Winter Meetings 2018: Rumors and Speculation

chawson

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Marginal wins to edge out the division and avoid the WC must have some significant value
I’d think so. Preferable here at least.

OTOH, winning the division also likely lines us up with the Astros again, because the Indians will beat up on the three teams in the Central playing .400 ball. And we have Sale.

Obviously there will be surprises, but when was the last time there was this much disparity in the American League?

Playoff-bound: NYY, CLE, HOU, BOS, LAA
.500-ish: TOR, TEX, MIN, SEA
Rebuilding: TB, BAL, KC, CWS, DET, OAK

The only team in that middle bracket to finish above .500 in ‘17 was the Twins, and they have a rotation of Ervin Santana and a box of rubber bands. Right or wrong, DD’s projections probably see us with a seven-game margin of error of not making the playoffs, and can afford to sit tight.

Why he’s not shelling out money for a playoff bullpen right now is a different question.
 
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DeadlySplitter

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is it outrageous that the player enjoys playing the game, even if he sucks at it (the outfield part), maybe because he doesn't acknowledge he sucks at it, and isn't thinking far ahead at 30 years old? I find it believable JD is looking for a full-time outfield gig if he can. or am I falling for Boras' trap?
 

sackamano

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I understand Martinez's limitations as an OF, but it's very difficult to believe that the Red Sox are going to give him $30 million a year to be a fulltime DH, which would amount to nearly twice as much per season as they ever paid David Ortiz.
 

Sampo Gida

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is it outrageous that the player enjoys playing the game, even if he sucks at it (the outfield part), maybe because he doesn't acknowledge he sucks at it, and isn't thinking far ahead at 30 years old? I find it believable JD is looking for a full-time outfield gig if he can. or am I falling for Boras' trap?
Boras may be trying to sneak an opt out in there and playing OF would maximize his value should he exercise it. That would seem to mean his offers to date are short on years and AAV, perhaps because his durabilty has been questioned and there is doubt he can duplicate last years numbers
 

tonyarmasjr

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is it outrageous that the player enjoys playing the game, even if he sucks at it (the outfield part), maybe because he doesn't acknowledge he sucks at it, and isn't thinking far ahead at 30 years old? I find it believable JD is looking for a full-time outfield gig if he can. or am I falling for Boras' trap?
No, that's pretty much how almost every baseball player I've ever come across thinks. Does Boras want to use that to leverage more money for his client? Sure. But he's not making it up. And maybe Martinez would take $20M less to be a full-time outfielder. I'm sure I don't know that (though I'll guess sure there are some who will profess to "absolutely know" his inner thoughts).

Martinez would also become the de facto 4th OFer. Chris Young started 41 and 53 G the last two years. The positional flexibility of the current guys should allow Martinez to play strictly in LF.
 

Hawk68

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is it outrageous that the player enjoys playing the game, even if he sucks at it (the outfield part), maybe because he doesn't acknowledge he sucks at it, and isn't thinking far ahead at 30 years old? I find it believable JD is looking for a full-time outfield gig if he can. or am I falling for Boras' trap?
This is a great question - and the core of why the Hot Stove League is as much a part of Baseball for me as Spring Training, Opening Day and the World Series.

We are in the season where agents, players and owners strategize to transfer more than half a billion dollars to seek advantage.

The media is filled with baseless speculation, planted stories from all sides and sometimes carries a germ of truth in a spectrum of noise.

In short, everything with a quote is released to gain negotiating position. Some things anomynous are planted for similar reason. And the media are straphangers in the process - and willing to go far to maintain their employment.
 

Reggie's Racquet

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This is a great question - and the core of why the Hot Stove League is as much a part of Baseball for me as Spring Training, Opening Day and the World Series.

We are in the season where agents, players and owners strategize to transfer more than half a billion dollars to seek advantage.

The media is filled with baseless speculation, planted stories from all sides and sometimes carries a germ of truth in a spectrum of noise.

