Your FA/Draft Plan From Here

Hendoo

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Tony C said:
 
All this stuff, the cost foremost. But would just add that when I've seen Allen it seems like he's one of those all in for the rush guys who doesn't care about the run and seems to get a lot of cheap sacks. Peppers is bigger and doesn't get pushed around in the run game, and seems to come up big in big moments. I say that while also acknowledging that this is based on irregular watching of the Vikings and Bears so may well be a small sample size impression.
 
If we are losing Vince I think DT becomes more of a hole than DE. If his knee is on schedule, Henry Melton would help against  the run and provide pass rush as a DT. He had 13 sacks in the 2 seasons  before his injury last year. Prior to the knee, Chicago ranked No. 8 against the run. After, the Bears' run defense dropped to last.  I would check out his knee.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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soxfan121 said:
 
1. Cheaper. Peppers is right in the Freeney/Abraham zone that ended up being 2 years and $6-8.5M total. Personally, that made more sense when I thought they would be hanging on to Vince (and still might, despite his request to go now). 
 
2. Peppers is larger, physically, and while he's no Ty Warren he's also bigger (by an inch and 15 pounds) than Allen. 
 
3. Ability to play against the run. I think BB is a genius and is adapting to the modern game but he's also got "stop the run" hardwired into his DNA. All else being close, I think BB prefers the guy who can play responsible gap control when necessary, as opposed to the guy who is getting upfield on every snap. 
 
4. Allen isn't a football lifer; he seems to actually have interests outside the game and while his threat to retire instead of play for less than he's worth is almost certainly posturing, it also in some microscopic way knocks him down a bit with Belichick and his love of guys who eat, drink and sleep football. I could be entirely wrong about Allen and I don't particularly know whether Peppers is a lifer, but it is one of the little things that could be an entry in the "Con" list. 
 
5. I think this is a rotational job. Allen may want to play all the time. And I don't think the guy they sign to rotate with Ninkovich and provide Jones insurance is going to play all the time. This was the problem with Abraham last season, no?  Ninkovich is a valuable cog in the machine and can certainly move around if necessary to accommodate a talent like Allen but I also don't think the Pats paid Ninkovich $2.85M against this year's cap to be a backup to two full-time DEs (Jones & whomever). 
 
1.) Yes he would (and should) be cheaper then Allen. I also think that the contracts of Abraham/Freeney would match up similarly. Still, I don't see a great parallel with Abraham. Abraham, had registered 10, 9.5, and 13 sacks the previous three years. His numbers never really showed any decline, and his contract was affected in a fairly depressed market. (He also had the mark against him that he was a pure pass rusher and couldn't/wouldn't stop the run). 
 
Freeney, on the other hand, matches up to Peppers pretty well. A serious decline in his final year lead to a 2 year contract from the Chargers. 
 
He played four games, registered half a sack, continued to suck against the run, and was IR'ed.
 
It may be BB's M.O. to offer these type of contracts, but it really doesn't interest me.
 
2.) His size can (obviously) be a good thing. But do we really want a 6'6, 290 lb defensive end who's on the decline? This guys build screams to me that he'll fall off a cliff to retirement, not gracefully trot down a hill.
 
3.) Again, I don't disagree that BB may want a guy that can play the run, but this thread is about my FA/draft plan. Besides, don't we already have that rotational defensive end that can play the run (Nink)?
 
4.) Talking about Allen's love of the game is hearsay at best. 
 
Doing so while we're comparing him to Julius Peppers is just down right comical. The big knock on him before signing his monster contract was that he didn't give a shit about winning or football. 
 
Now, i don't know if anything about Allen or Peppers is true, so using it as a talking point/bullet point in any argument seems foolish.
 
5.) This is a valid point, but I think it could be spun both ways. Jones/Nink/Allen were 1-2-3 in snaps at defensive end last year. There are a ton of ways to utilize all 3 players on the field at the same time. Jones had been shuffled to the DT spot to get more pressure last year. Allen has the size to play DT on occasion during pass rush situations as well, and could probably thrive there more so than Chandler did. Nink can easily play OLB in the base 4-3. The team can mix into a handful of different 4-3 strong, 5-2 type front's. 
 
