Xander's pending post-opt-out free agency

mauf

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XB has an 820 OPS since May 1, and unless things change markedly in the second half, he’s going to post his worst power numbers since 2017. Half a season isn’t definitive by any means, but so far the FO’s decision not to seriously pursue an extension looks like a good one.
 

OCD SS

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Xander is looking at his third straight year of a decline in his slg%. He's managed to keep his overall offensive production this year based on his increased OBP, but that's mostly driven by one of his best batting averages. The question is how long can he maintain his offense as he looses his power, and what happens to his value as he inevitably slides down the defensive spectrum?
 

Manramsclan

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Bob Nightengale is not even close to the last word on this. I would take this report with a giant grain of salt. "Several executives" also have a vested interest in steering a rival's franchise shortstop to a non-contender. This is barely newsworthy.
 

jon abbey

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Bob Nightengale is not even close to the last word on this. I would take this report with a giant grain of salt. "Several executives" also have a vested interest in steering a rival's franchise shortstop to a non-contender. This is barely newsworthy.
Fully agreed, Nightengale is wrong more often than not, and he is manipulated by teams circulating fake info constantly, something like Heyman with Boras except Nightengale will seemingly print any rumor from anyone.
 

nvalvo

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I just had this thought sitting at Wrigley the other day, mentally ticking through the bigger-market teams.

NYY shouldn't be interested. NYM has Lindor. LAD should retain Turner. Houston has Peña. SF has Marco Luciano coming. CWS has Tim Anderson. STL, Toronto, TB, and Washington have young homegrown stars at SS. That leaves, like, Seattle? Philadelphia? Minnesota if Correa opts out? Anaheim? Baltimore? I'm not sure I see Xander leaving Boston for any of those teams unless the gap in offers is pretty huge. Oakland, KC, Cinci, Milwaukee, and Miami are not likely playing in the $25m/annum SS market.

The Cubs seem like one of the few franchises — maybe Philly? — that might not feel like a step down, and they should be spending again with a few of their big commitments nearing their end.
 

scottyno

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Several executives are predicting that every big name will sign with every big market team
 

LogansDad

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Seattle has JP who is close to GG. Minnesota has Royce Lewis if he comes back from his Swiharting.

I agree it's basically the Sox, Cubs or Philly, but don't sleep on Nico and Stott, either.
 

radsoxfan

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Half a season isn’t definitive by any means, but so far the FO’s decision not to seriously pursue an extension looks like a good one.
Rough crowd.

3.3 WAR by Fangraphs (12th in the majors). 3.0 WAR BRef.

OBP a bit up, SLG a bit down. Def numbers maybe a little better than reality. Looking at a 6 WAR season, potentially the best of his career.

Who knows what will happen in the second half, but in no way is Xander having a bad season or the kind of year the FO is saying "phew, good thing we didn't sign him to that extension".
 

scottyno

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Rough crowd.

3.3 WAR by Fangraphs (12th in the majors). 3.0 WAR BRef.

OBP a bit up, SLG a bit down. Def numbers maybe a little better than reality. Looking at a 6 WAR season, potentially the best of his career.

Who knows what will happen in the second half, but in no way is Xander having a bad season or the kind of year the FO is saying "phew, good thing we didn't sign him to that extension".
His BABIP is sky high and his power is way down, so while he certainly isn't having a "bad" year, whether they'd be happy with an extension or not at this point would depend entirely on what one looked like. The perception of his season would look a lot different if his BABIP were a bit more normalized.

His batted ball peripherals are nearly all worse than last year, yet he has better stats because his BABIP is 56 points higher.
 
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And who replaces him - Arroyo next year? a rookie Mayer in '24? It's a step back for two years and for what - foregoing an 8 year contract at maybe 190 mill? Hell, he is in great shape with no real injury history and 8 years takes him only through his age 38 season.

