WS Game 7: A Curse Dies and a Curse Continues

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hbk72777

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Jul 19, 2005
1,940
I wonder what the mathematical odds of the Red Sox, White Sox and Cubs all ending droughts within 12 years period, when their prior titles were won within a decade of each other, a century before
 

scottyno

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Dec 7, 2008
4,896
Were we this annoying? We may have been. White Sox certainly werent. I mean I like Murray its just FOX focusing on the least interesting stuffI guess.
We had actors celebrating on the actual field to be in a movie, not sure if that's better or worse
 

JohntheBaptist

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Jul 13, 2005
11,382
Yoknapatawpha County
We had actors celebrating on the actual field to be in a movie, not sure if that's better or worse
I mean, that wasn't really what it was--it was a movie being shot using the celebration as a backdrop. But yeah that goes in the file. It was more embarrassing, like MLB OK'd it and it made everyone look bad. But yeah I'm sure we were just as annoying. Oh well.
 

Bellhorn

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Aug 22, 2006
2,290
Brighton, MA
I wonder what the mathematical odds of the Red Sox, White Sox and Cubs all ending droughts within 12 years period, when their prior titles were won within a decade of each other, a century before
Here is a very rough answer:

1) For the sake of simplicity, assume that the league has always had 30 teams, and that each team has an equal probability of winning in a given year. Then a given team has approximately a 3.3% chance of failing to win the WS for 100 years.

2) Assume that during the long-ago ten-year period (actually 11), that a different team won the WS every year. Then you have 11-choose-3 = 1320 sets of three teams from which to choose.

3) So the probability of 3 teams winning within a decade, then all undergoing a drought of a century is approximately
1 - ((1 - (3.3% ^ 3)) ^ 1320) = 4.9%.

4) The probability of these three teams then all winning the WS within a given 12-year period is just under 3%.

5) All of the assumptions above (especially the number of teams in the league and the maximal variety of WS winners during the original 11-year period) make this outcome more likely than it is in reality. So a very conservative upper bound on the probability - for a fixed choice of 11-year and 12-year periods separated by a century - is 4.9% * 3% = 0.14%, i.e. 1 in 678. Obviously, it gets more complicated when you consider that there are multiple possible initial 11-year periods, etc.
 

Leskanic's_Thread

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Jul 16, 2005
809
Los Angeles
What an epic, amazing game. I don't share the animosity toward Theo and his departure that it seems a bunch of people here do, nor do I have much bile left for Maddon now that he's out of the division. Fuck Chapman, but at least he was pushed to the edge of extreme goat status.

It's been hard to watch the celebrations, the crowd shots, and even the pre-packaged "Finally!" commercials without getting emotional thinking about when we got to experience all this in 2004. If it can't be the Sox in a given year, I want it to be a team whose fans need that same kind of release and relief that we got then. The fans in the North Side have that tonight. I'm really, really happy for them.

Now ten straight titles for the Red Sox, and then maybe a year off to let an Indians team (with only a goddamn C logo the whole time) breaking their streak.
 

CaptainLaddie

dj paul pfieffer
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Sep 6, 2004
26,880
the district
Guys, I just drove 21 hours with my sister from New Orleans to DC and we were both thinking about pulling over around 8p and thinking about calling it a night -- but that game kept us awake and cheering for the Cubs (gotta go with Lester, Lackey, Rossy, Jed, and Theo over Tito, Nap, and Coco) for five straight hours. What a fucking game. The radio call for the Cubs was very good and I really enjoyed "watching" a game that epic and incredible on the radio. Now that I'm home I've watched a bunch of highlights and, man... just fantastic. And also, the MLB At-Bat app only crapped out on us 2 or 3 times, and only in places with horrible signal. Way better than trying to listen on AM radio the entire way.

My sister knows baseball pretty well, and we watched most of the 2004 ALCS and WS together, including G4 of the WS. It was a pretty amazing bookend to listen to this game with her, both of us clapping and cheering through the Georgia and North Carolina night. I was going to keep driving through the first three innings, then she'd take over, but I kept getting more and more amped as the game went along, and I kept driving (karma, you know). It's funny - we haven't been as close in the last few years but this drive (and this game) got us closer than we have in a long time. When we finally arrived back at my house, we had a long hug and talked about the game a bit again, watching highlights I had tagged on Twitter to watch together.

Christ, what a fucking game, man.
 

axx

lurker
Jul 16, 2005
6,172
BTW, Schwarber ended up hitting .412 in the series (7-17). Managed to generate runs in three of the four games he started. Not bad for a guy who missed most of the season.
 

loshjott

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Dec 30, 2004
7,914
Silver Spring, MD
if Zobrist hits that semi-sharp grounder 6" to the right, it's a DP and who knows. credit to Montero as well to get that deciding insurance run in.