I think having Allen/Nink/Jones as a trio provides the team more options and more flexibility, and it could only affect their snap count as little as 8-10%. This, too, would be to the teams benefit. I got pretty sick of watching this defense run out of gas in the 4th quarter of any close game.
 
 
 
 
Tony C said:
 
All this stuff, the cost foremost. But would just add that when I've seen Allen it seems like he's one of those all in for the rush guys who doesn't care about the run and seems to get a lot of cheap sacks. Peppers is bigger and doesn't get pushed around in the run game, and seems to come up big in big moments. I say that while also acknowledging that this is based on irregular watching of the Vikings and Bears so may well be a small sample size impression.
 
 
I've never really heard that of Allen, but maybe it's true. Even if it is, so what? With Wilfork gone (maybe?), it certainly adds a wrinkle to the run defense we didn't predict. Still, do we really need another Rob Ninkovich on defense? It's great having the versatile players, but we've all screamed for a better pass rush. Now that the opportunity presents itself, we'd prefer the guy who doesn't get "pushed around in the run game"? I must have missed where the 6'6 270lb potential HoF defensive end is a pushover at the line.
 
People seem to be over-thinking this.
 

Tony C

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fair enough, more likely than not you're right -- my own guess is the Pats go for neither and was suggested by someone above look to shore up the DTs.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Tony C said:
fair enough, more likely than not you're right -- my own guess is the Pats go for neither and was suggested by someone above look to shore up the DTs.
 
Unfortunately, I agree.
 

Super Nomario

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Super Nomario said:
I see the major needs as:
WR - replacement for Edelman - ideally, we just re-sign Edelman. If not, I'd like a veteran replacement. The WR group is already young; I'd prefer to add a vet (Sanders is probably the best option) vs a draft pick. The draft is pretty stacked, though, so maybe a later-round pick?
SS - replacement for Gregory - ideally a FA, since we already have some young S, but I don't see any good options in the market. Maybe a draft pick if someone like Deone Buchanon is available in the right spot? Probably stuck with what we have.
TE - replacement for Hernandez / insurance for Gronk - probably fairly high draft pick, though there are some intriguing FA options - Keller, Daniels, even James Casey if / when he's cut
interior OL - replacement for Wendell and maybe Connolly - I would actually re-sign Wendell to a modest deal ($2-$2.5 MM for 2-3 years), cut Connolly, and add a draft pick. Wendell had a poor 2013 but a good 2012 and I value continuity on the OL.
sub DE - replacement for / upgrade on Carter / Buchanan - someone like Peppers or Jared Allen if inexpensive enough, or a draft pick
DT - insurance for Kelly / Wilfork - probably a high pick on a 3-4 DE type, someone like Hageman, Tuitt, or Urban
RB - replacement for Blount / depth - re-sign Blount if he's cheap enough, or a mid-level draft pick
LB - depth (with Spikes / Fletcher leaving) - re-sign Fletcher if he's cheap enough, or a budget FA / late-round draft pick
1 down, 7 to go. I haven't heard the Pats linked to any DL, SS, TE, or RBs, though Blount is presumably still on the radar. They brought Woodyard in at LB, and I wouldn't be surprised if Fletcher comes back at LB. They brought in a couple lower-level G/Cs (Phil Costa, Shelley Smith), but I haven't heard them linked to anyone lately. A Wendell return engagement is still an option.
 

Cellar-Door

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Super Nomario said:
1 down, 7 to go. I haven't heard the Pats linked to any DL, SS, TE, or RBs, though Blount is presumably still on the radar. They brought Woodyard in at LB, and I wouldn't be surprised if Fletcher comes back at LB. They brought in a couple lower-level G/Cs (Phil Costa, Shelley Smith), but I haven't heard them linked to anyone lately. A Wendell return engagement is still an option.
I think SS isn't much of a concern, they played a CB instead of a true S a lot last year and Browner seems to fit that role. I don't think another SS is much of a priority, they might well be comfortable going into camp at least with McCourty, Wilson, Wilson, Harmon as the top 4 safeties.
 

