Winter Meetings/Rumor Thread

[rotundlio]

I'm shocked that you're all so down on Heyward. Dude was 6th in outfield fWAR last year, behind A.J. Pollock and four MVP candidates. He outdid McCutchen.

He's also twenty-six, and his contact rate and batting eye are both trending hugely in the right direction. I suspect he has more power than he's let on, as well. He hit 27 bombs in 2012, and his groundball rate from last year looks like a massive aberration.

I actually really like this deal for Theo, et al. $23 million is about what he'd make as a league-average pitcher.

 

[nattysez]

Heyman and Rosenthal just tweeted that Heyward has opt-outs after years 3 and 4 if he hits certain PA numbers.

 

[mikeford]

Even with this deal (and Lackey and Zobrist), the Cubs only have 128 committed to salary this year, and 104 next year. This is an organization the spent 142 million on payroll in 2010. What else should they have done with the money? Smart to strike now while Rizzo, Bryant, Schwarber, Russell, etc. are cheap and can offset deals like this.

Assemble a bullpen, probably.

 

[soxfan121]

Heyman and Rosenthal just tweeted that Heyward has opt-outs after years 3 and 4 if he hits certain PA numbers.

TWO opt-outs?

Theo is twice the Team President that Dombrowski is, pulling off a move that brilliant.

 

[rotundlio]

Assemble a bullpen, probably.

They were 8th in bullpen ERA last year. 6th in xFIP, 7th in SIERA.

I agree though that they should be targeting firemen.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

TWO opt-outs?

Theo is twice the Team President that Dombrowski is, pulling off a move that brilliant.

Rosenthal is reporting that the opt-outs trigger based on plate appearances, so that's at least a little bit different. However, if he is at a point where he wants to opt-out, chances are, he'll have played enough to trigger the opt-out anyway. Heyward on the market again at age 29 or 30, especially if he is productive for the Cubs in the interim...he could still get a deal with a $200M+ total value.

Ken Rosenthal@Ken_Rosenthal
Source: Heyward can opt out of deal with #Cubs after year three or year four if he exceeds certain plate appearance thresholds.

 

[moondog80]

Assemble a bullpen, probably.

I'll bet they're not done.

 

[pokey_reese]

I think Heyward is a very good to great player who does everything well but isn't viewed as elite because some of his stronger skills are things like having a Deweyish arm and really good baserunning. If he isn't worth $20m+ in this market at his age then I don't think many players are. If the Sox had a 26 year old player who put up a .350+ OBP with some power and baserunning while playing plus plus defense over the last three years we'd all be gushing over him.

Isn't this exactly what we will be going through with Mookie in 5 years?

 

[glennhoffmania]

Isn't this exactly what we will be going through with Mookie in 5 years?

Except for the ridiculously great arm, yeah pretty much.

 

[Darnell's Son]

Except for the ridiculously great arm, yeah pretty much.

Mookie might have more power to make up for that.

 

[MikeM]

Why would front loading the contract make it better for the Cubs?

Because outside the immediate short term upgrade appeal being offered, Heyward is not the type of player you go making 8 year/$20m per+ contract commitments on imo. Regardless of the age factor here.

Like Moondog pointed out, I'll like this deal more if it ends up being framed in manner that suggests Theo was simply willing to overpay in the short term (upping the risk of an opt out in the process) to min/max their World Series chances right now. If Heyward is still potentially on the books for $25m/per 5+ years from now...meh.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Not at all surprising on Heyward. Unless you expected him to easily top $200MM.

 

[soxhop411]

“@Ken_Rosenthal: Sources: #Nationals bid $200M for Heyward. Another team, believed to be #STLCards, also was at $200M. Heyward took less to play for #Cubs.”

 

[IpswichSox]

Cardinals must feel like they've been kicked in the teeth this offseason, between Price and now Heyward (especially with Heyward going to the Cubs).

Also it's interesting that the Cardinals apparently offered more for Heyward than they did for Price. I assume it's not that they valued Heyward more but that they were reacting to the market. And still lost out.

 

[koufax32]

Because outside the immediate short term upgrade appeal being offered, Heyward is not the type of player you go making 8 year/$20m per+ contract commitments on imo. Regardless of the age factor here.

Like Moondog pointed out, I'll like this deal more if it ends up being framed in manner that suggests Theo was simply willing to overpay in the short term (upping the risk of an opt out in the process) to min/max their World Series chances right now. If Heyward is still potentially on the books for $25m/per 5+ years from now...meh.

Additionally, it encourages him to opt out in three years. If he gets say $25m per for the first three his yearly salary for the remaining five would not be as high, making it much more likely he could get better than $22m per over that remaining time. I imagine that it's easier to develop a multi year plan when you have a higher (albeit marginally) certainty that that salary commitment will be off the books in three years.

 

[mikeford]

Cardinals must feel like they've been kicked in the teeth this offseason, between Price and now Heyward (especially with Heyward going to the Cubs).

Also it's interesting that the Cardinals apparently offered more for Heyward than they did for Price. I assume it's not that they valued Heyward more but that they were reacting to the market. And still lost out.

