go any direction...maybe a slugfest, though Good Clay should be able to beat Gallardo...but counting on Good Clay is dicey.
Tonight feels like a big game though because losing tonight with those pitching matchups in the next two wouldn't give a fuzzy feeling at all.
Tonight feels like a big game though because losing tonight with those pitching matchups in the next two wouldn't give a fuzzy feeling at all.
Tonight is the biggest game of Rick Porcello's career. If he shows up like he has so often this season and the Sox take game one he's going to be at 21 wins on a team surging to end the season with a division win, likely becoming the clear favorite for the Cy Young (how crazy is that to type following last year?)
The O's might pull Gallardo out of their current 6-man rotation as, according to MLB.com, they've announced Tillman for Thursday's game and 'TBD' for Wednesday. I would think TBD would most likely be Jimenez as he's been more consistent than Gallardo lately.
The Sox have faced Tillman once this year, losing 3-2 on Jun 14 at Fenway as Tillman pitched 7 innings and surrendered 5 hits and 2 walks with JBJ's solo HR in the 7th the only run allowed. Machado and Schoop went deep for the O's in that game as Price went 8 innings and struck out 11 but lost.
A playoff start isn't inherently more important to a player, or even a team. He was the #4 starter on the Tigers and as such only pulled two starts all playoffs. Tonight he has a real chance to make a case for the Cy Young while getting his team one step closer to a playoff bid where he will be at worst the #2 starter. A strong start tonight all but guarantees him more important starts than his 2011 playoff outings in the near future.
Rick Porcello in 2011 was a mediocre starter on a club with three tangibly better options who had allowed the series to go 2-1 against them. No one expected him to have a dominant performance and at no point in 2011 did anyone, even Tigers fans, consider Porcello the guy who stops a skid.
In 2016 Rick Porcello is neck and neck with Corey Kluber for the Cy Young award, has been the ace of a team featuring David Price and a knuckleballer who was pitching like prime years R.A. Dickey before hurting his shoulder, and gets the first start of a four game series on the road against the strongest division rival who would be on the Sox heels with a series win.
The importance for Porcello depends on how important Porcello is.
This is moronic. An ALCS start >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> a September start no matter what the circumstances. Down 2-1 ALCS start vs. tonight simply isn't close. Take the stupid elsewhere.
I'm not one much for the word police, but that one bothers me quite a bit and isn't needed. Try harder to make your very valid point.
It's player dependent. Big games in September can mean a big pay day in December. Of course, Porcello already got his, so it's moot anyway.
For a franchise or fans? Sure. But not for a player. Rick Porcello might have just clinched a Cy Young. Now maybe Rick is a real team first dude who would trade a Cy for a WS ring, but even then as the fourth starter on a club already down 2-1 in the ALCS as his next best comp that really isn't something he has been as close to as a Cy Young is now.
Beyond that, with this win the math starts getting tough for Baltimore regarding the division. A division win led by Porcello's pitching is more important than a single playoff win, don't over-value the micro-season that is the MLB playoffs. Great players did great things before we convinced ourselves that seven games in October (November now) meant more than the 162 games from spring to fall.
Lastly, Porcello now gets to make more playoff starts as the actual ace of his team making them more important than starts as the winner of the 4/5 bullpen demotion contest. The future value earned today is huge.
This game will get surpassed in just a few weeks but prior to 2016 Rick Porcello was a mid-rotation guy. He is now on the verge of winning the Cy Young and if he does tonight will be referenced as a key part of his case for it. His entire career will be remembered differently because of this. Can't say that for a playoff game in 2011 when everyone expected nothing but mediocrity.
After beating the O's tonight, FG odds go to 99.9% for playoffs, 92.5 for the division, 19.3 for the WS. Big win. But hell, Yanks' odds of winning the Thursday game were 99% at the beginning of the 9th, so I take nothing for granted until the division is clinched.
The Sox will, shall I say, "soft clinch" the division with one more win against the Orioles. That is to say if they win tomorrow their division lead will be greater than half the magic number in the division (it went to 4 and 8, respectively after tonight). Basically, it will take a bit of a collapse to lose the division at that point. They certainly got themselves into a great position with the win tonight, obviously. The Blue Jays could certainly continue to make things interesting if they go on a run prior to the final weekend.
Holy shit, when you fire up the hyperbole train you just go full steam ahead, don't you?
Magic Number is 9. Eight clinches a division tie, 9 clinches a win. And the "soft clinch" mentioned only works if the Blue Jays also lose.
Keep the foot on the gas!
The best part is that if only home games counted, the Sox would be in second place, 2.5 games behind Baltimore and just a game and a half ahead of the Yankees. We are where we are because we've been superb on the road. Hopefully we can keep it up for one more week.Pretty good. Hard to look at this and feel bad.