I'm guessing Xander wants length in his contract rather than huge yearly numbers which may not be so readily available anyway to the rising class of free agent shortstops. I think, too, that signing him makes it easier to retain his buddy Devers.

We all like Red Sox like Ortiz and Pedroia who loved playing in Boston and didn't push for the last penny. I think we have two such players in Devers and Xander. Let's not push them away without a good faith offer.
 

scottyno

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And who replaces him - Arroyo next year? a rookie Mayer in '24? It's a step back for two years and for what - foregoing an 8 year contract at maybe 190 mill? Hell, he is in great shape with no real injury history and 8 years takes him only through his age 38 season.

I'm guessing Xander wants length in his contract rather than huge yearly numbers which may not be so readily available anyway to the rising class of free agent shortstops. I think, too, that signing him makes it easier to retain his buddy Devers.

We all like Red Sox like Ortiz and Pedroia who loved playing in Boston and didn't push for the last penny. I think we have two such players in Devers and Xander. Let's not push them away without a good faith offer.
If 8-190 would get it done they probably would have already done it.

As to who replaces him if they don't bring him back it's way too early to say because who knows what the market is going to look like. Maybe one of the top guys wants to go the Correa route and take huge money for 1-3 years, which would actually be a pretty perfect bridge for the Sox.
 

sodenj5

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And who replaces him - Arroyo next year? a rookie Mayer in '24? It's a step back for two years and for what - foregoing an 8 year contract at maybe 190 mill? Hell, he is in great shape with no real injury history and 8 years takes him only through his age 38 season.

I'm guessing Xander wants length in his contract rather than huge yearly numbers which may not be so readily available anyway to the rising class of free agent shortstops. I think, too, that signing him makes it easier to retain his buddy Devers.

We all like Red Sox like Ortiz and Pedroia who loved playing in Boston and didn't push for the last penny. I think we have two such players in Devers and Xander. Let's not push them away without a good faith offer.
I mean, it’s pretty obvious Trevor Story would be the full time SS if Xander leaves.

Mayer is at lest 2 more years away, probably 3. Much easier to find a replacement level 2B than an All-Star SS, which the Sox already signed in Story.

FWIW, if I have to choose between X and Raffy long term, I let Xander walk and sign Devers long term at this stage in their careers 100/100.
 

grimshaw

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Rough crowd.

3.3 WAR by Fangraphs (12th in the majors). 3.0 WAR BRef.

OBP a bit up, SLG a bit down. Def numbers maybe a little better than reality. Looking at a 6 WAR season, potentially the best of his career.

Who knows what will happen in the second half, but in no way is Xander having a bad season or the kind of year the FO is saying "phew, good thing we didn't sign him to that extension".
If anything, reversing the defensive decline from last season has outweighed the dip in slugging. And there's no reason to believe the power has suddenly disappeared.

This season will scare no potential buyers away.
 

Pat Spillane

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Not sure he is worth the investment he will be looking for at this age. Seems like he might have a few signs of decline already. Think a Red Sox extnesion will lead to regret on our part sooner rather than later
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I mean, it’s pretty obvious Trevor Story would be the full time SS if Xander leaves.

Mayer is at lest 2 more years away, probably 3. Much easier to find a replacement level 2B than an All-Star SS, which the Sox already signed in Story.

FWIW, if I have to choose between X and Raffy long term, I let Xander walk and sign Devers long term at this stage in their careers 100/100.
Isn’t Story’s arm significantly reduced in strength? Somewhere on these boards is a insinuation that he couldn’t play SS any longer. He couldn’t make throws across the diamond.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I mean, it’s pretty obvious Trevor Story would be the full time SS if Xander leaves.

Mayer is at lest 2 more years away, probably 3. Much easier to find a replacement level 2B than an All-Star SS, which the Sox already signed in Story.

