Your 2015 Boston Red Sox

[In my lifetime]

 
 
And that chart doesn't include Rusney. 

 
 
That's an older chart.
The moderators split the AAV chart out from this thread.
It can be found here: http://sonsofsamhorn.net/topic/85624-red-sox-2015-aav/

 

[MakMan44]

Josh Johnson had his option declined by the Padres. I seriously doubt he wants to attempt to rebuild value in Fenway but he'd be such a great low risk signing. 
 
EDIT: For the record, his option was for $4 million and the Padres still turned that down. I'd sign him to that deal in a JM heartbeat. 

 

[MakMan44]

Also, Alex Gordon and Moustakas might be on the trading block this offseason. The latter might not represent much of an upgrade from Middlebrooks, but it's just another name to throw out there as an option. 

 

[MakMan44]

 
Are you speculating on that on your own or did you read that somewhere? I find it tough that either would be. 

http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/baseballinsider/kansas-city-royals-tough-choices-tough-trades-stay-top-alex-gordon-met-blog-entry-1.1993831
 
Saw it on Rotographs, should have double checked the source.

 

[nattysez]

Josh Johnson had his option declined by the Padres. I seriously doubt he wants to attempt to rebuild value in Fenway but he'd be such a great low risk signing. 
 
EDIT: For the record, his option was for $4 million and the Padres still turned that down. I'd sign him to that deal in a JM heartbeat. 

 
Why?  Since the end of the 2010 season, he's pitched 56 major-league games, including zero last year.  When he pitched for Toronto in 2013, he put up a 6.20 ERA over 16 starts.  
 
I could see an argument for signing him to a minor league deal to see if he's got anything left, but anything more than that seems like a terrible idea.

 

[MakMan44]

 
Why?  Since the end of the 2010 season, he's pitched 56 major-league games, including zero last year.  When he pitched for Toronto in 2013, he put up a 6.20 ERA over 16 starts.  
 
I could see an argument for signing him to a minor league deal to see if he's got anything left, but anything more than that seems like a terrible idea.

Because it's a no risk move for a team with a payroll as large as the Red Sox's. If you catch lighting in a bottle, fantastic. If not, 4 million is a drop in the pond for the team. 
 
EDIT:And the only reason he had a 6 ERA in 2013 is due to a career low LOB% and career high HR/FB ratio. 

 

[Rasputin]

Josh Johnson had his option declined by the Padres. I seriously doubt he wants to attempt to rebuild value in Fenway but he'd be such a great low risk signing. 
 
EDIT: For the record, his option was for $4 million and the Padres still turned that down. I'd sign him to that deal in a JM heartbeat. 

 
JM = Junior Mint?
 
If he's in a position where people are declining chump change options, he should be in a position to accept a minor league make good deal.
 
This is, I'm not sure we have room in the Pawtucket rotation for a reclamation project.

 

[MakMan44]

 
I guess if you could get him to agree to a MiL deal with a payout if he makes it to the bigs and he makes his money on incentives, it might not be a horrible decision. But I think it would depend on what the Sox are doing with all those arms in AAA and AA, trading them, promoting them, moving them to the bullpen. Because right now all the slots are full and if you sign someone like Johnson for a make good/get healthy deal, you need a spot for him. I'm not sure the opportunity cost lost is worth the possible upside he bounces back to the guy he was three years ago. 

Johnson wouldn't even be ready to go until the end of April or so. Plenty of time to see what the young pitchers who stick around can do, and I tend to doubt all of them are going to be effective enough to stick around. If they are, and Johnson is healthy and effective as well, I think that's a pretty good problem to have. 

 

[MakMan44]

 
JM = Junior Mint?
 
If he's in a position where people are declining chump change options, he should be in a position to accept a minor league make good deal.
 
This is, I'm not sure we have room in the Pawtucket rotation for a reclamation project.

Johnny Manziel, I was under the impression that was the new "cocaine heartbeat" meme. 
 
When I suggested they sign him to a $ 4 million deal, I was envisioning what Paps suggested, that is a MiL deal with a solid base salary if he makes it back to the majors. Maybe incentive laden, it doesn't really matter. 
 
