Your Best & Worst Picks of Round 1

SeoulSoxFan

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A Scud Away from Hell
Best Pick: Gonzalez at #17 for the Pats. Call me biased.
Worst Pick: Will McDonald, Jets trading up to get past NE at #15

P. S. Detroit picks are neck-and-neck as the worst but my choices are graded on a curve since it's the Lions.
 

luckiestman

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Call me biased. I got Gonzalez at #17 for the Pats as the worst pick of the draft.

I got Will McDonald, Jets as the best pick of the draft.
 

Mystic Merlin

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Call me biased. I got Gonzalez at #17 for the Pats as the worst pick of the draft.

I got Will McDonald, Jets as the best pick of the draft.
Incomplete. I think you should count the move from 13 to 15 since it bagged Rodgers. My math says that is worth 10,000 draft chart points.
 

JM3

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Lions had a yikes day & botched the gift of the #6 pick from the Rams in the Stafford trade. But Texans had what I can only assume will turn into a historically bad day.

& Cards had a great day. Can only assume they'll be enjoying that Caleb Williams lifestyle next year.

In terms of actual picks?

Best: Gonzalez (bias probably)
Worst: Stroud
 

ehaz

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Gibbs was bad. I don't like Johnston over Zay and Addison. Forbes felt like a bit of a reach. I don't think McDonald is a bad pick.

Best: Nolan Smith, Anthony Richardson, Christian Gonzalez, Dalton Kincaid, JSN, Murphy
 

DanoooME

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To me the best were as follows (and unlike others I won't put Seattle's picks in):

CAR - Bryce Young - Didn't overthink the obvious
PHI - Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith - 2 great picks of big talents that inexplicably slipped
NE - Christian Gonzalez - Can't believe he slipped that far either
BUF - Dalton Kincaid - Worth moving up slightly to get
CIN - Myles Murphy - Another big talent that slipped pretty far

The worst:
IND - Anthony Richardson - He is a top 5 athlete, but he's not (and likely never will be) a top 5 QB (hell, maybe not even top 20), and there's a big difference between the two.
DET - Jack Campbell - People criticize RBs as having low positional value, ILB might be the worst of all other than special teams. Way too early for this guy and he may not even be the best at the position

I don't hate the early RB picks as much as most do. I think the positional value thing has swung radically the other way and I think Robinson will provide positive value for his slot and Gibbs should be close.
 

SMU_Sox

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My top 5 fits/best: Seattle, New England, Philadelphia, NY Jets, and Buffalo.

I am a huge Will McDonald IV fan and think he is a perfect fit for the Jets defense. Kincaid was the number 4 guy on my board and imo the best pass catcher in the draft.

Also like what the Titans, Colts, Ravens, and Vikings did.

I am a huge AR fan and I had 3 QBs this year I thought were worthy of top 5 picks: AR, Stroud, and Young. It wouldn't surprise me at all if in 2-3 years AR is one of the best QBs in the league.
 

sodenj5

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Woke up this morning and saw the Bills drafted Kincaid, and that was my only real “damn it” moment from the draft.

Kincaid looks like he can be a real problem. Obviously not an amazing blocker, but the Bills never run the ball anyways and they gave Josh Allen a very dangerous weapon.

Eagles also got significantly better. They’re going to bulldoze the entire NFC.
 

Jungleland

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The Texans trade back up to 3 has to be the worst pick for me. 33 and a pick that could be first overall in a draft with a potential historic QB prospect for a team that isn’t in GFIN mode. Obviously you don’t give a shit about Williams once you draft Stroud, but the haul that pick could end up being worth….woof. Insult to the “should have had 1 overall this year” injury, I’d be really upset were I a Houston fan.
 

Justthetippett

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The Texans trade back up to 3 has to be the worst pick for me. 33 and a pick that could be first overall in a draft with a potential historic QB prospect for a team that isn’t in GFIN mode. Obviously you don’t give a shit about Williams once you draft Stroud, but the haul that pick could end up being worth….woof. Insult to the “should have had 1 overall this year” injury, I’d be really upset were I a Houston fan.
I would understand being upset, but for teams like Houston that have been mired recently, as a fan would also appreciate the swings they took last night. Old colleague Ossefort put one over Casserio, but they can dream on blue chippers on both sides of the ball. It's a risky approach that has a good chance of running aground, but fans don't get fired so what do they care as long as their team is trying to improve? They could also potentially make another move for a CB here on day 2.
 
