Out Out, Brief Panda: Pablo To Have Shoulder Surgery

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YTF

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The article does not specify the type of exam that Andrews could not do but almost surely it means physical exam--range of motion and strength testing etc.
IANAD, but I would think that's exactly what it means. He's already had an MRI so it's not like they can't get pictures of the affected area. Dr Andrews probably has a battery of tests he likes to run and the swelling and inflammation makes them difficult to perform.
Agreed and that's the mystery to me. Also IANAD, but unless he's in such a state that he's totally unable to move that arm and shoulder, shouldn't a decreased range of motion and strength still be measurable and an indicator as to what sort of injury? I'm extremely curious as to what develops from all of this, the type of injury and cause. The timing and handling all seems odd. I may be wrong, but didn't Sandoval express shoulder discomfort and was placed on the DL before even having an MRI, fueling speculation of an injury of convenience? Now apparently there was an MRI done that requires a second opinion, but the affected area is too sore to examine. IMO something out of the ordinary's happened here. Something that one side, the other or both want kept quiet. With everything going on, did Panda throw a nutty and somehow hurt himself? Perhaps there was some sort of altercation? I mean why not offer a reason or suspected reason for an njury that at this point can't be properly examined? Enquiring minds....
 

DaveRoberts'Shoes

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I think he has a partial-thickness rotator cuff tear - something a lot of athletes have and live with without pain, but can be a source of pain. It can be treated with rest, physical therapy and cortisone injections and may come to surgery if everything else fails. It would show up on an MRI but it's only clinically relevant if it causes pain or weakness. In this case it might really be causing him some pain, but I bet it's more of a convenient excuse for the Sox to get him out of the spotlight for a while. The whole "too painful to examine" buys them a couple more weeks as well.
 

Plympton91

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Well, not that it's relevant, but in the first 2 pages of the Price thread I see 7 posts calling the money stupid or insane, 13 unambiguously positive including you at #93, a few calling it an overpay (2) or being critical about various things (4), and then a devolution into discussing the merits of his 3-year opt-out. Certainly a more positive set of knee-jerks from SoSH, overall.

But the problem with using that as a proxy is that you can't run a team by mob rule - people might "hate" the Sandoval signing but I guarantee they would have hated starting the season with Middlebrooks or Cecchini holding down 3B for the big club, likely even more. We need to evaluate the signing in the context of the other options, and I've yet to see an argument that there was an objectively better option for the club at that point in time. That's why all the whining now sounds like monday morning quarterbacking to me.

At that point, the 3 ML-ready 3B prospects in the league were among the top 15 prospects in all of baseball (Bryant, Gallo, Franco) and clearly Theo, the Twins and Phillies were not going to make them available. Tomas was not a known quantity in MLB, so the D-backs (quite wisely, as it turns out) were not parting with Lamb - at least, I'm unable to find rumors to that effect from searching Rotoworld. Headley signed for 4 years / $13M per, aka 68% of Panda's AAV; do you really think that if SoSH were offered a choice of Panda at $19 or Headley at $13, they'd have chosen the latter? And likewise, Donaldson was traded 3 days after Sandoval signed; I'm sure we were in the bidding, but were unwilling or unable to part with what it would have taken to top the Jays' offer.

Of the top 15 3Bs by 2014 bWAR, one (Donaldson) was traded in the offseason. The rest went nowhere. We're glad we didn't trade for Rendon, or Josh Harrison. 8 were clearly unavailable (Seager, Justin Turner, Arenado, Plouffe, Longoria, Wright, Carpenter, Machado). David Wright is owed a fortune and was coming off a down year. Frazier, now of CWS, was going into his 1st year of arb with CIN and was traded a year later, but was probably not yet available. The Yankees were clearly not trading us Prado. Juan Uribe was clearly available - and could have held down a passable 3B for $6.5M last year. But he's the only real option I can surface who, in retrospect, might have worked for us as a 1-2 year bridge. The only other guys available were Headley and Sandoval.

If there was a rising cry of "WHY NOT URIBE?!" from SoSH, then I will withdraw my argument. But from what I remember reading about our 3B predicament, the discussion was dominated by criticisms of all available options - but nobody could propose any choice that a lot of people liked. It was a limited and poor set of options, and second guessing Cherington's choice to go with the best available FA seems like sour grapes more than an honest evaluation of what we could have known - and done - at the time.
All those words and still missing at least 4 viable options, plus, why even if conceding thebYankees wouldn't have traded Prado to Boston, why wouldn't the Marlins consider it? Why wasn't Cecchini and option coming off a very good second half in Pawtucket and a solid September call up? If, you know, we aren't using hindsight?
 