FWIW, if I have to choose between X and Raffy long term, I let Xander walk and sign Devers long term at this stage in their careers 100/100.
There's nothing obvious about Story being the SS next year if Bogaerts leaves. They seem fairly committed to him being a second baseman, evidenced by the fact that even when opportunities have presented themselves, Story still hasn't played an inning at SS all season. Arroyo and Arauz and even Kike have had starts or filled in mid-game at SS, but not once has Story been shifted over. That has to mean something.
 

sodenj5

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There's nothing obvious about Story being the SS next year if Bogaerts leaves. They seem fairly committed to him being a second baseman, evidenced by the fact that even when opportunities have presented themselves, Story still hasn't played an inning at SS all season. Arroyo and Arauz and even Kike have had starts or filled in mid-game at SS, but not once has Story been shifted over. That has to mean something.
It probably means that he’s new to second base and they’d like to continue giving him as many innings there as possible in the event that Xander does remain on the team and that remains Story’s position long term.

You remove Xander from the roster, and I promise you they aren’t going to view Kiké as his successor.

Story has had a history of elbow issues the last few seasons, but everything I’ve seen reports there’s nothing wrong structurally with his elbow.

Going into next season without Xander, they’d be fools not to allow Story every opportunity to play himself out of SS.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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It probably means that he’s new to second base and they’d like to continue giving him as many innings there as possible in the event that Xander does remain on the team and that remains Story’s position long term.

You remove Xander from the roster, and I promise you they aren’t going to view Kiké as his successor.

Story has had a history of elbow issues the last few seasons, but everything I’ve seen reports there’s nothing wrong structurally with his elbow.

Going into next season without Xander, they’d be fools not to allow Story every opportunity to play himself out of SS.
I don't buy it. A couple innings here and there at SS is not going to throw off Story's transition to 2B. Actually, I'd say Story looks extremely comfortable there and would be fine moving over to SS for a game (or inning) or two with no ill effects. Hell, A-Rod played a few innings at SS during his first couple years with the Yankees and they knew Jeter wasn't going anywhere. I'm not saying that Story can't be the SS in the future. I'm only questioning how "obvious" it is that he's the heir apparent. That was the thinking in March when he signed, but I don't believe it's obvious at all now.

And nowhere was I (or anyone) trying to argue that the Sox see Kike (or Arroyo) as Bogaerts' successor. For one, Kike's gone after this season too. For another, there's a fairly robust market for SS this winter. Tim Anderson , Carlos Correa, and Elvis Andrus also have options that could make them free agents. Didi Gregorius, Dansby Swanson, and Trea Turner are free agents to be. There's a chance that if Bogaerts goes, the Sox could go big for someone better (Correa or Turner), or they could pick up another former all star in the same fashion they got Story (the odd man out in the game of musical chairs).

My preference is they re-sign Bogaerts. It isn't the end of the world if they don't.
 

jon abbey

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Isn’t Story’s arm significantly reduced in strength? Somewhere on these boards is a insinuation that he couldn’t play SS any longer. He couldn’t make throws across the diamond.
Ken Rosenthal wrote about this in The Athletic a few days ago, he hasn't cracked 80 MPH on any throws this year but also it''s possible he hasn't needed to. You guys who watch him every day would have a better idea about this.

=======================

Story, according to Statcast, had not touched 80 mph on a throw entering Friday night’s play and had reached that velocity only once since the start of Aug. 2021, when he was still the Rockies’ shortstop. Prior to that, he had more than 150 throws of 80 mph since 2017. His hardest throw this season was 78.2 mph, and it completed an excellent play.

One caveat is that second basemen do not get as many opportunities to air out their throws as shortstops. Another caveat is that Story is so athletic, the Red Sox graded him as a plus defender at short last season even though he had throwing issues.

Story, 29, missed time with elbow trouble in Sept. 2020, and was on the injured list from May 29 to June 10 last season with an elbow problem he said was a flexor strain. He might have fallen into some bad habits. He might still be regaining arm strength.

