Would you trade Jaylen+ for Durant?

Cellar-Door · Aug 2, 2022

lars10 said:
Jaylen averaged 23/5.3/4.3 in five less minutes of game time. He also had more blocks and steals. I realize the defenses aren’t the same obviously.. but Jaylen shot 20 less free throws.. had 10 less FG attempts.. had 10 less TOS..
and he’s 8 years younger.

My main question to those thinking about this trade.. how many productive years does KD have?

and the second major thing.. it’s not KD and Jaylen straight up… why would it be good to get rid of three decent players for one KD who will play about 45 games?

I mean, comparing stat lines for the 2nd option on a team playing against a bad defense with the #1 option playing the best defense in the league is silly. (even sillier is trying to argue that not getting FTs is some positive, getting to the line mostly means you forced the defender to foul you).

Kevin Durant is a much better player than Jaylen Brown right now, and if we could do a straight up swap Brad would have done it weeks ago.

We can definitely argue about how much else you want to give up, and what timelines are, but let's not try and make up some scenario where Durant isn't the superior player now.

lars10 · Aug 2, 2022

Cellar-Door said:
I mean, comparing stat lines for the 2nd option on a team playing against a bad defense with the #1 option playing the best defense in the league is silly. (even sillier is trying to argue that not getting FTs is some positive, getting to the line mostly means you forced the defender to foul you).

Kevin Durant is a much better player than Jaylen Brown right now, and if we could do a straight up swap Brad would have done it weeks ago.

We can definitely argue about how much else you want to give up, and what timelines are, but let's not try and make up some scenario where Durant isn't the superior player now.

Well a few things:
- their stat lines are very similar.. and I acknowledged the C’s D is better. Jaylen also put up those numbers playing 5 minutes less a game. The only reason I brought up those stats is because people were saying Durant was a superstar in the series. But I get your point.

- My point regarding FTs was more about Durant getting a lot more points from the line.. where Jaylen was getting them from the field.. we can argue whether or not JB should be getting more FTs.. since the NBA is a superstar league KD gets more respect.. I know there have been hundreds of posts regarding angles/creating contact etc.

- I acknowledge that Durant is a better player right now.. but why much better? I think Boston fans undervalue Jaylen a lot.. especially if this thread is any indication. Do you have stats you can show me regarding their respective defensive ability (because I feel like that gets ignored a lot in favor of offensive stats)? I’m def down for being educated on this.

I personally wouldn’t swap a player just about to enter their prime for one well past their prime years (even though he’s still very good)… and that’s straight up.

I also think having a player who has done well in this market is something to hold on to. Im not convinced KD would fare as well in Boston in relation to that.. JB’s personality seems to cope with it quite well. I’m also kind of down to watch them run it back with their new additions.

radsoxfan · Aug 3, 2022

Just as another small data point, DARKO has KD ranked #8 overall and JB ranked #15 overall. I know the all-in-one stats don't exactly agree.

I've generally felt that:

-- KD gives the Celtics the best chance to win in 2022-2023, though it's not a huge advantage over JB

-- 4 years of KD > 2 years of JB (only a major factor if there is something behind the scenes we don't know about Jaylen wanting to leave)

-- I would not give up anything significant with JB regardless (I don't consider White or 1-2 picks "significant", but I would consider Smart or Rob significant)

-- I am perfectly content if Brad keeps the team as constructed and gives the Nets the finger

sezwho · Aug 9, 2022

I have gone from "moving too fast" to No. It sounds crazy on the face of it, but I don't think Durant over Brown (combined O & D) makes us enough better next year to take on all the corresponding risk. The Celtics weren't his free agency destination, weren't even on his list of trade targets this season. He now hates the team/ownership he just assembled. If we were to trade, I think he is gooooooone next season, ring or not.

Mooch · Aug 10, 2022

I’m truly shocked at people who are waffling on this deal from the Celtics side purely from a basketball standpoint. Durant is a significantly better player than Brown by pretty much any metric and if he’s healthy, represents an upgrade in the on-court talent that Boston can put out there in the playoffs.

I understand the hesitation based on Durant’s mercurial personality but I’m of the belief that if you get him in the right situation (like say, the one he had with the Warriors), Durant is an unparalleled asset that can win multiple titles and is the best player on the court almost any game that he’s out there.

Jaylen Brown, while an excellent player, is not the kind of guy who can swing a playoff series on his own. He’s a strong complimentary piece and may never be any more than that. He has some flaws in his game that he has yet to overcome and I’m a bit nervous that his turnover prone style and shaky ball handling may not be fixable to make another leap.

If we’re truly being honest with ourselves about this Celtics team, we would see a group that played .500 ball in the playoffs over their last 20 games. I think they need to upgrade more than two bench spots to get over the hump next season to win a Championship, when we might not be so fortunate in drawing teams missing key players, like we did against the Bucks.

Durant is the kind of player that can get you there and you absolutely acquire him when you’re this close to a ring.

Reverend · Aug 10, 2022

Mooch said:
I think they need to upgrade more than two bench spots to get over the hump next season to win a Championship, when we might not be so fortunate in drawing teams missing key players, like we did against the Bucks.

I think a significant part of the concern is not wanting to see the Celtics team that another team is lucky to see while it is missing a key player…

Personally, I’m of five or six minds on the issue, but I have no idea how to drop a probability on that, which is technically how one would want to evaluate it.

PedroKsBambino · Aug 10, 2022

Mooch said:
I’m truly shocked at people who are waffling on this deal from the Celtics side purely from a basketball standpoint. Durant is a significantly better player than Brown by pretty much any metric and if he’s healthy, represents an upgrade in the on-court talent that Boston can put out there in the playoffs.