Bigpupp

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All those words and still missing at least 4 viable options, plus, why even if conceding thebYankees wouldn't have traded Prado to Boston, why wouldn't the Marlins consider it? Why wasn't Cecchini and option coming off a very good second half in Pawtucket and a solid September call up? If, you know, we aren't using hindsight?
Cecchini wasn't an option because he isn't a very good baseball player, 31 September at bats be damned. Say what you want about Pablo but it was much less likely that he was going to OPS 0.658 than it was that Cecchini was going to OPS 0.583 (in AAA btw).

There are plenty of 3B you can hang your hat on. Cecchini isn't one of them.
 

Plympton91

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Cecchini wasn't an option because he isn't a very good baseball player, 31 September at bats be damned. Say what you want about Pablo but it was much less likely that he was going to OPS 0.658 than it was that Cecchini was going to OPS 0.583 (in AAA btw).

There are plenty of 3B you can hang your hat on. Cecchini isn't one of them.
Or maybe Cecchini had a bad year because he was blocked. This isn't a video game. And even so, you concede one point -- there were multiple options that made much more sense than Sandoblob -- and missed my second point. Whereas PW showed that 90% of SoSH correctly called the Sandoblob disaster ex ante, we know Cecchini failed to develop based only on hindsight. In contrast, cecchini wasn't stubbornly insisting on being almost morbidly obese even before being financially set for life, wasn't in a 3 year decline offensively, and wouldn't have cost $95 million.
 

Toe Nash

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All those words and still missing at least 4 viable options, plus, why even if conceding thebYankees wouldn't have traded Prado to Boston, why wouldn't the Marlins consider it? Why wasn't Cecchini and option coming off a very good second half in Pawtucket and a solid September call up? If, you know, we aren't using hindsight?
They could have just stuck Holt there and kept looking for something better. You'd have to get another backup IF / OF but that's doable.

Holt would be serviceable (probably +3 wins compared to Panda's 2015) and they'd end up with Travis Shaw which is the same position they're in now. But with $95m more to spend elsewhere.

Maybe this is obvious, but it seems that big money teams run into problems when they feel they have to spend to fill a need, which prevents them from getting creative. It's not the worst thing in the world to have a stopgap player who you know is going to be at least decent, because it allows you to keep your options open.

I also can't help but think the Sox saw a fair bit of marketing potential in Sandoval which swayed their decision from a different solution.
 

Corleone

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Or maybe Cecchini had a bad year because he was blocked. This isn't a video game. And even so, you concede one point -- there were multiple options that made much more sense than Sandoblob -- and missed my second point. Whereas PW showed that 90% of SoSH correctly called the Sandoblob disaster ex ante, we know Cecchini failed to develop based only on hindsight. In contrast, cecchini wasn't stubbornly insisting on being almost morbidly obese even before being financially set for life, wasn't in a 3 year decline offensively, and wouldn't have cost $95 million.
 

Bigpupp

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Or maybe Cecchini had a bad year because he was blocked. This isn't a video game. And even so, you concede one point -- there were multiple options that made much more sense than Sandoblob -- and missed my second point. Whereas PW showed that 90% of SoSH correctly called the Sandoblob disaster ex ante, we know Cecchini failed to develop based only on hindsight. In contrast, cecchini wasn't stubbornly insisting on being almost morbidly obese even before being financially set for life, wasn't in a 3 year decline offensively, and wouldn't have cost $95 million.
Yeah, so I haven't been the one arguing with you about Sandoval, so you can just stop there. He was a bad signing from day one. But don't come in here trumpeting Cecchini because he might be the one person on the planet who was a worse player than Sandoval in 2015. If there are 3B that you think would have been the better, more obvious, choice then please name them. Because starting with Cecchini makes you look like a fool.

Oh, and you don't have a damn clue that Cecchini sucked because he was blocked. He sucked because he sucks and that's not hindsight.
 
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All those words and still missing at least 4 viable options, plus, why even if conceding thebYankees wouldn't have traded Prado to Boston, why wouldn't the Marlins consider it? Why wasn't Cecchini and option coming off a very good second half in Pawtucket and a solid September call up? If, you know, we aren't using hindsight?
OK, let's hear 'em. I'm tingly with anticipation of baseball enlightenment.

