The unprojectable Clay Buchholz

MikeM · Apr 13, 2015

Toe Nash said:
Plus, the option is only $13m on a one-year deal -- he doesn't have to be particularly good to make that a slam dunk to pick up. 2 WAR? He's matched or (far) surpassed that 5 of the last 6 years.

I don't see it being as simplified a matter as 2 WAR = slam dunk. Lot depends on how the rotation looks to be shaping up by the end of this year. Without being overly optimistic, the 3 projected openings in the rotation right now could easily be narrowed down to one by then (through Kelly/trade/farm), at which point you might be looking at filling that last opening with:

A. An upgrade
B. Somebody capable of actually providing the possibility of a full season's worth of production

2 WAR season or not, at 31 years old and for $13m i don't see Ben automatically picking up that option and essentially marrying a 2016 rotation spot to Buchholz if he (yet again) ends the year offering more questions then answers. Sometimes it just makes more sense to cut the cord and open the door to other possibilities.

(on a side note, how great does the back structure of this contract look in hindsight)

benhogan · Apr 13, 2015

Sprowl said:
Why is that an either/or choice? As a former starter with no particular platoon split, Robbie Ross should be able to pitch more than an inning.

Agreed, Ross could handle 1-2 innings at a time, but he flunked his test as a starter last season (he was an effective reliever in 2012 and 13).

I like the idea of developing our plethora of young pitching in 3-4 inning stints at the ML level, ala Earl Weaver.

Also think the Sox would be better served having a long reliever with our starting staff.

For example, I'd rather have Wright (as a long reliever) on the 25 man roster (in 8 days) then say, hmmmm.....Edward Mujica. I know, I know, that's not happening.

nvalvo · Apr 13, 2015

The Gray Eagle said:
If he walked Johnny Damon last night, then that was some really terrible pitching.

Was Buchholz shaking off a lot of pitches early? Or was Hanigan calling for all the breaking balls?

Weird Freudian slip.

Kull · Apr 13, 2015

nvalvo said:
Weird Freudian slip.

All noodle-armed former Red Sox center fielders look alike once you shave off the beards.

sean1562 · Apr 14, 2015

Honestly maybe we are putting too much importance on one start? The not backing up home plate is disheartening but sometime you just dont have it and get rocked. Jordan Zimmermann was one of the best pitchers in the league last year but we just demolished him. It is early, I am willing to chalk it up as one bad start

flymrfreakjar · Apr 14, 2015

sean1562 said:
Honestly maybe we are putting too much importance on one start? The not backing up home plate is disheartening but sometime you just dont have it and get rocked. Jordan Zimmermann was one of the best pitchers in the league last year but we just demolished him. It is early, I am willing to chalk it up as one bad start

And Zimmerman should've been backing up 3rd today. Kershaw, Madbum, Lester, and now Zimmerman have all had awful starts this past week too. Clay was a victim of some serious bad luck which was compounded by poorly-timed awful pitching. I don't necessarily think it was a super predictive start.

FinanceAdvice · Apr 14, 2015

benhogan said:
Agreed, Ross could handle 1-2 innings at a time, but he flunked his test as a starter last season (he was an effective reliever in 2012 and 13).

I like the idea of developing our plethora of young pitching in 3-4 inning stints at the ML level, ala Earl Weaver.

Also think the Sox would be better served having a long reliever with our starting staff.

For example, I'd rather have Wright (as a long reliever) on the 25 man roster (in 8 days) then say, hmmmm.....Edward Mujica. I know, I know, that's not happening.

I also like idea of having young pitchers start off as RP. One who immediately comes to mind is HOFer Jim Plamer. He started out as reliever and look what happened. But I imagine you have to be careful becuase of personalities.

Reverend · Apr 14, 2015

soxhop411 said:
@JMastrodonato: Buchholz admitted he shouldve been backing up home but said he was frustrated and thought runs were scoring regardless.

That's, like, a really bad attitude. I guess the question is how bad--we've run a piece here looking at the frustration with his response to frustration.

My hope is that the team has enough gamers and leaders that someone besides Farrell can talk to him. That said, I know some very high acumen Red Sox fans who were ready to throw him off the team yesterday.

Snodgrass'Muff · Apr 14, 2015

I'm one of his biggest fans and hold on to the (irrational) hope that he's going to put it together and become a healthy ace. I can forgive a lot, but right now I'm just pissed off. Inexcusable.