But here’s the question: If Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts opts out of his contract and departs as a free agent, would the team be comfortable with Story at shortstop, a position that requires a bigger arm than second?

Club officials obviously will not address such a hypothetical unless it is absolutely necessary. For now, their only concern is how Story is performing at second. And they have no complaints.

=======================

https://theathletic.com/3396924/2022/07/02/mlb-trade-deadline-padres-fernando-tatis/
 

Humphrey

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I just had this thought sitting at Wrigley the other day, mentally ticking through the bigger-market teams.

NYY shouldn't be interested. NYM has Lindor. LAD should retain Turner. Houston has Peña. SF has Marco Luciano coming. CWS has Tim Anderson. STL, Toronto, TB, and Washington have young homegrown stars at SS. That leaves, like, Seattle? Philadelphia? Minnesota if Correa opts out? Anaheim? Baltimore? I'm not sure I see Xander leaving Boston for any of those teams unless the gap in offers is pretty huge. Oakland, KC, Cinci, Milwaukee, and Miami are not likely playing in the $25m/annum SS market.

The Cubs seem like one of the few franchises — maybe Philly? — that might not feel like a step down, and they should be spending again with a few of their big commitments nearing their end.
The Cubs had one position player, the catcher, I'd ever heard of. Supposedly he's gone by August 1. Why would the Cubs want a 30 year old who may need to switch positions soon locked in for 7-10 years on their team unless they're going to do a 180 and start spending like crazy?
 

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LogansDad

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The Cubs had one position player, the catcher, I'd ever heard of. Supposedly he's gone by August 1. Why would the Cubs want a 30 year old who may need to switch positions soon locked in for 7-10 years on their team unless they're going to do a 180 and start spending like crazy?
I don't necessarily think the Cubs will be in on Xander, because they may view Nico Hoerner as their SS for the foreseeable future (especially if Nick Madrigal, who they traded for last year, ever relearns to hit enough to play second base).

No offense, though, but I doubt they are basing their future on how many of their players you have heard of, especially since one of them doesn't seem to be one of the highest regarded IFA's since Shohei Ohtani. They are young, but I don't think they are all that far from being a competitive team in a pretty weak division once St Louis' and Milwaukee's age starts catching up with them, but they will have to spend some money if they want to get there in the next 2-3 years.
 

sean1562

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Is Trea Turner better than Xander? Turner's SLG has also decreased steadily over the last three years. Xander has more bWAR than Turner does this season and Turner himself is already 29 years old. What kind of deal would we be willing to give Turner that we wouldnt be willing to give homegrown Xander, who seems to be a clubhouse leader that likes playing in Boston?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Is Trea Turner better than Xander? Turner's SLG has also decreased steadily over the last three years. Xander has more bWAR than Turner does this season and Turner himself is already 29 years old. What kind of deal would we be willing to give Turner that we wouldnt be willing to give homegrown Xander, who seems to be a clubhouse leader that likes playing in Boston?
Objectively, yes, Turner is better than Bogaerts.

.303/.358/.491/.849 123 OPS+, 5.8 bWAR per 162 games
.291/.356/.459/.815 116 OPS+, 4.4 bWAR per 162 games


Whether that's a difference that they'd be willing to pay significantly more for is debatable. I don't think the difference is so big that they'd offer Turner more than they'd offer Bogaerts given Bogaerts history with the team, but I could for sure see equivalent offers to both guys and seeing which one, if either, says yes.
 

E5 Yaz

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I think the premise of "they'll have to replace Xander with someone as good, or better" shouldn't be carved in stone. They might decide to use that money throughout the roster ... a first baseman, a right fielder, bullpen depth ... and fill shortstop with a veteran capable of playing defense and contributing on offense without having to be a main cog.
 

chawson

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I’d be very surprised if we signed Trea Turner. Why would he leave such a good team? Why would the Dodgers let him walk without a competitive bid after giving up so much for him? They’ve got Price, Kimbrel, J. Turner and Kershaw off the books next year and Bellinger the next.