But Cecchini probably won't get you very far. On August 1st, 2014, he had an OPS for the season (88 AAA games) of .649 . He then ran off a .913 August, earning a call-up where he did well in 36 PAs (.813). That was on the back of a 2013 campaign he began in Salem, in which he hit extremely well in half a year, and half a year hitting well in Portland. Betting on him in the AL East in 2015, when your plan B would then be to plug in Holt there and eliminate the flexibility he provides your entire lineup (or, I guess, Hanley), would have been just as criminal GM'ing as you're accusing the Sandoval trade of being. (...and of course, would have proven so, as his 2015 season in AAA saw his contact rates and power plummet, leaving behind a .583 OPS - though you're correct we lacked that information in Nov 2014)

And the Marlins wouldn't have traded for Prado just to trade him to Boston, because they needed a viable major-league 3B too. Other teams don't exist purely for our plundering purposes, there needs to be sufficient motivation for them to be a fulcrum in a 3-way trade. They might have been willing to dump Casey McGehee on us as they upgraded, but given the relative financial strength of the Red Sox vs the Marlins, they would probably view such a proposal with reactive devaluation. And the knee problems that plagued him all of last year (to the tune of a 50 OPS+), and were visible long before 2015, would have made him a total lottery ticket prospectively.

Maybe you'd argue for assembling a handful of lottery tickets, a la our 1B/DH/RF logjam in 2002-2003, and seeing if lightning struck again. We could at least call that a strategy. But I see precious few opportunities to even have put that together. If there were obvious solutions available, they're beyond my feeble grasp, that's for sure.
 

Pilgrim

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As I recall, Aramis Ramirez, Luis Valbuena, Daniel Murphy and Kang were somewhat popular ideas.

Many people wanted a bridge to Cecchini, so consider the source, but it is true that plenty of people (correctly) considered a mediocre short term option preferable to Sandoval.
 

Heating up in the bullpen

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My dream* scenario for a May trade:

BOS: gets Choo, Ross
SDP: gets Sandoval, Owens
TEX: gets Castillo, Swihart
I know it's been about a million years in message board time since this post, but I'm just seeing it and I have to react. I don't have to, but I'm going to, because this trade proposal hasn't gotten enough love in the thread.

Texas is supposed to get Blake Swihart and Rusney Castillo for the price of getting out from under Choo's bad contract? In what bizarro universe is this a deal that makes sense to anybody but the Rangers? This is your dream scenario? (We know it's not, because you go on to say below that it's not, but... you said it right there and you could have changed it to "My not dream scenario" but you didn't.) Why does Texas have to get involved in a three-way to get rid of Pablo? Just because we're so desperate to get rid of Blake Swihart? If Texas has a bad contract - Choo - and we have a probably bad contract - Castillo - but each of those players might fit a little better on the other team, why wouldn't we just trade them straight up, instead of the Sox also throwing in one of the best, if not the best, catching prospects in MLB?

Anyway, what you have actually proposed here, if you do the math, is two separate two-team trades, not a single three-team trade. SDP gets Sandoval & Owens for Ross. TEX gets Castillo & Swihart for Choo. Listing Choo and Ross in the same "BOS: gets" line does not make this a three-team trade. Trading Sandoval & Owens for Ross is something the Sox would do in a heartbeat and the Padres should never do. Trading Swihart & Castillo for Choo is something the Rangers would do in a heartbeat and the Sox should never do.

OK, I've vented and I'm ready to move on.
 

PrometheusWakefield

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Well, not that it's relevant, but in the first 2 pages of the Price thread I see 7 posts calling the money stupid or insane, 13 unambiguously positive including you at #93, a few calling it an overpay (2) or being critical about various things (4), and then a devolution into discussing the merits of his 3-year opt-out. Certainly a more positive set of knee-jerks from SoSH, overall.

But the problem with using that as a proxy is that you can't run a team by mob rule - people might "hate" the Sandoval signing but I guarantee they would have hated starting the season with Middlebrooks or Cecchini holding down 3B for the big club, likely even more. We need to evaluate the signing in the context of the other options, and I've yet to see an argument that there was an objectively better option for the club at that point in time. That's why all the whining now sounds like monday morning quarterbacking to me.
.
Notice that most of the reasons why Sandoval has been a disaster with the Red Sox are mentioned in those two pages. He swings on pitches way out of the zone. He can't be trusted to hold up defensively due to his big fat ass. He is a temperamental personality. His offense had been in consistent decline for 4 straight years.