Jnai · Apr 24, 2015

Also, apparently the answer to the "weird new changeup" is that it's actually the "weird old changeup":

Brimac: http://www.providencejournal.com/article/20150424/SPORTS/150429523/13933/NEWS

He saw a picture of himself holding the ball differently on the cafeteria wall. Seriously. Only Clay Buchholz.

threecy · Apr 25, 2015

Jnai said:
Also, apparently the answer to the "weird new changeup" is that it's actually the "weird old changeup":

Brimac: http://www.providencejournal.com/article/20150424/SPORTS/150429523/13933/NEWS

He saw a picture of himself holding the ball differently on the cafeteria wall. Seriously. Only Clay Buchholz.

If that story is legit, I don't know who it's more damning of - Clay or the Red Sox staff.

Traut · Apr 25, 2015

threecy said:
If that story is legit, I don't know who it's more damning of - Clay or the Red Sox staff.

Clay. It is his responsibility to care about his craft. It is impossible to imagine this happening to any of the great pitchers we've seen here over the last 25 years - Pedro, Lester, Schilling, Clemens. Stupidity and indifference are what seperates Buchholz from those guys. He suceeds inspite of himself. He's got a multi-million dollar arm and a ten cent brain.

Mighty Joe Young · Apr 25, 2015

Well, there was no mention of why he changed to the four seam CU grip in the first place. Was this at the behest of the Sox? Maybe he just lost the feel for that one as well? Off speed effectiveness for any given pitch seems to come and go with Buchholz with a rather alarming frequency (well the "go" is alarming).

If I recall he made a conscious shift away from the four seam fastball after getting hammered early in his MLB career. Maybe this was not unrelated?

judyb · Apr 25, 2015

It also says he hadn't thrown it since his early days in the farm system, which would be almost a decade ago now.

Plympton91 · Apr 25, 2015

Suggests there might be further improvement to come if he gains control of it as he uses it more. The increase in strikeout rate is delightful, now the command just has to follow.

Jnai · Apr 25, 2015

iayork said:
It does explain that. ""That was the way I kept gripping it until it became uncomfortable, and I didn't really know how to fix it." You'd think a pitching coach might have been able to help him with that, but not necessarily. We hear a lot about how pitchers' hands physically change as they use various grips, so it's not necessarily just discomfort but physical impossibility.

I think this is a much too literal reading of the word "uncomfortable". Brian describes the new/old grip as a two seam grip while the other grip was a four seam grip. But, it's almost certainly still the circle change.

We'll get a picture of it from NESN next start, no doubt.

Jnai · Apr 25, 2015

BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
Well, there was no mention of why he changed to the four seam CU grip in the first place. Was this at the behest of the Sox? Maybe he just lost the feel for that one as well? Off speed effectiveness for any given pitch seems to come and go with Buchholz with a rather alarming frequency (well the "go" is alarming).

If I recall he made a conscious shift away from the four seam fastball after getting hammered early in his MLB career. Maybe this was not unrelated?

Probably not related. Buchholz shifted away from the fourseam much later. The change up switch apparently happened around Single A.

Niastri · Apr 25, 2015

Jnai said:
I think this is a much too literal reading of the word "uncomfortable". Brian describes the new/old grip as a two seam grip while the other grip was a four seam grip. But, it's almost certainly still the circle change.

We'll get a picture of it from NESN next start, no doubt.

I hope we get a picture of the locker room wall that prompted the change... pun intended.

wade boggs chicken dinner · Apr 25, 2015

threecy said:
If that story is legit, I don't know who it's more damning of - Clay or the Red Sox staff.

Why is it damning? Clay is one pitcher who seems to change up (intended, sorry) his grips and pitches from season to season. Like the 4-seamer he used and then didn't used; the two-seamer that he developed in 2013-ish; and the splitter that he learned from Beckett in 2012 (according to this article: http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/28244/changeup-key-to-clay-buchholzs-surge) that dives down and tails armside but I'm not sure if he uses much anymore.

As for his grip, there are some interesting pictures out here. Here is the picture from Buchholz at Greenville.

However, this article - http://www.southcoasttoday.com/article/20150424/SPORTS/150429543/101224/NEWS0301 - has a picture from Buchholz in 2012 that looks like the same Greenville grip.

Maybe Buchholz has used so many grips and pitches, he has kind of lost the history for them?

But good for him and the Sox if he found something that works. For now.

threecy · Apr 25, 2015

wade boggs chicken dinner said:
Why is it damning?