I’ll be Debbie Downer and play the Karma Kard here. Here’s a list of the best seven Red Sox regular season records in the John Henry era:
2004 98-64
2013 97-65
2007 96-66
2003 95-67
2005 95-67
2008 95-67
2009 95-67
I’ll feel Karma is on the side of the Red Sox if they win 96 games, as recent history indicates a 95 win season does not lead to a World Series victory. That means 10-2 over the last dozen games. Cub Carma is strong this year, and it will take a big effort by the Sox to overcome it.
2004 98-64
2013 97-65
2007 96-66
2003 95-67
2005 95-67
2008 95-67
2009 95-67
I’ll feel Karma is on the side of the Red Sox if they win 96 games, as recent history indicates a 95 win season does not lead to a World Series victory. That means 10-2 over the last dozen games. Cub Carma is strong this year, and it will take a big effort by the Sox to overcome it.
Just curious, which of the two games to you think Porcello would have rather won? Last night's game where win or lose the Sox are still in the driver's seat to win the division and Porcello STILL gets a couple of more starts to chase individual awards or the one where his team can tie the ALCS at 2 games a piece and put his team in a better position for a World Series appearance or trail 3 games to 1 and be on the brink of elimination?
For a big chunk of that time they had the pathetic pre-Buck O's and the poor Rays teams that they embarrassed over that term. Through 2009, for example, they were 163-95 vs those teams, a .632 winning percentage. The Jays were pseudo competitive but the obvious juggernaut was the Yankees. It was somewhat similar to playing in the NL West or Central the past few years when the Cards and Pirates were good and the rest sucked.
Buck has had his way since taking over, and the Maddon era Rays gave them fits at times after then, but those records were certainly padded by having a dreadful division.
This particular team would probably win 97+ games in the NL West.
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The playoffs need to happen to decide which karma is more powerful. Plus, there are entertainment and financial considerations.
It makes you wonder what would have happened in 2010 if not for that disastrous NL West trip where Pedroia and Clay got hurt...
Porcello strikes me a s a pretty team oriented guy, so I'm sure he'd take the ALCS win. But the importance for his career isn't determined by his preference to win. A lot of great players in a multitude of sports claim that they'd gladly trade personal accomplishments for team championships but the reality is that history tracks major accomplishments period. Being one of the 25 is a big deal around here but how many Sox fans who grew up with the late 90's/early 00's teams have OCab on their all-time favorites list versus Nomar?
To put it another way: Did Ted Williams never have a single moment in his career as substantial or meaningful as Joe DiMaggio just because DiMaggio's teams won 10 pennants and 9 World Series? Who had the more substantial baseball legacy? I'd take Williams and we're talking multi-MVP winner v. multi-MVP winner here, not 4th starter (what Porcello was) v. potential Cy Young winner (what he is now).
The post-season is given artificial value in all sports, but in baseball it is especially hypocritical. We're taking 162 games and reducing it to a 5 game series followed by two seven game series stretched out over an artificially long period of time. Sandy Leon has been the best hitting catcher in all of baseball for a longer period than that. Jackie Bradley had a hit streak this spring longer than that. In a sport where statistical analysis has taught us to not overstate the merit of a small sample size here we are overstating the value of a contrived and cherry picked sample originally concocted to manufacture drama.
I know ballplayers can be selfish, but don't all of them want to go deep into the post season? I would think any starting pitcher gives up a regular season start so they can be the first (and potentially last) starter in a post season series.
Yeah, but all value in sports is artificial, in the sense that there are arbitrary constraints placed upon performance. Which is the entire point of sport (and games, generally). There's a reason we don't go to our local gym and "root" for the guy who can put out the maximum sustained wattage on a stationary bike.
Look at it this way - Trout's been in one post season (.600 OPS). You think he'd want to keep on going as he is, or would he take a ding on his historical numbers for a chance to shine on the big stage? Perhaps he's a guy who is just insulated and focused on perfecting his own process. But most players are social animals.
And with that in mind, I'll share my favorite poem on Ted Williams:
Masterful
They say you can’t think and hit at the same time,
but they’re wrong: you think with your body, and the whole
wave of impact surges patiently through you
into your wrists, into the bat, and meets the ball
as if this exact and violent tryst had been a fevered
secret for a week. The wrists “break”, as the batting
coaches like to say, but what they do is give away
their power, spend themselves, and the ball benefits.
When Ted Williams took – we should say “gave” –
batting practice, he’d stand in and chant to himself
“My name is Ted Fucking Ballgame and I’m the best
fucking hitter in baseball,” and he was, jubilantly
grim, lining them out pitch after pitch, crouching
and uncoiling from the sweet ferocity of excellence.
William Matthews