This guy was never all that great to begin with and he had massive red flags all over him. Signing him at that price was, therefore, a terrible option. Coming up with better options is as simple as listing all the other possible options. Headley was a better option, although not a great one. Prado even better. I'll throw out Jed Lowrie, perpetual free agent who has been a +5.5 defensive third baseman and signed for minimal contract. The perpetually underrated Luis Valbuena was traded by the Cubs to make room for Kris Bryant, I don't know what it would have taken to get him but you'd think it would be possible. Is it expecting too much brilliance for the front office to see the potential in Jung-Ho Kang, and his 3.9 WAR rookie season?

Identifying players who will be underrated and good and avoiding players who are overrated and bad is the job of a GM. "We couldn't come up with a better idea than just getting the guy who was generally considered the top FA at his position" isn't really much of a defense. That's the kind of thinking that turns big budget teams to suck.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Or maybe Cecchini had a bad year because he was blocked. This isn't a video game. And even so, you concede one point -- there were multiple options that made much more sense than Sandoblob -- and missed my second point. Whereas PW showed that 90% of SoSH correctly called the Sandoblob disaster ex ante, we know Cecchini failed to develop based only on hindsight. In contrast, cecchini wasn't stubbornly insisting on being almost morbidly obese even before being financially set for life, wasn't in a 3 year decline offensively, and wouldn't have cost $95 million.
He reason GC flamed out is because he was blocked by the Panda signing? This is what you're going with?
 

kazuneko

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Notice that most of the reasons why Sandoval has been a disaster with the Red Sox are mentioned in those two
Identifying players who will be underrated and good and avoiding players who are overrated and bad is the job of a GM. "We couldn't come up with a better idea than just getting the guy who was generally considered the top FA at his position" isn't really much of a defense. That's the kind of thinking that turns big budget teams to suck.
Yes. On the day of Sandoval's signing this seemed exactly like what it will likely be: one of the worst free agent signings in the history of baseball. The fact that it became that so quickly is somewhat surprising (not sure anyone expected Sandoval to be the worst player in baseball his first season) but fits with the Sox's recent luck with free agency. Who could they have had fill in at 3B? There were plenty of stopgap options (Murphy was available in trade, Holt would have been passable for a year, Kang would have been a coup) that could have been signed cheaply - freeing up money to focus on other needs (how much better would the team had been if they had saved $60 million and gone with Liriano in the rotation and Holt at 3b?). Let's also not forget that the signed Hanley the same week - a player who pretty clearly would been a better option at 3B than LF....
 
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Jed Zeppelin

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It's amazing how much we've been chasing this position since the (hindsight!) poor decision to let Beltre walk because we had oh so many hots for the other Adrian.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Who could they have had fill in at 3B? There were plenty of stopgap options (Murphy was available in trade, Holt would have been passable for a year, Kang would have a coup) that could have been signed cheaply - freeing up money to focus on other needs (how much better would the team had been if they had saved $60 million and gone with Liriano in the rotation and Holt at 3b?). Let's also not forget that the signed Hanley the same week - a player who pretty clearly would been a better option at 3B than LF....
This.

The Sox had internal options (Holt, Middlebrooks, Cecchini, Shaw).
The Sox signed an external option, simultaneously (Ramirez).
Other external options were available for trade (Donaldson, Murphy).
Other external options were available in free agency (Headley, Kang).

The Sox went with big sexy -- they paid the most to land the fan-favorite postseason hero and reigning World Series MVP!!! -- never-you-mind his weight issues and steadily declining production and history of getting benched in SF by Bochy and inability to control the strike zone.

The decision to sign Panda was made because of the Sox' preferences, not the limitations of the marketplace.
 

whatittakes

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The other option of course, would be to shift Bogaerts back to third and bring in a McNoodlebat shortstop. Good third basemen are hard to find, but no bat all glove shortstops aren't. Since he's matured into a solidly acceptable shortstop there's no doubt he could have handled third base duties, and I suspect he's going to move down to third base in the second half of his career anyway, the way Rico Petrocelli or A-Rod or John Valentin did, and the way they tried to salvage Nomah after his body fell apart.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
I think he's saying the other option in the fall of 2014 would have been to move Bogaerts back to third and bring in a McNoodlebat shortstop, rather than signing Panda. I don't think he's suggesting they do that now, especially since they seem to have found a competent, cost-controlled 2-way third baseman for the time being.