Turner has a -5 outs above average at SS this year, so he may not even be a defensive upgrade on Bogaerts.

Plus, there’s also the matter of Turner’s old racist and homophobic tweets to consider. Yes, he wrote them at age 18 and his public apology was (IMO) a fairly decent one as these things go. But the issue does not set him up well to replace a fan favorite in Bogaerts.
 

Van Everyman

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I don't buy it. A couple innings here and there at SS is not going to throw off Story's transition to 2B. Actually, I'd say Story looks extremely comfortable there and would be fine moving over to SS for a game (or inning) or two with no ill effects. Hell, A-Rod played a few innings at SS during his first couple years with the Yankees and they knew Jeter wasn't going anywhere. I'm not saying that Story can't be the SS in the future. I'm only questioning how "obvious" it is that he's the heir apparent. That was the thinking in March when he signed, but I don't believe it's obvious at all now.

And nowhere was I (or anyone) trying to argue that the Sox see Kike (or Arroyo) as Bogaerts' successor. For one, Kike's gone after this season too. For another, there's a fairly robust market for SS this winter. Tim Anderson , Carlos Correa, and Elvis Andrus also have options that could make them free agents. Didi Gregorius, Dansby Swanson, and Trea Turner are free agents to be. There's a chance that if Bogaerts goes, the Sox could go big for someone better (Correa or Turner), or they could pick up another former all star in the same fashion they got Story (the odd man out in the game of musical chairs).

My preference is they re-sign Bogaerts. It isn't the end of the world if they don't.
My read on them not playing Story at SS has been that they want Xander to know that’s his position if he wants it and not to be looking over his shoulder. They want to have productive contract discussions with him and this is the de facto captain of the team. They don’t need to be rubbing it in his face that they have a very good backup option – esp. in the midst of a year that they want to compete.
 

Yaz4Ever

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Trea Turner is a solid choice if Xander is hellbent on leaving. I don’t know that to be the case, though. Even if Turner were slightly better offensively and defensively and a little bit younger, Xander’s clubhouse leadership and justified fan base love warrant pulling out all the stops in resigning him. Finding a way to lock down both he and Raffy while still having something in the till to upgrade 1B and RF is a challenge I’m glad Bloom has to deal with instead of me.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I don't know how sentimental players are regarding their teammates but I have wondered how Devers would handle it if Xander is traded (doubtful) or not resigned (likely). From what I've read, Devers and he have become pretty good friends. It might be foolish, if my paranoia is close to correct on this, for Devers to refuse to sign if X goes elsewhere since he likely wouldn't end up on the same team anyhow if he eventually leaves too.
-If Xander isn't resigned, the easiest option would of course be to have Story move over for two years and hope that Mayer is ready then. It's a pretty bold idea that an 18 year old will be ready in two years. As much as I worry about that a year away from SS would hurt Story there (arm concerns too), the best option really is to let Xander walk- or offer a one year QO that will hurt his FA with the signing team and just keep trying to do that each year until Mayer is, in fact, ready.
I dunno.... I dunnooo...... tough situation and it really does touch on Devers. I've bounced back and forth between which of them (if it HAS to be just one) would make more sense to stick with for 8-10 years. X is the general better athlete it seems and while his regression is inevitable, I suspect he won't completely implode. I worry that Devers could just collapse after he hits 30- his bat slows down and his athleticism isn't on X's level to compensate.
 

LesterFan

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Xander is a good player but I wouldn't break the bank for him. He's not a good defender and his ISO has dropped for the 4th season in a row. His Statcast numbers suggest he's been a bit lucky this season (.372 wOBA vs .341 xwOBA). The idea of giving him 6+ years with declining power and defense as he goes into his 30s is scary. Devers needs to be the priority. If they sign Devers and can get Xander on a shorter term deal, say 3 or 4 years, then sure. But that seems highly unlikely.
 