Super Nomario

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Cellar-Door said:
I think SS isn't much of a concern, they played a CB instead of a true S a lot last year and Browner seems to fit that role. I don't think another SS is much of a priority, they might well be comfortable going into camp at least with McCourty, Wilson, Wilson, Harmon as the top 4 safeties.
They did it a few times. I certainly wouldn't say they did it a lot. McCourty played 90% of the snaps, Gregory played 75%, Harmon 34%, so 95%+ of the time they had two safeties out there.
 
McCourty's great. Harmon seems like he might be decent, though I think he's more of a Gregory-type tweener than either a classic SS or FS. The two Wilsons played a total of 21 snaps on D. At minimum they need another depth player to back up McCourty / Harmon, and I think ideally they'd have a "true SS" and push Harmon to a 3rd-safety role.
 
 
Dogman2 said:
Ebner and K. Davis are both still around too unless I missed something.
They're both still on the roster, but they're more ST players (Ebner played 5 snaps on D, Davis 0).
 

Dogman

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Yep, I knew they didn't play many snaps but there is some depth there.
 
I think I read that Woodyard signed with Tenn. and Smith with the Dolphins. 
 
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We still need help at safety. I disagree that McCourty is anything like "great," though I do like him. I just worry they will reward his "very good" with a Mayo-style "great" contract. He is a good, solid safety, who I think will be even better now that a guy like Revis is lightening his load.

Mentioning Ebner and Davis as SS in the context of guys we have who could, what, maybe start? That's wishful thinking, IMO. Odds are Davis won't be on the team, and I suspect the absolute most Ebner will ever be is a terrific special teamer -- which is plenty, and valuable. And he may actually be on his way to that already. Good, hard working, high motor guy. Love him.

Summing up -- target a big-hitting safety in the draft. Could be some decent value in rounds two and three.
 

Dogman

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I mentioned them as depth only as there were 4 others mentioned as very likely to get snaps if they are all on the roster.  
 

Super Nomario

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Dogman2 said:
Yep, I knew they didn't play many snaps but there is some depth there.
There are bodies, yes. I'm not sure any of them are viable options to play safety other than McCourty and Harmon.
 
The other reason I think they'll add at S is that they cut Gregory. Even if they think Harmon is likely to be better than Gregory next season, why not wait until camp and make him prove it? They didn't play Harmon in the playoffs (just 2 snaps), so clearly they thought Gregory was the better option at the time. And it's not like they saved a lot of money.
 
Dogman2 said:
I think I read that Woodyard signed with Tenn. and Smith with the Dolphins.
That's correct - and Costa signed with Indy. Sorry, I wasn't very clear - I was trying to make the point that they had brought in guys at these positions (and thus they might be planning to add a FA option there), but they hadn't been linked to anyone still available.
 
Looking at some FA lists, here are some options at the positions I listed above:
SS: Major Wright? This a pretty bleak list
TE: Jermichael Finley (probably too expensive), Dustin Keller, Ed Dickson
interior OL: Davin Joseph, Brian De La Puente, Will Montgomery, (Wendell)
sub DE: Jared Allen, Shaun Philips, Will Smith, Israel Idonije, Calvin Pace - these guys are all old, think I'd rather go younger via the draft
DT: Henry Melton (probably too expensive), Kevin Williams (old), Pat Sims, Terrence Cody, Alex Carrington
RB: Maurice Jones-Drew (vet in the Fred Taylor mode, also can catch passes), (Blount)
LB: (Fletcher) Maybe they just roll with what they have - I assume they redshirted Beauharnais for a reason
 

mascho

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I'd kick the tires on Wright.  He had an awful 2013, but so did the entire Bears defense.  He's young, and with all the other secondary pieces they have in place I'm sure he could have a bounce back year.  
 

Zincman

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Using Super Nomario's template as a guide, is this a year in which BB trades out of the 1st round to acquire multiple 2's and 3's in what is being tabbed as a very deep draft in which he could potentially solve multiple problems or is it possible he might move up to snag a stud TE or DL. 
 