Indians had a golden chance in the bottom 9th, which is all you can ask for after being down 5-1 and 6-3. Top of the lineup against a burnt out Chapman. Kipnis, Lindor and Napoli basically no-showed in this game and that was fatal
With all the talk about the rain delay changing things, the Tribe's inability to do anything against a spent and shaken Chapman in the bottom of the ninth gets lost. That was the turning point.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

posts 18% useful shit
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Nov 17, 2010
10,701
Guys, I just drove 21 hours with my sister from New Orleans to DC and we were both thinking about pulling over around 8p and thinking about calling it a night -- but that game kept us awake and cheering for the Cubs (gotta go with Lester, Lackey, Rossy, Jed, and Theo over Tito, Nap, and Coco) for five straight hours. What a fucking game. The radio call for the Cubs was very good and I really enjoyed "watching" a game that epic and incredible on the radio. Now that I'm home I've watched a bunch of highlights and, man... just fantastic. And also, the MLB At-Bat app only crapped out on us 2 or 3 times, and only in places with horrible signal. Way better than trying to listen on AM radio the entire way.

My sister knows baseball pretty well, and we watched most of the 2004 ALCS and WS together, including G4 of the WS. It was a pretty amazing bookend to listen to this game with her, both of us clapping and cheering through the Georgia and North Carolina night. I was going to keep driving through the first three innings, then she'd take over, but I kept getting more and more amped as the game went along, and I kept driving (karma, you know). It's funny - we haven't been as close in the last few years but this drive (and this game) got us closer than we have in a long time. When we finally arrived back at my house, we had a long hug and talked about the game a bit again, watching highlights I had tagged on Twitter to watch together.

Christ, what a fucking game, man.
Its not too often you get to align a historic game with a great personal event. That makes this a "I'll remember where I was when..." game for you. In 40 years, most of us will assume we were on the coach, bed, in a bar, etc.

I know it's corny, but that's great for you, man.
 

Average Reds

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Sep 24, 2007
25,152
Southwestern CT
Guys, I just drove 21 hours with my sister from New Orleans to DC and we were both thinking about pulling over around 8p and thinking about calling it a night -- but that game kept us awake and cheering for the Cubs (gotta go with Lester, Lackey, Rossy, Jed, and Theo over Tito, Nap, and Coco) for five straight hours. What a fucking game. The radio call for the Cubs was very good and I really enjoyed "watching" a game that epic and incredible on the radio. Now that I'm home I've watched a bunch of highlights and, man... just fantastic. And also, the MLB At-Bat app only crapped out on us 2 or 3 times, and only in places with horrible signal. Way better than trying to listen on AM radio the entire way.

My sister knows baseball pretty well, and we watched most of the 2004 ALCS and WS together, including G4 of the WS. It was a pretty amazing bookend to listen to this game with her, both of us clapping and cheering through the Georgia and North Carolina night. I was going to keep driving through the first three innings, then she'd take over, but I kept getting more and more amped as the game went along, and I kept driving (karma, you know). It's funny - we haven't been as close in the last few years but this drive (and this game) got us closer than we have in a long time. When we finally arrived back at my house, we had a long hug and talked about the game a bit again, watching highlights I had tagged on Twitter to watch together.

Christ, what a fucking game, man.
That's a great story. (Seriously)

Less seriously, let us know when the Folgers coffee commercial is coming out.
 

JimD

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Nov 29, 2001
6,621
This series really made me appreciate the miracle that was 2004. Not just the ALCS comeback but the perfect confluence of performances that allowed the Sox to sweep the Cardinals. Had St. Louis come back and won game 3 or 4 and pushed that series to five games or more, I truly believe the Sox would have run out of arms. Schilling was likely done as an effective starter and we'd be looking at Wake or Pedro (probably on short rest). Who knows if the Lowe high-wire act would have finally failed or if Foulke had any bullets left?

Tito ran out of time last night, especially with Kluber and Miller. The Tribe needed to close this out in five or eventually the superior talent on the Cubs would assert itself, and sure enough it did.
 

Flunky

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Jan 3, 2009
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CT
Tigers fans breathe a collective sigh of relief. All those years of "not quite" from dominance in the Central just to see the Indians do it in a rando one off year. Didn't happen...

St. Louis and White Sox fans, quietly vomiting in a corner...
 

canderson

Fomenting voting confusion and angst since 2016
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Jul 16, 2005
23,320
Harrisburg, Pa.
Cubs fans have lost their current identity. For Boston, it was an elusive title they had sniffed but weren't tied up in being losers. Chicago's is.
 

Blundatola

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Jun 9, 2008
451
Chicago
The best thing about this is that the Cubs become just another championship team. Their immense talent will either go on a winning spree, and people will tire of them, or they'll not live up to expectations and become like the Atlanta Braves ... all those division banners and one title
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!

Cubs fans have lost their current identity. For Boston, it was an elusive title they had sniffed but weren't tied up in being losers. Chicago's is.
Oh no! How will we ever cope?
 

Arroyo Con Frijoles

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Jul 19, 2005
641
Cubs fans have lost their current identity. For Boston, it was an elusive title they had sniffed but weren't tied up in being losers. Chicago's is.
Given all the times I laughed at people saying this exact thing about the Red Sox after 2004 (your attempt at distinguishing between the teams notwithstanding), I guess I have to laugh at this too.

Regardless, even if you're right, and whatever it means to lose your "identity," I'm sure Cubs fans will take the trade.
 

Flunky

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Steve Bartman should tell anyone and everyone to fuck off.

All the "you can sleep now, Steve" twitter bullshit is just as bad as the racist stuff classy Cardinals fans hurled at Kolten Wong in 2013.