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BigSoxFan

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I would understand being upset, but for teams like Houston that have been mired recently, as a fan would also appreciate the swings they took last night. Old colleague Ossefort put one over Casserio, but they can dream on blue chippers on both sides of the ball. It's a risky approach that has a good chance of running aground, but fans don't get fired so what do they care as long as their team is trying to improve? They could also potentially make another move for a CB here on day 2.
I think having Cleveland’s 2024 1st factored into Houston’s decision but it’s pretty clear to me that Houston knows they gave up a top 10 pick and another 3rd. They’re going to suck. They know it. But they just have to not finish dead last and then it’s not the biggest deal. Losing the Williams bounty or Williams himself would be painful.

My biggest problem is that I just don’t see Will Anderson as the guy you make that kind of move for but they clearly think he has “anchor a defense” potential.
 

67YAZ

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I’m more mixed on Carter.

Insane talent, but also real maturity and work ethic questions. It’s exactly the kind of bet that the defending NFC champs should take, especially one that has a very strong veteran culture to bring the kid into. The bust risk is high. For the young man’s sake, I hope he puts all that behind him.

Flowers playing off Jefferson is going to be a nightmare for secondaries. But is Minny going to win every game 52-49? They should have gone Porter or Branch there, give Flores the tools he needs.
 

BigSoxFan

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I’m more mixed on Carter.

Insane talent, but also real maturity and work ethic questions. It’s exactly the kind of bet that the defending NFC champs should take, especially one that has a very strong veteran culture to bring the kid into. The bust risk is high. For the young man’s sake, I hope he puts all that behind him.

Flowers playing off Jefferson is going to be a nightmare for secondaries. But is Minny going to win every game 52-49? They should have gone Porter or Branch there, give Flores the tools he needs.
Flowers went to Ravens. Think you mean Addison?
 

67YAZ

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Flowers went to Ravens. Think you mean Addison?
Brain fart. Yes.

Minny only has 4 picks left in this draft - 87, 119, 158, 211. Barring a major trade to move up, it hard seeing them pulling an impact defender from this draft.
 

67YAZ

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Also not a fan of Chicago taking Wright. Reportedly a number of teams took him off their board due to work ethic concerns. Now he’s on a team with no veteran culture and a strong likelihood that he starts out of necessity. Skoronski or Jones would have been safer bets or grab Gonzalez as a value pick there.

Overall like the cache of picks the Bears assembled.They have a lot of possibilities this year and next.
 

Devizier

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I don't know half as much about NFL prospects that someone like @SMU_Sox has forgotten but mostly the first round seems to have gone pretty reasonably in terms of where players were drafted. The Lions pulled out a few surprises but even they were defensible. I guess they get "worst" for that reason and of course a lot of guys just won't translate that well to the NFL. But it beats me if anyone can pick 'em consistently.

The Texans' trade (up to 3) seemed to be a bad value proposition if only because there is pretty good EDGE depth in the draft and they paid an awful lot to get there.
 

ManicCompression

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I feel like the Lions blew a great chance to build something special. Gibbs, when you just signed Montgomery and already spent a high pick on Deandre Swift recently, seems like a major misallocation of resources (especially when you consider their secondary sucks and Gonzalez was on the board). Campbell, who I'm under the impression can't cover despite his athletic scores, also seems like a luxury for a team with real needs along the defensive front (or they could have built on their strength with someone like Zay Flowers). It's a disappointing series of decision from a team that I'm always rooting for to give something back to their fanbase.
 

DJnVa

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Best Pick: Gonzalez at #17 for the Pats. Call me biased.
Worst Pick: Will McDonald, Jets trading up to get past NE at #15

P. S. Detroit picks are neck-and-neck as the worst but my choices are graded on a curve since it's the Lions.
As someone tweeted last night, "The Lions had a good second round".
 

DJnVa

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The Texans trade back up to 3 has to be the worst pick for me. 33 and a pick that could be first overall in a draft with a potential historic QB prospect for a team that isn’t in GFIN mode.
Don't the Texans also own the Browns pick next year? I thought that was the pick they dealt, not their own.
 

