#1 overall picks do not piss off an exit interview. Jackson will be skewered even more if nothing is done and KP relationship is toast.
Woj: Porzingis May Be Available
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Still more than Boston offered. The Knicks have like 2 years to make that trade even if your hypothetical scenario comes true.
Radio silence on Celtics and KP in the last hour or so. Good or bad?
My feeling is that if C's draft JJ there's a good possibility of a trade. If it's someone else, then they keep it.
My feeling is that if C's draft JJ there's a good possibility of a trade. If it's someone else, then they keep it.
I think that's right. Strong likelihood they keep the pick and move into FA mode.
I guess she's a college student. So maybe the NBA just informs the Bucks that maybe she shouldn't do it again.
I think Phil would jump at Brown, 2018 Nets, 2018 Lakers/2019 Kings, Crowder. I certainly wouldn't offer that though.
I like where Ainge is going with trying to acquire a lottery pick this year to satisfy Phils ask of 2 lottery picks. Am guessing he is offering Minnesota Smart/Bradley for #7. Any trade of player for a pick increases cap room to sign Hayward. Forget who balked at including Horford in a KP deal (not that the Knicks want him or could fit him under the cap) but KP would serve as a replacement for Horford offensively at a much lower salary. C can be addressed with Zizic and filler until next years draft when Ayton is available.
Apparently this was the offer. I'm assuming the other lottery pick is #7 from Minnesota.
Frank Isola of the New York Daily News reported Thursday that the New York Knicks have asked the Boston Celtics for a hefty return in a potential trade for Kristaps Porzingis.
According to Isola, the Knicks asked for the No. 3 overall pick in the 2017 NBA draft, the Brooklyn Nets' first-round pick in 2018 and forwards Jaylen Brown and Jae Crowder.
Isola added that the Celtics believe the asking price is too high, although they are open to tweaking the deal to include one draft pick rather than two.
According to Isola, the Knicks asked for the No. 3 overall pick in the 2017 NBA draft, the Brooklyn Nets' first-round pick in 2018 and forwards Jaylen Brown and Jae Crowder.
Isola added that the Celtics believe the asking price is too high, although they are open to tweaking the deal to include one draft pick rather than two.
If KP would have been #1 in this draft, Zizac would have been lottery. #3, JB, JC, and Zizac for KP matches what Phil is asking for.
More or less.
More or less.
He was never serious about it. This is just Phil being Phil (read: an asshole).
He'll write a bad book in a year when he's quit/been fired that details how dysfunctional the Knicks are and explain how the last two days were inspire by The Way of the Peaceful Warrior or whatever and he was teaching Porzingis that exit interviews are nirvana and nobody is bigger than their angle in the triangle.
And Kristaps will play for two more GMs in New York before his rookie deal is up. Phil will just be a footnote amongst the many reasons that'll cause him to eventually leave New York.
You mean Zizic? I am not sure I would give all those pieces up for Porzingis, honestly. Crowder is quite valuable.
What's the best show to watch? Woj? ESPN? Is KOC for the Ringer doing anything? I've become a huge fan of his this year.
Wonder if that means they are no longer after #7? I would Tatum +Monk/Issac/DSJ/Collins would be nice.
It would require moving on from Avery or Jae I think in order to make room for a max? I wonder if that type of move would alienate a FA looking to win ASAP.
Wait til next year.
Or next week, I'm not sure which.
Sardines-on-Kristaps, a very Baltic-Canadian breakfast.
Danny Ainge on @985TheSportsHub on Porzingis talks: "I don't believe NY was genuinely going to move him. Quick conversation there." #Celtics
Returning to this for a sec:
*sigh* Yes Phil, 4 years of Porzingis-on-a-rookie-contract would be worth a hell of a lot, certainly the 1st overall. You get 4 years of salary-advantaged control with a draft pick. But right now, you're only able to offer 2 years of POARC. After which he gets paid a max deal that makes his net value to a team considerably less, given that salary is a limited resource.
2 years on rookie scale of a guy who is already a star = 4 years on rookie scale of a guy who might be a star.
That sounds like an assertion that could be supported or refuted based on comparing Porzingis's 4.5 WS rate last year (= 9.0 over next 2 years) vs average win shares for #1 picks, totalled across their first 4 years in the league.
