We call that an outlier. Most good athletes also have good leaping abilities. Hence there is only, what, 4 players in the NBA w verticals under 29''?
Your preferred Celtic target at #3
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That list was notable players below that threshold. There are a bunch of scrubs and role players with short measured verticals. I should also add that a bunch of players (including many european prospects) were never measured at the combine.
Well ok. Are we drafting a guy @ 3 who in all likelihood will be a role player/scrub?
That's not a measurement. It's qualitative. Every scout will agree his most recent vertical jump is 23.5 inches, but not every scout will agree that his tape shows great lateral quickness. I disagree that the vertical doesn't translate. It's a great measurement for explosiveness, strength, and balance. I'm not sure if it's as important in basketball, but in the NFL it matters a lot, especially to teams like the Patriots and Seahawks. It's one of the most important measurements at the combine.
Draftexpress says Gobert is taller, heavier, significantly longer, and has higher verticals. I don't think he helps Bender's case. I'm not saying Bender will fail because he has a weak jump, but it's hard to make the case that he's very athletic with such a poor vertical.
These testing numbers must be taken into context with the individual players skillset. Comparing numbers against another players numbers don't really tell a lot in many cases.
Does Gobert really need ANY vertical much less a 29" to be a dominant rim protector? His game is predicated on length, timing and quickness.....not lift.
Does Pat Connaughton's 44" vertical serve any real purpose in his game that at the NBA level will consist primarily of spot-up 3-pointers?
Does Gobert really need ANY vertical much less a 29" to be a dominant rim protector? His game is predicated on length, timing and quickness.....not lift.
Does Pat Connaughton's 44" vertical serve any real purpose in his game that at the NBA level will consist primarily of spot-up 3-pointers?
Some context for draft combine vertical jump data.
I can't see any reason to use these numbers in this discussion.
I can't see any reason to use these numbers in this discussion.
So because they misrecorded some Vertical numbers we can no longer use it as a baseline for explosiveness? This isnt rocket science guys. If you can explode off the floor at an elite level you are in all likelihood an elite athlete.
How high do you actually need to get in the NBA? A shorter player, or one who lives by attacking the rim, probably needs more vertical. But, if we're talking shot blocking, I could actually see a poor vertical being a pretty minimal consideration for a 7 footer. Relying less on leaping and more on timing and positioning might lead to just as good shot blocking. The game isn't played at 15 feet, and Bender, between height, reach, and vertical can get as high as NBA players really need to get.
So, it doesn't seem like raw vertical actually measures something overly meaningful for a player of his height. What we might care more about is how quickly he gets off the ground. (Think the NBA equivalent of a catcher pop time.) Of course, we don't have that number, but that's a better measure of real game explosiveness, I'd guess, than vertical. Also, as others have pointed out, he's supposed to have great lateral quickness. What I don't think others have mentioned is that this can make up for poor leaping as well as adding perimeter versatility. A lot of the need for elite leaping is about being out of position and recovering through the air. Great lateral quickness could allow a shot blocker to get to the spot where they need to be to go straight up instead of diagonally. That alone should make up for any deficiency in vertical in a lot of situations.
Anyway, from what I can tell, barring a trade, Bender sounds like the best pick. Getting someone who could be a star is far more valuable than getting someone who can be a rotation player right away. Dunn and Hield don't interest me for this reason. I don't see them having sufficient ceilings. Murray and Brown are more interesting. This team is really fun to watch, but it's probably two elite players from being a title contender. Using a number three pick on anyone without that upside would be a huge waste of resource.
Trade the #3 (and a couple of your 2nd round picks if that's what it takes) for Okafor. Then use the other two first-round picks and throw in the other two second-round picks if you need to, in order to move high enough to get Hield or Murray or Brown (IMO, preferably Hield). Leave the draft with a major, major upgrade in terms of post scoring and outside shooting. Of course, as is the case with most trade ideas, this one probably has about a 99.8% chance of not happening.