Ganthem

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I think the premise of "they'll have to replace Xander with someone as good, or better" shouldn't be carved in stone. They might decide to use that money throughout the roster ... a first baseman, a right fielder, bullpen depth ... and fill shortstop with a veteran capable of playing defense and contributing on offense without having to be a main cog.
I don't think this is pointed out often enough. If a team has to replace a hypothetical five WAR player they don't need to get a five WAR player at the same position. They can incrementally improve several positions and get similar results.
 

chawson

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I don't think this is pointed out often enough. If a team has to replace a hypothetical five WAR player they don't need to get a five WAR player at the same position. They can incrementally improve several positions and get similar results.
Sure, though it's not always cut and dry. Much better to have one 6-win player than two 3-win players. The value of the extra roster spot is fairly significant and will likely be filled by a player worth a win or two on their own, or a prospect of maybe more future value.
 

sean1562

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I think the premise of "they'll have to replace Xander with someone as good, or better" shouldn't be carved in stone. They might decide to use that money throughout the roster ... a first baseman, a right fielder, bullpen depth ... and fill shortstop with a veteran capable of playing defense and contributing on offense without having to be a main cog.
A RF that hits for a ton of power, has success in the AL East, and could transition into the DH spot in 4/5 years maybe?
 

Rice4HOF

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Yes, the one with a .615 career OPS in Fenway.
1. SSS - 123 career ABs. For comparison purposes he's had 97 PA batting 8th/9th and has a .648 OPS. Or .670 with bases loaded in 60 opportunities. I don't think any of the above have any predictive statistical signifcance. You DEFINITELY would not rather face him with the bases loaded than with 2 outs nobody on (.952 OPS), in spite of his career OPS numbers in those situations
2. He has a .238 lifetime BA vs Boston, so how much of it is "he can't hit well in Fenway" vs "the Red Sox pitching staff has handled him well"?
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Sure, though it's not always cut and dry. Much better to have one 6-win player than two 3-win players. The value of the extra roster spot is fairly significant and will likely be filled by a player worth a win or two on their own, or a prospect of maybe more future value.
Thanks for this reminder. I don't know how many "wins" any player is expected to have but yeah.... if you reduce the amount of players by the amount of wins produced by one player you also need to make up for the loss of the other player(s) elsewhere. If X=6 wins and he is replaced by two 3 win players. The other player that is being replaced to make up for the difference from X needs to also be made up elsewhere.
 

chawson

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Yes, the one with a .615 career OPS in Fenway.
…with a .210 BABIP.

Judge’s expected wOBA at Fenway since 2017 is .373. That’s lower than his .420 overall xwOBA over that time, but nothing I’d worry about. He’s got great power to right field, but I don’t see much evidence that he wouldn’t be excellent in Fenway.

It won’t happen, and the months of media speculation suggesting it may will be exhausting. But I can’t say I wouldn’t be into it if it did.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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…with a .210 BABIP.

Judge’s expected wOBA at Fenway since 2017 is .373. That’s lower than his .420 overall xwOBA over that time, but nothing I’d worry about. He’s got great power to right field, but I don’t see much evidence that he wouldn’t be excellent in Fenway.

It won’t happen, and the months of media speculation suggesting it may will be exhausting. But I can’t say I wouldn’t be into it if it did.
Hey if we could pry Bernie Williams away, then… wait, what? Oh.

Judge is going to be looking for a much bigger deal, imo, than the extension that we could get X to sign. And we wouldn’t be getting this year’s numbers from Judge in his mid to late 30s.
 