I'll do a few, these are total WS over their first 4 years for #1 picks:
2013 - Bennett - 0.5 (4 different teams in 4 years, wow)
2012 - Davis - 37.7
2011 - Irving - 26.4
2010 - Wall - 18.2
2009 - Griffin - 41.9
2008 - Rose - 30.0
2007 - Oden - 6.8 (oft-injured, of course)
2006 - Bargnani - 11.4
2005 - Bogut - 17.0
2004 - Howard - 38.4
2003 - James - 49.3
2002 - Yao - 39.3
Average: 26.4. Or just under three times what Porzingis would deliver with two more seasons exactly like this past one.
Now, there's an improvement curve of course, but in looking at these guys (admittedly a small sample size), their WS went up year 2 - 3 as often as it went down. If there are more general statistics on that I'd be interested to learn them, but I'd say the median projection for Porzingis is for him to stay exactly as productive as he is right now.
I'll do a few, these are total WS over their first 4 years for #1 picks:
2013 - Bennett - 0.5 (4 different teams in 4 years, wow)
2012 - Davis - 37.7
2011 - Irving - 26.4
2010 - Wall - 18.2
2009 - Griffin - 41.9
2008 - Rose - 30.0
2007 - Oden - 6.8 (oft-injured, of course)
2006 - Bargnani - 11.4
2005 - Bogut - 17.0
2004 - Howard - 38.4
2003 - James - 49.3
2002 - Yao - 39.3
Average: 26.4. Or just under three times what Porzingis would deliver with two more seasons exactly like this past one.
Now, there's an improvement curve of course, but in looking at these guys (admittedly a small sample size), their WS went up year 2 - 3 as often as it went down. If there are more general statistics on that I'd be interested to learn them, but I'd say the median projection for Porzingis is for him to stay exactly as productive as he is right now.
I am not sure Porzingis is actually a net plus right now. He obviously has huge potential once he figures things out as people have already mentioned. But I think you are looking at this the wrong way. The NBA is not the NFL - rookie contracts are usually not really great bargains, since young players are generally bad, even ones who develop into great players.
The real value in rookie contracts is the Bird rights. If a player becomes a star in his rookie contract, the team that drafted him has a huge leg up in re-signing him during his prime years, and can go over the cap in order to do so.
The real value in rookie contracts is the Bird rights. If a player becomes a star in his rookie contract, the team that drafted him has a huge leg up in re-signing him during his prime years, and can go over the cap in order to do so.
If my wife looks like that at 55, I will think I've died and gone to heaven. And let's bear in mind that Jackson is 71 and rocks a goatee.
This is one of the craziest things written on this site in a while. He is already one of the best interior defenders in the league as shown by that Nate Silver chart I posted upthread, and he can cover the perimeter surprisingly well considering his ridiculous height. Offensively, he was playing with two of the biggest ballhogs in the league in Melo and Rose which kept down his numbers. He needs to develop his passing and rebounding skills some still but he is a freaking great player even if he doesn't improve one bit, which he likely will since he doesn't even turn 22 until August.
I'm not trying to convince anyone of anything, I highly doubt he'll be traded, just couldn't let that statement sit unanswered. If I were a GM, I'd offer a ton for him.
I think the idea he isn't a net positive today is silly. However, it's also worth noting that the analytics are somewhat less impressive than the hype, too. I am a KP fan and think he's quite a valuable asset, to be clear. But (just to pick one metric--imperfect but useful) he was not even in the top 50 players in RPM last year. Knicks fans pretty uniformly overrate what he is today, imo.
Certainly, that level of production is valuable, but as yet nowhere near the price reportedly being sought for him. I expect some of the things he's good at---rim protection, spreading court on offense, etc--are less effectively measured by RPM, and he's so young we all expect a lot of improvement (at least, if he stays healthy). So the point is not 'he's teh suck' at all, but rather that while I think he may well show himself to be a top 10-15 guy, he hasn't come all that close yet either and we should remember that too.
There's truth there, but also he is playing in a totally dysfunctional organization with ball hog teammates, so the numbers can only tell you so much. They have no idea as a team what they're doing on offense (Triangle? No triangle? Why are we even trying the triangle in 2017?) and defensively they were even worse, bringing in Rambis mid-season and I believe changing the entire system they wanted to play at least twice during the season.