In short, everything with a quote is released to gain negotiating position. Some things anomynous are planted for similar reason. And the media are straphangers in the process - and willing to go far to maintain their employment.
Sounds like Congress and most of American society. After all baseball is America's pastime.
 

soxhop411

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Just a hunch, but I think the sex will sign someone by COB Monday.


Edit: SOX not Sex.
 
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Snodgrass'Muff

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Where it's worth remembering he hasn't played since 2014, strictly RF/DH since then.
How is this all that relevant? He'd be moving to the less difficult corner outfield position and it's not like he has no experience in left. He's played in 282 games there.

It's not like they moved him to right because he could no longer play left. Hell, he hasn't even spent more than a handful of games at DH in the last two seasons. He's a bad defender in right, no doubt but he could be passable in a small OF like Fenway if necessary. At least for a season or two (which happens to be how long their contention window is).
 

Adrian's Dome

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Why he’s not shelling out money for a playoff bullpen right now is a different question.
Because Kimbrel, Smith, Thornburg, and Kelly IS a playoff bullpen. Could perhaps use a LOOGY but those aren't essential, expensive, or particularly difficult to find. It's a non-priority at the moment.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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If Hanley is raking, and Kimbrel repeats last years performance, chances are the Sox are on pace for another 90+ wins and they will be far from sellers.
That's surely possible.... but I can imagine plenty of scenarios with Hanley hitting around .800 OPS and the team on course for 80 wins... even with the rest of the team playing well.
Your response here didn't really "respond" to my (and several others) point about sitting out this offseason. Time is ticking on the core.... should the team "go all in" and strap itself to JDM and likely a 6 year $30M/year bite or should the team hold off.... try to unload at the deadline... build up some assets and shed some payroll and then go all in for Harper (or Machado) next year? Would signing JDM at that price prevent resigning Sale (and if Price has a good season and opts out can we replace him for cheaper)? I'm starting to lean towards sitting out the JDM sweepstakes... unloading at midseason if it's looking like we're a borderline playoff team (please no more bumps in the first round).... then retooling for next year
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Worries seem to be running high, with Santana off the board, and now Boras saber-rattling about JDM wanting to keep playing bad defense.

So I’d just like to take this time to remind everyone that Miguel Cabrera is still available.

Nothing to fear.
 

E5 Yaz

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Your Cafardo nugget for today

I’ve been getting a lot of e-mails from fans who say they don’t want the Red Sox dealing with Scott Boras because he’ll make Boston sign J.D. Martinez and Eric Hosmer to contracts that the team will regret later. So what do you do, just punt?
He also posits trading Bogaerts, ERod or Pomeranz, plus Chavis and Travis to Baltimore for one year of Machado.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2017/12/16/manny-machado-should-red-sox-primary-target/s1qRIuc6ys1V54f4KphkEK/story.html
 

SouthernBoSox

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Who other than Arizona is even considering a 7 year deal with JDM? If they don't free up the money then I don't really see the market. Patience is needed.
 

sean1562

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DD should just not engage on this until 2018. If someone wants to give him 7/220, let them. We will meet you if that doesn’t exist
 

crow216

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Who other than Arizona is even considering a 7 year deal with JDM? If they don't free up the money then I don't really see the market. Patience is needed.
That's not really the issue, there only needs to be one. You shouldn't be asking what other teams are willing to go to 7 years. You should be asking how many more teams are interested if the price drops to anything hopeful. JDM at 6/125 probably has 10 suitors. JDM at 7/200 does not.
 

InsideTheParker

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Yes. You're misreading it
Can you explain what it means when it lists the positions per appearances and so many say OF? (Sorry for being obtuse, but I just don't get it.)
He played RF for the Indians. He never played LF in the Bigs until he came to Boston.
So, if he played RF, he had no idea where LF was? I assumed that Mr. Asterisk meant that he was DH'ing. My bad, I guess.
 

DJnVa

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I understand Martinez's limitations as an OF, but it's very difficult to believe that the Red Sox are going to give him $30 million a year to be a fulltime DH, which would amount to nearly twice as much per season as they ever paid David Ortiz.
Salaries jump too quickly to make that comparison.
 