SMU_Sox

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I don't know half as much about NFL prospects that someone like @SMU_Sox has forgotten but mostly the first round seems to have gone pretty reasonably in terms of where players were drafted. The Lions pulled out a few surprises but even they were defensible. I guess they get "worst" for that reason and of course a lot of guys just won't translate that well to the NFL. But it beats me if anyone can pick 'em consistently.

The Texans' trade (up to 3) seemed to be a bad value proposition if only because there is pretty good EDGE depth in the draft and they paid an awful lot to get there.
I feel like the Lions blew a great chance to build something special. Gibbs, when you just signed Montgomery and already spent a high pick on Deandre Swift recently, seems like a major misallocation of resources (especially when you consider their secondary sucks and Gonzalez was on the board). Campbell, who I'm under the impression can't cover despite his athletic scores, also seems like a luxury for a team with real needs along the defensive front (or they could have built on their strength with someone like Zay Flowers). It's a disappointing series of decision from a team that I'm always rooting for to give something back to their fanbase.
Campbell was 17th overall on my non-adjusted for positional value board.

What do you mean he can't cover? He is the best coverage linebacker in zone my friend. He was known for his coverage too.

I think a couple of you have this impression about Campbell and it couldn't be more wrong. If you don't mind me asking where is it coming from?
 

ehaz

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Crazy to think the Lions could have ended up with the exact same haul Philly took.
 

Jimbodandy

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Also not a fan of Chicago taking Wright. Reportedly a number of teams took him off their board due to work ethic concerns. Now he’s on a team with no veteran culture and a strong likelihood that he starts out of necessity. Skoronski or Jones would have been safer bets or grab Gonzalez as a value pick there.

Overall like the cache of picks the Bears assembled.They have a lot of possibilities this year and next.
Was honestly shocked that the Bears didn't take Gonzalez there. I get the whole "protect the franchise" thing, but Gonzo was BPA at a position of need for them.
 

sodenj5

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I think if you’re Detroit, it’s ok to have conviction about players. I don’t think Campbell or Gibbs are going to be bad players.

Obviously the issue is value. They could have come away with those exact same players and traded down and probably gotten and additional second round pick or two.
 

Arroyoyo

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Who takes Levis today?
How about Porter Jr.?
Do the Patriots move up for one of the TE’s?

Some of the talent still available in R2 is stunning.
 

johnmd20

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I think if you’re Detroit, it’s ok to have conviction about players. I don’t think Campbell or Gibbs are going to be bad players.

Obviously the issue is value. They could have come away with those exact same players and traded down and probably gotten and additional second round pick or two.
Detroit's picks were bad. There is no analysis that could signify otherwise. They just signed David Montgomery and they still have Swift and they drafted a RB with their 12th pick, doing the opposite of filling a need and loading up on the least important position in the NFL. There is only one ball.

And Campbell at 18 is also insane. He was widely regarded as a decent 2nd round pick. He's an off the ball player. You can't waste the 18th pick on a decent off the ball LB.

It's not ok to have conviction about players when you're picking players who don't fill needs or are not as good as other options. It's bad management.
 

sodenj5

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Detroit's picks were bad. There is no analysis that could signify otherwise. They just signed David Montgomery and they still have Swift and they drafted a RB with their 12th pick, doing the opposite of filling a need and loading up on the least important position in the NFL. There is only one ball.

And Campbell at 18 is also insane. He was widely regarded as a decent 2nd round pick. He's an off the ball player. You can't waste the 18th pick on a decent off the ball LB.

It's not ok to have conviction about players when you're picking players who don't fill needs or are not as good as other options. It's bad management.
I agree. I know the picks aren’t made in a vacuum. If they walked away with Gibbs at 20-something, Campbell at 30, and stocked 2 extra second rounders, it looks less terrible. Not good, but not awful.

They used a top 15 pick on a guy that will get 10-15 touches a game. While he’s explosive, that’s bad ROI right there.
 

Justthetippett

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I am excited about the TEs that will likely be available. I would also take Levis if he's there. There should also be a few attractive DBs. At this point I'd wait on the O-line until a bit later. They are well positioned in the middle of this draft.
 

PRabbit

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This might sound nuts considering we just picked Gonzalez, but am I wrong to hope for a trade up to snag Porter Jr and get an OT like Bergeron in the 2nd?
 

