Yankees Trade Rumors & News

jon abbey

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If they can get Happ for Drury then that would be a steal. He's useless for this team.
And in a nutshell that is why this is my preferred place to talk baseball, as I have been arguing essentially this on nyyfans just now but with multiple lengthy posts and not getting much agreement. Then I come here and see that you have essentially expressed my perspective on the matter in under 20 words, well done.

I'm not especially pro or con Happ, I actually think that if they get him and they can get value back for Gray (both MIL and OAK are evidently hot for him, MIL has his Vanderbilt pitching coach and OAK of course was where he was great before), I would move Gray and keep the 5th spot open for some combo of Cessa/Sheffield/Loaisiga as it is now. That probably doesn't help so much this year (although I'd much prefer Happ in a postseason game to Gray) but it gets them out of the last year of Gray's deal (probably $9-10M range) and allows them to try to upgrade that spot for 2019 (Patrick Corbin?).
 

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Reading NYYFans is a reminder that SoSH remains the best place for Yankees discussion. My eyes hurt after trying to see the responses you received after Jon made very reasonable points, like Drury's advanced age. I saw nothing other to support these counterpoints of keeping the Muffin Man, save intuition. Imagine if a baseball FO operated like that? No stats, no scouting work, nothing. As a bigger fan of baseball, I'd happily post on such a Yankee board of similar quality if it existed, but it's clearly not there on NYYFans collectively. RAB's comments section shunned me when I tried to discuss xwOBA in player evals. Still think Axisa's work is top stuff, but yeah, that's not quite enough for consideration of commenting there regularly.

As to keep on topic, I agree with the sentiments shared by folks here. Drury doesn't have a lane to enter the big club with, be it the short or long term, especially given what I think the lower/left side of the bell curve looks like from a guy such as Wade/Estrada. I mean, that's the tip of the iceberg, between Garcia, Holder, Park, Duran thinking potentially a bit longer out, to counter the long-term questions that board is posing.
 

jon abbey

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Yes, exactly, and even that lengthy list leaves out Abiatal Avelino, a 23 year old Dominican SS who is good defensively and has 13 HRs and 21 SBs in 356 ABs between AA/AAA this year, .823 OPS. Wade and Holder and Avelino (and Estrada if he returns to health) are all much better defensive options than Drury, who has yet to come close to showing the offense needed to overlook his meh defense.
 

crow216

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NYYF is like a really ugly ex girlfriend. Every once in awhile you check out her facebook pics to see what she's up to and then remember how happy you are without her. The posting there is lazy, stupid, and there are personalities that destroy every thread with name-calling and relentless attacks.

I've tried to post there, it just doesn't make any sense. It's the WFAN hotline of forums.
 

ThePrideofShiner

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Sherman says it is close.


Sherman: I hear that if the deal gets done -- and it is not in physicals yet from what I understand, so still some distance to cross -- Brandon Drury would be key piece going to Blue Jays from Yankees for Happ. But not done yet.
 

TFisNEXT

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Happ has owned the Red Sox recently too. I'm sure the Yankees are aware of it. He's a solid get for them at the back of the rotation.
 

jon abbey

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Mookie Betts says hold my beer. I can't wait to see him next weekend.
That was the end of a 40 pitch inning, and it should have been an out much earlier in the AB also if a foul pop wasn't dropped. Happ has very good numbers against the AL East, looking forward to him.

I'm just back home, I will miss McKinney but this is good news for Frazier and Wade and Andujar, all obviously young players who Cashman prefers.

Now I would trade Shreve and Warren and see what the market is for Gray. It would be a little ballsy to move Gray especially with German leaving today's AAA game hurt, but it would free up his spot for next year.

Also this frees up two more 40 man spots for the rule 5, that is 4 this week.
 

hbk72777

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amazing that the Yankees get any value for Drury who brings nothing to the table

low OBA, bad fielder and a poor baserunner
And in the off season, Cashman will probably find another cost controlled, underrated player for practically nothing

I mean, he's done it with Swisher, Hicks, Didi etc.
 