When you consider how much time and money the Red Sox spend on analytics, coaching, scouting, etc., one would think the changing of a grip would be caught pretty quickly. It's pathetic to think that the only reason anyone noticed the change was because of a picture in a cafeteria.

I suspect it's not as simple as portrayed, and could be tied to when they changed his arm slot years ago.

teddywingman · Apr 27, 2015

The two grips shown above are not the same.

absintheofmalaise · Apr 27, 2015

Great look at the new-old changeup by iayork was posted on the site today.

soxhop411 · Apr 28, 2015

@jtomase: Farrell: So many times, the starter sets the tone. Needless to say, Buchholz didnt set a very good one tonight.

Reggie's Racquet · Apr 28, 2015

soxhop411 · Apr 28, 2015

Jason Mastrodonato ‏@JMastrodonato 31s31 seconds ago
Clay Buchholz: "Whenever your team gives you a 4-R lead you're supposed to come out better than that...It's not going to happen to me again"

soxhop411 · Apr 28, 2015

Ryan Hannable ‏@RyanHannable 4m4 minutes ago
Clay Buchholz: "I have to do a better job of minimizing the damage in that inning and getting us back in there with the lead still."

soxhop411 · Apr 28, 2015

Jason Mastrodonato ‏@JMastrodonato 7m7 minutes ago
Buchholz: "I would have liked to have stayed in there a little longer but it's not my call. I've got to do a better job of persuading."

soxhop411 · Apr 28, 2015

Clay Buchholz didn't have many answers for what happened in a five-run third inning as his rough start paved the way for the Red Sox' 11-8 loss to the Blue Jays on Tuesday night.
But after the game, Buchholz vowed to be better.
"Whenever your team gives you a four run lead you're supposed to come out better than that," he said. "I went out there with a game plan of throwing strikes, let them put the ball in play and get outs and I walked the first guy and all the contact they made, they hit the ball hard and it wasn't at any of our defenders in the field. I've got to do a lot better job than that."
Buchholz was pulled after just 62 pitches when he allowed a walk and five singles and recorded two outs in the third inning.
"I would have liked to have stayed in there a little longer but it's not my call," he said. "I've got to do a better job of persuading I guess, in a way. A couple of pitches got hard, a couple of them I felt were pretty good pitches, others were mistakes in the zone, that's what good hitters are supposed to do. I'm a lot better than that so, I get them again in two more starts. I'll do a lot better job next time.''
Buchholz has a 5.76 ERA with 33 strikeouts in 25 innings through his first five starts. For more on Buchholz, check out Wednesday's Boston Herald.

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox_mlb/clubhouse_insider/2015/04/clay_buchholz_after_early_exit_its_not_going_to_happen

brandonchristensen · Apr 29, 2015

Can't wait for the weather to improve so he can start using suntan lotion.

P'tucket rhymes with... · Apr 29, 2015

Clay might be unprojectable, although his pitch tendencies last night weren't. Jays batters had the luxury of pretty much ignoring half the plate, because a baseball was only going to end up there by accident.

Smiling Joe Hesketh · May 5, 2015

Since his injury in the middle of 2013, Buchholz is 9-15 with a 5.44 ERA with a 1.418 WHIP and a 72 ERA+. I dunno, maybe I'm simple, but it seems to me fairly clear his shoulder is likely not right and never really recovered from that injury and his subsequent pitching in the playoffs that year when his velocity was way down.

It's funny, this year his K rate is way up and his K/BB ratio is excellent, but his hit rate has spiked at the same time. His HR and BB rates are normal for him, right around his career averages. He's not getting hit harder, per se, but he's getting hit much more often while at the same time he's striking out more batters than ever before. Strange.

Rasputin · May 5, 2015

Before the season started, I thought the chances of the Sox not picking up his option were pretty slim. Now I can see a clear path to him not being in the top 7 pitchers at season's end.

It's still probably a pretty small chance, but damn, I didn't even want to think about going there.

Snodgrass'Muff · May 5, 2015

Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
Since his injury in the middle of 2013, Buchholz is 9-15 with a 5.44 ERA with a 1.418 WHIP and a 72 ERA+. I dunno, maybe I'm simple, but it seems to me fairly clear his shoulder is likely not right and never really recovered from that injury and his subsequent pitching in the playoffs that year when his velocity was way down.

It's funny, this year his K rate is way up and his K/BB ratio is excellent, but his hit rate has spiked at the same time. His HR and BB rates are normal for him, right around his career averages. He's not getting hit harder, per se, but he's getting hit much more often while at the same time he's striking out more batters than ever before. Strange.