I'm surprised I'm receiving this much push back though, I understand his injury history is horrible but he is a very, very good pitcher when he is healthy and it really shouldn't cost much at all to see if he can back to that place. 

 

[MakMan44]

See, I disagree we're likely to get the production of a healthy Johnson from any of the kids (EDIT: Maybe Rubby actually) though I concede that unless some of are traded, there really isn't room for him in AAA or the bigs. 
 
EDIT: I guess it doesn't matter one way or the other, as Johnson suggested he has "unfinished business" in SD. Interesting discussion anyway, thanks Ras, Pap, and Natty.

 

[ehaz]

Maybe given his injury situation he'd be amenable to a bullpen role?

 

[RochesterSamHorn]

Just throwing this out there before the hot stove becomes heated with relevant posts.  Doesn't a trade of Mookie Betts for Christian Yelich make complete sense?
I remember hearing how the Red Sox love Yelich, who can play any outfield position, is a LH bat, and is a meticulous, patient hitter. The Marlins have a hole to fill at 2b along with a leadoff hitter. I hate to give up Mookie, but the bottom line is I'd rather have Yelich in the outfield than Betts.

 

[MakMan44]

I don't see much a difference in their respective games. Maybe Yelich ends up with better power numbers than Mookie down the line, but right now I think the only significant difference between the two is that Yelich is probably much better on defense. I just don't see the point of the swap.

 

[Lowrielicious]

I don't see much a difference in their respective games. Maybe Yelich ends up with better power numbers than Mookie down the line, but right now I think the only significant difference between the two is that Yelich is probably much better on defense. I just don't see the point of the swap.

All other things being equal the point would be that the sox are very RHH heavy and Miami need a 2b. 

 

[geoduck no quahog]

Remarkable statistical similarities at the same age (21). I know nothing about Yelich other than stats. He pretty much maintained his stats last year at age 22.
 
Yelich: 273 At Bats; 12 doubles, 1 HR; 10/10 Stolen bases; 31 Walks, 66 K's; .288 / .370 / .396
Betts: 213 At Bats; 12 doubles, 5 HR; 7/10 stolen bases; 21 Walks, 31 K's; .291 / .368 / .444
 
Betts comes off better in a small sample. Looks like he makes more and better contact. No idea about fielding. Yelich has better WAR numbers.
 
Who is this Yelich guy? (23rd pick in the 2010 draft) I keep hearing his name in a Jerry Lewis voice.

 

[someoneanywhere]

Just throwing this out there before the hot stove becomes heated with relevant posts.  Doesn't a trade of Mookie Betts for Christian Yelich make complete sense?
I remember hearing how the Red Sox love Yelich, who can play any outfield position, is a LH bat, and is a meticulous, patient hitter. The Marlins have a hole to fill at 2b along with a leadoff hitter. I hate to give up Mookie, but the bottom line is I'd rather have Yelich in the outfield than Betts.

 
Dunno why you'd do that: you know Betts, you know his ethic, his development, his persona, and his medical history. 
 
And you're not watching (which I say with no ill will or personal feeling at all). Betts doesn't look great out there because he hasn't been out there. Playing a major-league outfield is nothing at all like high school, or even college. If he stays out there and develops he will win a Gold Glove. 

 

[Moosbrugger]

For those that would trade Betts. I wonder who you would have leading off for the Sox in '15. Ellsbury was missed badly last year, and it wasn't for his fielding or power. I just don't see any candidates other than Betts without a trade.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

You could leadoff Rusney. I hope they keep Betts, he could be their best player as soon as 2015. I wouldn't be surprised if most teams prefer Mookie over Xander especially with a switch to more well rounded, athletic players. Mookie does everything well and I wouldn't be shocked if he was a plus defender once he gets a season of reps. Xander's only chance at being a plus defender is a move to 3b.

Please keep Betts unless you are getting elite talents at age 25-26 with 3+ years of control.

 

[TOleary25]

For those that would trade Betts. I wonder who you would have leading off for the Sox in '15.

 
Depends on who you are getting back in the trade. In the above Betts/Yelich swap, I assume Yelich would be the leadoff hitter. The trade makes sense on paper, but I think it's very rare for teams to make that kind of swap. I'm not in favor of moving Betts and I don't think the Sox are either unless its for a big name (Stanton, Strasburg, Sale, etc.)
 