StuckOnYouk

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Happ has been great against us except the last game and bird probably drops that pop up as well if he even gets a glove on it
Regardless good pick up for NY
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, most of those Sox teams didn't have JD Martinez, but given the actual alternatives, I like the Happ pickup. I love that Cashman has managed to protect all the guys he really likes and has been dealing from the next tier (Tate, Carroll, Drury, McKinney).
 

StuckOnYouk

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To me McKinney should be the piece that excites Toronto more than Drury
23 years old at AAA and he’s got 13 HR in just over 220 at bats. Of course his OBP is just south of .300
Kid could be a very good OF for them for the next 6 years time will tell.
I think Drury could be a solid player for them at 2B if he stays healthy
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, McKinney is interesting, first round pick by the A's who has been traded three times now. His power has really taken off in the last year or so, I liked him but like Drury, he was very unlikely to get much of a shot with NY barring a wave of injuries.
 

jon abbey

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Where was McKinney in there top 10 prospects list?
MLB.com had him at #20 on the new list out today, I always thought he was a bit underrated as a former top 100 overall prospect but also the bar is high for corner outfielders (and he can't play CF), he also has played a bit of first recently.
 

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Two reactions.

One, a market correction could well be in order. Happ has been much better against the Sox over this period than he has been in general. Unless he gets an adrenaline boost when he faces Boston, I would expect that to normalize.

Two, it’s not just the JDM difference. Every team is different. The Sox offense in 2018, performance wise, bears little resemblance to the Sox offense in 2017, much less the two prior years. To be sure, there are some cross over players, but there are a lot of differences.

Putting all that aside, Happ is indeed a good get, and the price seems reasonable. I’m just not stressed about this based on Happ’s record against different Sox teams.
 

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With this trade, every team in the AL East has completed at least one intradivision trade this month. That feels rather uncommon.

This looks like a solid deal for Cashman. Given how much Frazier has been blocked, McKinney has to be even more so, and frankly, he's someone who borders on a To Tell The Truth contestant: Will the real Billy McKinney please stand up? Should be said, Happ's bbFIP is 3.49; this is batted ball FIP, not relative to league average, but uses the player's actual batted ball. It is a positive (in Happ's favor) of 0.73 runs contrasted with vanilla ERA, and -.022 xOBP.-OBP; currently .319, Statcast says .297. This all amounts to an xwOBA+ allowed of 84.2, or 15.8% above average. A close comp to this number, for context, is Cleveland's Carlos Carrasco, himself at an 85.0.

This warrants a separate side point because I'm amazed by this: Happ's Poor Hit (worst contact, the anti-barrel) per PA, or PH%, is at 26.3% this season, where 25 percent or greater is elite for pitchers. Happ has hit this benchmark each of the last four seasons. This figure exceeds not only Chris Sale and Max Scherzer at 25.7% and 25.1% this season respectively, but also six of their eight aggregate seasons in which this data is available.
 

jon abbey

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One, a market correction could well be in order. Happ has been much better against the Sox over this period than he has been in general. Unless he gets an adrenaline boost when he faces Boston, I would expect that to normalize.
Maybe, but Sabathia has also been mostly great against BOS in recent years and is a somewhat similar type of lefty. They seem to have a bit of an Achilles' heel when it comes to lefties, maybe Pearce has helped change that but we'll see.
 

jon abbey

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This warrants a separate side point because I'm amazed by this: Happ's Poor Hit (worst contact, the anti-barrel) per PA, or PH%, is at 26.3% this season, where 25 percent or greater is elite for pitchers. Happ has hit this benchmark each of the last four seasons. This figure exceeds not only Chris Sale and Max Scherzer at 25.7% and 25.1% this season respectively, but also six of their eight aggregate seasons in which this data is available.
Sabathia is really high on this list also, I think NY needs to not pitch them on back to back days because they seem roughly similar, as I said in the previous post.
 

jon abbey

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Two, it’s not just the JDM difference. Every team is different. The Sox offense in 2018, performance wise, bears little resemblance to the Sox offense in 2017, much less the two prior years. To be sure, there are some cross over players, but there are a lot of differences.
Just because I just came across this:

JA Happ vs. BOS (career):

vs. Betts: 6-32, 2 HR
vs. JD Martínez: 4-15, 3 K’s
vs. Benintendi: 0-15, 6 K’s
vs. Bogaerts: 4-26, 4 K’s
vs. Bradley: 3-18, 6 K’s
 

jon abbey

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I think this buys Shreve a few more days (although it is still just delaying the inevitable), Cessa can go back down and Britton can take his spot, then Happ can be activated when it is his turn to start and NY can drop one of their nine (!) relievers then.
 