I understand the hesitation based on Durant’s mercurial personality but I’m of the belief that if you get him in the right situation (like say, the one he had with the Warriors), Durant is an unparalleled asset that can win multiple titles and is the best player on the court almost any game that he’s out there.

Jaylen Brown, while an excellent player, is not the kind of guy who can swing a playoff series on his own. He’s a strong complimentary piece and may never be any more than that. He has some flaws in his game that he has yet to overcome and I’m a bit nervous that his turnover prone style and shaky ball handling may not be fixable to make another leap.

If we’re truly being honest with ourselves about this Celtics team, we would see a group that played .500 ball in the playoffs over their last 20 games. I think they need to upgrade more than two bench spots to get over the hump next season to win a Championship, when we might not be so fortunate in drawing teams missing key players, like we did against the Bucks.

Durant is the kind of player that can get you there and you absolutely acquire him when you’re this close to a ring.

I hear all that, and it's fair. For me, the big reason I sit on the other side of it is how I value chemistry between your top players---I think that is an absoulutely critical and tough to achieve thing in the NBA, and we have it with the Jays. We might have it with Durant/Tatum as well but it's an unknown and for me, that is too high a risk to take given where the team is right now. Tatum grew into the alpha last year---he won't be that with Durant and we don't know how that plays. We also can reasonably question Durant's ability to fit in at this point; he walked away from a spectacular situation in GS, and failed with the Nets (which is a complicated situation, of course). I love him and respect his game but I do not think it's a certainty that the fit is as good as what we have now even though Durant the player is without question superior to brown the player. I'm usually a "best talent wins" guy in the NBA, and that makes this close for me but I still don't quite see it

As to last year, one can equally say that they were in their first real playoff run with this group and coach, and they were the best team in the playoffs when healthy. Tatum, TL, Smart all materially degraded by Miami series and that is a huge factor, plus the lack of depth. So personally, I'd rather bet on the Jays and filling in around the edges...and I also understand why you and others want the Durant upgrade.

JM3 · Aug 10, 2022

Last year everyone was insisting that we needed to trade Jaylen because of the basketball fit with Tatum. Whereas Durant has proven that he can play great alongside ball dominant stars ranging from RW to Steph to Kyrie.

The basketball fit is easy. The team chemistry/roster construction (lack of wings, KD is a 4 now)/health/potential for blow up/increased window if Jaylen wants to be here long term are the complicating matters.

But Durant will absolutely fit on the court & it would be a joy to watch. & I'd do it if the price was right - hopefully with a corresponding trade for a wing or getting Royce or something from the Nets in the deal.

benhogan · Aug 10, 2022

JM3 said:
Last year everyone was insisting that we needed to trade Jaylen because of the basketball fit with Tatum. Whereas Durant has proven that he can play great alongside ball dominant stars ranging from RW to Steph to Kyrie.

The basketball fit is easy. The team chemistry/roster construction (lack of wings, KD is a 4 now)/health/potential for blow up/increased window if Jaylen wants to be here long term are the complicating matters.

But Durant will absolutely fit on the court & it would be a joy to watch. & I'd do it if the price was right - hopefully with a corresponding trade for a wing or getting Royce or something from the Nets in the deal.

everyone? I hate this false narrative, being driven by the NBA National media. It's so damn false

more like a couple of folks in the media (Jeff Goodman) and WEEI call-in morons. If you canvass the Port Cellar pages back then I'd say the vast majority of this board, 80-90%, was full steam ahead with JayCrew even when they were struggling at .500.

Kliq · Aug 10, 2022

I can only speak for myself, but if we trade Brown for Durant, I feel like it would be a devastating blow to my interest in this team and the NBA in general. It just isn't a product I feel like investing myself emotionally in moving forward.

JM3 · Aug 10, 2022

benhogan said:
everyone? more like a couple of folks in the media and radio call-in morons. If you canvass the Port Cellar pages back then I'd say the vast majority of this board, 80-90%, was full steam ahead with JayCrew even when they were struggling at .500.

It was a figurative everyone & it was always a dumb take - you can never have too many good wings. But what unlocked them working better together was partially improved dustribution from Smart & partially improved playmaking from Tatum & Brown. KD is both a better playmaker than Brown & a better spot up shooter.

PedroKsBambino · Aug 10, 2022

JM3 said:
It was a figurative everyone & it was always a dumb take - you can never have too many good wings. But what unlocked them working better together was partially improved dustribution from Smart & partially improved playmaking from Tatum & Brown. KD is both a better playmaker than Brown & a better spot up shooter.

Yeah, and so the question is now that they've taken a team to the Finals....why would we want to re-start the chemistry integration with someone who is quite different?

You assume the on-court fit and I think the reality in the NBA is that should never be assumed. That's because these guys don't play a theoretical game, they play a human game where expectations, egos, preferences matter and those very specific reasons are why KD left GS and part of why the Nets didn't work. So I get the Zach Lowe talking point that Lowe is the most malleable superstar ever and the inarguable reality is he's now had back to back situations that didn't fit with his desires (you could argue three counting OKC, but I do think that's a bit different). So you need to really wrestle with that fact before we assume it won't happen a third (fourth?) time.

Again, said with great love for KD's game. I'm not saying it can't work---it most certainly COULD...I'm saying we need to think very hard (and I'm sure the Celtics are) about whether the probability of it working is worth the risk. it is simply not a no-brainer that they fit and integrate well.

That's the choice---it isn't "who is better" as that is clearly KD. It is "will KD's better play make up for the chemistry risk, cost to acquire, and age/injury risk". I respect answering "yes" to that, but I personally am not sure.