 
Ellsbury was missed badly last year, and it wasn't for his fielding or power. I just don't see any candidates other than Betts without a trade.

 
The Sox would've taken Ellsbury's power in 2013. There was only 3 hitters on the 2014 team (min 200 PA) with an OPS greater than Ellsbury's .781 OPS, and one of them was Betts.

 

[lxt]

I'm kind of looking forward to seeing an OF of Betts, Castillo and Victorino (At least while he's healthy). The OF will be a place for doubles to go and die. If JBJ can learn to hit next season in AAA then that would even be a better OF, one where baseballs go to die, 2016 may be a lot of fun to watch.Naturally, I'm talking from a defensive perspective as I have no idea how well they'd do offensively. Lot of speed on the base paths. Man would Papi and Nap love to have two or three on base each time they got up.

 

[Rasputin]

I'm kind of looking forward to seeing an OF of Betts, Castillo and Victorino (At least while he's healthy). The OF will be a place for doubles to go and die. If JBJ can learn to hit next season in AAA then that would even be a better OF, one where baseballs go to die, 2016 may be a lot of fun to watch.Naturally, I'm talking from a defensive perspective as I have no idea how well they'd do offensively. Lot of speed on the base paths. Man would Papi and Nap love to have two or three on base each time they got up.

 
Marrero, Pedroia, Bradley up the middle is going to be my binky until they pry it from my cold, dead hands. If you had Castillo and Betts out there with JBJ, pitchers would be begging to come here.

 

[CaskNFappin]

 
Marrero, Pedroia, Bradley up the middle is going to be my binky until they pry it from my cold, dead hands. If you had Castillo and Betts out there with JBJ, pitchers would be begging to come here.

Marrero and JBJ in the same lineup, is something other pitchers would beg to pitch against.

 

[soxhop411]

Jeff Passan ‏@JeffPassan 42s42 seconds ago
Source: Rockies decline club option on LHP Brett Anderson. He will be a free agent, and one with a very strong market.
 
 
https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/528637453247467520

 

[MakMan44]

Hasn't he been less healthy than Johnson?

 

[Green Monster]

Fun read and pure speculation.  Tim Dierkers predicts the landing spots for the top 50 FA's
 
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/11/2014-15-top-50-free-agents-with-predictions.html
 
 
Red Sox: Shields, Liriano, Headley
Yankees: Scherzer, Hanley, Grilli
Cubs: Lester, Martin, Robertson, Masterson, Peavy
Tigers: Miller

 

[jimbobim]

Fun read and pure speculation.  Tim Dierkers predicts the landing spots for the top 50 FA's
 
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/11/2014-15-top-50-free-agents-with-predictions.html
 
 
Red Sox: Shields, Liriano, Headley
Yankees: Scherzer, Hanley, Grilli
Cubs: Lester, Martin, Robertson, Masterson, Peavy
Tigers: Miller

 
I sincerely doubt the Cubs will be able to afford the best pitcher catcher and closer on the market. The TV deal may be coming soon for them but there were multiple articles last year mentioning the debt the Owners have to keep servicing as a condition for when Ricketts bought the team from tribune.
 
http://www.csnchicago.com/blog/kapman/ricketts-forced-tribune-take-huge-debt-cubs-purchase
 
“The baseball department is spending every dollar that is allocated to baseball operations,” he said. “Yeah, we’re spending it in the draft and we’re spending it in the minor leagues. There’s only so much you can spend there. We’re also spending every dollar we have available on the Major League payroll. We need a renovated Wrigley Field to produce more revenue. We need new TV deals so we can generate significant local revenue that way.”
 