Tony C

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I wonder if Dustin Keller isn't worth a look, I always thought he had talent with the Jets. After his gruesome injury he might be a permanent cripple, but I assume only the most minimal guarantee, if any, would be be needed to bring him to camp and have a look
 

Tyrone Biggums

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Zincman said:
Using Super Nomario's template as a guide, is this a year in which BB trades out of the 1st round to acquire multiple 2's and 3's in what is being tabbed as a very deep draft in which he could potentially solve multiple problems or is it possible he might move up to snag a stud TE or DL. 
I actually think this is the year he trades up. Either really high for Watkins or Mack or something smaller such as a few spots up for Ebron. I am content with him staying at the current spot and taking Nix or Amaro. But I really wouldn't be stunned to see a deal for Watkins
 

JohnnyK

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What about Owen Daniels at TE? He had visits in GB and WSH so far, but no word if he is close to signing anywhere or what he'd cost.
 
He was hurt last year and only played 5 games, plus he'll be 32 soon, but he might be worth a gamble.
 

rodderick

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Tyrone Biggums said:
I actually think this is the year he trades up. Either really high for Watkins or Mack or something smaller such as a few spots up for Ebron. I am content with him staying at the current spot and taking Nix or Amaro. But I really wouldn't be stunned to see a deal for Watkins
 
They'd have to trade up to the top 5 of the draft to nab Watkins. Not happening.
 

Reardon's Beard

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I think there's little question at this point they're going to be targeting the lines on draft day. I do not think they'll go in intending to target any offensive weapons early beyond the line, and I would not be surprised if they traded UP a few spots in the event there is a lineman on their radar they regard as worth it.
 

Reardon's Beard

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JohnnyK said:
What about Owen Daniels at TE? He had visits in GB and WSH so far, but no word if he is close to signing anywhere or what he'd cost.
 
He was hurt last year and only played 5 games, plus he'll be 32 soon, but he might be worth a gamble.
Great pass catcher. I'd absolutely kick the tires, but with two TE onboard already have to figure it's a nonstarter. If they could get a vet min deal or close to it, I'd lock him up and punt on TE in the draft.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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rodderick said:
 
They'd have to trade up to the top 5 of the draft to nab Watkins. Not happening.
That might not be completely true. I've read he could actually fall to Detroit at 10.
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

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Super Nomario said:
There are bodies, yes. I'm not sure any of them are viable options to play safety other than McCourty and Harmon.
 
The other reason I think they'll add at S is that they cut Gregory. Even if they think Harmon is likely to be better than Gregory next season, why not wait until camp and make him prove it? They didn't play Harmon in the playoffs (just 2 snaps), so clearly they thought Gregory was the better option at the time. And it's not like they saved a lot of money.
 
That's correct - and Costa signed with Indy. Sorry, I wasn't very clear - I was trying to make the point that they had brought in guys at these positions (and thus they might be planning to add a FA option there), but they hadn't been linked to anyone still available.
 
Looking at some FA lists, here are some options at the positions I listed above:
SS: Major Wright? This a pretty bleak list
TE: Jermichael Finley (probably too expensive), Dustin Keller, Ed Dickson
interior OL: Davin Joseph, Brian De La Puente, Will Montgomery, (Wendell)
sub DE: Jared Allen, Shaun Philips, Will Smith, Israel Idonije, Calvin Pace - these guys are all old, think I'd rather go younger via the draft
DT: Henry Melton (probably too expensive), Kevin Williams (old), Pat Sims, Terrence Cody, Alex Carrington
RB: Maurice Jones-Drew (vet in the Fred Taylor mode, also can catch passes), (Blount)
LB: (Fletcher) Maybe they just roll with what they have - I assume they redshirted Beauharnais for a reason
 
At S I can see them adding another body through free agency, but it won't be anyone other than on a vet minimum deal, IMO. With Revis, Browner, Dennard, Ryan, Arrington, McCourty, Harmon, Ebner, Wilson and Wilson there isn't much room for anyone else. Although, either or both Wilsons could be cut. I still see them addressing any lack of depth here through the draft.
 