I don't *love* Okafor. He isn't a good defender and he isn't super quick. But he's big, he can score, and he's just 20. He can become a 20-22 points per game guy on the block, and there just aren't that many of those guys in the NBA anymore. Hield probably is more of a one-trick pony, but it's a heck of a trick, and the Celtics just don't have many good shooters. Maybe then find a way to pick up a rim protector as well - by trade or by free agency. But I'd be happy if that's how things went down. I just don't think the Celtics will have a way to pick up a mega star, and so have to hope that they can get a guy who might become that under Stevens.
I don't *love* Okafor. He isn't a good defender and he isn't super quick. But he's big, he can score, and he's just 20. He can become a 20-22 points per game guy on the block, and there just aren't that many of those guys in the NBA anymore. Hield probably is more of a one-trick pony, but it's a heck of a trick, and the Celtics just don't have many good shooters. Maybe then find a way to pick up a rim protector as well - by trade or by free agency. But I'd be happy if that's how things went down. I just don't think the Celtics will have a way to pick up a mega star, and so have to hope that they can get a guy who might become that under Stevens.
You're overthinking it. The vertical is a good measure of athleticism and athleticism is important for athletes.
Dunn was swallowed up by college zones for two years and destroyed anyone who attempted to play straight up man-to-man. Some are saying he will be John Wall's equivalent in a couple years. He is far from only a rotation player with a low ceiling. Personal bias aside I woudn't be surprised if he won ROY if he is drafted by the right team.
It's an opinion about college basketball players. Of course it's subjective.
I've never seen Dunn play, but Dunn is a 22-year old who played in a major conference for four years, and was never seen as a big time prospect. That by itself makes it somewhat unlikely that he's a big upside guy.
This is way way off base.
Dunn played half his freshman season out of position with an injured shoulder after missing the entire summer leading up to his first year. He then missed his entire second season after reinjuring same shoulder. He won Big East POY year the next two seasons.
Dunn was a McDonalds HS All-American, ranked by Rivals as the #1 PG in his class, and #16 overall. He's never not been considered a top prospect.
Aside from his past, Dunn has been NBA-ready for two years possessing elite athleticism, defense, and passing. The areas he needed to improve upon this year and has is in tightening his handle, finishing in the paint and shooting. The Wall comps aren't far off if they are off at all.
You're not getting a mid lottery pick for leftovers (this isn't the NFL) and the price on Okafor went sky high the minute Noel's off-the-court problems blew up in public. As of now Okafor is the prize of the Sixers' season(s) in hell. The odds of the new management trading him, now that they're bringing in vets to surround him, are pretty low. They might love Dunn, but probably not enough when their other options include point guards available in the draft, trade, and free agent markets.
Sorry the Noel off court thing is this trashing a rental house noise? Because I didn't hear anything else and he's largely regarded as a good dude as far as I know.
Blew up seems a bit much, I follow the sixers closely and it's one story that he disputes and no one will comment on as its a pending lawsuit. It's also over like over a total maximum of 40k.
I literally have not heard it come up once in the infinite trade Noel or Okafor threads on various sites.
Edit nighthob I looked back and you mentioned this several times like it was known he had behavioural issues etc. I thought more than one had but it's just you repeatedly. Unless you know something most of Philly doesn't or are obsessed about him trashing a house or him missing practices etc when he was injured in his first season I don't know what you're referring to
Blew up seems a bit much, I follow the sixers closely and it's one story that he disputes and no one will comment on as its a pending lawsuit. It's also over like over a total maximum of 40k.
I literally have not heard it come up once in the infinite trade Noel or Okafor threads on various sites.
Edit nighthob I looked back and you mentioned this several times like it was known he had behavioural issues etc. I thought more than one had but it's just you repeatedly. Unless you know something most of Philly doesn't or are obsessed about him trashing a house or him missing practices etc when he was injured in his first season I don't know what you're referring to
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Lacking shooting, finishing, and ball handling skills is kind of a big deal.
Vertical is a good measure of leaping. Leaping requires athleticism. That does not make vertical a good measure of athleticism.