JM3 · Aug 10, 2022

PedroKsBambino said:
Yeah, and so the question is now that they've taken a team to the Finals....why would we want to re-start the chemistry integration with someone who is quite different?

You assume the on-court fit and I think the reality in the NBA is that should never be assumed. That's because these guys don't play a theoretical game, they play a human game where expectations, egos, preferences matter and those very specific reasons are why KD left GS and part of why the Nets didn't work. So I get the Zach Lowe talking point that Lowe is the most malleable superstar ever and the inarguable reality is he's now had back to back situations that didn't fit with his desires. So you need to really wrestle with that fact before we assume it won't happen a third time.

Again, said with great love for KD's game

That has nothing to do with on-court fit. On court, KD has been great in all those situations. Unless he & Tatum legit hate eachother, which they appear not to, they would be a very, very complimentary tandem.

Are there examples of players who should be great fits on the court not actually working together?

Honestly if Jaylen said privately & convincingly that he was all-in on staying forever, I'd probably not do the trade - but passing on this shot & then watching Jaylen walk would be the worst of all timelines.

Even if the 2nd worst case* happens & KD gets angry & wants to leave, you will still be able to recoup similar assets in a couple years when KD is still under contract for 2 more years.

*worst case obviously career ending injury

benhogan · Aug 10, 2022

JM3 said:
It was a figurative everyone & it was always a dumb take - you can never have too many good wings. But what unlocked them working better together was partially improved dustribution from Smart & partially improved playmaking from Tatum & Brown. KD is both a better playmaker than Brown & a better spot up shooter.

Just note, I'm PO'd with the National media, not YOU with my response. They portray the Celtic fan in the worst way. When I say 80-90% its more like 100%. There wasn't a poster here that was pressing hard for a Jaylen Brown trade. None. Nobody.

Also note; KD is a better distributor, draws more attention and is a better defender. He'll probably age well and is on a 4yr deal. He's awesome and there is a price that you trigger this deal BUT the Nets want to rinse every last asset from the counterparty. When a player demands a trade, you don't get a premium for him, he comes at a discount.

Jimbodandy · Aug 10, 2022

Mooch said:
I’m truly shocked at people who are waffling on this deal from the Celtics side purely from a basketball standpoint. Durant is a significantly better player than Brown by pretty much any metric and if he’s healthy, represents an upgrade in the on-court talent that Boston can put out there in the playoffs.

I understand the hesitation based on Durant’s mercurial personality but I’m of the belief that if you get him in the right situation (like say, the one he had with the Warriors), Durant is an unparalleled asset that can win multiple titles and is the best player on the court almost any game that he’s out there.

Jaylen Brown, while an excellent player, is not the kind of guy who can swing a playoff series on his own. He’s a strong complimentary piece and may never be any more than that. He has some flaws in his game that he has yet to overcome and I’m a bit nervous that his turnover prone style and shaky ball handling may not be fixable to make another leap.

If we’re truly being honest with ourselves about this Celtics team, we would see a group that played .500 ball in the playoffs over their last 20 games. I think they need to upgrade more than two bench spots to get over the hump next season to win a Championship, when we might not be so fortunate in drawing teams missing key players, like we did against the Bucks.

Durant is the kind of player that can get you there and you absolutely acquire him when you’re this close to a ring.

Jaylen Brown turnover% - Career 11.4%, last year 11.6%
Jayson Tatum turnover% - Career 10.9%, last year 10.4%
Kevin Durant turnover% - Career 12.5%, last year 12.9%

PedroKsBambino · Aug 10, 2022

JM3 said:
That has nothing to do with on-court fit. On court, KD has been great in all those situations. Unless he & Tatum legit hate eachother, which they appear not to, they would be a very, very complimentary tandem.

Are there examples of players who should be great fits on the court not actually working together?

Honestly if Jaylen said privately & convincingly that he was all-in on staying forever, I'd probably not do the trade - but passing on this shot & then watching Jaylen walk would be the worst of all timelines.

Even if the 2nd worst case* happens & KD gets angry & wants to leave, you will still be able to recoup similar assets in a couple years when KD is still under contract for 2 more years.

*worst case obviously career ending injury

Kyrie, Harden, and KD were all supposed to be great fits on the court, most obviously. And that illustrates my point: it is not about theoretical basketball fit it is also about role, image, and ego. That's the risk here, and that is very much an on-court risk we'd face with this trade. Who gets the ball late? Who starts the offense? Who has to take the tougher defensive matchup? All that really matters in making the TEAM effective and while it certainly might work, it's an unknown and a change for both KD and Tatum. We simply have to recognize that reality and risk-adjust for it.

JM3 · Aug 10, 2022

benhogan said:
Just note, I'm PO'd with the National media, not YOU with my response. They portray the Celtic fan in the worst way. When I say 80-90% its more like 100%. There wasn't a poster here that was pressing hard for a Jaylen Brown trade. None. Nobody.

Also note; KD is a better distributor, draws more attention and is a better defender. He'll also will probably age well and is on a 4yr deal. He's awesome and there is a price that you trigger this deal BUT the Nets want to rinse every last asset from the counterparty. When a player demands a trade, you don't get a premium for him, he comes at a discount.

Agree. My willingness to get involved & offer more is almost entirely related to the internal estimations of the likelihood Jaylen walks in 2 years.

If I think he's all in? My best offer is probably like Jaylen + Grant + filler + protected 1st.

I'd also do like Jaylen + Horford for KD/Royce/Claxton or something.

If I know Jaylen is walking? I'd do Jaylen/White/Grant all the picks.

With my current level of uncertainty my best offer is probably Jaylen/White/Grant 1 1st.