You left out Lackey too

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Also it's interesting that the Cardinals apparently offered more for Heyward than they did for Price. I assume it's not that they valued Heyward more but that they were reacting to the market. And still lost out.

Big factor to consider is the years. Price was at 7 years (at age 30) and Heyward presumably was an 8 year offer (at age 26). While the overall dollars may have been more for Heyward, Price was the more expensive player in their view.

 

[nattysez]

Also, we don't know whether those other teams were offering opt outs, which seem to be becoming very fashionable.

 

[soxhop411]

Jeff Passan ‏@JeffPassan 3s3 seconds ago
Source: Jason Heyward turned down three offers higher than the $184M he took from the Cubs, including two of $200M+.

So WSH, STL and ?

 

[tims4wins]

Duh, Mystery Team

 

[jon abbey]

Angels.

 

[Al Zarilla]

Heyward has foot speed, and it plays into his defensive prowess, but he also has great instincts and a cannon arm. His range isn't dependent on elite foot speed the way someone like Crawford or Ellsbury are. He's much more in the mold of a JBJ, who isn't a burner by any stretch (nor is he a slew-foot) but gets great jumps and covers a lot of ground by taking proper angles. I think those kinds of defensive skills age a lot better than pure speed.

That's a damn fine post, and I like the comp (defensively) with JBJ.

 

[DJnVa]

Jeff Passan ‏@JeffPassan 3s3 seconds ago
Source: Jason Heyward turned down three offers higher than the $184M he took from the Cubs, including two of $200M+.

So WSH, STL and ?

So those tweets from baseball's best fans calling him greedy are...wrong.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

That's a damn fine post, and I like the comp (defensively) with JBJ.

Or Dwight Evans

 

[Pilgrim]

It's incredible how many teams have offered someone ~200 million and been turned down. I think Cueto is going to be fine.

 

[IpswichSox]

You left out Lackey too

Yeah you're right, and it's a double-whammy: Subtraction from St. Louis and addition to their rivals.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

Jeff Passan ‏@JeffPassan 3s3 seconds ago
Source: Jason Heyward turned down three offers higher than the $184M he took from the Cubs, including two of $200M+.

So WSH, STL and ?

I'm sure the MLBPA is thrilled, as are his brother outfielders.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

Cubs payroll: (allocated to account for games being played by the front office in assigning money to years...similar to what happened this year with Lackey's contract)

2013: $121,441,325
2014: $130,442,894
2015: $140,383,667

2016: ?

 

[Lowrielicious]

I'm sure the MLBPA is thrilled, as are his brother outfielders.

Without details of whether there was an opt out, let alone two, in any of those other offers it is impossible to say he turned down better offers. More guaranteed money sure, but there is a bit more to it these days.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

I'm on my phone, but there was a recent article that suggested he will be worth over $300M over the next eight years. I believe it was on SI, I'll look when I get home. Not saying I agree with that, but $200M offers I don't think should shock so many.

Edit: Here's the link http://www.si.com/mlb/2015/12/01/jason-heyward-free-agency-whats-he-really-worth

All depends on how much you think a win should be valued at and how much weight your put into the defensive component of WAR.

 

[MikeM]

So those tweets from baseball's best fans calling him greedy are...wrong.

Well, we kinda need to hear the specifics behind those $200m offers before praising Heyward for "taking less" here imo.

If the other $200m offers were all for 10 years I'd of left the $16m on the table too.

 

[DJnVa]

Well, we kinda need to hear the specifics behind those $200m offers before praising Heyward for "taking less" here imo.

If the other $200m offers were all for 10 years I'd of left the $16m on the table too.

Well, the articles tonight were saying that he took less to go to Chicago so I'm okay with praising him.

And frankly, with the tweets I'm referring to, being called greedy was the nicest thing said.

 

[JakeRae]

Well, the articles tonight were saying that he took less to go to Chicago so I'm okay with praising him.

And frankly, with the tweets I'm referring to, being called greedy was the nicest thing said.

If the other offers didn't include an opt out 3 years in, they really weren't worth more. That opt-out is probably worth at least $25 million to Heyward. (The second opt-out has some marginal value, but nowhere near as much as the first, I'd guess it's probably worth closer to $10 million.) That puts the actual value of the deal at closer to $220 million, from his perspective, which may very well be the highest bid he received. I'm not saying he is greedy, but I'm also unwilling to assume he took anything other than the best offer on the table absent clear evidence to the contrary.

 

[DJnVa]

Sigh. Go look at this twitter account: https://twitter.com/bestfansstlouis I was making a tongue in cheek comment about the assholes calling him a "greedy fa$%ot".

My point was that the fans that thought he was just doing it for the money weren't really taking a nuanced view of the opt-out and potential future earnings but were racist and homophobic assholes.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Aw damnit DrewDawg, we could have ruined another thread by blathering on about opt outs, repeating things said ten times already, not understanding basic premises and talking in circles for pages. And you went and fucked it up.

Nice work, a hole. Thanks for ruining Christmas.