Not lacking them.....areas that needed refining compared to his already elite skills entering his senior year which have been.
You can use the numbers if you want. I just want to point out that we probably don't have access to good numbers.
Dunn has some upside, but Bender clearly has a higher ceiling in terms of team building value (not commenting on his likelihood of reaching it, while I live down the road from PC, all I've got on Bender are scouting reports and highlights).
There is age of course, but more importantly positional scarcity and skill set. PG is the deepest position in the league and Dunn's shortcomings (shooting, handle and court vision) could be an issue in a NBA PG. In contrast, stretch bigs remain a relatively rare commodity (watch how much Ryan Anderson gets paid). A stretch big, who can protect the rim and switch the pick and roll is a fucking unicorn.
Could you elaborate on the bolded? There are few NBA PG's with better court vision.....it's one of the traits that has scouts drooling.
Unfortunately Noel's are bigger. And Embiid hasn't played competitive basketball in two years. I'd bet on the Sixers trading into the 15-20 range for Wade Baldwin before sending out Okafor for Dunn at this point.
Again what are Noel's off court issues that you keep mentioning without reference.
Sure, it's a measure, but not the end all. Which is confirmed by the NBA scouts saying his athleticism is a plus.
Chad Ford had the Cs taking Chriss with the 4th pick at one point but I think Ford has had the Cs take every possible player in some mock, just so he can say he got it right once.
Watching Jaylen Brown reminded me of how excited I was when the Celtics drafted Ron Mercer.
Had not seen Dunn before his senior year. His court vision was bordering elite. Can't imagine it was much below that before.
The filings in the lawsuit over the home that he trashed, complete with drug paraphernalia, the Swiftian state of the premises, and the threats against the home owner should he sue, would be red flags for any normal NBA player, but since Noel was drafted by NBA Jesus they're probably invented.
Without getting into the weeds (since as I said, I've never watched Dunn play a minute), being ranked the 16th best college prospect is not the same as being a big time NBA prospect. Dunn also ranked 20th on RSCI, and 23rd on Scout and ESPN, so Rivals was the most favorable ranking. John Wall in contrast was the #1 or #2 recruit, and it was understood at the time that he was a sure-thing one and done prospect who would go high in the draft, and go #1 overall if he played reasonably well.
Top NBA prospects rarely play four years in college. There are exceptions, but Dunn wasn't playing for Weber State here. That's not the kiss of death for his upside of course, but this doesn't exactly read like the resume of the next John Wall.
Why didn't Dunn declare after his junior year?
Dunn wanted to graduate and didn't think he was ready for the NBA after last season. His decision will ultimately make him millions. He was going to be a top 20 pick last year, maybe even lottery with some good workouts but he wanted to work on his game more.
He's not as good of a prospect as a John Wall but I could see his upside being that of a Wall. His last collegiate game saw him put up 29 points against UNC where he only had help from Bentil. Bender may have more "upside" than Dunn but if I had to place bets on who will have a greater NBA impact between the two, it would be Dunn. He's probably ready to start in the NBA right now.
He's not as good of a prospect as a John Wall but I could see his upside being that of a Wall. His last collegiate game saw him put up 29 points against UNC where he only had help from Bentil. Bender may have more "upside" than Dunn but if I had to place bets on who will have a greater NBA impact between the two, it would be Dunn. He's probably ready to start in the NBA right now.
Smoking pot and trashing a rental house probably fall pretty low on concerns about a 20 year old NBA player.
Dunn was a borderline lottery pick last year so leaving was thought to be a no-brainer. His decision had zero to do with him not being highly thought of by GM's.
His father wanted him to leave school for the money selling him on how he could always take summer or online courses to complete his degree. The irony here is that it was his father who steered Kris to Cooley at PC as he was the only coach who ever even mentioned academics during the recruiting process.
Kris wanted to be an example to his younger sisters, loved his time at Providence, and graduating meant something to him from where he came from. He's a smart kid (Stanford was recruiting him as he would have qualified there) with a great head on his shoulders. Providence acquiring the $5m insurance policy for him was the final step to him returning for his 3rd season (he redshirted his second year and had another year eligibility).