Adding pitching through free agency is expensive and is a very risky proposition considering the fragile state of health for many major-league arms. When questioned on Opening Day about the cost of adding pitching to the major-league team, Epstein was extremely cautious about building a pitching staff that way.
"There’s some talented arms down there, but they’re not the operative level: starting pitching prospects that you need, the volume that you need to develop one or two or three at the big league level, so that’s made our focus really clear and is what we need to do in the draft to drafting high-volume starting pitching, developing them. We hired a new, and I think excellent, minor league pitching coordinator to help make that happen, so it doesn’t matter whether if I was surprised by it or not. What matters is how we’re addressing it, and we need to really to produce starting pitching internally because you see what the price of starting pitching is from outside the organization. That is unsustainable. Bringing in…trying to only rely on elite starting pitching from outside the organization, I don’t think there’s an organization in baseball that can afford that anymore," Epstein said.
To add it all up, when one looks at the Chicago Cubs it is important to realize that the long-term future has the potential to be great, but the next couple of years could still see their fare share of tough times. 
http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-insider/2014/02/tom-ricketts-probably-not-cheap/

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

Fun read and pure speculation.  Tim Dierkers predicts the landing spots for the top 50 FA's
 
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/11/2014-15-top-50-free-agents-with-predictions.html
 
 
Red Sox: Shields, Liriano, Headley
Yankees: Scherzer, Hanley, Grilli
Cubs: Lester, Martin, Robertson, Masterson, Peavy
Tigers: Miller

I disagree with some of these.

Red Sox: Lester, Headley (even though I prefer Panda if you make me choose)

Yankees: Shields Scherzer Robertson

Dodgers: Miller

Cubs will spend and drive up prices for the big 3 arms but it's going to be interesting between the Yankees and Sox this offseason.

 

[jimbobim]

I disagree with some of these.

Red Sox: Lester, Headley (even though I prefer Panda if you make me choose)

Yankees: Shields Scherzer Robertson

Dodgers: Miller

Cubs will spend and drive up prices for the big 3 arms but it's going to be interesting between the Yankees and Sox this offseason.

 
Largely agree because the Sox probably won't match Miller's price but is there a chance the lux tax makes Shields Scherzer Robertson another 400 million dollars in offseason personnel commitments for the bombers on top of A-rod's salary counting again?
 
I mean they have the needs but that is mind numbing  money for one elite SP an above average SP and a closer. I don't think Robertson takes the QO. 
 
Should be one of the more entertaining off seasons in a while.  

 

[lxt]

The Yankees are not going after every pitcher. I think they'll be focused on one maybe two starters along with Robertson. If Maeda is posted I imagine they'll be in on him. Scherzer I think will be another of their targets. I don't think they'll do much on the Lester front other than muck up the waters a bit for Boston. The Cubs and Mariners are who Boston will need to worry about when it comes to Lester. Shields may find himself odd man out until Scherzer and Lester are settled. Shield's will likely come with a QO and thus a draft pick. Miller is another of those guys where I don't know who is going to jump into the mix. Dodgers, Detroit are both possibilities for Miller. Hanley may go to the Yankees as they'll want his offense and will likely settle for him at short, at least in the near future. But they'll likely have to fight with a few other teams to get his services. Not sure about Panda. I'd be concerned if he ends up in Boston, for his physical conditioning not his play, personality or desire. Cubs may get Tomas and the 2nd level starters.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

I really hope the Red Sox just wrap up Lester and trade for another starting pitcher as soon as possible. All this Shields speculation is making me sick to my stomach.
 
Even more infuriating is that people continue to call him "Big Game" - even after he sucked throughout the entire playoffs.

 

[Doctor G]

I really hope the Red Sox just wrap up Lester and trade for another starting pitcher as soon as possible. All this Shields speculation is making me sick to my stomach.
 
Even more infuriating is that people continue to call him "Big Game" - even after he sucked throughout the entire playoffs.

I think Ervin Santana will turn out to be  better value than Shields. I'd be happy with Santana  Masterson and  Miller. That would probably be about 33M next year.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

I really hope the Red Sox just wrap up Lester and trade for another starting pitcher as soon as possible. All this Shields speculation is making me sick to my stomach.
 
Even more infuriating is that people continue to call him "Big Game" - even after he sucked throughout the entire playoffs.

Agreed 100% with this. I just don't see why Lester isn't the #1 option.

Post season success. Check
Can pitch under pressure in a big market. Check
No compensation needed to acquire him. Check

Nothing else really matters. Just sign him quick and get it over with.

 

[The Boomer]

Lester, Headley and a trade for Cueto (or an available quality starter in their prime), some bullpen arms and I'd be happy.