Kliq · Aug 10, 2022

BigSoxFan said:
Care to expand? I get the fun of rooting for “your guys” but I watch the NBA to be entertained and seeing an all time great with our potential young all time great would be extremely entertaining for me. Additionally, the Celtics would dominate all of the discussion from the media, all of the attention from the fans, would make those GS rematch games even juicier, etc.

They certainly wouldn’t be boring so curious why it would turn you off? I get that KD is a tool and if he turned into another Kyrie, that would suck. But it wouldn’t turn me off of rooting for the Celtics or watching the league.

To briefly summarize; I'd rather have a team I enjoy rooting for be competitive than have a team I don't like be more likely to win a championship. I find Durant completely unlikeable and would have a real hard time rooting for him and this team, even if he was wearing a Celtics jersey. It would be a tough pill to swallow after watching Jaylen grow and mature into the player he has become today, nearly winning a title, only to punt him off into the NBA hinterlands to chase the latest shiny object (an aging superstar).

In the broader sense, I find the constant discourse and speculation (and ultimately execution) of player movement in the NBA completely exhausting to follow and keep up with, and it seems to only be trending in a more dramatic as players leap around from team to team every year and nothing feels stable or guaranteed. It's reached such a saturation point that none of it really interests me, and it makes the accomplishments of teams each year feel insignificant and not worthy of my emotional investment. The Celtics came within two games of winning the title last year, that should mean something significant? Actually no it doesn't--we are still going to shake up our entire team and chase Kevin Durant because this is the NBA world we live in.

People seem okay with that and I just feel distant and removed from that kind of investment and find myself rapidly losing interest in the NBA despite maintaining a deep love of the game itself and an appreciation of the skill and athleticism of it's individual players.

PedroKsBambino · Aug 10, 2022

I also agree that the reason you explore this is because Jaylen could walk. They have a far better sense than we do of the risk there, and if they make a KD deal I will believe that is the number one or co-number one reason they did so (as much or more than KD being an awesome player). I believe they know the risks---of integrating KD at his age, and of Jaylen walking.

I do not personally have enough fear of Jaylen walking to do the deal, but recognize they may.

JM3 · Aug 10, 2022

PedroKsBambino said:
Kyrie, Harden, and KD were all supposed to be great fits on the court, most obviously. And that illustrates my point: it is not about theoretical basketball fit it is also about role, image, and ego. That's the risk here, and that is very much an on-court risk we'd face with this trade

& they almost made a conference finals without being healthy at all & ever playing with more than 2 of them?

They were all disaster humans (I would argue KD the least disastrous), but on court they were still all fine.

PedroKsBambino · Aug 10, 2022

JM3 said:
& they almost made a conference finals without being healthy at all & ever playing with more than 2 of them?

They were all disaster humans (I would argue KD the least disastrous), but on court they were still all fine.

Step back though: your argument now is that three superstars combined to lose earlier in the playoffs than the Jays, and managed to blow themselves apart in one year, so we should believe KD will fit with Tatum? That's crazy. The Nets case is precisely why we should be hesitatant here.

It is just hard to get guys to gel in the NBA. That's especially true without a Lebron to force things together.

benhogan · Aug 10, 2022

JM3 said:
Agree. My willingness to get involved & offer more is almost entirely related to the internal estimations of the likelihood Jaylen walks in 2 years.

If I think he's all in? My best offer is probably like Jaylen + Grant + filler + protected 1st.

I'd also do like Jaylen + Horford for KD/Royce/Claxton or something.

If I know Jaylen is walking? I'd do Jaylen/White/Grant all the picks.

With my current level of uncertainty my best offer is probably Jaylen/White/Grant 1 1st.

Yea a lot of people are pretty confident that KD's 4yr contract is a more stable asset than Brown's 2yr with Bird rights. I've seen enough mercurial NBA superstars not honor their "promises" or contracts. So that's a coin flip IMO. My crystal ball isn't clear on how Brown's contract situation will work out. While Brad has a shit ton of more info, 2yrs is an eternity in the NBA.

If Brown is a Top20 player now, where will he be by season's end? or next season? He's ascending, a lot of the superstars ahead of him are in decline.

Brad is very adept at getting a lot out of late firsts, so they shouldn't be in a rush to move them.

There is a "price" for everything, but the Net ask rumors are insane for KD. He and Kyrie just fire-bombed the organization. Let it burn down and pick through the remnants when KD/Ky show up in street clothes every other game.

JM3 · Aug 10, 2022

PedroKsBambino said:
Step back though: your argument now is that three superstars combined to lose earlier in the playoffs than the Jays, and managed to blow themselves apart in one year, so we should believe KD will fit with Tatum? That's crazy. The Nets case is precisely why we should be hesitatant here.

It is just hard to get guys to gel in the NBA. That's especially true without a Lebron to force things together.

No... that's not my argument at all? If Tatum gets injured, we aren't winning the title. That's the comparison to the Nets run that year.

KD put up an efficient 34/9/4 while Harden & Kyrie missed 3 games each with injury & weren't healthy at all. Their bigs were Blake Griffin & Jeff Green. Landry Shamet played real minutes.

My argument is that KD is a professional basketball player who thrives on the court no matter what else is going on.

Jimbodandy · Aug 10, 2022

benhogan said:
Yea a lot of people are pretty confident that KD's 4yr contract is a more stable asset than Brown's 2yr with Bird rights. I've seen enough mercurial NBA superstars not honor their "promises" or contracts. So that's a coin flip IMO. My crystal ball isn't clear on how Brown's contract situation will work out. While Brad has a shit ton of more info, 2yrs is an eternity in the NBA.

If Brown is a Top20 player now, where will he be by season's end? or next season? He's ascending, a lot of the superstars ahead of him are in decline.