(FWIW, I am much more of a Porzingis fan than a Knicks fan these days, because fuck James Dolan and Phil Jackson. When this whole pre-draft soap opera was going on, I asked myself if I'd root for Porzingis if he went to Boston, which is seriously like you guys rooting for the Yankees, and I actually thought I might but I hoped it wouldn't come to that.)
(FWIW, I am much more of a Porzingis fan than a Knicks fan these days, because fuck James Dolan and Phil Jackson. When this whole pre-draft soap opera was going on, I asked myself if I'd root for Porzingis if he went to Boston, which is seriously like you guys rooting for the Yankees, and I actually thought I might but I hoped it wouldn't come to that.)
Knicks-Celtics is nothing like MFY-Red Sox, though. When I used to go to Celtics games at the Garden in the '80s ("Bird Pak:" 16 tickets for $96!) there was a crazy Cs fan named Fonzie in the second balcony who told my Knicks fan friend: "I'm a Knicks fan, you're a Knicks fan, everyone's a Knicks fan!" (He also always used to say "put in Hondo!!!!," for anyone on here who may remember that era...)
TLDR: bolting the lolKnicks for the Celtics is really not a bridge too far. Do it, Jon Abbey!
You are right, its going too far to say he's not a good player right now. But I stand by the broader point, which is that you give up the farm for Porzingis essentially for the player he can become, for the bird rights. Which is not a hugely insightful point.
But lets not get carried away. He obviously has huge offensive potential, but as others has mentioned currently employs his skills in a rather inefficient way. If you don't like box score measures like RPM or win shares, per 82games the Knicks offense was slightly better with him off the court last year. Having said that I definitely agree that he's being held back by the dysfunction of the team.
As you mentioned he is already a good defender. The Knicks defense was three and a half points better with him on the floor, and just watching him you can see the activity and length he brings is a huge plus to a team defense. But he's not a good rebounder for his size right now. I am sure this will grow as his frame and ass fill out.
I would also like to point out that Lamarcus Aldridge shows up on that 538 article graphic on good shot defenders. Link.
They would need to get Porzingis first, and that seems highly unlikely. Otherwise, I will stick to being a general NBA fan until James Dolan chokes on his own vomit.
RPM is an on/off stat, though heavily modified.
BPM is a box score stat. KP's bpm this year was 0.2, about halfway between Smart (-0.3) and Olynyk (0.7)
If you're a WS/48 person, KP was .1, about the same as Tyler Zeller (.094)
If you're a VORP person, he was 1.2, a little better than Smart (1.0)
You can argue with all of the advanced stats. They all have some holes. But, this is not a star player right now.
Jimmy Butler, by comparison, bpm 6.9, WS/48 .236, VORP 6.3.
Of course you can say box score stats over favor wings (my retort would be they merely demonstrate how important wings are to your team, but horses for courses). They certainly favor usage which is the most important consideration when looking at them. I suppose as a 2nd year guy on a team with Carmelo we can imagine why KP wouldn't get as much usage, but these numbers still kind of lag. Here are some star big men:
Anthony Davis: 3.7, .195, 3.9
Rudy Gobert: 5.8, .250, 5.4
Plenty of reason for everyone to be excited about Porzingis. And sure maybe you fit him into Stevens system and he's amazeballs right away. But I think people are getting carried away with his actual production on the court so far.
Anyway, with Jackson apparently fired, I can't imagine Porzingis won't be a Knick for at the least the near future.
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The biggest argument in favor of Porzingis in light of all those advanced numbers is that -- for all their efforts to isolate individual performance -- they are still fairly dependent on your teammates. That doesn't mean that superlative players can't stand out despite crappy teammates (KG in Minnesota!) but it matters none the less.
Except he was poor by RPM which is trying to measure exactly this.
I'm not trying to be a dick here. But people are rejecting on/off numbers too.
By every measure except "I've watched the games and he's a fucking dominant player fuck you" KP has not been an exceptionally productive player in the NBA thus far in his career. If you want to argue about his age and growth, his skills and their fit for the NBA, etc. etc. fine. It's all good. But right now, if this is as good as he gets, he's not a star. He's Kelly Olynyk with longer arms and a worse shot.
I remain a little big puzzled why the Celtics do not appear to have Butler ahead of at least George (Hayward comes 'free' so I get that). But, it seems they prefer George---that may well be about spacing and fit with Stevens' offense.
I think it's as simple as not wanting to give up either this year's pick or next year's BK pick in addition to Crowder/Bradley/Brown and so on.