EDIT: To be clear, I don't think that would have been a good idea a year and a half ago either, but it certainly wouldn't have been as board-explodingly bad an idea then as it would be now, since the jury was not yet fully in on Bogaerts' ability to handle SS defensively, and he was arguably our best in-house alternative at 3B, at least before the Hanley signing.
 
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Todd Benzinger

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This.
The Sox had internal options (Holt, Middlebrooks, Cecchini, Shaw).
The Sox signed an external option, simultaneously (Ramirez).
.
This is what I thought at the time. Hanley seemed like very good 3B solution, with a possible future at 1B/DH if his 3B play was unacceptable, as Nap was in his last year and Papi was... very old. The truly strange and idiotic part of the Panda signing was that neither Panda nor HanRam made nearly as much sense elsewhere. I mean, Hanley might well have turned out to terrible defensively at 3B, but he had just played a season at SS. He was clearly no longer a passable SS, but he was a career infielder. It seemed like BC was bidding on two 3B options, and accidentally wound up with two winning bids
 

IpswichSox

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It's amazing how much we've been chasing this position since the (hindsight!) poor decision to let Beltre walk because we had oh so many hots for the other Adrian.
Not re-signing Beltre was clearly a mistake, even though we drafted Swihart with the compensation pick. If we had kept Beltre, it likely would have had the added benefit of preventing several bad follow-on decisions at third base and elsewhere. Still, honestly, I can't say that I was screaming about the necessity of re-signing Beltre in the winter of 2010, knowing the value of that pick and thinking about our stacked pipeline that would just slide in to replace him.
 

ALiveH

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at the time of the signing, Pablo's spray chart looked really good at Fenway and the thinking was he would be decent for 2-3 years before performance dropped off. I don't think anybody predicted that he would be this bad this quickly.
 

Van Everyman

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Beltre would have made a helluva shortstop.
Pretty sure that Gammons said in his ESPN column that Theo was actually planning on putting Beltre at short if he signed him and a gaggle of other guys during one of the annual "What do we do if we unload Manny and his contract" Imagination Nation festivals back in the aughts.
 

kazuneko

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It's amazing how much we've been chasing this position since the (hindsight!) poor decision to let Beltre walk because we had oh so many hots for the other Adrian.
Disastrous free agent signings tend to get all the attention, but the decision to pass on Beltre ( who was very clear about wanting to return) is at least competitive for the title of worst non-signing in Red Sox history. As measured by fWAR*, only the decision to not resign Clemens is probably worse. That said, judged by historical impact it could be argued that passing on Beltre was the bigger mistake. Clemens leaving would eventually lead to the Pedro trade, meanwhile the Beltre non-signing played a role in what has probably been the worst stretch of free agent signings in the history of baseball, and an equally horrendous stretch of poor performance at 3B**.

*Clemens contract (4 year/$40 million): 25.7 fWAR/ 6.425 annual average
Beltre contract (5 year/ $80 million) 27.3, fWAR/ 5.46 annual average
Fisk contract (5 year/ $3 million): 15.2 fWAR/ 3.04 annual average
** 5.6 fWAR from the 3B position since failing to resign Beltre. This includes a combined -.8 fWAR in the past three seasons.

EDIT: Interesting stat that came up when I was researching these numbers: The 2016 Red Sox currently have a fWAR of 1.2 from the 3B position. That matches the Red Sox combined fWAR for the past four seasons.
 
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dynomite

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Disastrous free agent signings tend to get all the attention, but the decision to pass on Beltre ( who was very clear about wanting to return) is at least competitive for the title of worst non-signing in Red Sox history. As measured by fWAR*, only the decision to not resign Clemens is probably worse. That said, judged by historical impact it could be argued that passing on Beltre was the bigger mistake. Clemens leaving would eventually lead to the Pedro trade, meanwhile the Beltre non-signing played a role in what has probably been the worst stretch of free agent signings in the history of baseball, and an equally horrendous stretch of poor performance at 3B**.

*Clemens contract (4 year/$40 million): 25.7 fWAR/ 6.425 annual average
Beltre contract (5 year/ $80 million) 27.3, fWAR/ 5.46 annual average
Fisk contract (5 year/ $3 million): 15.2 fWAR/ 3.04 annual average
** 5.6 fWAR from the 3B position since failing to resign Beltre. This includes a combined -.8 fWAR in the past three seasons.