Brad is very adept at getting a lot out of late firsts, so they shouldn't be in a rush to move them.

There is a "price" for everything, but the Net ask rumors are insane for KD. He and Kyrie just fire-bombed the organization. Let it burn down and pick through the remnants when KD/Ky show up in street clothes every other game.

The bolded is why you can't trade "all of the picks" plus top players.

Yes, I know about the Stepien rule. All of the picks you can trade.

In the last couple of years, Durant chose to team up with Kyrie, signed a long-term extension, immediately demanded a trade, and then publicly demanded that the GM and Coach get whacked. Half of this happened in the last few weeks. If my girlfriend behaved like that, I'd start sleeping with one eye open.

JM3 · Aug 10, 2022

The Nets were also 36-19 last year in regular season games KD played. Despite Kyrie & Harden doing their things.

Saints Rest · Aug 10, 2022

The part I keep wondering about is how Durant (instead of Brown + White, and possibly + Grant) fits with the rest of the remaining roster.

Theoretical remaning roster:

BIGs: Time Lord, Kornet
Big/Wings: KD, Al, Gallo, Grant maybe
WINGs: JT
Wing/PGs: Marcus, Brogdon
PGs: PP

Compared to current roster:

BIGs: Time Lord, Kornet
Big/Wings: Al, Gallo, Grant
WINGs: JT, JB
Wing/PGs: Marcus, Brogdon, White
PGs: PP

My concern is that even with Grant left behind, we become a bit too big with little depth for guys who can cover the smaller/quicker wings.

RSN Diaspora · Aug 10, 2022

PedroKsBambino said:
I do not personally have enough fear of Jaylen walking to do the deal, but recognize they may.

I'm of the opposite mindset--I don't see how or why Jaylen would stay at the end of his contract. NBA rules prevent the Celtics from extending his deal into a max-out, and barring injury, he'll get a max contract from someone. If I thought he could be kept long-term, I'd have a very different outlook on this trade proposition, but if we assume only two more years of Jaylen (and I do), then I think you have to seriously entertain the idea of a trade of this magnitude. All that said, I suspect the asking price is going to be unpalatable, so this likely winds up as an academic exercise.

JM3 · Aug 10, 2022

RSN Diaspora said:
I'm of the opposite mindset--I don't see how or why Jaylen would stay at the end of his contract. NBA rules prevent the Celtics from extending his deal into a max-out, and barring injury, he'll get a max contract from someone. If I thought he could be kept long-term, I'd have a very different outlook on this trade proposition, but if we assume only two more years of Jaylen (and I do), then I think you have to seriously entertain the idea of a trade of this magnitude. All that said, I suspect the asking price is going to be unpalatable, so this likely winds up as an academic exercise.

They can't extend him early for the max, but they can still offer him the most $ after it expires.

benhogan · Aug 10, 2022

RSN Diaspora said:
I'm of the opposite mindset--I don't see how or why Jaylen would stay at the end of his contract. NBA rules prevent the Celtics from extending his deal into a max-out, and barring injury, he'll get a max contract from someone. If I thought he could be kept long-term, I'd have a very different outlook on this trade proposition, but if we assume only two more years of Jaylen (and I do), then I think you have to seriously entertain the idea of a trade of this magnitude. All that said, I suspect the asking price is going to be unpalatable, so this likely winds up as an academic exercise.

The C's can offer more in 2yrs or match any deal & do a S&T (if he wants to go elsewhere)

Assuming he's gone for nothing in 2yrs is way too pessimistic.

John Marzano Olympic Hero · Aug 10, 2022

Mooch said:
I’m truly shocked at people who are waffling on this deal from the Celtics side purely from a basketball standpoint. Durant is a significantly better player than Brown by pretty much any metric and if he’s healthy, represents an upgrade in the on-court talent that Boston can put out there in the playoffs.

I understand the hesitation based on Durant’s mercurial personality but I’m of the belief that if you get him in the right situation (like say, the one he had with the Warriors), Durant is an unparalleled asset that can win multiple titles and is the best player on the court almost any game that he’s out there.

Jaylen Brown, while an excellent player, is not the kind of guy who can swing a playoff series on his own. He’s a strong complimentary piece and may never be any more than that. He has some flaws in his game that he has yet to overcome and I’m a bit nervous that his turnover prone style and shaky ball handling may not be fixable to make another leap.

If we’re truly being honest with ourselves about this Celtics team, we would see a group that played .500 ball in the playoffs over their last 20 games. I think they need to upgrade more than two bench spots to get over the hump next season to win a Championship, when we might not be so fortunate in drawing teams missing key players, like we did against the Bucks.

Durant is the kind of player that can get you there and you absolutely acquire him when you’re this close to a ring.

I understand what you're saying, and I definitely get it, but (and this is just a casual fan's perspective here) I like Jaylen Brown and I'm not sure that I like Kevin Durant. I know that Durant is better than Brown, but I also think that he brings a lot of baggage to the team. And I complete get that this isn't the main reason why you don't make a trade, but the media here will poke and prod Durant either get him to say something stupid or just make his life miserable. The next thing you know he wants to be traded and you're kinda stuck. The other thing is, he could demand a trade six months from now. I don't get Kevin Durant and what makes him happy and I'm not quite sure that anyone does. That's what makes him so maddening.

Honestly, if I was Kevin Durant and I knew that my (realistic) choices were Miami, Boston, Toronto or New Orleans; I'd be pretty bummed that I was sent to anywhere but Miami. Especially in January and February in Boston and Toronto. Does that realization that he's not in Miami make him sulk and he plays shitty? IDK. Maybe? The other thing is he's 34 and has been hurt. A lot.