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I'm happy for all the reasons stated. Happ isn't exciting, but he doesn't need to be to firm up the back end of the rotation. Cost was reasonable.
 

snowmanny

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Just because I just came across this:

JA Happ vs. BOS (career):

vs. Betts: 6-32, 2 HR
vs. JD Martínez: 4-15, 3 K’s
vs. Benintendi: 0-15, 6 K’s
vs. Bogaerts: 4-26, 4 K’s
vs. Bradley: 3-18, 6 K’s

Betts started out 5 for his first 31 with 1 HR vs Happ

Sorry. Couldn’t let that pass.
 

jon abbey

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Pearce has great numbers against Happ, really a nice pickup there by DD.
 

JimD

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I'm happy for all the reasons stated. Happ isn't exciting, but he doesn't need to be to firm up the back end of the rotation. Cost was reasonable.
Funny, it's how most Sox fans probably feel about the Eovaldi pickup. Nice to get to follow a well-run franchise.
 

Wingack

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Fact of the matter is, they have significantly improved there pitching for this year, while not really hurting the club's future.

And I like a lot of the pieces that got dealt.
 

hbk72777

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Keith Law on the Jays return for Happ: "The Jays' return here is rather disappointing, even for a rental. Brandon Drury is a solid bench player who can play third and first and maybe fill in at second." Says he doesn't see a big league role for McKinney.

More Law: " I thought that the Jays would land at least one solid prospect for Happ, but either the market didn't offer one or they chose to take Drury instead of someone with higher ceiling."

Seems a little extreme.

Thoughts?
 

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Since Cessa was just sent down, I'd say that's a safe bet. :)
So, as of now, what does that make Boston series look like next week, with respect to pitching matchups? Right now, I've got projected:

8/2: Sabathia vs. Sale
8/3: Severino vs. Porcello
8/4*: Tanaka vs. Eovaldi
8/5: Happ vs. Johnson(?)

*I care way too much about this game, scored an incredible Field Box seat a few rows behind home on the cheap. First time ever getting a really premium position to watch from.
 

jon abbey

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The Yankee side of that I think is correct, dunno about the Boston side.
 

jon abbey

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Keith Law on the Jays return for Happ: "The Jays' return here is rather disappointing, even for a rental. Brandon Drury is a solid bench player who can play third and first and maybe fill in at second." Says he doesn't see a big league role for McKinney.

More Law: " I thought that the Jays would land at least one solid prospect for Happ, but either the market didn't offer one or they chose to take Drury instead of someone with higher ceiling."

Seems a little extreme.

Thoughts?
I feel like if we went just by Law's projections, teams would only have about 15 players apiece and maybe 1-2 SPs. Every pitcher projects to a reliever, he seems at least once notch unrealistically tough a good bit of the time. That said, I will be pretty surprised if either of these guys ends up developing into above average regulars.
 

TFisNEXT

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Two reactions.

One, a market correction could well be in order. Happ has been much better against the Sox over this period than he has been in general. Unless he gets an adrenaline boost when he faces Boston, I would expect that to normalize.

Two, it’s not just the JDM difference. Every team is different. The Sox offense in 2018, performance wise, bears little resemblance to the Sox offense in 2017, much less the two prior years. To be sure, there are some cross over players, but there are a lot of differences.

Putting all that aside, Happ is indeed a good get, and the price seems reasonable. I’m just not stressed about this based on Happ’s record against different Sox teams.
I'd expect the numbers against Happ to normalize some as well. Most of the samples are pretty small (only Xander/Mookie/Nunez/Pearce are over 25 ABs for active players) and the BABIP is .224. Maybe the normalization was already underway in his last start against Boston.

Still, I agree he is a very solid pitcher. I'd take him if we already didn't have a million lefties.