SMU_Sox

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So one of the cool things about getting into the draft is you are able to network with a lot of coaches. I met 3-4 of them after I wrote about Jack Campbell on Twitter because they reached out to me. I have gotten to know some 20 or so defensive coaches through the process. It's about a 50/50 split between HS and college. The same defensive coaches I talked to who all had Gonzalez CB1, like me, also, like me, had Campbell ILB1 and a first round grade. One of the biggest disconnects in the draft community is off-ball linebacker. The way a lot of coaches scout it is different from guys like Brugler. You really have to understand run-fits, leverage, and responsibilities or you don't know what you are watching. I watch clinics online for example so that I can understand gap and scrape responsibilities and what each ILB is asked to do in each system.

These are the same coaches btw who talked about how Hightower was one of the best off-ball linebackers in the last decade and criminally underrated in the NFL by the fans.

View: https://twitter.com/JohnALimberakis/status/1651974327062130691?s=20
 

SMU_Sox

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This might sound nuts considering we just picked Gonzalez, but am I wrong to hope for a trade up to snag Porter Jr and get an OT like Bergeron in the 2nd?
Yes. Picking Porter would be a waste. He is also not really a great fit for a press-man cover-1 team vs a press-zone team, right? Because with press-man you HAVE to be able to handle in-breakers unless they are running like cover-1 cross or something. Porter is more a traditional PC Seattle cover-3 press zone dude.

As for Bergeron... I have some strong takes but look just watch him vs Notre Dame, FSU, and Clemson. Dude was beaten badly in all 3 games by Early day 1, late day 1, and day 2 edge rushers. I was showing him to @Brand Name last night. He is a FINE IOL prospect. He doesn't have the footwork, recovery, punch, I mean no two ways about it his pass pro is sloppy.

Also, Scar mentioned this but if you can't handle speed to power that is a big red flag. Guess what folks? He can't handle speed to power. Gets his doors blown off.
 

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

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Was honestly shocked that the Bears didn't take Gonzalez there. I get the whole "protect the franchise" thing, but Gonzo was BPA at a position of need for them.
Gonzalez had been plummeting down draft boards for a while. In truth, I think he is pretty darned good, but I understand what seems to be the consensus opinion that he may not be a guy who can be elite. The Bears on the other hand, face up against some teams that can really rush the passer (and don't have much else). It struck me as a decent pick. Not sexy, but decent.
 

BaseballJones

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Gonzalez had been plummeting down draft boards for a while. In truth, I think he is pretty darned good, but I understand what seems to be the consensus opinion that he may not be a guy who can be elite. The Bears on the other hand, face up against some teams that can really rush the passer (and don't have much else). It struck me as a decent pick. Not sexy, but decent.
What's the thing that might keep him from being elite? He's got size, speed, quickness, fluidity, cover skills, and can track the ball with the best of them. He might not be an A+ level tackler/hitter, but other than that, he's got literally everything you'd want in a corner.

Doesn't mean he's an automatic All Pro or anything like that because at the next level, he'll have to up his game even more. But what's the potential issue with him?
 

luckiestman

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What's the thing that might keep him from being elite? He's got size, speed, quickness, fluidity, cover skills, and can track the ball with the best of them. He might not be an A+ level tackler/hitter, but other than that, he's got literally everything you'd want in a corner.
If people evaluated him in the league the same way you are, he doesn’t make it to 17. Stingley and Sauce went 3&4 in a stronger class so the evidence seems to point to Yammer being correct. That doesn’t mean Gonzalez won’t be awesome but it does mean what Yammer is saying appears to be true.
 

RedOctober3829

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Gonzalez had been plummeting down draft boards for a while. In truth, I think he is pretty darned good, but I understand what seems to be the consensus opinion that he may not be a guy who can be elite. The Bears on the other hand, face up against some teams that can really rush the passer (and don't have much else). It struck me as a decent pick. Not sexy, but decent.
His film is on par with anybody's that has come out in the last couple years. He's fluid, extremely athletic, and has great ball skills. The issue with him is that he isn't as flashy or plays with as much of an edge as Witherspoon and a lot of coaches like corners that play a more physical style of game rather than what Gonzalez does. He is a top 5 talent in this draft, but slipped in part to some wonky picks (Detroit's 2 in particular) that came out of left field. He needs to get a little stronger and improve his play in zone, but I'd be pretty surprised if he doesn't develop into a #1 corner.
 