This calculus slightly changes if Brown is gone in two years. Then, I'd think about it a little more. But if all things are equal and Brown wants to stick around, I keep him. This was a fun team last year and I think it got a bit better over the summer. I know that fun teams can crash and burn after a year (see the 2018 --> 2019 Red Sox), but they can also get better (see the 2003 --> 2004 Red Sox), so I'd roll the dice.

RSN Diaspora · Aug 10, 2022

JM3 said:
They can't extend him early for the max, but they can still offer him the most $ after it expires.

benhogan said:
The C's can offer more in 2yrs or match any deal & do a S&T (if he wants to go elsewhere)

Assuming he's gone for nothing in 2yrs is way too pessimistic.

Sure, but so could anyone else. At that point he's a free agent, and it's at least as likely that he walks for nothing. Right now, he's eligible for a three-year extension that would pay him roughly $111 million in base salary, plus about $12 million more in incentives. Obviously, those numbers are nothing to sneeze at, but hedging against either injury or a decline in value are really the only reasons he'd extend. Once he's on the open market, there's no reason to believe he's any more likely to stay with us than go elsewhere.

Mooch · Aug 10, 2022

John Marzano Olympic Hero said:
I understand what you're saying, and I definitely get it, but (and this is just a casual fan's perspective here) I like Jaylen Brown and I'm not sure that I like Kevin Durant. I know that Durant is better than Brown, but I also think that he brings a lot of baggage to the team. And I complete get that this isn't the main reason why you don't make a trade, but the media here will poke and prod Durant either get him to say something stupid or just make his life miserable. The next thing you know he wants to be traded and you're kinda stuck. The other thing is, he could demand a trade six months from now. I don't get Kevin Durant and what makes him happy and I'm not quite sure that anyone does. That's what makes him so maddening.

Honestly, if I was Kevin Durant and I knew that my (realistic) choices were Miami, Boston, Toronto or New Orleans; I'd be pretty bummed that I was sent to anywhere but Miami. Especially in January and February in Boston and Toronto. Does that realization that he's not in Miami make him sulk and he plays shitty? IDK. Maybe? The other thing is he's 34 and has been hurt. A lot.

This calculus slightly changes if Brown is gone in two years. Then, I'd think about it a little more. But if all things are equal and Brown wants to stick around, I keep him. This was a fun team last year and I think it got a bit better over the summer. I know that fun teams can crash and burn after a year (see the 2018 --> 2019 Red Sox), but they can also get better (see the 2003 --> 2004 Red Sox), so I'd roll the dice.

All fair, and I appreciate this viewpoint.

What I'd say in response is simply this: Durant, as a pure basketball player, is one of the most fun players to watch in my lifetime. In terms of pure scoring ability, he's the best non-Jordan player since the merger and he hits shots on a night-in/night-out basis that make you wonder "how does ANYONE do that?" And that's not counting the rebounding, passing, shotblocking, etc.... Durant is an electric player who, if paired with Tatum, will be a BLAST to watch in green every night. There's nothing about his game to hate. The dude is a one of one.

John Marzano Olympic Hero · Aug 10, 2022

Mooch said:
All fair, and I appreciate this viewpoint.

What I'd say in response is simply this: Durant, as a pure basketball player, is one of the most fun players to watch in my lifetime. In terms of pure scoring ability, he's the best non-Jordan player since the merger and he hits shots on a night-in/night-out basis that make you wonder "how does ANYONE do that?" And that's not counting the rebounding, passing, shotblocking, etc.... Durant is an electric player who, if paired with Tatum, will be a BLAST to watch in green every night. There's nothing about his game to hate. The dude is a one of one.

I completely and totally understand this viewpoint and 99/100, I'm with you in the "get the best player that you can" camp, but this is that one time when I'm like, "I'm not so sure". Maybe if the C's get him, everything will be great and they'll win a championship or two, Tatum and Durant are the new Pippen and Jordan and I'll look back at this post and wonder what my problem was. But KD is no slam dunk (pun intended) for me. If they made the deal, I'd be all in but I hope that they don't.

LoLsapien · Aug 10, 2022

Jimbodandy said:
View attachment 54093

Jaylen Brown turnover% - Career 11.4%, last year 11.6%
Jayson Tatum turnover% - Career 10.9%, last year 10.4%
Kevin Durant turnover% - Career 12.5%, last year 12.9%

Hey guys, I'm a little surprised no one responded to Jim's post here, but according to DARKO, doesn't it look like Jaylen could approximate Durant's value really soon? Like, potentially next year? I say this as a guy who is brand new to being anything more than a casual NBA fan. But it seems like folks here have a lot of respect for DARKO and this chart is eye-popping to me. Jaylen's ascension - according to this chart- does not indicate that his skills are plateauing. And Durant's skills, by age or injury, could begin to erode at any time, I'd think.

RorschachsMask · Aug 10, 2022

I’d be in favor, but I understand why people are against it.

djbayko · Aug 10, 2022

Kliq said:
To briefly summarize; I'd rather have a team I enjoy rooting for be competitive than have a team I don't like be more likely to win a championship. I find Durant completely unlikeable and would have a real hard time rooting for him and this team, even if he was wearing a Celtics jersey. It would be a tough pill to swallow after watching Jaylen grow and mature into the player he has become today, nearly winning a title, only to punt him off into the NBA hinterlands to chase the latest shiny object (an aging superstar).