No one said it was. However this "argument" started with a poster saying he was "unathletic" and others pointing out that many NBA scouts actually say the complete opposite.
Then, this being SoSH, it became all about something else.
The total lawsuit is around 40,000 USD. This comes pretty low on my list of concerns about players. The rumours of a tombstone are a bit much, and there's no evidence the drug stuff was him vs some part of his entourage. It boggles the mind they left it vs the costs of a good cleaner to sort it all out, but it sounds to me like there was a party at the end of the rental and it got out of hand. There are rumours that Noel wasn't involved in the house trashing, but he hasn't come out on record on it because it's a pending lawsuit, but he claims it's not anything like as bad as rumoured.
I don't know the truth of the matter, but then again neither do you, yet you're constantly having it impact the Sixers' decision making process and the value of BOTH him and Okafor, which seems utterly ridiculous.
This is a non story in Philly, it got some short term press, and likely will again at resolution. But weed and trashing a rental house for 40,000 USD is pretty low down the list of behaviours from NBA players than result in a huge change in their value. Every other story about Noel is very positive. He got in some trouble when injured in year 1, as many young players would and have done when injured. But since he's been playing he's been excellent character wise on and off the court. It's possible this is a big deal, but I doubt it.
In short I think you're massively blowing it out of proportion.
Bowiac, we got the #3 pick. You still sticking to your opinion that we are going to trade for Jimmy Butler?
Wouldn't the Bulls leadership team making Butler the face of the franchise by representing them on the NBA lottery stage be considered new information?
Sorry, by "new information", I mean "inside information."
Like I said earlier, it's just a guess. I don't take the lottery stuff to be particularly noteworthy however.
Regardless of Butler's presence at the dog & pony show, if Boston were drafting #1, Butler would likely be a Celtic (similarly if Lil' Zeke were the price of Paul George, then he'd be a Pacer regardless of his being there). Unfortunately they're picking third, and far more likely to be using the pick as a result. I do think that Bulls ownership has come down for keeping him, which means that the asking price is higher, and probably puts him out of Boston's range.
Gotcha. We have fundamental differences on the tell of being essentially branded the face of the franchise this summer.
I think you're making way too much of this. Kyle Singler repped the Pistons in 2014. Is he still a Piston? Was he ever the face of the franchise? Or was he available that day? What about when Phoenix sent the Morris twins that year? Which of them are still in Phoenix? Michael Kidd-Glichrest was the Hornets rep last season. Is he the face of their franchise? Untouchable? IT was there for the Celtics this year. There's another thread where people are advocating trading him, and the consensus seems to be he's not untouchable. Willie Cauley-Stein was there for the Kings. Same deal: there's a thread here where folks are advocating dealing for him, and nobody is interjecting each time they do with "He was at the draft lottery!"
You could make just as strong an argument that sending Butler was designed to put to rest the notion that he's some clubhouse cancer that the organization needs to get rid of. It could just be a negotiating tactic to try and cover the fact that everybody in the league seems to believe Chicago needs to deal him.
I mostly land in the category of thinking it's just totally irrelevant noise, with little actually signalling value (i.e., Singler or the Morii), but this is also a real possibility. Or maybe they do want to keep him. I don't know, but that's why I don't take this stuff seriously. I suspect it largely functions as a sort "tofu", where it just reinforces whatever other opinions one already had. This kind of tea leaf reading can sometimes have value, but I can't parse it at least.
On the substantive question of who to take, Andrew Johnson just ran a piece about this using his draft valuation model. He basically concludes the Celtics are screwed, but that he'd take Bender.
I'd be very happy with a Bender pick.
I'd be very happy with a Bender pick.
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It seems really odd that a team that gets the 3rd pick in any sport is screwed. Is there really so little talent flooding into the league that picking 3rd is almost useless to many people?
Well, "screwed" just in the sense that he agrees it's a two player draft, so there's not a huge gap between 3 and 6 in his model, and not much of a gap further down even.