Clears Cleaver

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Because Kimbrel, Smith, Thornburg, and Kelly IS a playoff bullpen. Could perhaps use a LOOGY but those aren't essential, expensive, or particularly difficult to find. It's a non-priority at the moment.
Is this sarcasm or stupidity? Kelly has been low leverage his entire career. Thornburg might never pitch effectively again, we have no clue. Smith has pitched a handful of largely meaningless innings the last two years. And Kimbrell again sucked in his one big playoff game opportunity last year.
 

Ford Frick's Asterisk

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Can you explain what it means when it lists the positions per appearances and so many say OF? (Sorry for being obtuse, but I just don't get it.)

So, if he played RF, he had no idea where LF was? I assumed that Mr. Asterisk meant that he was DH'ing. My bad, I guess.
It was pointed out that moving JD Martinez to LF might be an issue because he hasn't played the position in 3 years, but that positional move is nothing new for the Red Sox. I was pointing out that Manny Ramirez was a terrible defensive player and had absolutely no experience in LF before signing with Boston. Because of Fenway's dimensions, Boston will play its worst outfielder in the opposite corner than most other teams.

*
 

Dr Manhattan

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Oct 9, 2017
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feel free to point out if its a stupid question, but are there scenarios where the MFYs can still make a play for Harper next year? I'd always assumed they would be splashing out to get him, but could they have Stanton, Judge, Harper (and Machado?) without seriously messing up their finances for a long time.
As others have said, it feels like overpaying for JDM would be a mistake if it was an alternative to waiting out and having the front seat in getting Harper on board
 

Puffy

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Now that Adrian Gonzalez is a free agent, I wonder if there might be a fit on a one-year contract. He's obviously in decline, but he was solid in 2015 and ok in 2016. Perhaps there is some potential bounce back after an injury plagued 2017. He's obviously not the solution to our power problems, but maybe he could be in the mix as part of the solution.
 

soxhop411

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Now that Adrian Gonzalez is a free agent, I wonder if there might be a fit on a one-year contract. He's obviously in decline, but he was solid in 2015 and ok in 2016. Perhaps there is some potential bounce back after an injury plagued 2017. He's obviously not the solution to our power problems, but maybe he could be in the mix as part of the solution.
He would never come back here.
 

E5 Yaz

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brunansky

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Well you can screatch the AGon idea. Rosenthal says he's just been dealt to the Braves in a package for Matt Kemp

 

SouthernBoSox

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That's not really the issue, there only needs to be one. You shouldn't be asking what other teams are willing to go to 7 years. You should be asking how many more teams are interested if the price drops to anything hopeful. JDM at 6/125 probably has 10 suitors. JDM at 7/200 does not.
I'm not sure how what I posted and what you replied are different? If the Red Sox are the only team even in the ballpark then they don't need to outbid themselves.
 

E5 Yaz

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feel free to point out if its a stupid question, but are there scenarios where the MFYs can still make a play for Harper next year? I'd always assumed they would be splashing out to get him, but could they have Stanton, Judge, Harper (and Machado?) without seriously messing up their finances for a long time.
Cafardo repeats speculation he heard at the meetings:

You hear a lot of stuff at the Winter Meetings. Here’s one rumor told to me by a longtime, major force in the baseball world. It involves the Yankees and Giancarlo Stanton. The story goes that after 2018, the Yankees deal Stanton to the Dodgers and sign Bryce Harper. Your first reaction is, “Wow! Never happen.” Then you start to think about it. Stanton is an LA kid. The Dodgers didn’t have great interest in Stanton this offseason, but perhaps by the end of next year? The Yankees have always coveted Harper and his lefthanded stroke at Yankee Stadium. It starts to make more sense, doesn’t it?
http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2017/12/16/manny-machado-should-red-sox-primary-target/s1qRIuc6ys1V54f4KphkEK/story.html