In the broader sense, I find the constant discourse and speculation (and ultimately execution) of player movement in the NBA completely exhausting to follow and keep up with, and it seems to only be trending in a more dramatic as players leap around from team to team every year and nothing feels stable or guaranteed. It's reached such a saturation point that none of it really interests me, and it makes the accomplishments of teams each year feel insignificant and not worthy of my emotional investment. The Celtics came within two games of winning the title last year, that should mean something significant? Actually no it doesn't--we are still going to shake up our entire team and chase Kevin Durant because this is the NBA world we live in.

People seem okay with that and I just feel distant and removed from that kind of investment and find myself rapidly losing interest in the NBA despite maintaining a deep love of the game itself and an appreciation of the skill and athleticism of it's individual players.

Yeah, Durant is one of my least favorite players. And I don't think he really wants to be here. If he ends up here, it will be because Boston was the last remaining chair when the music stopped playing. The way I'll feel about the Celtics + Durant in year 1 will be like how I felt about the Celtics + Kyrie in year 2. If Brad decides to pull the trigger, I'll do my best to enjoy it, and if they win the Championship, that will be great. But for a while at least, I'll feel gross. And that doesn't even start to get into the risks involved with Durant.

Cellar-Door · Aug 10, 2022

LoLsapien said:
Hey guys, I'm a little surprised no one responded to Jim's post here, but according to DARKO, doesn't it look like Jaylen could approximate Durant's value really soon? Like, potentially next year? I say this as a guy who is brand new to being anything more than a casual NBA fan. But it seems like folks here have a lot of respect for DARKO and this chart is eye-popping to me. Jaylen's ascension - according to this chart- does not indicate that his skills are plateauing. And Durant's skills, by age or injury, could begin to erode at any time, I'd think.

No for several reasons...

1. Jaylen is unlikely to continue that path, growth into the top tier is the hardest.
2. DARKO loves Jaylen way more than any other metric.
3. A chunk of the Durant decline line is when he went out with his achilles tear and returned, last year most of his performances are actually above that trend line.
4. That gap is still huge (25% higher)
5. DARKO is predictive, so it is basically saying... going forward here is the gap between these guys.

I'd also note that defense is playing a big part in this, and I generally don't think DARKO is accurately capturing either guy's defense out of team context (still the hardest thing in NBA stats to figure out). DARKO has Jaylen as much better than Durant defensively, most other metrics don't agree and have them as equivalent, if that's the case the gap is much larger.

JM3 · Aug 10, 2022

LoLsapien said:
Hey guys, I'm a little surprised no one responded to Jim's post here, but according to DARKO, doesn't it look like Jaylen could approximate Durant's value really soon? Like, potentially next year? I say this as a guy who is brand new to being anything more than a casual NBA fan. But it seems like folks here have a lot of respect for DARKO and this chart is eye-popping to me. Jaylen's ascension - according to this chart- does not indicate that his skills are plateauing. And Durant's skills, by age or injury, could begin to erode at any time, I'd think.

I mean, possibly? I think it's really unlikely, though. He definitely wasn't plateau'd before last year, but there's a cap to what he can become which is lower than what Durant is imo.

Not really sure what the turnover % stuff is about? I guess a counter to the "any metric" statement.

It's pretty easily explainable by the fact that KD is doing significantly more playmaking than either of them.

Jaylen Brown turnover% - Career 11.4%, last year 11.6%
Jayson Tatum turnover% - Career 10.9%, last year 10.4%
Kevin Durant turnover% - Career 12.5%, last year 12.9%

Jaylen Brown assist% - Career 11.6%, last year 17.9%
Jayson Tatum assist% - Career 14.9%, last year 21.1%
Kevin Durant assist% - Career 20.4%, last year 29.1%

Jimbodandy · Aug 10, 2022

Cellar-Door said:
No for several reasons...

1. Jaylen is unlikely to continue that path, growth into the top tier is the hardest.
2. DARKO loves Jaylen way more than any other metric.
3. A chunk of the Durant decline line is when he went out with his achilles tear and returned, last year most of his performances are actually above that trend line.
4. That gap is still huge (25% higher)
5. DARKO is predictive, so it is basically saying... going forward here is the gap between these guys.

I'd also note that defense is playing a big part in this, and I generally don't think DARKO is accurately capturing either guy's defense out of team context (still the hardest thing in NBA stats to figure out). DARKO has Jaylen as much better than Durant defensively, most other metrics don't agree and have them as equivalent, if that's the case the gap is much larger.

Just saw LoL's post and was going to say thanks and that I had addressed his point in the other thread already.

Your point about getting from 4DARKO to 5DARKO is a very good one. It's basically going from a top-20 player to a top-10 player, which is exceedingly hard to do. It's also fair to expect Durant to stay where he is for a while and not continue to slide (because a lot of that was injuries and self-destructive/bonkers teammates), but his days of being a 7 guy are gone. I think that it's an important reminder, while people are pants-off thinking about peak Durant. Peak Durant is gone.

Jimbodandy · Aug 10, 2022

JM3 said:
I mean, possibly? I think it's really unlikely, though. He definitely wasn't plateau'd before last year, but there's a cap to what he can become which is lower than what Durant is imo.

Not really sure what the turnover % stuff is about? I guess a counter to the "any metric" statement.

It's pretty easily explainable by the fact that KD is doing significantly more playmaking than either of them.

Jaylen Brown assist% - Career 11.6%, last year 17.9%
Jayson Tatum assist% - Career 14.9%, last year 21.1%
Kevin Durant assist% - Career 20.4%, last year 29.1%

Regarding playmaking, no doubt. I'm hardly saying that Brown is a playmaker or that Durant isn't carrying a huge offensive load.

Just pointing out that the groupthink about Jaylen's bad turnovers and ballhandling doesn't match the actual fucking data, no matter how many times some of the posters here say it. Turnover% says that his turnovers, while grotesque to behold, are in line with his peers.