EDIT: Interesting stat that came up when I was researching these numbers: The 2016 Red Sox currently have a fWAR of 1.2 from the 3B position. That matches the Red Sox combined fWAR for the past four seasons.
This is a fascinating post. Great work here.

On the flip side, for all of their poor signings (and non-signings) the Sox have also managed to avoid a few of what would have been disastrous re-signings, perhaps the biggest of which was:

Jason Bay contract with Mets for 2010 season (4 years/$66 million): 0.7 fWAR (and only averaged 89 games played per season in those 4 years)

And let's not forget:

Mo Vaughn contract with Angels for 1999 season (6 years/$80 million): 3.5 fWAR (and really only played 3 of those seasons: missed entire 2001 season due to injury, retired a month into 2003 season).
 

DavidTai

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This is what I thought at the time. Hanley seemed like very good 3B solution, with a possible future at 1B/DH if his 3B play was unacceptable, as Nap was in his last year and Papi was... very old. The truly strange and idiotic part of the Panda signing was that neither Panda nor HanRam made nearly as much sense elsewhere. I mean, Hanley might well have turned out to terrible defensively at 3B, but he had just played a season at SS. He was clearly no longer a passable SS, but he was a career infielder. It seemed like BC was bidding on two 3B options, and accidentally wound up with two winning bids
I seem to remember it was more like BC was bidding on Panda, and had just almost wrapped it up when Hanley went to Boston and offered to play for them -and- change positions. At the time, I think, they had only been bidding on Panda, but then Hanley fell into their laps?
 

Mighty Joe Young

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This is a fascinating post. Great work here.

On the flip side, for all of their poor signings (and non-signings) the Sox have also managed to avoid a few of what would have been disastrous re-signings, perhaps the biggest of which was:

Jason Bay contract with Mets for 2010 season (4 years/$66 million): 0.7 fWAR (and only averaged 89 games played per season in those 4 years)

And let's not forget:

Mo Vaughn contract with Angels for 1999 season (6 years/$80 million): 3.5 fWAR (and really only played 3 of those seasons: missed entire 2001 season due to injury, retired a month into 2003 season).
Also .. Damon and (gulp) Pedro were bullets dodged
 

Plympton91

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Also .. Damon and (gulp) Pedro were bullets dodged
They paid more and got less production from the people brought in to replace Pedro than the Mets got out of Pedro, even with the injury

To truly "dodge a bullet" the people you bring in need to perform too.
 

Corleone

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Lester Lackey Price CBuc would look damn good right now, as would Rizzo Pedroia XB Shaw/Beltre

I'll quote Trump, "there are a lot of stupid people making important decisions around here" end quote.
 

Adrian's Dome

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We would have paid Pedro for 4 years and gotten one year of Pedro out of it. But in 2005, we might have repeated. Would that have been worth it?
Might have repeated if Clement, his replacement, hadn't gone down in shouldery flames. Sometimes, shit just happens. Can't say definitively either way.
 

chrisfont9

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So you're saying you're in favor of them making a good deal and not a bad deal. I think we agree.

I'm actually not sure Kemp would be that bad if it were a straight 1-for-1 deal. They have basically the same remaining money and years and while Kemp is a shell of his former self, he has a shot to be better than our current LFer (as much as I like Holt). He had a 140 OPS+ in 2014 which is better than anyone but Papi hit last year and he could presumably pepper the Monster. I'd rather they give him a shot than simply cut Panda to replace him with a AAAAer.
Adding that we've all assumed the team had Hanley ticketed for DH starting next year, but maybe the 1B thing works OK and Kemp could DH?
 

Todd Benzinger

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I seem to remember it was more like BC was bidding on Panda, and had just almost wrapped it up when Hanley went to Boston and offered to play for them -and- change positions. At the time, I think, they had only been bidding on Panda, but then Hanley fell into their laps?
You are right about the sequence of events. What I was trying to get at is that BC seemingly signed two 3B at the same time for no clear reason. Some SoSHers had been arguing for Hanley as the clever play in the 3B market, and that made sense to me, and indeed seemed much preferable to Panda. But getting both made no sense.
 

Sampo Gida

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Given the likely premium, there's no real reason to assume this, and in any case, it doesn't reduce the cost against the cap.