 

[Rasputin]

Lester, Headley and a trade for Cueto (or an available quality starter in their prime), some bullpen arms and I'd be happy.

 
Lester, any halfways decent third baseman, and any starting pitcher who can be a #2 even if you have to squint to see it, and I'm happy.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Lester, Headley and a trade for Cueto (or an available quality starter in their prime), some bullpen arms and I'd be happy.

 
I'd be doing back flips if they pulled this off. That's not to say they can't, or won't, but this has to be seen as pretty close to the best case scenario for the off season.

 

[lxt]

 
I'd be doing back flips if they pulled this off. That's not to say they can't, or won't, but this has to be seen as pretty close to the best case scenario for the off season.

That's almost worth seeing.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

So yeah, I think the 2015 Sox will be exciting.
 
 
And fwiw, I don't think there is any way that Lester is coming back.  The team just isn't going to pay that money.

 

[URI]

If you want to talk about the quality of the board, or ideas to improve it, take it to Backwash where those discussions belong.
 
Please don't post in here if it doesn't have to deal specifically with the 2015 Red Sox team.

 

[soxhop411]

So.... This is interesting...
 
Jay Alou ‏@JAloujr 8m8 minutes ago
Yasmany Tomas worked out at the Red Sox academy. Balls were punished over trees to all fields! #smellbaseball #Power
 

 
https://twitter.com/JAloujr/status/528987442771415040

 

[ivanvamp]

Sox' needs:  
 
#1 SP
#2-3 SP
3b
bullpen arm
veteran C
 
I think the bullpen can probably be handled largely from within.  Tazawa, Uehara, Layne, Britton, Mujica, Hembree, Wilson.  That would probably be a solid enough pen.  3b should come down to Headley or Panda, but I'd still like them to explore Beltre.  
 
SP is the key.  You pencil in Buchholz, Kelly, RDLR.  Lester should be the #1 target, for reasons Tyrone Biggums pointed out.  Lester is everything they want/need.  Then you have all kinds of time to go get a #2-3 SP, by sign or by trade.  
 
They have the money.  Lester, Liriano, Headley, for example (though I'm not a big Liriano fan).
 
SP - Lester, Buchholz, Liriano, Kelly, RDLR
RP - Tazawa, Uehara, Layne, Britton, Mujica, Hembree, Wilson
 
C - Vazquez
1b - Napoli
2b - Pedroia
3b - Headley
SS - Bogaerts
LF - Cespedes
CF - Castillo
RF - Victorino
DH - Ortiz
Bench - veteran C, Craig, Betts (super sub who plays nearly every day, somewhere), Holt
 
Lineup:
Betts (let's say he's in for Victorino this day)
Pedroia
Ortiz
Cespedes
Napoli
Headley
Castillo
Bogaerts
Vazquez
 
Good power with Ortiz, Cespedes, Napoli, Castillo, Bogaerts.
Good speed with Betts, Pedroia, Castillo.
Good defense all over the field.
 
That team right there immediately competes for a division title.  

 

[Plympton91]

I think the bullpen can probably be handled largely from within.  Tazawa, Uehara, Layne, Britton, Mujica, Hembree, Wilson.  That would probably be a solid enough pen.  

Holland, Davis, and Hererra it ain't.

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

Holland, Davis, and Hererra it ain't.

 
Uehara is as good as any of those if he's healthy. But I don't think any World Series winner of the past decade has had a bullpen as good as KC's was this year, including the 2014 SF Giants.

 

[soxhop411]

if we are going after Tomas, I would assume this means Mookie or Castillo will be traded?

 

[E5 Yaz]

It could just be that Tomas worked out at the Red Sox site with several teams in attendance

 

[Rasputin]

Marrero and JBJ in the same lineup, is something other pitchers would beg to pitch against.

 
Not necessarily.

 

[ArgentinaSOXfan]

if we are going after Tomas, I would assume this means Mookie or Castillo will be traded?

 
I would give better odds to Cespedes being the odd man out. 

 

[Rasputin]

if we are going after Tomas, I would assume this means Mookie or Castillo will be traded?

 
When I had a concern about signing Tomas earlier, folks rushed to assure me that he was going to need a year in the minors, which means he could very well be a Napoli replacement/Papi insurance.