At TE, again I don't see them adding a FA unless it's someone on a 1 yr non guaranteed deal. I have a feeling they're going to draft someone early and I wouldn't be surprised to see a UDFA on top of that.
 
Interior OL I can see them picking someone up through free agency. De La Puente would be a nice addition at C, but he'll likely cost too much. There are some intriguing guys in the draft but it's not likely they'd be comfortable relying on a pick to come in and start right away, unless, of course, they go there early.
 
Pass rush DE. Man, it would be awesome to get Allen. I just don't see it happening though. Maybe this is addressed through the draft, but I think they're looking more towards the interior D -line. Either way they need another presence across from Jones. Although, if they can get some pressure up the middle, Nink could be fine in that role.
 
At DT, I'd like to see them get Hageman, Donald, Nix or Tuitt. There isn't anyone in free agency that intrigues me, but if Wilfork goes they're going to need some depth.
 
RB, I think Blount comes back and they draft someone else late. If not I'd like to see them kick the tires on Michael Bush.
 
At LB with Mayo, Hightower, Collins and Beauharnais as likely locks along with Davis and White as their only depth I can see them adding a few bodies here, both in the draft and some cheap FA's.
 

Devizier

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The Patriots have their backup safety; Adrian Wilson.
 
I think they'll hang on to him until they're convinced that he can't contribute (camp?) at which point other candidates for the position will have probably been released from their respective teams.
 
As for the offensive line, I pointed out some months back that Brian Waters is the only significant offensive lineman the Patriots have signed in their last decade of free agency. They clearly have a method for developing the line, and it's not through free agency.
 

Super Nomario

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Devizier said:
The Patriots have their backup safety; Adrian Wilson.
 
I think they'll hang on to him until they're convinced that he can't contribute (camp?) at which point other candidates for the position will have probably been released from their respective teams.
Hanging on to him is one thing; counting him to contribute is something else. He's 34, coming off major surgery, and hasn't played in a year. He didn't look good in the preseason last year, to the point of playing deep into the fourth game. I think he's unlikely to make the roster; I think it's ridiculous to have him as the #3 safety. If Harmon or McCourty gets hurt, is he really played 70 snaps a game?
 
Devizier said:
As for the offensive line, I pointed out some months back that Brian Waters is the only significant offensive lineman the Patriots have signed in their last decade of free agency. They clearly have a method for developing the line, and it's not through free agency.
I'm not sure it's method; this is how pretty much every team would build pretty much every position if they could. You have to be able to hit on your draft picks and develop your later-round guys, though, and the Pats haven't drafted an interior OL starter since Mankins. I do agree they will probably go cheaper than the guys I mentioned above - Smith and Costa are lower-budget guys, in the vein of past signings like Svitek, Donald Thomas, Gallery, etc.
 
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I would be surprised if Adrian Wilson is still on the roster by the first pre-season game. He didn't look like anything but a broken down ghost of his former self before he wound up injured. Even the year before, when he played for AZ he was pretty bad. Counting on him as our back-up safety is unwise, I think.
 

Jnai

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Not really suggesting this as a serious option, but whatever happened to Kerry Rhodes? Wasn't he a pro bowl level defender before being randomly released and potentially outed?
 

SeoulSoxFan

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Note from Miguel @Patscap.com re: compensation picks:
 

@patscap Comp pick update-Signings of Browner+Lafell offset by loss of Spikes+Fletcher so Pats should get a 3rd round pick 4 Talib.Things will change
 

Stitch01

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Tony C said:
I wonder if Dustin Keller isn't worth a look, I always thought he had talent with the Jets. After his gruesome injury he might be a permanent cripple, but I assume only the most minimal guarantee, if any, would be be needed to bring him to camp and have a look
Think this is a great idea.