I don't know why anyone would expect a post-surgical, seemingly food-addicted Panda will show up in camp looking like anything resembling "slimmed down."
Do you have any idea what such a premium would be? I remember Scherzer saying he paid 750K for 40 million (tax free) insurance coverage when he spurned the Tigers extension and decided to be a free agent, and he is a Pitcher at higher risk of injury. I remember thinking that was remarkably cheap.

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/max-scherzer-reveals-details-of-injury-insurance-policy-195328259.html

I believe any contract close to 100 million on an athlete not in the best physical condition would be negligent. Nobody likes to pay insurance premiums, but when something happens, it comes in handy. I'd spend 5% of what he is owed on insurance anyday. Again, I don't know what it would have cost to insure his contract, and now that it has come to light he had a similar injury in 2011, that shoulder may by be classified as a pre-existing condition and not covered, but then again, maybe not

Expectation he would be slimmed down? No. Hope maybe. There is a non-zero probability that he sees the light and realizes that if he can turn things around, he can get out of here (Boston, by increasing his trade value) , and play some baseball, and maybe there is another contract in his future
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
20,933
Maine
You are right about the sequence of events. What I was trying to get at is that BC seemingly signed two 3B at the same time for no clear reason. Some SoSHers had been arguing for Hanley as the clever play in the 3B market, and that made sense to me, and indeed seemed much preferable to Panda. But getting both made no sense.
It only made no sense to those who insisted on seeing Hanley as a 3B despite his not being one and his apparent reluctance to become one. He resisted openly when the Reyes signing necessitated it in Miami. When he and his agents approached the Red Sox, he brought up the idea of moving to the outfield, not 3B, to facilitate the deal. This even though they obviously had a glaring need at 3B (and not so much in the OF).

They signed both because they were signing a LF and a 3B, not two 3B.
 

Yelling At Clouds

Post-darwinian
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
3,444
We would have paid Pedro for 4 years and gotten one year of Pedro out of it. But in 2005, we might have repeated. Would that have been worth it?
Not relevant to the Sandoval thread, and I do apologize, but follow the logic through. Would they have traded for Beckett and Lowell after '05 in this universe? Do they win the 2007 World Series without those two? Pedro is hurt in 2006, so they probably have to find some replacement at some point - are they eventually the team who makes the Santana trade? And would that mean no more Ellsbury or Lester (the reported price at that point)? And do they win the 2013 World Series without those two?
 

grimshaw

Member
SoSH Member
May 16, 2007
4,231
Portland
Dr Thomas Gill was on EEI this afternoon and he actually brought up the Pedro contract. He talked about how making the determination about Pedro's health and whether a multi year extension would be too risky or not was his very first job as team doctor.

They were unable to get him in for a physical (agent interference most likely) prior to them making a decision and he had to base it on MRI's from two years prior. His advice was that Pedro had another year, maybe two before his rotator cuff would fray based on how his arm slot had started to drop and he was pretty close to correct. It was an easy call once the Mets offered 4 years.

Getting back to Sandoval and paraphrasing, he thought it was reaaaaally odd that they couldn't have just given him a shot to dull the pain within 10 minutes, so they could do a physical evaluation right then and there rather than an MRI. Said it was common for agents to have a big influence on how quickly or slowly they wanted their clients checked out. In this case it could be a few weeks.
 

kazuneko

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 10, 2006
2,845
Honolulu HI
It only made no sense to those who insisted on seeing Hanley as a 3B despite his not being one and his apparent reluctance to become one. He resisted openly when the Reyes signing necessitated it in Miami. When he and his agents approached the Red Sox, he brought up the idea of moving to the outfield, not 3B, to facilitate the deal. This even though they obviously had a glaring need at 3B (and not so much in the OF).

They signed both because they were signing a LF and a 3B, not two 3B.
Even prior to signing with the Sox there were multiple reports (the link below is to a story written by Jon Heyman at the time) that Hanley and his agent were advertising his willingness to "play wherever there is a need". The assumption (prior to his signing) was that this most likely meant a move to 3b, though these stories also indicated he might consider 1b or "even a corner outfield position".
So yeah, it's just false to claim that as a free agent Hanley indicated he had any issue at all with shifting to 3b.

http://mweb.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24788109/shortstop-star-hanley-is-telling-teams-hed-play-3b-or-even-elsewhere
 

