Undervaluing Miley and likely over-estimating the likelihood of any deal with the Mariners actually happening.
Sox send Miley to Seattle for Smith (RP) and Elias (SP)
- Thread starter MakMan44
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Potential is great an all, but Miley is the only one on this list besides Price that has actually realized it. There's nobody else on this list who can be projected to give you 30(ish) starts of league average pitching. After Price and Miley you basically have 7 wildcards.
Furbush has two more years of arbitration so it's not like he's going to be much cheaper than Miley when guys like Darren O'Day are about to get 7mill per year. Obviously this is all speculation, but hopefully he wouldn't be the main piece in a deal involving a starter.
Joel Sherman @Joelsherman1 32s33 seconds ago
As @Ken_Rosenthal reported #Redsox #Mariners talking Miley. New #Mariners director of pro scouting Tom Allison drafted Miley 43 (cont)
As @Ken_Rosenthal reported #Redsox #Mariners talking Miley. New #Mariners director of pro scouting Tom Allison drafted Miley 43 (cont)
Flexibility for what though? Trading either leaves us with a hole at 3B or 1B, as well as the hole left by Miley. The only way a Miley + Hanley/Sandoval deal makes sense for us is if we're getting Kyle Seager back and we're going to go out and sign Cueto or something.
Trading Miley seems risky given his floor and reliability and the Red Sox desire to compete, and without a replacement I'm not sure I would be looking to trade him.
That said, his upside is also limited, and his abilities are kind of duplicated by Johnson and Owens. So if you can move him for some pieces that fill in the player development gap (namely pitchers that are 1-2 years from the majors) then it could make sense from an organizational standpoint. But I would be more into that if I were sold on Kelly or if Johnson wasn't coming back from injury. And, you could also wait until the ASB or next off-season to make that kind of move.
If for some reason the Red Sox were already committed to giving Joe Kelly a starting job, and Miley would be displacing Rodriguez and his options until there were injuries, you could more easily justify a trade. But I doubt they are in that position.
That said, his upside is also limited, and his abilities are kind of duplicated by Johnson and Owens. So if you can move him for some pieces that fill in the player development gap (namely pitchers that are 1-2 years from the majors) then it could make sense from an organizational standpoint. But I would be more into that if I were sold on Kelly or if Johnson wasn't coming back from injury. And, you could also wait until the ASB or next off-season to make that kind of move.
If for some reason the Red Sox were already committed to giving Joe Kelly a starting job, and Miley would be displacing Rodriguez and his options until there were injuries, you could more easily justify a trade. But I doubt they are in that position.
I realize that we're just speculating, but it's hard to see us dealing Hanley or Sandoval as part of a "Miley" trade. If multiple sources have them discussing Miley, how could they not know that the elephant in the trading room is also being discussed?? But sure, if we could take advantage of some kind of brain fart in Seattle and grab Seager for Pablo and Miley, I'd be ok with that deal.
Tim Britton @TimBritton 5s5 seconds ago
Word on the street is we’ll hear something “soon” on Miley. Of course, soon can be a frustratingly vague word, eh?
Word on the street is we’ll hear something “soon” on Miley. Of course, soon can be a frustratingly vague word, eh?
It would nice to shoot for a rotation like 2004, where the Top 5 pitchers made 157 starts. Miley would be the Arroyo of this scenario.
Remember that Dombrowski likes hard throwers. Kelly's FB averages a tick over 95; Miley's averages a tick under 91.
This worries me. I'm trying to picture what we could get back for Miley from the M's that would look like a good deal, and failing.
Dombrowski was seen passing Dipoto a tub of cream cheese. Said it was Wade's favorite. Done deal.
Jon Heyman @JonHeymanCBS 17s18 seconds ago
Miley and aro to mariners for carson smith and roenis Elias agreed to
Miley and aro to mariners for carson smith and roenis Elias agreed to
edited title.
DD is the anti-Epstein. We would have have 0985908357928375823476790287685864707890 posts between Price and Miley w/ Epstein around. With DD he's done faster than Corsi can post them here. Jesus
DD is the anti-Epstein. We would have have 0985908357928375823476790287685864707890 posts between Price and Miley w/ Epstein around. With DD he's done faster than Corsi can post them here. Jesus
I think we have better fallbacks than John Halama and Wade Miller this time, though.
The concerning thing thus far is that Miley is the only name coming up in all the twitter posts and "confirmations". I'm guessing most of us will not be all that familiar with the return, unless we're really up on the Mariners farm system.
NO!!! YESSSS!!
I have kind of a mancrush on Elias. He has a bit of Tiant in him, stylistically anyway.
I *think* Elias has one option remaining. So he slots into our SP depth, and Carson makes the bullpen pretty sick. I like it.
Miley's ceiling, and, I believe, options, meaning he can start at Pawtucket if we make it through spring training healthy. We basically traded our 6th-best starter for a guy who will be a more flexible 8th-best starter, and also a stud reliever. Awesome trade.
I agree, my conclusion was poorly worded. Seeing Miley traded for just a reliever is not commensurate with his value in my opinion. There is long term value in freeing the Red Sox of one of those contracts, however. Something like what you proposed is the only way it would make any sense. Although I do think getting rid of Hanley and the money owed to him would be a net positive.
I am against a Miley trade barring some unforeseen blockbuster for Felix Hernandez, which is unlikely.
Welp, so much for my "trading Smith just further weakens Seattle's bullpen" concerns only moments ago. I guess DiPoto will be doing a lot more wheeling and dealing this winter.
Probably makes sense to trade a lefty starter anyway. Price, Miley, Rodriguez, Owens, and Johnson are all LHP, which is fine - a good pitcher is a good pitcher - but not many teams go into the season with mostly lefty starters.
Probably makes sense to trade a lefty starter anyway. Price, Miley, Rodriguez, Owens, and Johnson are all LHP, which is fine - a good pitcher is a good pitcher - but not many teams go into the season with mostly lefty starters.
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Meant to say floor - not ceiling. He's a pitch to contact guy with weaker stuff.
Our bullpen is going to be insane next season.
Which it may have to be unless we get another starter.
Which it may have to be unless we get another starter.
I like the move. Smith is great insurance if Taz can't rebound. Elias if they get anything out of him its a bonus.
Yeah, I like Smith about as much as one can like a career reliever (he never started a game in the minors).
Elias I am really less sure about. I guess he can be stashed in Pawtucket, I don't think he is a better bet to be helpful than the other 8 guys on the list. Maybe he has some bullpen potential too though? I don't know much about him.
Elias I am really less sure about. I guess he can be stashed in Pawtucket, I don't think he is a better bet to be helpful than the other 8 guys on the list. Maybe he has some bullpen potential too though? I don't know much about him.
+1. He is solid average. Had below 4 FIP's the last four years, is under control and affordable. Remember when Dombrowski traded Fister and then used the money to sign Joe Nathan? I just hope he does not the same SP for RP swap. WAR-negating move.
Price
Buchholz
Rodriguez
Porcello
Winner of a Kelly/Owens/Elias/Johnson/Wright derby (those are my odds from best to worst)
I mean, that's a very good rotation, and if you are worried about all five of those contenders for #5, I bet you can find a cheap 5th starter on a 1-year deal.