YTF

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Trea Turner is a solid choice if Xander is hellbent on leaving. I don’t know that to be the case, though. Even if Turner were slightly better offensively and defensively and a little bit younger, Xander’s clubhouse leadership and justified fan base love warrant pulling out all the stops in resigning him. Finding a way to lock down both he and Raffy while still having something in the till to upgrade 1B and RF is a challenge I’m glad Bloom has to deal with instead of me.
FWIW Turner also checks the all important flexibility box with 79 games at 2B (76 started) and 45 games in the OF (44 started) and is still considered a base stealing threat. That said, I don't think he winds up here.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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Devers may get upset if Bogaerts leaves, but he has an agent and money is still money. It's a cutthroat business, and he has to understand that at this point already. The best solution might be for him to become the mentor to another young player (Mayer?) like Bogaerts has been for him.
 

snowmanny

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I don't think this is pointed out often enough. If a team has to replace a hypothetical five WAR player they don't need to get a five WAR player at the same position. They can incrementally improve several positions and get similar results.
I saw that in a movie once.
 

chawson

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Hey if we could pry Bernie Williams away, then… wait, what? Oh.

Judge is going to be looking for a much bigger deal, imo, than the extension that we could get X to sign. And we wouldn’t be getting this year’s numbers from Judge in his mid to late 30s.
I’d argue that Judge may be the kind of hitter with the best chance of retaining productivity in his mid- to late-thirties. The plate discipline and bat speed are elite. The contact rate has dramatically improved the last two years. His above-average right field defense won’t last his whole career, but his body seems less likely to break down.

I agree he almost certainly stays with the Yankees. But I disagree with the Sox saving money for the sake of saving money. Besides Devers, Soto and maybe Correa*, I don’t think there’s another pre-FA position player in MLB that’s worth >$250M. Judge would fill a position of need, and he’d be a fine LF/DH when the time comes.

The Sox should not shy away from mega-deals. We have a fleet of young, cheap players on their way up — more than we can reasonably carry on the 40-man. Either we use the money they save us under the luxury cap to pay superstars, keeping more of our prospects, or we spread that money around on shorter, smaller deals, taking up more 40-man spots and thus losing more of our prospects. (What’s not an option to me is having a $150M payroll.)

If MLB adopts the international draft on July 25, then the penalties for exceeding the luxury cap are far lessened, as I understand it. We’ll know more then. Devers is priority one, but if I had to choose right now between an 8/$190M contract for Bogaerts or say, a 10/$270M one for Judge, I’d choose the latter.
 

Ganthem

a ray of sunshine
SoSH Member
Apr 7, 2022
730
Sure, though it's not always cut and dry. Much better to have one 6-win player than two 3-win players. The value of the extra roster spot is fairly significant and will likely be filled by a player worth a win or two on their own, or a prospect of maybe more future value.
I apologize for being dense here, but lets say there is a team that has a combined 100 war at the end of the season. Of course the team would like to improve, but does it really matter if they get to the hundred WAR with more or less players?
 

scottyno

late Bloomer
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2008
10,149
I apologize for being dense here, but lets say there is a team that has a combined 100 war at the end of the season. Of course the team would like to improve, but does it really matter if they get to the hundred WAR with more or less players?
If you're getting there with fewer players you're probably in better shape in the postseason, because you aren't really going to use your full roster anyway.

If you're trying to improve the team going forward you'd also much prefer the team with a bunch of 5 and 1 WAR guys rather than all 3s, because it's much easier to upgrade the 1 WAR guys.

The downside of course is in the regular season if you have the 5 and 1 guys and you lose some of the 5s to injury then you're pretty screwed.
 

Minneapolis Millers

Member
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Jul 15, 2005
4,146
Twin Cities
… Devers is priority one, but if I had to choose right now between an 8/$190M contract for Bogaerts or say, a 10/$270M one for Judge, I’d choose the latter.
What if it’s more like X for 6/$150, maybe with a player option for year 7 at $20-25M, based on PA (better than Story, but a slight hometown discount) or Judge 8/$240? I don’t think either gets 10 years given their ages.