Buzzkill Pauley

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 30, 2006
10,569
Not relevant to the Sandoval thread, and I do apologize, but follow the logic through. Would they have traded for Beckett and Lowell after '05 in this universe? Do they win the 2007 World Series without those two? Pedro is hurt in 2006, so they probably have to find some replacement at some point - are they eventually the team who makes the Santana trade? And would that mean no more Ellsbury or Lester (the reported price at that point)? And do they win the 2013 World Series without those two?
Following the logic through, it's quite likely that a Ramirez-Ortiz-Ramirez heart of the order would have been sufficient offensive punch to weather the downgrade from Beckett to Sanchez. And considering how those three combined with Youkilis to hit 279 XBH in 2006 (144 2B, 16 3B, 119 HR), 278 XBH in 2007 (168 2B, 10 3B, 100 HR), and 277 XBH in 2008 (143 2B, 12 3B, 122 HR) it's possible that we'd be talking Yankee-style dynasty.

Ah well, c'est la vie.
 

MiracleOfO2704

not AWOL
SoSH Member
Jul 12, 2005
9,557
The Island
Lester Lackey Price CBuc would look damn good right now, as would Rizzo Pedroia XB Shaw/Beltre

I'll quote Trump, "there are a lot of stupid people making important decisions around here" end quote.
Okay, forgetting the whole issue you seem to have with basic grammar and sentence structure, I want to know how you build the remainder of the roster with the probable huge contracts needed to have Lester, Lackey, Price, Beltre, AND Pedroia while building an outfield, a bench, and a bullpen AND keeping the payroll under $200 million AND allowing for a minor league system to develop potential major league players to replace the aging players from that core. MLB GMs don't build teams like a fantasy roster, and they don't concern themselves with how things look in 2016 in hindsight. Cherington made some bad, bad moves, but asking him to have the clairvoyance to hold on to everyone is ridiculous beyond fiction, even if he could do so without breaking the bank or turning some of those contracts into albatrosses by sheer logic.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

Homeland Security
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2005
19,615
Portsmouth, NH
Following the logic through, it's quite likely that a Ramirez-Ortiz-Ramirez heart of the order would have been sufficient offensive punch to weather the downgrade from Beckett to Sanchez. And considering how those three combined with Youkilis to hit 279 XBH in 2006 (144 2B, 16 3B, 119 HR), 278 XBH in 2007 (168 2B, 10 3B, 100 HR), and 277 XBH in 2008 (143 2B, 12 3B, 122 HR) it's possible that we'd be talking Yankee-style dynasty.

Ah well, c'est la vie.
That heart of the order would have been a lot of fun to watch, but I doubt it would have been enough to prevent the torn labrum Sanchez suffered that season.
 
Dec 21, 2015
1,410
Following the logic through, it's quite likely that a Ramirez-Ortiz-Ramirez heart of the order would have been sufficient offensive punch to weather the downgrade from Beckett to Sanchez. And considering how those three combined with Youkilis to hit 279 XBH in 2006 (144 2B, 16 3B, 119 HR), 278 XBH in 2007 (168 2B, 10 3B, 100 HR), and 277 XBH in 2008 (143 2B, 12 3B, 122 HR) it's possible that we'd be talking Yankee-style dynasty.

Ah well, c'est la vie.
I have very few regrets and might-have-beens from the Tito years, but it's my recollection that 2006 was derailed by injuries. Crisp, Nixon, Lester, Clement, Foulke, David Wells... they really piled up that year (and 2010), didn't they?

Also, Hanley bWAR by year:
2006: 4.9
2007: 4.3 (due to fielding; 145 OPS+)
2008: 6.7
2009: 7.3

and Beckett:
2006: 2.7
2007: 6.5
2008: 3.3
2009: 5.1

Maybe they don't win it in 2006 (injuries) or 2007 (rotation), but 2008 and 2009 look pretty good - we probably keep Manny and pick up his option. Mike Lowell kind of turned into a semi-pumpkin after 2007, too. Without the Beckett trade, I bet they keep Youk at 3B (3rd in MVP voting in 2008! I can't believe I forgot that), get a serviceable 1B instead, and they might have scored 1000 runs.
 

DaveRoberts'Shoes

Aaron Burr
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Nov 1, 2005
4,271
OR 12
So Pablo is going to get his shoulder scoped, per the Sox. I'd love to be in that OR to see the look on Andrews' face when he makes an incision and sweet creamy nougat comes pouring out of his shoulder...
 
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