TOV% - Turnover Percentage (available since the 1977-78 season in the NBA); the formula is 100 * TOV / (FGA + 0.44 * FTA + TOV). Turnover percentage is an estimate of turnovers per 100 plays.

DeJesus Built My Hotrod · Aug 10, 2022

Apparently it needs to be said explicitly - Kevin Durant is a superior basketball player to Jaylen Brown at present and likely into the immediate future. People can certainly poke holes in that with different data points but Durant is simply better.

Concerns about fit, chemistry, cost etc are all legit but the idea that Brown is even close to eclipsing Durant seems way off.

Jimbodandy · Aug 10, 2022

DeJesus Built My Hotrod said:
Apparently it needs to be said explicitly - Kevin Durant is a superior basketball player to Jaylen Brown at present and likely into the immediate future. People can certainly poke holes in that with different data points but Durant is simply better.

Concerns about fit, chemistry, cost etc are all legit but the idea that Brown is even close to eclipsing Durant seems way off.

I agree that it's unlikely that Brown passes Durant in the next couple of years, but the data doesn't say that it's impossible. People keep thinking that Durant is Peak Durant. He isn't. And frankly, Brown isn't Peak Brown yet either. And it's a 25% difference between them.

I have no beef with people disregarding all-in-one metrics for reasons. I was a hardo about the way that RPM was being thrown around here a few years ago (RPM is trash), nevermind when PER is brought up (super trash). But when CD calls out DARKO as an outlier on Brown's defense, that's an argument that DARKO perhaps overrates Brown (I disagree, but it's a good argument). When people (not you in particular) say "yeah but it's Durant and Brown, man. Doesn't match the eye test.", that's not an argument really. I say that because people still think that Durant is on Giannis's level, top-MVP type guy. That's not even the eye test. That's comparing the numbers against our collective memory of what Durant used to be. A Durant-led team just got smoked by us. Not just beaten, smoked. Peak Lebron took teams like that to the finals on the regular. Peak Durant probably could too.

JM3 · Aug 10, 2022

I mean... the Celtics won by 18 points total in a 4 game series in which still recovering KD had to play 44 minutes per game & Bruce Brown was literally the only actual wing in the rotation.

Smoked is kind of revisionist history.

I thought KD was playing at an MVP level before his injury & I would be surprised if he went to the Celtics & was remotely healthy if his Darko wasn't 6+.

DeJesus Built My Hotrod · Aug 10, 2022

Jimbodandy said:
I agree that it's unlikely that Brown passes Durant in the next couple of years, but the data doesn't say that it's impossible. People keep thinking that Durant is Peak Durant. He isn't. And frankly, Brown isn't Peak Brown yet either. And it's a 25% difference between them.

I have no beef with people disregarding all-in-one metrics for reasons. I was a hardo about the way that RPM was being thrown around here a few years ago (RPM is trash), nevermind when PER is brought up (super trash). But when CD calls out DARKO as an outlier on Brown's defense, that's an argument that DARKO perhaps overrates Brown (I disagree, but it's a good argument). When people (not you in particular) say "yeah but it's Durant and Brown, man. Doesn't match the eye test.", that's not an argument really. I say that because people still think that Durant is on Giannis's level, top-MVP type guy. That's not even the eye test. That's comparing the numbers against our collective memory of what Durant used to be. A Durant-led team just got smoked by us. Not just beaten, smoked. Peak Lebron took teams like that to the finals on the regular. Peak Durant probably could too.

This is entirely fair and to further clarify my position, which is constantly evolving, given all of the factors to consider, this isn't an easy deal to make, even if you are 100% on board with Boston receiving the best player.

If Stevens can get Durant for Brown+White+draft capital but decides against it, LFG. At this point, the trade vs a run-it-back season each offers its own appeal, even if the former makes the Cs more of a contender for the upcoming season.

PRabbit · Aug 10, 2022

I say no because I'm pretty much convinced it was depth issues at the end of the playoff rotation, not top-end talent, that cost them a title. Brad has largely addressed that with Gallo and Brogdon. I see no reason to undo that to get, while a top 10-15 guy all-time, is a player past his prime, and hope his body holds up over the 100+ game grind that's the season and playoffs.

If I were Brad I'd stand pat with what he's got.

Auger34 · Aug 10, 2022

JM3 said:
I mean... the Celtics won by 18 points total in a 4 game series in which still recovering KD had to play 44 minutes per game & Bruce Brown was literally the only actual wing in the rotation.

Smoked is kind of revisionist history.

I thought KD was playing at an MVP level before his injury & I would be surprised if he went to the Celtics & was remotely healthy if his Darko wasn't 6+.

In that series Durant didn’t impress me at all. There are a lot of very good reasons I’ve heard (Boston’s defense, Durant was worn out due to having to play so much to get to that point) but he 100% didn’t look like the second best player/dominant force I was expecting.
On his podcast Zach Lowe said that he (and several other NBA people) were calling around seeing if Durant was injured his play was so disjointed and weird for those 4 games

JM3 · Aug 10, 2022

tbb345 said:
In that series Durant didn’t impress me at all. There are a lot of very good reasons I’ve heard (Boston’s defense, Durant was worn out due to having to play so much to get to that point) but he 100% didn’t look like the second best player/dominant force I was expecting.
On his podcast Zach Lowe said that he (and several other NBA people) were calling around seeing if Durant was injured his play was so disjointed and weird for those 4 games

Yeah, he was bad. Whatever the excuses are. I don't think that's who he is as a player, though.

Would you trade Jaylen+ for Durant?

Would you trade Jaylen+ for Durant?

Yes

No

Not Sure - this is all moving too fast for me!

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