Fangraphs took an interesting look at him this past winter, concluding that he had suffered from some bad luck last year because while he wasn't getting hit harder, he was seeing more balls in play land for hits, though a lot of that was landing in the gaps so it wasn't a case of poor defense holding him back. If that's continuing into this year, you have to wonder at what point that sample gets large enough that it probably means something. I'm holding out hope that he turns it around, but it's getting harder and harder to stay positive.

http://www.fangraphs.com/community/what-to-make-of-clay-buchholz-for-2015/

RedOctober3829 · May 5, 2015

Rasputin said:
Before the season started, I thought the chances of the Sox not picking up his option were pretty slim. Now I can see a clear path to him not being in the top 7 pitchers at season's end.

It's still probably a pretty small chance, but damn, I didn't even want to think about going there.

If it gets worse over the next 2-3 starts I would start to think that the possibility of the team DFA'ing Buchholz and bringing up either Eduardo Rodriguez or Brian Johnson to replace him starts to surface.

Rasputin · May 5, 2015

RedOctober3829 said:
If it gets worse over the next 2-3 starts I would start to think that the possibility of the team DFA'ing Buchholz and bringing up either Eduardo Rodriguez or Brian Johnson to replace him.

I think the next two times around the rotation is about when we should start thinking about bringing up someone else, but I'm not sure Buchholz is the first one to be replaced and I'm not sure a DFA is the answer.

I mean, if they find that there is something wrong with him--and he's a pitcher so there's got to be something wrong with him--they can DL him instead and delay the decision by a month or so while they what Rodriguez does with the job.

RedOctober3829 · May 5, 2015

Rasputin said:
I think the next two times around the rotation is about when we should start thinking about bringing up someone else, but I'm not sure Buchholz is the first one to be replaced and I'm not sure a DFA is the answer.

I mean, if they find that there is something wrong with him--and he's a pitcher so there's got to be something wrong with him--they can DL him instead and delay the decision by a month or so while they what Rodriguez does with the job.

He has to agree to a DL trip first. If that doesn't work, the only option would be a DFA unless some team is desperate enough to trade for him. If any team give up something of substance for him, I'd drive him to the airport myself.

uncannymanny · May 5, 2015

He's really starting to seem like the SP version of Dan Uggla.

Al Zarilla · May 5, 2015

Anybody else see a Bronson Arroyo type outcome for Clay if he moves to the NL?

uncannymanny · May 5, 2015

Al Zarilla said:
Anybody else see a Bronson Arroyo type outcome for Clay if he moves to the NL?

Arroyo was never particularly bad though, in fact his AL/NL and Boston ERAs are exactly the same.

donutogre · May 5, 2015

Al Zarilla said:
Anybody else see a Bronson Arroyo type outcome for Clay if he moves to the NL?

Not even a little bit. Bronson threw 200+ innings at the age of 28 and then did it 8 more times after that (gonna give Bronson that one inning in 2011). Clay hasn't done it once. Moving to the NL won't help him stay on the field, though I guess he might have more longer outings since he won't be dealing with the DH.

I'm as down on Clay as I got with DiceK, and that's saying something. They were both full of potential but just couldn't put it together for extended stretches. Clay is overall better, but that's not saying much. Both just maddening to watch in their inconsistency.

WenZink · May 5, 2015

RedOctober3829 said:
He has to agree to a DL trip first. If that doesn't work, the only option would be a DFA unless some team is desperate enough to trade for him. If any team give up something of substance for him, I'd drive him to the airport myself.

All it takes is 2-3 decent starts to make him attractive to another team. Not REAL attractive, mind you, but as low-risk project, where he turns it around and suddenly those two years of $13 million options look good. Of course, the Sox would have to take on salary.. Maybe the Sox see something in Buehrle to take on the remains of his $20 mil salary. Too bad Lincecum has had a turnaround. Jared Weaver's fastball is down to 84 mph, and is owed $20 mil in 2016, in addition to about $15 mil for this year. No trade clauses abound, but as bad as the Sox feel about Buch, other teams are stuck with something similar. At least some other team might think they can cure him. Does a Buehrle have any value to the Sox, besides his ability to pitch a complete game in less time that Buch pitches an inning? Just a thought.