 

[Drek717]

 
When I had a concern about signing Tomas earlier, folks rushed to assure me that he was going to need a year in the minors, which means he could very well be a Napoli replacement/Papi insurance.

I think the concern with Tomas needing a year in the minors is if he'd be willing to do that versus picking a team that assures him of being on the ML roster day one.  If he is ok with a year of AAA to tune up then he's a great fit for Boston.  Victorino and Cespedes are on one year deals.  So is Napoli and Ortiz is an option.  Assuming Castillo and Betts are CF/RF, you would still need LF, 1B, and possibly DH for the 2016 Sox.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

Sox' needs:  
 
#1 SP
#2-3 SP
3b
bullpen arm
veteran C
 
I think the bullpen can probably be handled largely from within.  Tazawa, Uehara, Layne, Britton, Mujica, Hembree, Wilson.  That would probably be a solid enough pen.  3b should come down to Headley or Panda, but I'd still like them to explore Beltre.  
 
SP is the key.  You pencil in Buchholz, Kelly, RDLR.  Lester should be the #1 target, for reasons Tyrone Biggums pointed out.  Lester is everything they want/need.  Then you have all kinds of time to go get a #2-3 SP, by sign or by trade.  
 
They have the money.  Lester, Liriano, Headley, for example (though I'm not a big Liriano fan).
 
SP - Lester, Buchholz, Liriano, Kelly, RDLR
RP - Tazawa, Uehara, Layne, Britton, Mujica, Hembree, Wilson
 
C - Vazquez
1b - Napoli
2b - Pedroia
3b - Headley
SS - Bogaerts
LF - Cespedes
CF - Castillo
RF - Victorino
DH - Ortiz
Bench - veteran C, Craig, Betts (super sub who plays nearly every day, somewhere), Holt
 
Lineup:
Betts (let's say he's in for Victorino this day)
Pedroia
Ortiz
Cespedes
Napoli
Headley
Castillo
Bogaerts
Vazquez
 
Good power with Ortiz, Cespedes, Napoli, Castillo, Bogaerts.
Good speed with Betts, Pedroia, Castillo.
Good defense all over the field.
 
That team right there immediately competes for a division title.  

 
That pretty much brings them up to the Tax Max, allowing ~ $3M for a B/U catcher.
 
That's assuming the numbers from the other thread ($140M) + $2M Uehara + $24M Lester + $12M Liriano + $10M Headley = $188M w/o Badenhop - who deserves to be re-signed.
 
I don't like it because it spends too much money at 3B, still has a surplus of outfielders ($22M tied up in Cespedes and Victorino) and not enough money for pitching.

 

[lxt]

I think I'd prefer Boomer's Lester, Headley and a trade for Cueto than Ivanvamp's  Lester, Liriano and Headley. Need Miller in the pen. Cueto will likely cost the Sox Cespedes, RDLR & Mujica. But I like Castillo, Betts & Victorino in the OF with JBJ as a backup. Would keep Craig unless the Sox sign Tomas (1B/DH).
 
SP - Lester, Cueto, Buchholz, Kelly, Webster
RP - Tazawa, Uehara, Miller, Layne, Workman, Wright, Wilson
 
C - Vazquez
1B - Napoli
2B - Pedroia
3B - Headley
SS - Bogaerts
LF - Castillo
CF - Betts
RF - Victorino
DH - Ortiz
Bench - Swihart (May be a tad optimistic here), Craig, JBJ & Holt
 
Lineup:
Betts
Victorino/Castillo
Pedroia
Ortiz
Napoli
Headley
Bogaerts
Castillo/Victorino
Vazquez
 
Good mixture of power, speed, excellent defense, OBP & hitting. Pitching would be, generally solid, with the defense making the later three better than anticipated.
 
Castillo, Betts, Bogaerts, Headley, Victorino, Craig and Pedroia can all hit 12 - 20 HRs each. Run that through Markov's Run Expectancies (Does he have one for pitching?) and I imagine you'd have a solid 800 - 850 runs. The staff and pen would likely give up 650 - 695 runs. Nice run differential.
 
That team right there immediately competes for a division title.