luckiestman

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His film is on par with anybody's that has come out in the last couple years. He's fluid, extremely athletic, and has great ball skills. The issue with him is that he isn't as flashy or plays with as much of an edge as Witherspoon and a lot of coaches like corners that play a more physical style of game rather than what Gonzalez does. He is a top 5 talent in this draft, but slipped in part to some wonky picks (Detroit's 2 in particular) that came out of left field. He needs to get a little stronger and improve his play in zone, but I'd be pretty surprised if he doesn't develop into a #1 corner.
I don’t scout college players but this logic seems suspect. Teams seemed to want to move back, so why did no one come up to get Gonzalez if he is a top 5 talent? If he doesn’t have medical or character concerns, how does a top 5 talent go 17? Also from the college ball I do watch, he doesn’t seem better than Young, Carter, or Robinson so who is the only other player you have over him?

A CB playing for BB drafted 17 should be very good, I’m not saying he won’t be. Some of these comments don’t make sense to me, though.
 

RedOctober3829

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I don’t scout college players but this logic seems suspect. Teams seemed to want to move back, so why did no one come up to get Gonzalez if he is a top 5 talent? If he doesn’t have medical or character concerns, how does a top 5 talent go 17? Also from the college ball I do watch, he doesn’t seem better than Young, Carter, or Robinson so who is the only other player you have over him?

A CB playing for BB drafted 17 should be very good, I’m not saying he won’t be. Some of these comments don’t make sense to me, though.
He has no character concerns that is for sure. Medically, he's fine. He missed 1 game in his career and that is because he opted out of Oregon's bowl game. The reasons I think he fell I listed above.
 

Cellar-Door

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I don’t scout college players but this logic seems suspect. Teams seemed to want to move back, so why did no one come up to get Gonzalez if he is a top 5 talent? If he doesn’t have medical or character concerns, how does a top 5 talent go 17? Also from the college ball I do watch, he doesn’t seem better than Young, Carter, or Robinson so who is the only other player you have over him?

A CB playing for BB drafted 17 should be very good, I’m not saying he won’t be. Some of these comments don’t make sense to me, though.
How did Wilfork drop, he was a monster in college had no concerns, how did Aaron Rodgers slide, sometimes teams just talk themselves out of a guy, or they talk themselves into a position need. Part of the slide was pretty clearly that teams needed OT and felt the drop to the next tier was worse overall than the drop in CB (it's a deep class), only 2 CB went before him, 1 was the guy some felt was the best in the class, a top 5 talent as well, and the other was a very different type of player (Cover 3 experienced ballhawk gambler, vs. pure cover guy).
 

BaseballJones

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If people evaluated him in the league the same way you are, he doesn’t make it to 17. Stingley and Sauce went 3&4 in a stronger class so the evidence seems to point to Yammer being correct. That doesn’t mean Gonzalez won’t be awesome but it does mean what Yammer is saying appears to be true.
So…. What do you think is the thing that makes this otherwise elite CB….. not elite?
 

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

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His film is on par with anybody's that has come out in the last couple years. He's fluid, extremely athletic, and has great ball skills. The issue with him is that he isn't as flashy or plays with as much of an edge as Witherspoon and a lot of coaches like corners that play a more physical style of game rather than what Gonzalez does. He is a top 5 talent in this draft, but slipped in part to some wonky picks (Detroit's 2 in particular) that came out of left field. He needs to get a little stronger and improve his play in zone, but I'd be pretty surprised if he doesn't develop into a #1 corner.
Sauce Gardner and Derek Stingley were drafted last year. Prior to that you had Surtain and Horn, and the year before that you had Okudah and.....some other guy I forget who was tremendous. His film doesn't even sniff these guys, even player to be named later. He is a pretty darned good CB, and a really nice pick at the position. But let's not be silly.
 

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

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So…. What do you think is the thing that makes this otherwise elite CB….. not elite?
He will be the best player of Colombian descent to play in an NFL defensive backfield.

But let's not pretend that he is going to be able to cover Garret Wilson, Stefon Diggs or Tyreek Hill in his first 2-3 seasons without an assload of help. And yes, you define an elite CB by their ability to cover the best receivers in their division with minimal help.