You're not going to get anything really good, but it's a case of swapping one team's disappointment for another's. These kind of trades used to happen all the time before al the no-trade clauses. And they rarely worked for either side, but it was an available exit-strategy where both teams and both players could save face.

bellowthecat · May 5, 2015

Let's take a look at his stats to date and where they place among the league leaders (for starters only).

xFIP is 2.93, good for 11th in the majors and 4th in the AL.
FIP is 2.97, good for 21st in the majors and 8th in the AL.
BABIP is .407, highest in the majors.
ERA is 6.03, 9th highest in the majors, 7th in the AL.
LOB% is 60.3%, 10th lowest in the majors, 8th lowest in the AL.
K% is 27.4%, 9th in the majors, 3rd in the AL.
K-BB% is 20.6, 12th best in the majors, 8th in the AL.
LD% is 21.5%, 51st in the majors and almost exactly league average.
ERA-FIP is 3.06, highest in the majors. (Lester is actually 2nd)

I sorted every qualified starter season from 2000-2014 by ERA-FIP and found the largest in that time was Ricky Nolasco's 2009 season. In 185 innings his ERA-FIP was 1.71. Clay's 2014 is 5th on that list at 1.33.

If Clay had a normal BABIP he'd probably have a normal LOB% and his ERA would be closer to what his peripherals suggest. His career BABIP is .289. As crazy as it sounds, even to myself, I have to think he's going to be much better going forward. If his ERA was as good as his xFIP we'd all be talking about how his performance looks sustainable thanks to the awesome peripherals. His results have been so disgustingly bad that instinct makes us want to say he's done as a serviceable pitcher, but the numbers say otherwise.

Every time I open this page now I see the first post on it about tipping his pitches and it seems more plausible after every start. Not sure how you fix that if that is in fact the case. I really hope he gets it together.

czar · May 5, 2015

bellowthecat said:
Let's take a look at his stats to date and where they place among the league leaders (for starters only).

xFIP is 2.93, good for 11th in the majors and 4th in the AL.
FIP is 2.97, good for 21st in the majors and 8th in the AL.
BABIP is .407, highest in the majors.
ERA is 6.03, 9th highest in the majors, 7th in the AL.
LOB% is 60.3%, 10th lowest in the majors, 8th lowest in the AL.
K% is 27.4%, 9th in the majors, 3rd in the AL.
K-BB% is 20.6, 12th best in the majors, 8th in the AL.
LD% is 21.5%, 51st in the majors and almost exactly league average.
ERA-FIP is 3.06, highest in the majors. (Lester is actually 2nd)

I sorted every qualified starter season from 2000-2014 by ERA-FIP and found the largest in that time was Ricky Nolasco's 2009 season. In 185 innings his ERA-FIP was 1.71. Clay's 2014 is 5th on that list at 1.33.

If Clay had a normal BABIP he'd probably have a normal LOB% and his ERA would be closer to what his peripherals suggest. His career BABIP is .289. As crazy as it sounds, even to myself, I have to think he's going to be much better going forward. If his ERA was as good as his xFIP we'd all be talking about how his performance looks sustainable thanks to the awesome peripherals. His results have been so disgustingly bad that instinct makes us want to say he's done as a serviceable pitcher, but the numbers say otherwise.

Every time I open this page now I see the first post on it about tipping his pitches and it seems more plausible after every start. Not sure how you fix that if that is in fact the case. I really hope he gets it together.

I tweeted pretty much that exact ERA-FIP comparison last night. Finished a Fangraphs/Rotographs post on it this AM which should run on the site in the next day or two. Buchholz multiple standard deviations beyond precedent with regard to difference between ERA and peripherals.

Even if you are argue he is tipping his pitches, you'd expect to see it in either LD% or Hard% (i.e., well above average values because batters are raking balls they are contacting), neither of which is the case.

If Clay Buchholz is really as bad as his ERA has been this year, he's probably the biggest outlier among all pitchers in any pitching peripheral stat over the last couple decades. The more plausible explanation is he's gotten at least a little unlucky (his xBABIP is right at league average and just south of .300 where it should be) and should be better going forward. I am not saying you can't make the argument that his peripherals are somewhat unsustainable given his previous marks -- his K%, K%-BB%, and SwStr% are well above his career averages. But he would have to completely lose the ability to strike ANYONE out (and walk everyone else) to post an xFIP/SIERA/whatever north of 5.00.