Zincman said:
Using Super Nomario's template as a guide, is this a year in which BB trades out of the 1st round to acquire multiple 2's and 3's in what is being tabbed as a very deep draft in which he could potentially solve multiple problems or is it possible he might move up to snag a stud TE or DL.
Hard to say how the draft unfolds, but I think the first two options will be stay in place and draft DL or trade down like last year. They need depth at TE, LB, DT, OL, and need to stock the RB pool for next year. Unless they get a DL slipping, trading down is the likely way to go.

I'd put the chances of trading way up at about 0.1%
 

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Stitch01 said:
They need depth at TE, LB, DT, OL, and need to stock the RB pool for next year. Unless they get a DL slipping, trading down is the likely way to go.

I'd put the chances of trading way up at about 0.1%
Agree with all this, but I'd put safety on the list as well as a draft target.

Assuming LGB resigns, and pretty much regardless of whether Vince returns or not, here's my mid March thought:

Trade out the first for a good enough second to a QB-hungry team and get a high end DT in the top quarter of the second round, and a fourth.
Use the Pats own second for a TE.
Use the two third rounders (including the Talib com pick) on OL (prob a center) and best available DL.
Use the two fourth rounders (including the pick added in the trade down) on another TE and the better SS or LB.
Use the two sixth rounders on flyers (e.g. Aaron Murray and Aaron Colvin) and/or trade one down for a seventh and a seventh next year
Use the seventh rounder on the best available player from Rutgers.
 

Granite Sox

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Devizier said:
As for the offensive line, I pointed out some months back that Brian Waters is the only significant offensive lineman the Patriots have signed in their last decade of free agency. They clearly have a method for developing the line, and it's not through free agency.
They had a method (and trust level) developing the line when Scar was the coach. 20+ years with the NEP walked out the door at the end of last season. DeGuglielmo is a real X Factor when it comes to a unit with some real question marks talent- and health-wise. Hard to expect him to make chicken salad out of chickenshit like Scarnecchia did with guys.

I don't know if the available FAs are any good or not, but I think his side of the line needs every bit as much attention as the DL.
 

lambeau

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No hint of interest in free agent pass rush improvement.The one tackle we know interviewed, Guion, is a run stopper.
So--they're counting on Armstead? Waiting for Hageman/Tuitt? Laying in the weeds? I'm hoping Brendan Daly is working his back channel with Jared Allen.
 

Zincman

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Following up on Mugsy's thoughts, a trade out of the 1st round, coupled with a Mallett trade for a pick could net five picks in rounds 2 and 3 where there appears to be outstanding value, especially in those areas where the Pats might most profit.  They would have a really good chance of getting:
One of Amaro, Niklas, or Seferian-Jenkins for a critical need at TE
One or two of Bitonio,Yankey, Su'a-Filo, Marcus Martin and especially Swanson to solve a weakening interior OL issue
One of Jones from Penn State or Johnson from LSU for interior DL help.  Maybe even get lucky if Tuitt falls out of the first.
One of Jeremiah Attaochu, Trevor Reilly or Marcus Smith to supplement the outside rush
One of Shazier, Van Noy or Telvin Smith to add speed to the LB corps
 
This would also afford them the opportunity to pick off one of those high value players that inevitably fall into the second and third rounds.
 
I realize that this is pretty amateurish but its really to point out that trading down might have some merit this year, given the extreme depth of the 2nd and 3rd and particularly how that matches up to the Pats perceived needs.
 

vadertime

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Reardons Beard said:
Allen visited Seattle and then headed home. "Other teams" lining up for pass rusher but very little to go on here.
 
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/writer/jason-la-canfora/24488104/jared-allen-visits-with-seahawks-other-teams-lining-up-for-top-pass-rusher
 
We have need for a pass rusher and we have a member of the coaching staff that was with the Vikings last year, yet the there has really been no talk of any interest between Allen and the Pats.   That to me is at least somewhat telling, be it a financial issue, attitude issue, or ability issue.
 

mpx42

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Allen wants a ton of money and the Patriots HATE defensive ends who don't play the run well - Mark Anderson might have been the exception because he cost nothing. I love the idea but doubt it happens.

No question, they need more pass rush, whether in the draft or elsewhere.