But the whole "let's DFA him" thing is a better narrative for Eric Wilbur.

czar · May 5, 2015

Snodgrass'Muff said:
Fangraphs took an interesting look at him this past winter, concluding that he had suffered from some bad luck last year because while he wasn't getting hit harder, he was seeing more balls in play land for hits, though a lot of that was landing in the gaps so it wasn't a case of poor defense holding him back. If that's continuing into this year, you have to wonder at what point that sample gets large enough that it probably means something. I'm holding out hope that he turns it around, but it's getting harder and harder to stay positive.

http://www.fangraphs.com/community/what-to-make-of-clay-buchholz-for-2015/

Small nitpick, this isn't actually a Fangraphs piece. It's a community piece from an unaffiliated writer that Fangraphs approved.

Relatedly, if anyone is ever interested in writing a community type piece such as this, let me know, I know the powers that be are always looking out for things like that (and FG hired a couple writers who posted "freebies" through the community blog).

kieckeredinthehead · May 5, 2015

bellowthecat said:
Every time I open this page now I see the first post on it about tipping his pitches and it seems more plausible after every start. Not sure how you fix that if that is in fact the case. I really hope he gets it together.

2015:
Bases Empty: 213/280/307 (587 OPS); BABIP: 300
Men on: 421/453/579 (1032 OPS); BABIP: 537

2014:
Bases Empty: 236/301/382 (683 OPS); BABIP: 270
Men on: 322/379/460 (839 OPS); BABIP: 375

I mean, he's got to be tipping pitches out of the stretch, right? That would explain why the hits he gives up are clustered, leading to an ERA way elevated above what his peripherals would suggest.

edit:
compare to 2013:
Bases Empty: 228/305/308 (613 OPS); BABIP: 295
Men on: 158/217/230 (447 OPS); BABIP: 196

Any 2013 video of him from the stretch in the cafeteria somebody could take a look at?

The Gray Eagle · May 5, 2015

I know he pitched lousy yesterday, especially early, but the location on the HR by Butler wasn't that bad. And the location on at least one other RBI hit he allowed was good, at least on the TV strike zone thing.

And the first inning is a 1-2-3 inning if not for the stupid rule that says it's not a catch when an outfielder catches the ball and then takes three steps and smashes into the wall and the ball is jarred loose.

Sox starters' strand rate got even lower of course when the runner scored from second after he left.

Buchholz's numbers from the stretch are horrible. There's definitely something wrong with him when runners get on base, whether it's mental, a mechanical issue from the stretch, or tipping pitches. I have no idea what it is though.

People probably wouldn't be so up in arms if last night was 6.3 IP with 2 runs allowed, which it easily could have been.

Again, Buchholz has pitched lousy this year, and last night had plenty of bad pitching from him. I don't think last night's pitching was as awful as it seems though.

It's like this entire season for the rotation so far: not solely lousy pitching, and not solely bad luck, but lousy pitching combined with bad luck.

czar · May 5, 2015

kieckeredinthehead said:
2015:
Bases Empty: 213/280/307 (587 OPS); BABIP: 300
Men on: 421/453/579 (1032 OPS); BABIP: 537

2014:
Bases Empty: 236/301/382 (683 OPS); BABIP: 270
Men on: 322/379/460 (839 OPS); BABIP: 375

I mean, he's got to be tipping pitches out of the stretch, right? That would explain why the hits he gives up are clustered, leading to an ERA way elevated above what his peripherals would suggest.

edit:
compare to 2013:
Bases Empty: 228/305/308 (613 OPS); BABIP: 295
Men on: 158/217/230 (447 OPS); BABIP: 196

Any 2013 video of him from the stretch in the cafeteria somebody could take a look at?

This isn't obvious.

Buchholz out of the stretch in 2015.
BABIP: 0.537
LD/GB/FB: 19/58/23
HardHit%: 30%
Oppo%: 28%

From the windup
BABIP: 0.300
LD/GB/FB: 24/40/36
HardHit%: 31%
Oppo%: 14%

At face value, it appears Buchholz is actually giving up weaker contact out of the stretch (lower LD%, lower HardHit%). He is also getting more GB% which should be beneficial w/r/t double plays.

Interestingly, batters take pitches the opposite way a lot more with runners on, which also implies weaker contact, but could mean something in the defensive alignment game.

Al Zarilla · May 5, 2015

uncannymanny said:
Arroyo was never particularly bad though, in fact his AL/NL and Boston ERAs are exactly the same.

I don't think anyone expected him to average 213 innings a season through age 36 though. I wouldn't be surprised to see Buchholz go to an NL team with a good pitching coach and have a good career from here. Right now, around here, you see phrases like bucket of balls, used pitching machine, etc. as things people would take for him.

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